AHC: Gothic Dobruja

[Hvalrossen]

With a pod in 500 have Dobruja become and/or stay Gothic speaking.

How likely is it that the Gothic language survive the Slavic expansion, why did it not happen OTL and how can it happen ATL?

Emperor Valens (r. 364–378) settled Goths in Moesia and planned to use them for protection.[citation needed] In 382, the Thervingi received land in Moesia by treaty with Roman Emperor Theodosius I.[1]

In the 460s, the Thracian Goths were recognized foederati (barbarian military aid to the Romans) of the Eastern Roman Empire, and seem to have prospered.[2] They had an annual subsidy, and some influence due to the proximity of Thrace to Constantinople.[2] In 471, the Thracian Goths under Theodoric Strabo revolted after fearing they would be removed, Emperor Leo having come under the influence of his son-in-law, general Zeno.[2] Two years later the Pannonian Goths (Ostrogoths) under Theodemir decided to move into Thrace, presumably wanting to share the benefits of the Thracian Goths.[2] Leo made agreements with both Gothic groups, settling the Goths under Theodemir in Macedonia and renewing Strabo's subsidy and elevating him to magister militium.[2] Zeno succeeded Leo after his death in 474, while Strabo supported a coup staged by Leo's widow to put her brother Basiliscus on the throne; however, Zeno won back power in 476 with his Isaurian troops.[2]

In 476/77, Zeno allied himself with Theodoric Strabo's rival, Theoderic the Great or Theoderic the Amal (r. 474–526), the successor of Theodemir, and ordered him to attack Strabo. The leader of the Thracian Goths sent an embassy to the Byzantine emperor, offering peace and blaming the Amal. Zeno believed that this offering was hiding further conspiracies, and obtained that the Byzantine senate and army declare Strabo a public enemy. Zeno planned to have the two Theoderics attack each other. He sent the Amal against Strabo, with the promise of a huge East Roman force as reinforcement (478). The Ostrogoths under king Theoderic advanced as far as Marcianopolis in Thrace in 478.[3] The Moesian Goths prepared to cross the Balkan mountains (Sondis), and were then told that their Roman gold awaited south of the mountain.[3] Theoderic the Amal did not find the Roman reinforcement army he expected, but Theoderic Strabo's army instead, in a strongly fortified camp. Strabo provoked the Amal, running in front of the Moesian Gothic camp and claiming that the leadership of the Amal had reduced the Goths to fighting each other, and only for the Roman gain, to have none of the wealth for which they had moved from their territories. With this speech recalling the common interest of the Goths, Strabo forced the Amal to ask for peace. The two Theodorics agreed to put forward a joint request to the Emperor, in order to extend Moesian Gothic territory to the south.[4]

According to Jordanes (fl. 551), the Moesian Goths were taught to write by Ulfilas (311–383).[5] They were, according to him, still present in Moesia, "numerous, but poor and unwarlike, rich in nothing save flocks of various kids and pasture-lands for cattle and forests for wood ... Most of them drink milk".[5]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thracian_Goths

Very few secondary sources make reference to the Gothic language after about 800. In De incrementis ecclesiae Christianae (840–842), Walafrid Strabo, a Frankish monk who lived in Swabia, speaks of a group of monks, who reported that even now certain peoples in Scythia (Dobruja), especially around Tomis spoke a sermo Theotiscus ('Germanic language'), the language of the Gothic translation of the Bible, and they used such a liturgy.[8]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gothic_language#History_and_evidence

 

[Ivoshafen]

For the most part, Slavic expansion is going to ruin most Gothic holdouts across Eastern Europe, and without a major POD you aren't stopping the Slavs, I doubt you could get the entire area to be Gothic speaking solely, but you have a decent change of getting a mixed population, maybe with Gothic speaking cities dotting the coasts and town in the countrysides, but I cant think of a POD ATM that would help that in specific. Give me some time to think on it

 

[The Professor]

One way to have Gothic survive is something similar that happened with Romanian/Vlach - roughly a highland lowland split with regular migration between isolated groups. Then regionalism and nationalism can promote concentration in one area.
Of course just as with Vlach there will be a lot of Slavic influence. OTL they've been purging most of those and replacing them with primarily French derived ones. TTL "Modern Gothic" would probably do something similar with German and known "Old Gothic"'

 

[Ivoshafen]

One way to have Gothic survive is something similar that happened with Romanian/Vlach - roughly a highland lowland split with regular migration between isolated groups. Then regionalism and nationalism can promote concentration in one area.
Of course just as with Vlach there will be a lot of Slavic influence. OTL they've been purging most of those and replacing them with primarily French derived ones. TTL "Modern Gothic" would probably do something similar with German and known "Old Gothic"'

I quite like this idea actually, I could see Modern Gothic turning out to be quite similar to how Crimean Gothic turned out, which surprisingly, struck a lot of chords with modern day Low German, but that could've been the fact that the researcher looking into it was Flemish and may have had a bias with how he transcribed the sounds/he interviewed either A: A Crimean Greek who's second language was Gothic, or B: A Goth who had heavy Greek influence on his phonetics.

