Your mission is to have the equivalent of the Four Asian Tigers appear in Africa, at about the same time (1950-1990s). Who are the likeliest candidates? I'd say Rwanda might be able to pull a singapore after/without the genocide.Some Maghreb state like Morocco might also be up for it. How would this affect the broader region?
AHC: Four African Tigers
- Thread starter SpaceRome
- Start date
What advantages does Ghana have that other West African states don't? I'm shamefully unfamiliar with the region.
Chapman
Donor
Egypt strikes me as the obvious first choice. I am far from well versed in African history especially in this period but Egypt, having the Suez Canal plus lots of tourism and probably their fair share of oil/natural gases (among other resources) sounds like it could make for a successful economy.
South Africa also seems like a possibility but there would have to be some major changes and I don't know if it could all be accomplished in the timeframe desired (1950-1990). Apartheid needs to end perhaps not abruptly but swiftly and as painlessly as possible to attract continued foreign investment and avoid sanctions/boycotts. At the very least, white South Africans have to learn to be only just as racist as their contemporary Western counterparts. Then I could see the economy taking off.
Gabon is overlooked in a lot of discussions about Africa I think. Again I know painfully little about the country overall, never mind in the period described. But I know today they are fairly well off and rank high in terms of HDI. They have many economic hurdles to overcome before becoming a powerhouse though.
Finally I would say Kenya. Despite a pretty middling economy at best it is infact one of the largest in its region, so there's potential.
South Africa also seems like a possibility but there would have to be some major changes and I don't know if it could all be accomplished in the timeframe desired (1950-1990). Apartheid needs to end perhaps not abruptly but swiftly and as painlessly as possible to attract continued foreign investment and avoid sanctions/boycotts. At the very least, white South Africans have to learn to be only just as racist as their contemporary Western counterparts. Then I could see the economy taking off.
Gabon is overlooked in a lot of discussions about Africa I think. Again I know painfully little about the country overall, never mind in the period described. But I know today they are fairly well off and rank high in terms of HDI. They have many economic hurdles to overcome before becoming a powerhouse though.
Finally I would say Kenya. Despite a pretty middling economy at best it is infact one of the largest in its region, so there's potential.
Relative stability in their government. Ghana’s pretty good on democratic rule of law, and rule of law was a major component of why the Asian Tigers took off like they did (well, in Singapore and HK at least).
Singapore is a port city on one of the world’s busiest sea routes, Hong Kong was pretty much the port to China, Japan and Taiwan had easy access to American markets. They we’re all also quite developed by the standards of the region. I don’t really think there’re comparative states in Africa.
I understand the reference, but since it the African continent, shouldn't be Lions? 
if the OP would allow a back-stretching of the PoD to 1948, it is possible to have the United Party (Smuts' party) in South Africa win the South African election of 1948, which would kill apartheid before it was born and allow the results of the Fagan Commission, probably the most liberal commission of its time in South Africa to be implemented, allowing for a more free and gradualist South Africa overall
Sustained!
I think any post 1900 PoD is good as long as the economic rise itself happens in the specific time frame. Singapore and Hong Kong weren't created out of nothing in 1950, after all.
Smuts wins in 1948, South Africa does the Rhodesia model of qualified francise+only jim crow levels of segregation plus allowing in lots of euro immigrants.
Have Rhodesia get independence in say 1950 as a dominion and you get this.
Yeah, both eventually transition to majority rule but at least the government isn't quite as bad as OTL and both are rather more developed/functional than OTL's SA/zimbabwe. Call it say near first world average[1] for South Africa and zimbabwe-rhodesia having OTL south africa levels of development.
Namibia is somewhere between South Africa/zimbabwe rhodesia in development but hey, significantly bettr than OTL.
Botswana? Not quite first world but pretty close, leveraging mineral wealth+competent governance in a better neighborhood. While we're improving the neighborhood have better governance/less violence in south africa lead to economic boosts for lesotho/swaziland to get boost to say middle income territory with the same happening to Zambia. Make Malawi be "decent for africa", that is to say lowest third of third world for tier of development instead of "poor/screwed up by AFRICAN" standards.
Have Portugal's government flee to Angola in the 70s during the Carnation revolution, pulling a peshawar lancers. Using oil money+tropical produce combined with it being a developmentalist rightwing regime they get Angola to say Botswana's level of development. The govrnment of Angola gradually shifts from fascist regime ruled by europeans to fascist regime ruled by natives but didn't go through a massive civil war.
Going by how poor/messed up a bunch of these places are OTL I suspect I fulfill your request for asian tigers levels of growth.
