AHC: Flipped Axis Competence

Your challenge is, without ASBs, to swap the competence of Fascist Italy and Nazi Germany, so Italy is the competant nation and Germany is the incompetant one. Good luck!
 
Alright then. Here's an idea:

1. Britain and France managed to learn from Germany's Polish blitzkrieg, and prepare a bit more. They would also fortify Northern France more.
2. The Battle of France begins in May 1940 (as in OTL), but the British and French manage to stop the Germans, and a stalemate develops, just like World War I.
3. Italy attacks France in the south, pushing the French back. They take Paris in '41 or '42, and France eventually falls. Germany has a lot more casualties plus a lot less prestige than in OTL.
 
An incompetent Germany means the war ends before Italy has a chance to join it.

I would argue that a competent Italian Leadership doesn’t join the war at all.
 
Your challenge is, without ASBs, to swap the competence of Fascist Italy and Nazi Germany, so Italy is the competant nation and Germany is the incompetant one. Good luck!

The Wehrmacht is built upon SA and SS organizations to ensure it's loyalty, instead of mutinuous tendencies like displayed in late 1918.

Meanwhile, the severe beating Italy received in WW1 in addition to Futurist belief of fascists lead to radica reorganization - the Italian Army (fundamentally there were no severe problems with RM) is reorganized as an elite organization while Blackshirts are kept as a militia.

The wars in Spain and Ethiopia are seen to be validating the concept of an elite fighting force. Figure amount of roughly 16 mechanized divisions, few mountain divisions and a paratroop division. Mass of blackshirts for local defensive tasks. Few security divisions for colonial tasks.

Most importantly, Mussolini reads the tea leaves correctly and when the German offensive in the West is failing the elite Alpine divisions open their offensive upon Germany...
 
An incompetent Germany means the war ends before Italy has a chance to join it.

I would argue that a competent Italian Leadership doesn’t join the war at all.
well Marshal Balbo might but only if he could fight the Germans....
 

TDM

Kicked
in 1939 Germany has approx 2.5x the GDP of Italy and 1.5x the population

Hell the UK and Italy have roughly equal population but the UK has double the Italian GDP!

So it's not just about who's more competant person for person but what they're starting with.

To swap this around you need a substantially different Italy and Germany. I think latest POD is 1919 and a very different ToV
 
in 1939 Germany has approx 2.5x the GDP of Italy and 1.5x the population

Hell the UK and Italy have roughly equal population but the UK has double the Italian GDP!

So it's not just about who's better person for person but what they;re starting with.

To swap this around you need a substantially different Italy and Germany. I think latest POD is 1919 and a very different ToV

In 1939 Soviet Union had roughly 45 times population of Finland, yet after the war Finland was still viewed as more militarily competent than USSR. One does not have to change the outcome, just image of competency.
 

TDM

Kicked
In 1939 Soviet Union had roughly 45 times population of Finland, yet after the war Finland was still viewed as more militarily competent than USSR. One does not have to change the outcome, just image of competency.

Ah OK we're going more with image, that's a bit nebulous since it's based on a lot of things. OK so as as others have said you can't have Italy following where Germany leads which means you have to have a string of early daring and against the odds Italian successes. Problem here is they are limited when it comes to targets that the beating off makes them look good. That's really just France and that's a hard fight for Italy to win* let alone look good doing so! Otherwise it's opponents that they should beat which means it's commonplace if they do and embarrassing if they don't (just like OTL)


*even if Italy are the masters of Blitzkrieg in 1939 they're starting at the wrong end of France.
 
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Ah OK we're going more with image, that's a bit nebulous since it's based on a lot of things. OK so as as others have said you can't have Italy following where Germany leads which means you have to have a string of early daring and against the odds Italian successes. Problem here is they are limited when it comes to targets that the beating off makes them look good. That's really just France and that's a hard fight for Italy to win* let alone look good doing so! Otherwise it's opponents that they should beat which means it's commonplace if they do and embarrassing if they don't (just like OTL)


*even if Italy are the masters of Blitzkrieg in 1939 they're starting at the wrong end of France.

Success against France is difficult, unless Italy attacks Tunisia instead of mainland France. An early success in Tunisia might result Tunisia going to Italy, and it would mean the British in Egypt would have to face battle-hardened (and of course, somewhat depleted) force. Of course the easier route would be to go for Egypt first, and going in hard.

Defeat of the Western Desert force with higher quality Italian forces, probably with numerical superiority as well, would not be out of bounds of reality. After defeat of the Western Desert Force, could Italy get into Suez? What would Egypt do? In the end, if WW2 follows the usual route the Allies would win after a hard - or easier slog if they bypass Africa, but image of competence might be different.
 
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TDM

Kicked
Success against France is difficult, unless Italy attacks Tunisia instead of mainland France. An early success in Tunisia might result Tunisia going to Italy, and it would mean the British in Egypt would have to face battle-hardened (and of course, somewhat depleted) force. Of course the easier route would be to go for Egypt first, and going in hard.

Defeat of the Western Desert force with higher quality Italian forces, probably with numerical superiority as well, would not be out of bounds of reality. After defeat of the Western Desert Force, could Italy get into Suez? What would Egypt do? In the end, if WW2 follows the usual route the Allies would win after a hard - or easier slog if they bypass Africa, but image of competence might be different.

I agree tht might make the Italy look less bad but it still ultimately Italy beating France in a very secondary theatre likely helped by a German invasion of France!

Italy could conceivably beat the Brits in NAfrica I guess in some way but again if it's some long drawn out slog it' not some great stunning victory cementing Italian competence (especially if as per above the Battle of France, Dunkirk etc is happening as per OTL as well).

Ultimately I go back to my initial point Italy is just not starting with enough to get any victory that will look stunning against the toughest available opponents leaving it with all it can do is beat up people it should be able beat up.
 

Deleted member 94680

A few decisions different and Germany could easily be seen as incompetent. Economy disintegrating in ‘42 and causing a halt in offensive ops or something like that.

The Italians if they stayed in the War until the end, had a slightly better defensive performance and didn’t swap sides, could be seen as more competent.
 
I would argue that a competent Italian Leadership doesn’t join the war at all.
Not necessarily with historical hindsight the choice is obvious, however with France collapsing. Peace will look like it is coming soon so why not join to gain Mare Nostrum.
 
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