I personally say the Gothic script is out the window, I can't see it hanging on, we could eventually see Gothic written with a *Cyrillic script, which could be quite neat.

 

[Jürgen]

Dobruja are pretty much the worst place for the Goths to settle (and they likely did in OTL) in the term of long term survival. It lies in the middle of a major migration highway and have seen several complete population replacement.

 

[Hvalrossen]

I personally say the Gothic script is out the window, I can't see it hanging on, we could eventually see Gothic written with a *Cyrillic script, which could be quite neat.

This is assuming that the Goths remain for the most part illiterate. What if the all or some Gothic speakers had a literate tradition?

Dobruja are pretty much the worst place for the Goths to settle (and they likely did in OTL) in the term of long term survival. It lies in the middle of a major migration highway and have seen several complete population replacement.

Could a strong defense system defend Dobruja?

For the most part, Slavic expansion is going to ruin most Gothic holdouts across Eastern Europe, and without a major POD you aren't stopping the Slavs, I doubt you could get the entire area to be Gothic speaking solely, but you have a decent change of getting a mixed population, maybe with Gothic speaking cities dotting the coasts and town in the countrysides, but I cant think of a POD ATM that would help that in specific. Give me some time to think on it

Could a 'great man' be enough to resist intrusions?

 

[The Professor]

This is assuming that the Goths remain for the most part illiterate. What if the all or some Gothic speakers had a literate tradition?

A literate tradition would bring them under strong influence of the Roman or Constantinopolitan churches. If the former then Latin will likely take over like it did elsewhere.

Could a strong defense system defend Dobruja?

I think they'd survive better if there wasn't.

 

[Jürgen]

This is assuming that the Goths remain for the most part illiterate. What if the all or some Gothic speakers had a literate tradition?

I think it mostly given that surviving Gothic country would keep their old alphabet, unless they’re reduced to near irrelevance (like the Crimean Goths.

Could a strong defense system defend Dobruja?

Not really, a small Gothic remnant population could dwell in the Danube delta, but honestly the region are almost empty even today. It’s simply a easy place to overrun, flat grassland with easy access from the Eurasians steppes.

 

[Hvalrossen]

A literate tradition would bring them under strong influence of the Roman or Constantinopolitan churches. If the former then Latin will likely take over like it did elsewhere.

If there was a "independant" literate tradition, perhaps a surviving Arian/Homoian tradition? What about a syncretic religious tradition combining Abrahamic and non-Abrahamic elements. Something similar to Yezidism. Maybe even a secular tradition could preserve the Gothic language over religious barriers?

I think they'd survive better if there wasn't.

Why?

I think it mostly given that surviving Gothic country would keep their old alphabet, unless they’re reduced to near irrelevance (like the Crimean Goths.

I am not thinking about a 'gothic country', just about Gothic speakers and the propagation of the language.

Not really, a small Gothic remnant population could dwell in the Danube delta, but honestly the region are almost empty even today. It’s simply a easy place to overrun, flat grassland with easy access from the Eurasians steppes.

Is the Danube delta itself vulnerable to attacks, or just the areas surrounding it?

 

[The Professor]

If there was a "independant" literate tradition, perhaps a surviving Arian/Homoian tradition? What about a syncretic religious tradition combining Abrahamic and non-Abrahamic elements. Something similar to Yezidism. Maybe even a secular tradition could preserve the Gothic language over religious barriers?

Heresies in Europe kind of needed political backing to survive. This is difficult to do here.

Why?

Too much a target in my opinion in that area. It feels more doable post 1000 to me.

 

[Jürgen]

If there was a "independant" literate tradition, perhaps a surviving Arian/Homoian tradition? What about a syncretic religious tradition combining Abrahamic and non-Abrahamic elements. Something similar to Yezidism. Maybe even a secular tradition could preserve the Gothic language over religious barriers?

Why?

I am not thinking about a 'gothic country', just about Gothic speakers and the propagation of the language.

Is the Danube delta itself vulnerable to attacks, or just the areas surrounding it?

Dobruja are easy to overrun, the Danube delta are the only defensive part of it, and it have next to no people. At best the Goths could pull a Venice there, but without any hinterland Gothic would go the way of the Italian dialect in Ragusa

 

[Hvalrossen]

Dobruja are easy to overrun, the Danube delta are the only defensive part of it, and it have next to no people. At best the Goths could pull a Venice there, but without any hinterland Gothic would go the way of the Italian dialect in Ragusa

If a Gothic Venice is created in the Danube delta, then there may likely be small settlements scattered around the Delta.

There was a group of religious dissenters from Russia that migrated into the Danube delta, called Lipovans.

In order to construct their homes, the Lipovans create islets of dry land by digging mud out from trenches and making a series of canals. The house walls are made of reed and mud,[3][4] and thatching is standard for the roofing. Because of the characteristics of these materials, the buildings have a tendency to sink into the mud and need to be rebuilt every few years.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lipovans