AHC: Can we have an early Independent Ireland?

[Lord Of Tacos]

Is possible to keep Ireland independent of British rule or at least that the country becomes independent before 1850? How it can be done?

 

[cmakk1012]

The weaker England/Britain is the better chances there are for a stronger Ireland. One idea I had in the diversify British languages thread is that Normans invade the Pale around Dublin not long after 1066. Then, the Normans lose power to an Anglo-Saxon revolt in England and some flee to Ireland, building up a Norman Ireland to try to re-conquer England?

 

[AnonymousSauce]

The weaker England/Britain is the better chances there are for a stronger Ireland. One idea I had in the diversify British languages thread is that Normans invade the Pale around Dublin not long after 1066. Then, the Normans lose power to an Anglo-Saxon revolt in England and some flee to Ireland, building up a Norman Ireland to try to re-conquer England?

What if the Uí Ímair successfully unite Ireland while England remains divided between the Normans and Hardrada and his successors for a few generations? Maybe the Danes successfully reassert control over part of the Danelaw too?

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

Is there a PoD after the Norman invasion of 1169 but before the Tudor invasions of the 16th Century that would work? AIUI, English authority in the Pale was waning more or less throughout the 14th and 15th centuries due to the 100 Years War and War of the Roses; if the Yorks had prevailed, would that make settlement in the 16th Century less likely?

 

[Moosemac]

Is there a PoD after the Norman invasion of 1169 but before the Tudor invasions of the 16th Century that would work? AIUI, English authority in the Pale was waning more or less throughout the 14th and 15th centuries due to the 100 Years War and War of the Roses; if the Yorks had prevailed, would that make settlement in the 16th Century less likely?

I would certainly say you could have had Britain not end up controlling Ireland further than the pale for much longer depending on their foreign policy, but having them lose control of both the Pale, recognize that formally, and somehow have Ireland unify in anyway might be more difficult. Would probably take both a rebellion with decisive victory against the English, plus either Scotland or France stopping the English from recovering.

 

[Galba Otho Vitelius]

For Ireland to become independent, England has to lose a major war to a major continental power, who supports Irish independence as a means to cut the English down to size.

The formation of both the Irish Free State and the Irish Republic were direct consequences of World War I and World War II.

 

[Zachariah]

Is there a PoD after the Norman invasion of 1169 but before the Tudor invasions of the 16th Century that would work? AIUI, English authority in the Pale was waning more or less throughout the 14th and 15th centuries due to the 100 Years War and War of the Roses; if the Yorks had prevailed, would that make settlement in the 16th Century less likely?

Hope this doesn't count as a necro, but not sure how to send this as a PM, so here was my suggestion for just such a POD:

ITTL, in the late 1170s or early 1180s, Henry II manages to gain the approval of either Pope Alexander III or his successor (perhaps if someone more amiable than Lucius III gains the Papacy instead) to have John crowned King of Ireland? From that POD, John Angevin's first visit to Ireland in 1185 goes far better than it did IOTL, and John I is successfully coronated as the first King of Ireland, with him and his successors going on to develop and expand the Irish economy, increasing the efficacy of Irish taxation and established numerous new Irish market towns. In contrast, in this TL, the English economy largely stagnates relative to that of Ireland- John never becomes King of England, butterflying Liverpool (a town which he personally founded by royal charter himself in the early 13th century) out of existence, with far-reaching consequences for English colonial aspirations.

John's elder brother Geoffrey escapes his death in the jousting tournament in 1186, becoming King of England instead; Geoffrey's personal friendship with Philip II of France sees Geoffrey retain his place as the ruler of Normandy, Brittany and Anjou, as a vassal of Philip II; the long-proposed marriage of his daughter, Eleanor, to Philip's son and eventual successor, Louis VIII, goes ahead without King Richard alive to interfere, and the Angevin kingdoms on the mainland soon merge with the Kingdom of France. However, he becomes a far more neglectful and tyrannical ruler in England than John I ever was IOTL, rousing far more resentment about his even worse misgovernment, fiscal policies and treatment of many of England's most powerful nobles. As such, with the Magna Carta never signed ITTL, the First Baron's War becomes a full-blown civil war, one which ousts the Angevin dynasty permanently. Largely indifferent about the loss of England, with his primary focus on France, Geoffrey withdraws from England; and the Kingdom of England fragments, with the 25 (probably more ITTL) feudal baronies fighting against one another for dominance, and England becoming a patchwork quilt of principalities with no true king, to an even greater extent than Germany and the contemporary Holy Roman Empire.

Because of this, the primary base of power, wealth and trade in the British Isles shifts permanently from the chaotic, divided and war-ravaged lands of England to the stable, unified, well-governed and far more peaceful Kingdom of Ireland- with Llywelyn the Great, one of John I's greatest allies and son-in-law IOTL, along with the unified Kingdoms of Wales under his dominion, eventually becoming vassals of the Irish crown instead of the English crown ITTL, and with a dynastic union between the Royal Houses of Angevin and Aberffraw). And when British colonialism does kick off ITTL, instead of setting sail from Plymouth, Portsmouth, Bristol, Liverpool and London, the ships set sail predominantly from Dublin, Cork, Limerick, Derry, Waterford, Drogheda, and perhaps even Bangor, Anglesey, Pembroke and Chester as well. And TTL's British Empire effectively becomes the Irish Empire instead.