[1] Blacks would still be pretty poor in south Africa but upper end of developing countries beats "poor by OTL south african standards")
Have Rhodesia get independence in say 1950 as a dominion and you get this.
Yeah, both eventually transition to majority rule but at least the government isn't quite as bad as OTL and both are rather more developed/functional than OTL's SA/zimbabwe. Call it say near first world average[1] for South Africa and zimbabwe-rhodesia having OTL south africa levels of development.
Namibia is somewhere between South Africa/zimbabwe rhodesia in development but hey, significantly bettr than OTL.
Botswana? Not quite first world but pretty close, leveraging mineral wealth+competent governance in a better neighborhood. While we're improving the neighborhood have better governance/less violence in south africa lead to economic boosts for lesotho/swaziland to get boost to say middle income territory with the same happening to Zambia. Make Malawi be "decent for africa", that is to say lowest third of third world for tier of development instead of "poor/screwed up by AFRICAN" standards.
Have Portugal's government flee to Angola in the 70s during the Carnation revolution, pulling a peshawar lancers. Using oil money+tropical produce combined with it being a developmentalist rightwing regime they get Angola to say Botswana's level of development. The govrnment of Angola gradually shifts from fascist regime ruled by europeans to fascist regime ruled by natives but didn't go through a massive civil war.
Going by how poor/messed up a bunch of these places are OTL I suspect I fulfill your request for asian tigers levels of growth.
[1] Blacks would still be pretty poor in south Africa but upper end of developing countries beats "poor by OTL south african standards")
Two suggestions from me are:
1. Tunisia. It grew quite quickly in the 1970s "but this proved unsustainable and [its growth rate] collapsed to a cumulative 10% growth in the turbulent eighties." The article also talks about its modest oil reserves compared to its neighbours, so maybe Tunisia could become a country that looks at things like renewable energy and desalination technology before some of the Arabian states do. Imagine a Tunisia that is developing more or less in line with Southern European nations or the aforementioned Asian Tigers and thus is more a hub for technological innovation, exporting energy generated by solar panels to Europe, or investing in technology that would aid in its specific situation; for me that would mean something like metabolic engineering to have crops grow in salty water and then maybe using the Chott El Djerid to irrigate a much larger percentage of its territory. It's also ideally situated centrally on the south coast of the Mediterranean, where it can easily trade with wealthier Europe and could invest in larger container/shipping ports as a halfway stop between Gibraltar and Suez. It has good potential for tourism due to its climate and history. It could also look to sign earlier trade agreements with the EU, which would again help its economy.
2. Morocco. Morocco was aiming for growth rates of between 6.5% and 7.5% according to Wikipedia. However, I also know it got into a pissing match with neighbouring Algeria due to a disagreement about where their border should lie exactly. This meant that both Morocco and Algeria spent more on their militaries than was really necessary, which I suppose was all money that could have been invested into other areas of the economy. The border between Morocco and Algeria has been closed since 1994. It would maybe also help if Morocco could gain control over Western Sahara with more Western Saharan consent - although I don't have time to explore how that would be achieved right now. However, my basic premise is that the border between Morocco and Algeria is definitively settled before the independence of both countries and this results in more trade between Morocco and Algeria, more money invested into the Moroccan economy, and maybe less Algerian opposition to Morocco's annexation of Western Sahara and the Western Saharans being 'happier' at Moroccan annexation because Morocco is richer ITTL. Like Tunisia, Morocco is close to Europe, so trade is easier.
I could also imagine a scenario where, with the second POD and good Moroccan-Algerian relations ITTL, that you could see a Northwest African EEZ being created between Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia that would benefit all three of their economies. This could also be in a kind of loose agreement with the EU, maybe even with FoM of people given there are already lots of Moroccans in Spain and Algerians in France IOTL.
Regards,
Northstar
As an addendum, I could see a more economically developed Morocco maybe being quite liberal for the Muslim world, maybe even with LGBTQ+ rights on par with OTL Turkey. I say this because I went on a date with a Moroccan guy last year and he told me that there are lots of rumours that Mohammed IV of Morocco is a closet homosexual. His Wikipedia states he has a wife and doesn't mention homosexuality, but a Google search reveals two journalists tried to blackmail him over it. He's known for his social reforms and liberalisation. Now, I'm not saying the king would be openly gay, but I could imagine a situation whereby an already more developed and more liberal Morocco with closer links to the EU ITTL, sees Mohammed IV ascend to the throne and he legalises homosexuality "to secure more trading and economic opportunities with the EU" as the pretext for doing so and the EU being happy to provide that smokescreen. But maybe that's wishful thinking.
