AHC: Catholics are majority of world population

Your challenge is to make Catholics (those who at least nominally owe spiritual allegiance to the Roman Pontiff) more than 50% of the world population.

Must haves:
  • Catholic Church must still be a hierarchical organization with a clearly defined central leadership
  • The leader must still claim to be the Vicar of Christ and successor to St. Peter
  • The central leadership must be sovereign in its own right (owing no allegiance to any temporal power)
Ideals:
  • Church HQ still in Rome
  • One or more native empires in the Americas survive and become Catholic monarchies in their own right
  • The Asian giants China, India, and Japan largely remain with their pre-existing traditions, so the easy way of converting these countries is closed.
Challenges:
  • Eastern Orthodox reunite with Rome
  • More native African kingdoms like Kongo are recognized as Catholic monarchies on an equal basis with European ones
  • Protestant Reformation either averted through internal reforms, or total Catholic victory during religious wars, or Protestants becoming a marginal sect
 
Roman Empire doesn’t fall in the West, Islam does not arise as serious contender. Bishop of Rome does sexire his See as pre-eminent in the Christian Church. Rome and its European neighbors (all of which become Catholic, natch) follow the historical pattern of establishing colonial Empires.

If we assume this version of Christinity, backed up by the Empire, can hold its own against schismatic reformists, that means you get Europe, most of Africa, the Americas, western and northern Asia, and Oceania. If population trends mirror our history, that should just about get you there.
 
If you remove Islam, Orthodox and Protestant Christianity altogether, Catholicism would seem easily poised to take over most of the world.
 
Roman Empire doesn’t fall in the West, Islam does not arise as serious contender. Bishop of Rome does sexire his See as pre-eminent in the Christian Church. Rome and its European neighbors (all of which become Catholic, natch) follow the historical pattern of establishing colonial Empires.

If we assume this version of Christinity, backed up by the Empire, can hold its own against schismatic reformists, that means you get Europe, most of Africa, the Americas, western and northern Asia, and Oceania. If population trends mirror our history, that should just about get you there.

If you remove Islam, Orthodox and Protestant Christianity altogether, Catholicism would seem easily poised to take over most of the world.
Sure, but how do we prevent a destabilizing schism? The Roman Empire would have to remain entirely politically united, which stretches plausibility.

England does not become a world empire
That sounds interesting. England either remains a backwater or loyal to Rome, implying the Reformation was confined to Scandinavia at most. Maybe Spain, Portugal, and France are in a ruthless contest for overseas colonies to deliver more gold to Rome's coffers to curry more influence spread the faith to the heathens. That would make the entire Americas and most of Sub-Saharan Africa monolithically Catholic, which reaches 35-40% of the world. To bring this to 50% we'll need:
  • More European settlement of the Americas
  • Higher survival rate of indigenous Americans and Christianization
  • Faster demographic growth in Africa
  • Catholicism becomes an identifier of the top 10% elite in China, India, Japan, etc. It helps that the liturgy was localized.
That should just about do it.
 
Have the Spanish exploratory missions in the South Pacific find Australia, and then the gold—so you might get Spanish settlement of Australia. Similarly, a much earlier Spanish interest in California can lead to much of western North America going Catholic.

An early discovery of the smallpox vaccine could help in two ways. First, it can be distributed by Catholic missionaries in the Americas, both preserving more of the native population and setting up a selection bias that favors American Indians open to conversion.

You might get Muscovy into communion with Rome through a Polish conquest and an expansion of the Union of Brest. That nets you much of what’s now Russia.

Another idea: Basil II or his successors are spectacularly successful in Palestine and Egypt and regain those (still then mostly-Christian) provinces for Constantinople. If Basil also has successors who aren’t the incompetents who took the purple IOTL, the great schism could be averted, and you’d see the Orthodox Christians retain allegiance to the Pope (if not subservience). Conceivably, with Egypt and Jerusalem in Roman hands and the Abbasid Caliphate shortly thereafter smashed by the Mongols, Islam in Africa can be swallowed piecemeal by expanding Italian merchant states or Spanish kingdoms on an expanded Reconquista (without the Ottoman Empire backing up the Barbary states).

If Islam looks like a defeated religion by then, a Khan or two embracing Christianity might also happen—possibly paving the way for much of western Asia to convert.

You might achieve similar results by having a Crusade succeed in conquering Egypt (as they often tried to), but I’m not sure how plausible that is.

A final possibility, and one that might be the most out-there and implausible: a supercharged Danish Empire under successors to Cnut the Great, one that takes an interest in Vinland and so settles the Americas with Catholics from the 11th-century onward.
 
