AHC: Give ASEAN a nuclear weapon.

[Erizium]

Southeast Asia, as declared by ASEAN, is a nuclear weapon-free zone, although the countries there might probably not even have the capabilities for a nuclear power plant first and foremost.

With a PoD after 1945, how would you change events to give ASEAN nuclear capabilities (weapons first)? Indonesia (modern) and the Philippines (1960s) seem likely candidates, or maybe a Vietnam supported by the Communist bloc?

 

[Namayan]

Philippines would have acquired if Washington wanted to. Philippines acquiring is dependent if USA pushed her. The world political situation wherein it is USA who is pushing an ally in south east asia to have one.

Otherwise, Philippines wont be investing a lot on nuclear weapons or military for that matter. Traditionally, minus Marcos or WW2 and Philippine-American war, the Philippine military spending is around 2% of the GDP.

While the OTL nuclear reactors donated during the Atoms for peace program are under civilian control at the University of the Philippines. It wont turn into military application unless you got a madman as president or Philippines is forced due to situation.

Legally, OTL philippines got a nuclear power program framework since late 1950s. but the program started/delayed until 1963 with the nuclear reactor.

If US really pushed Philippines, the Philippines might have a working nuclear bomb as early 1960s before the Chinese in OTL. If the US simply gave Philippines one thru a nuclear weapon sharing program, by 1945.

 

[trainvoi]

Vietnam could acquire nuclear weapon if:
- America didn’t rig the South Vietnam reunification referendum, which would resulted in overwhelming majority voting for reunification with the North, therefore its economy didn’t have to focus on war like in OTL.
- Without American intervention, Vietnam would probably turn into Yugoslavia in South East Asia, trading with the West and the Eastern Bloc, although relation with the West is not the best.
- China had to threaten with Vietnam with forces if Vietnam didn’t want to be in Chinese sphere of influence, which allow Vietnam to see nuclear weapons as a deterrent against nuclear-armed China. They could either ask the West, considering Domino effect was still in the West thinking and Vietnam was hostile to China-the main supporter of communist insurrection in SEA. Or they could ask the Soviets after the Sino-Soviet split, which could potentially become like the Cuban Missile Crisis, but the Soviet would won considering the state of PLAN at the time.