1. Tunisia. It grew quite quickly in the 1970s "but this proved unsustainable and [its growth rate] collapsed to a cumulative 10% growth in the turbulent eighties." The article also talks about its modest oil reserves compared to its neighbours, so maybe Tunisia could become a country that looks at things like renewable energy and desalination technology before some of the Arabian states do. Imagine a Tunisia that is developing more or less in line with Southern European nations or the aforementioned Asian Tigers and thus is more a hub for technological innovation, exporting energy generated by solar panels to Europe, or investing in technology that would aid in its specific situation; for me that would mean something like metabolic engineering to have crops grow in salty water and then maybe using the Chott El Djerid to irrigate a much larger percentage of its territory. It's also ideally situated centrally on the south coast of the Mediterranean, where it can easily trade with wealthier Europe and could invest in larger container/shipping ports as a halfway stop between Gibraltar and Suez. It has good potential for tourism due to its climate and history. It could also look to sign earlier trade agreements with the EU, which would again help its economy.
2. Morocco. Morocco was aiming for growth rates of between 6.5% and 7.5% according to Wikipedia. However, I also know it got into a pissing match with neighbouring Algeria due to a disagreement about where their border should lie exactly. This meant that both Morocco and Algeria spent more on their militaries than was really necessary, which I suppose was all money that could have been invested into other areas of the economy. The border between Morocco and Algeria has been closed since 1994. It would maybe also help if Morocco could gain control over Western Sahara with more Western Saharan consent - although I don't have time to explore how that would be achieved right now. However, my basic premise is that the border between Morocco and Algeria is definitively settled before the independence of both countries and this results in more trade between Morocco and Algeria, more money invested into the Moroccan economy, and maybe less Algerian opposition to Morocco's annexation of Western Sahara and the Western Saharans being 'happier' at Moroccan annexation because Morocco is richer ITTL. Like Tunisia, Morocco is close to Europe, so trade is easier.
I could also imagine a scenario where, with the second POD and good Moroccan-Algerian relations ITTL, that you could see a Northwest African EEZ being created between Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia that would benefit all three of their economies. This could also be in a kind of loose agreement with the EU, maybe even with FoM of people given there are already lots of Moroccans in Spain and Algerians in France IOTL.
Regards,
Northstar
As an addendum, I could see a more economically developed Morocco maybe being quite liberal for the Muslim world, maybe even with LGBTQ+ rights on par with OTL Turkey. I say this because I went on a date with a Moroccan guy last year and he told me that there are lots of rumours that Mohammed IV of Morocco is a closet homosexual. His Wikipedia states he has a wife and doesn't mention homosexuality, but a Google search reveals two journalists tried to blackmail him over it. He's known for his social reforms and liberalisation. Now, I'm not saying the king would be openly gay, but I could imagine a situation whereby an already more developed and more liberal Morocco with closer links to the EU ITTL, sees Mohammed IV ascend to the throne and he legalises homosexuality "to secure more trading and economic opportunities with the EU" as the pretext for doing so and the EU being happy to provide that smokescreen. But maybe that's wishful thinking.
1. Liberia is the US can get its act together and actually help the place.
2. Senegal with the French supporting and helping them out.
3. Zanzibar forms a Singapore like city state off the East Coast of Tanzania with support of the UK
4. One of the Colonies of Portugal if they were helped by not just Portugal but other Western European power to balance the Soviet influences.
I leave North Africa, South Afica and Rhodesia off because it is much different historically, colonial past, and populations than the rest of Africa.
2. Senegal with the French supporting and helping them out.
3. Zanzibar forms a Singapore like city state off the East Coast of Tanzania with support of the UK
4. One of the Colonies of Portugal if they were helped by not just Portugal but other Western European power to balance the Soviet influences.
I leave North Africa, South Afica and Rhodesia off because it is much different historically, colonial past, and populations than the rest of Africa.
You could also have a dictator of the Congo who isn't a total corrupt kleptocrat like Mobutu and instead be halfway competent at using the Congo's enormous mineral and hydro resources to benefit the country, making it one of the Asian tigers alongside a United Party South Africa and perhaps a more successful Egypt?
@Aisha Clan-Clan beat me to it and with far more detail and all. I’m not quite that well read about African history or economics at all but I feel South Africa, Kenya, Rhodesia, and Botswana are good candidates. The first three enacted policies that weren’t too good for their economies.
If SA never enacts apartheid then it will get far more immigration from Europe and won’t run into the embargoes and such that crippled it later on.
The same for Rhodesia basically, with early on changes to increase immigration and avoid the issues that lead to war and it becoming Zimbabwe.
Like Aisha said Botswana, which already is doing pretty ok Iirc might be even better with a better neighborhood but not sure what else could help.