Or just have England stay part of the Catholic Church

Maybe. But it's interesting to note that OTL, England didn't really seem to give a fig for what the people in her colonies believed (Quakers in Pennsylvania, Catholics in Maryland, Puritans in Massachusetts for instance). Compare that with Spain and Portugal who sent priests alongside the Conquistadors. So, I'm not sure England staying loyal to Rome would be enough. Unless we have something along the lines of an English Inquisition or England being less religiously tolerant because it's Catholic.
 

Edward IX

Banned
Henry VIII and Catherine have several surviving sons. Henry continues to speak out against Luther. Any charter requires loyalty to the Church. Spain not as murderous in New World.
 

Skallagrim

Banned
Here are some ideas:

-- The Roman Empire survives as a united Empire due to a relatively early POD that still isn't too early to prevent Christianity. Naturally, the earlier you go, the more likely it is to somehow affect the basic development of Christianity. Views differ on how early certain tenets were acually more or less established, and on how likely the mainline orthodoxy of OTL was to succeed against various competing branches. That is: some think 'Roman' Christianity was likely ro become successful anyway, others think a more 'Alexandrian', gnostic sort of christianity could easily have gained the upper hand in an ATL. If you're of the opinion that something very much like that Catholic Church, with Pope and all, was in fact established early (hi Saint Peter!) and estimate its odds of succeeding as very good, then you can probibly justify a very early POD. This would be best to give Rome the best chances. (My favourite POD for this is Drusus Germanicus not dying and eventually succeeding Augustus, but that would probably affect early Christians considerably...)

No matter the POD, the idea is that Rome can then expand over time. Its greater success goes hand-in-hand with the stability and success of Christianity, which eventually becomes the state religion. As a consequence, early heresies are dealt with quite effectively, and we see a Catholic influence in places as far east as Babylonia-- where this influence was Nestorian in OTL. Islam is probably butterflied away, and Arabia may in fact become Christian instead. If we assume that the Roman Empire becomes the world's foremost power, it can then expand its faith quite aggressively. Centuries down the line, the Roman Empire has triumphed over Persia, which is shattered into mostly Christian successor states. Rome is industrialising. It has discovered, colonised and converted the Americas. With no Islam, central Asia is likewise Christian, as is Indonesia. Missionaries are hard at work in Africa, India and the Far East.

Even after Rome eventually fractures as an Empire... the religion stays. If we assume that a central part of successfully dealing with early heresies is more tolerance for local 'rites', you end up with a decentralised Catholic Church. Various regions and peoples have their own rites and various minor differences, but they agree on the important points of doctrine. Little fuss is made over the details, as long as the various branches of the Church stay loyal to the Holy See. (Which, enjoying rather geat autonomy anyway, they do-- since making trouble isn't worth it.)

This is probably your best bet for overall success. Fix things early on, and you prevent most problems before they arise, Schismatics and Protestants don't ever become an issue, and Islam gets butterflied. You win by default. I can see there being between four and five billion Christians by the present day, all (or nearly all) part of an undivided Church.


-- Somewhat unlikely and possibly entirely apocryphal, but let us assume for the moment that it is either historical, or it somehow becomes historical: Charlemagne marries Irene of the ERE, or some other dynastic re-unification of West and East is undertaken. This gets the full blessing of the Pope, who actually performs the ceremony etc. This construct would be extremely shaky, but assume for the moment that it survives its early weakness, that the interaction between the two greatly benefits both economically and knowledge-wise (exchange of whatever philosophical and scientific sources they each possess). The capital must no doubt be in Rome, and the Empire will be very decentralised by default. Some balance gets struck between the caesaropapist tendencies of the ERE and the papal supremacy of the West (illustrated by the fact that the Pope crowned Charlemagne, thus positioning himself as more elevented than the Emperor). The compromise rather ends up like the outcome of OTL's investiture struggle: the Pope enjoys supremacy, but temporal matters are the Emperor's business.

The union of west and east prevents the Great Schism. Likewise, with most of Christendom united in one Empire, it becomes rather likely that various outlying places (British isles, Scandinavia etc.) eventually become part of this empire, if only in a theoretical sense. There were times in OTL where kings of England recognised the Holy Roman Emperor as the supreme temporal authority over all Christendom-- with the caveat that they knew it was 'only on paper'. Just build on that. The restored Roman Empire theoretically covers all of Christendom, and even states like Ireland and Poland recognise the Emperor as their liege... but much like the Chinese Emperor for the greater part of history, whoever sits on the throne will know that this authority exists only on paper. He controls his imperial core, and the outlying regions mostly defer to the Emperor as supreme arbiter in diplomatic disagreements and things like that. At times his power waxes, at times it wanes.

