I would cautiously suggest that possibility of a "long slow" industrial revolution that skips from mechanical to electrical hydropower. The main question in my mind is how linked copper mining and refining was to the coal-iron-steel complex; if it was relatively independent, then one could plausibly develop the cabling industries needed to produce electrical generators and motors without necessarily developing steam engines and the like in the interim. This could really be quite interesting (and is also of interest for post-apocalyptic scenarios, of course).
I wonder about what methods could be used to output the amount of brick or concrete needed to build electrical dams in sufficient volume and how viable they'd be for a society stuck in an agrarian paradigm.
Mechanization had been slowly building since the dying days of the Roman Republic so my feeling is that eventually even without coal and oil a "machine and scientific revolution" would occur. Proving such a hunch would take more detailed knowledge than I possess however. ERoI is pretty fiendish to calculate given how complex even the simplest supply chain is. Also, I hesitate to call such a revolution "industrial" since I am not sure how far capital would replace labour in such a scenario.
fasquardon