How does that sound?

 

[The Professor]

Does England have to be nerfed?
An Ireland mostly unified under a single King should be able to prevent any takeover attempt. Especially if it has its own norman military heritage.

 

[Von Tyrconnell]

Does England have to be nerfed?
An Ireland mostly unified under a single King should be able to prevent any takeover attempt. Especially if it has its own norman military heritage.

This, remember that the Nine Years War (where England still had control of a significant amount of Ireland) almost drove England into bankruptcy, annexing a unified independent Ireland is going to be a far harder task.

 

[Zachariah]

Does England have to be nerfed?
An Ireland mostly unified under a single King should be able to prevent any takeover attempt. Especially if it has its own norman military heritage.

Well, it was originally my answer to the AHC of the largest possible Irish Colonial Empire, so nerfing the English was kind of a necessity. But keeping England weak does greatly improve Ireland's chances of getting its independence early and managing to keep it.

 

[Kaze]

For Ireland to become independent, England has to lose a major war to a major continental power, who supports Irish independence as a means to cut the English down to size.

The formation of both the Irish Free State and the Irish Republic were direct consequences of World War I and World War II.

Would the French winning the Battle of Quiberon Bay and by extension the Seven Years War help... or would it hinder Irish Independence?

 

[Fabius Maximus]

Is possible to keep Ireland independent of British rule or at least that the country becomes independent before 1850? How it can be done?

Without Laudabiliter and Henry II's decision to invade the place, I'm not sure the English would ever have bothered trying to conquer it: the island didn't have much strategic significance before the 16th century or so (when there were worries that the Spanish would use it as a spring-board for invading England), there weren't any real natural resources, and English monarchs tended to ignore the place anyway, even though they were theoretically rulers of it.

Alternatively, maybe if the Spanish Armada succeeds in transporting Parma's army across the Channel, that might do the trick: even if the invasion is ultimately unsuccessful, it might well cause enough chaos in England proper for Tudor control over Ireland to lapse.

 

[FillyofDelphi]

Well, it was originally my answer to the AHC of the largest possible Irish Colonial Empire, so nerfing the English was kind of a necessity. But keeping England weak does greatly improve Ireland's chances of getting its independence early and managing to keep it.

On the flip side though, it also removes in many ways the cruciable that helped forge "Ireland" into unified legal entity, build a national cause/identity to form a single Ireland and nationalism behind, weaken the petty kings/clans to the point they woulden't constantly be a threat to the power of a Crown, ect. Getting an island free from Britain is the easy part

 

[James Ricker]

Have a more genetically diverse potato crop that isn't as vulnerable to mold and you avoid the Great Potato famine.
With a higher population when political strife emerges it will be harder and more expensive to subdue. That could get Irish Independence a decade or two earlier.

 

[JennyB]

Is possible to keep Ireland independent of British rule or at least that the country becomes independent before 1850? How it can be done?

Ireland was (sort of) independent priot to 1801, with Grattan's Parliament and the Volunteers taking many cues from the Americans. To continue in that archive you have to butterfly the United Irishmen rising, or at a minimum the Year of the French. You would still be left with a rather corrupt and unstable government seeing little need to reform. IOTL the rising Catholic middle class supported the Act of Union, while the Protestant Ascendancy opposed it until enough of them were bought off.

 

[Indicus]

I’m tempted to say the Society of United Irishmen, but while they could have done far better than OTL, I have a hard time seeing them win.

For a POD, perhaps have Britain fall into a revolution and then have the anti-colonial revolutionary government give Ireland its independence.

 

[JennyB]

I’m tempted to say the Society of United Irishmen, but while they could have done far better than OTL, I have a hard time seeing them win.

See my post above.

For a POD, perhaps have Britain fall into a revolution and then have the anti-colonial revolutionary government give Ireland its independence.

We had the first part of that in the 1650s. It didn’t work out too well for Ireland.

 

[Indicus]

See my post above.

To stay in power, the ruling class needs to, at the very least, accept Dissenters rather than pushing them towards the Catholics, and it needs to stop suppressing reformist movements, because as the Society demonstrates, it only radicalized the masses. I don’t know a POD to do this, but you seem to know more about this subject than me.

We had the first part of that in the 1650s. It didn’t work out too well for Ireland.

I’m not talking about the virtual absolute monarchy that was the Cromwell era. I am talking about a nineteenth-century revolution, as radicals in this era sympathized with Ireland as well as the rest of the British colonial empire. For instance, a Chartist newspaper was named the Northern Star, after the newspaper of the Society of United Ireland.