But no matter what, Christendom has an Emperor. It has a Pope. And both Empire and Church, covering such a sprawling multitude, are by definition rather decentral. Again, this would ultimately just aid the Church in preventing schisms. As in OTL, Europeans are quite likely to end up discovering, colonising and converting the Americas. If this united Empire can pull it off, North Africa and the Levant might be permanently reclaimed from the hands of Islam. From there, Chistianity can expand into Africa. Elsewhere, it can go steadily east from european Russia, seeping towards the bering Strait and eventually covering the area of OTL's Russia.

This is ultimately less effective than the scenario suggested above. Supplanting Islam in Africa and the Levant gets you some extra souls, but mostly, we're talking about "just" making sure every Christian remains with the mother church. I'd estimate the result in the present day at c. 3 billion Christians, all (or nearly all) part of an undivided Church. That's a big achievement, but not an absolute majority of the world's population.


-- Having political history go pretty much as in OTL is also an option, if you can just get the Church to be more tolerant of local rites. This wouldn't do much early on, but could prevent the Great Schism, could see england opting to devolve into an "Anglican Rite Catholicism" rather than split off, and could also forestall the Reformation entirely (reforming your local branch of the Church would be the easier course, instead of trying to overturn everything). Best outcome there, however, seems to me that pretty much all Christians remain in the mother church. That gives you "merely" an estimated 4.5 billion Christians by the present day.


All in all, having a single religion constitute an absolute majority of all humans isn't easy at all. Naturally, there are PODs like a reverse "Years of Rice and Salt", with a plague wiping out vast swathes of the population in parts of the world that aren't Christian, but I consider that kind of POD to be a bit unimaginitive.
 
All of the above won't be enough to get above the 50% margin wothout Catholicism making significant inroads into Asia, especially India and China.
 

Skallagrim

Banned
All of the above won't be enough to get above the 50% margin wothout Catholicism making significant inroads into Asia, especially India and China.

The first scenario I proposed would get you all of OTL's Christian world, plus all of OTL's Islamic world (including Indonesia), plus any parts of Africa not covered by the aforementioned. I estimate that as being at least four billion people. So that would do the trick (four billion is over 50% of humanity) without involving India and China. In fact, those two plus Indochina would be the only parts of the world that aren't Christian in that scenario-- good for a total of about 3 billion non-Christians by the present day. (Granted, since the scenario covers so long a time, countless things could derail it-- but it's the most feasible way I can think of to meet the OP's challenge.)
 

Albert.Nik

Banned
All of the above won't be enough to get above the 50% margin wothout Catholicism making significant inroads into Asia, especially India and China.
That's right! And that would prove very difficult. India uniquely had and even has a religiously motivated caste system though it began with a racially motivated one. A person who converts to an another religion is viewed casteless and that wouldn't be a good thing. A reconversion would be very hard to do unlike for Pagans,etc. Only Due to modern movements,reconversion and conversion to Hinduism is becoming popular. So if you want a Catholic India,you need to make inroads before 3rd to 4th century AD and again very very difficult. You need Catholic Christian Kushans,Huns or Scythians Due to this,it wouldn't be possible to make India Catholic easily. China? I'm agnostic to the fact that we could have a Catholic China as Orthodox Christians blocked the way to get to China. Plus,Christianity isn't as cohesive as Islam so even if Catholicism succeeded to become a majority religion,it would soon be terribly divided and eventually collapse more easily.
 

Albert.Nik

Banned
If the Orthodox and Catholic Church were United,I see some chance. That would mean a very strong Constantinople due to the fact that there are no crusades or western aggression and hence it would eventually conquer Middle East and North Africa,Catholicisizing them eventually. Persia,Central Asia and India would have been targeted but success rates might be a low probability due to terrain,populations,situation back home,etc.
 
Gurps AE 1 had this: The son of Isabella and Ferdinand survives; Portugal does more missionary work in East Asia instead of crusades, St. Francis Xavier converts many Japanese, eventually all Japanese up to the tenno do so, and since Japan becomes a world-spanning empire, at the end half of the world population (and 90% of the elites) are Catholic.
 

Albert.Nik

Banned
I give you an another timeline: East Germanic and Roman people together convert to Catholicism and migrate towards east where fertile lands exist. They conquer most of Central Asia eventually making in roads to China,Mongolia and Northern India. But you need to prevent this East Germano-Greek-Roman empire from falling like the Original Rome. Eventually a Third Rome would be built there. Eastern Roman Catholic it would be. It is remotely likely.
 
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