Kenya iirc kicked out a lot of its white and Indian citizens and that obviously hurt their economy so maybe not doing that would help a fair bit?
If SA never enacts apartheid then it will get far more immigration from Europe and won’t run into the embargoes and such that crippled it later on.
The same for Rhodesia basically, with early on changes to increase immigration and avoid the issues that lead to war and it becoming Zimbabwe.
Like Aisha said Botswana, which already is doing pretty ok Iirc might be even better with a better neighborhood but not sure what else could help.
Kenya iirc kicked out a lot of its white and Indian citizens and that obviously hurt their economy so maybe not doing that would help a fair bit?
Well my thing got asian tiger-level growth rates for alot of the 1950-90 period but I didn't get asian tiger being first world level for any of the african lion economies. You'd probably ned a POD WAY before 1900 to get that imo.
DR Congo, Ethiopia, Kenya, and Equatorial Guinea are good candidates.
Each of these had the potential to fit this mold, but failed. In an ATL, they might have.
Haile Selassie should put a strong focus on boosting agricultural output in his country. This way the famine that plagued Ethiopia in the 70s, that lead to Selassie's downfall can be averted. Secondly, as part of modernizing Ehtiopia, he should engage in import substitution industrialization.
Kenya too engagaed in import substitution industrialization. But the failed, in part due to poor management of the industries and a lack of skilled people. For both Ethiopia and Kenya these problems would exist. They would be solved with several ways. One is to invest heavily in developing the educational systems of the country, meanwhile using expat technicians for the time being. Secondly, the government needs to take the lead in business creation and privatization. The government in these countries can form industrial companies only to subsequently privatize them. This allows the government to accelerate industrialization while putting managment in the hands of those who wouldn't run them into the ground. Secondly, a more aggressive protection policy; instead of tarriffs, import quotas and outright bans on imported items would force these companies to develop at a greater pace. Thirdly, once a sufficient level of industrialization is met, start marketing these products to an African/regional market, rather than try to penetrate the Western one. The goal is to create political trade bloc that can overcome any deficiencies these new industries have with respect to international competition.
Both the Congo and Equatorial Guinea are countries that would be poised to experience booming economies in the 20th century if it weren't for utterly incompetent leadership. The Congo can provide the raw materials to Ethiopia and Kenya while Equatorial Guinea can provide them with oil(which would mitigate the 1973 oil crisis a lot). In return, the Congo and Equatorial Guinea both sign preferable trade deals with the two while imposing tariffs on Western products.
This way, all four countries end up complementing each other. If things go just right here, you should get a positive feedback loop and you'll get your four African tigers.
Each of these had the potential to fit this mold, but failed. In an ATL, they might have.
Haile Selassie should put a strong focus on boosting agricultural output in his country. This way the famine that plagued Ethiopia in the 70s, that lead to Selassie's downfall can be averted. Secondly, as part of modernizing Ehtiopia, he should engage in import substitution industrialization.
Kenya too engagaed in import substitution industrialization. But the failed, in part due to poor management of the industries and a lack of skilled people. For both Ethiopia and Kenya these problems would exist. They would be solved with several ways. One is to invest heavily in developing the educational systems of the country, meanwhile using expat technicians for the time being. Secondly, the government needs to take the lead in business creation and privatization. The government in these countries can form industrial companies only to subsequently privatize them. This allows the government to accelerate industrialization while putting managment in the hands of those who wouldn't run them into the ground. Secondly, a more aggressive protection policy; instead of tarriffs, import quotas and outright bans on imported items would force these companies to develop at a greater pace. Thirdly, once a sufficient level of industrialization is met, start marketing these products to an African/regional market, rather than try to penetrate the Western one. The goal is to create political trade bloc that can overcome any deficiencies these new industries have with respect to international competition.
Both the Congo and Equatorial Guinea are countries that would be poised to experience booming economies in the 20th century if it weren't for utterly incompetent leadership. The Congo can provide the raw materials to Ethiopia and Kenya while Equatorial Guinea can provide them with oil(which would mitigate the 1973 oil crisis a lot). In return, the Congo and Equatorial Guinea both sign preferable trade deals with the two while imposing tariffs on Western products.
This way, all four countries end up complementing each other. If things go just right here, you should get a positive feedback loop and you'll get your four African tigers.
Last edited:
Ghana without Nkrumah.
Equatorial Guinea without Macías.
A Liberia that ditches minority rule without an apocalyptic civil war.
A Gabon with neighbours to play off of.
Equatorial Guinea without Macías.
A Liberia that ditches minority rule without an apocalyptic civil war.
A Gabon with neighbours to play off of.