AH Question: Prospect of a German-Italian War before World War II

[Wendell]

Perhaps the single most significant obstacle to a Nazi victory in the Second World War was the alliance between Germany and Italy. However, the probability of there being such an alliance seemed less than likely at first. Thus, I ask, what if at some point, preferably after the Munich Pact, there was a war between MUssolini's Italy and Nazi Germany?

What might be the impetus for such a war, and would it even be plausible. Consequentially, however, would Germany win, and, if so, what would that mean for the broader objectives of the Reich in Europe?

 

[Revolutionary Avocado]

Hmmmm, possibly (but very ASB) a somewhat successful coup attempt within Germany, with Hitler surviving but fleeing Berlin (for Munich?) and Mussolini attempting to help Hitler regain power. The German forces loyal to the coup plotters attack the Italians who are moving to shore up Hitler's stronghold in Munich. The Italian intervention also swings nationalists towards the rebel government. Eventually, after a protracted campaign, Italian forces are defeated and Mussolini is overthrown at home. The Reich is basically toast at this point, what with another potential enemy on their southern border and the civil war within Germany having rolled back many gains made under Nazi rule.

 

[Wendell]

Hmmmm, possibly (but very ASB) a somewhat successful coup attempt within Germany, with Hitler surviving but fleeing Berlin (for Munich?) and Mussolini attempting to help Hitler regain power. The German forces loyal to the coup plotters attack the Italians who are moving to shore up Hitler's stronghold in Munich. The Italian intervention also swings nationalists towards the rebel government. Eventually, after a protracted campaign, Italian forces are defeated and Mussolini is overthrown at home. The Reich is basically toast at this point, what with another potential enemy on their southern border and the civil war within Germany having rolled back many gains made under Nazi rule.

I was thinking of something which does not involve HHitler's ouster. Perhaps tensions erupt over Sudtirol?

 

[Revolutionary Avocado]

I was thinking of something which does not involve HHitler's ouster. Perhaps tensions erupt over Sudtirol?

Possible, but unlikely. Hitler was too shrewd a politician to screw up his relationship with his only real European ally over something as insignificant as that. What if Yugoslavia and Greece goes fascist voluntarily, and are able to replace Italy as Germany's ally?

 

[imperialaquila]

Maybe they could go to war over a Nazi invasion of Austria; a real one, not a bloodless occupation. Combined with worse personal relations between the two dictators, and you could have a major war with Austria/Italy vs. Germany, sometime in 1934 or 1935. I don't know who would win; I would say Italy since they have a relatively intact and modern military, while Germany does not.

 

[Badshah]

Italy was quite adamant about Austrian independence, and tensions were high once the Anschluss happened, so a war is possible between the two, and would probably involve Hungary as an Italian ally.

 

[Gridley]

March 1938 would indeed be the best flashpoint; as noted, Italy was NOT happy about the Anschluss.

Post-Munich is tricky. Your best bet might be an escalating personality clash between Hitler and Mussolini; they were both egotistical enough to make it possible.

 

[TheSevenLeggedFallyDowner]

Yeah, an earlier attempted Anchluss is the best bet. By 1936 it became clear that Italy was going to have to start aligning itself with Germany. But in 1934, Italy even went so far as to put troops on their border with Austria in case Germany tried anything. If Hitler followed up the July Putsch with an outright invasion, that would have sparked war with Italy. The problem is that I'm pretty sure not even Hitler was stupid enough to attempt that. He knew he was not yet ready for war in 1934.

 

[Wendell]

Italy was quite adamant about Austrian independence, and tensions were high once the Anschluss happened, so a war is possible between the two, and would probably involve Hungary as an Italian ally.

Why would Hungary get involved?

 

[Cook]

Italy was quite adamant about Austrian independence, and tensions were high once the Anschluss happened, so a war is possible between the two, and would probably involve Hungary as an Italian ally.

No. The Anschluss could only go ahead with Mussolini’s approval. Mussolini received assurances that there would be no attempt to incorporate the South Tyrol into the new Third Reich before he was willing to cast Austria into the wind. Italy as an ally was far more valuable to Hitler than a small group of German speaking people south of the Brenner Pass.

Thus, I ask, what if at some point, preferably after the Munich Pact, there was a war between Mussolini's Italy and Nazi Germany?

Mussolini and Hitler were far too close by that point. You’d need a much earlier point of departure.

Perhaps the single most significant obstacle to a Nazi victory in the Second World War was the alliance between Germany and Italy.

Funny, I thought British obstinacy and the Russian Winter were.

 

[Wendell]

No. The Anschluss could only go ahead with Mussolini’s approval. Mussolini received assurances that there would be no attempt to incorporate the South Tyrol into the new Third Reich before he was willing to cast Austria into the wind. Italy as an ally was far more valuable to Hitler than a small group of German speaking people south of the Brenner Pass.



Mussolini and Hitler were far too close by that point. You’d need a much earlier point of departure.



Funny, I thought British obstinacy and the Russian Winter were.

The POD can be earlier, but the Germans should ideally have the Skoda works, but not yet be at war with Britain or France.

Also, British obstanancy and the Russian winter were themselves huge obstacles, but having to save Mussolini from himself bolstered the allies in a big way.

 

[Cornelius]

Thus, I ask, what if at some point, preferably after the Munich Pact, there was a war between MUssolini's Italy and Nazi Germany?

A war before anschluss would spell the demise of Nazi Germany. At that point the german army was still to weak and the Alps would play into italian favour.
After the whole ethiopian mess and the spanish civil war, the two dictators were simply too close, too dependant on each other that a war between them is borderline ASB. So you should get rid of one of them.

Mussolini, for example, could die earlier. Since none of the possible successors were friendly toward Germany, you could have a window. But you would still need a good casus belli (Sudtirol is too weak for that). Besides in this scenario it's unlikely that Italy would be the aggressor and the allies would probably help the italians over Hitler, if push came to shove.

Otherwise, Hitler could get involved in a civil war after an attempt, successfull or not, to Mussolini's life. But it would be one of the dumbest decision ever for the fuhrer.

Point is that Italy has nothing that Germany needs, instead of Austria and Czechoslovakia. The industry in the north could be interesting, but getting there and keeping them would be a nightmare.

If you want to get rid of Italy, though, you can simply have a worse italian reaction to the winter war. Have Mussolini denounce Hitler for his "comunist appeasing policy", instead of running to Finnland side. Il duce walks away from the alliance with Germany and sits out of WW2.

 

[Gridley]

A war before anschluss would spell the demise of Nazi Germany. At that point the german army was still to weak and the Alps would play into italian favour.

Germany certainly couldn't conquer Italy, but the Italian army wasn't exactly in great shape itself; obsolete equipment, fragile morale, indifferent leadership, questionable organization... I just can't see how they would bring down Germany without the help of a major power.

 

[Cook]

Also, British obstanancy and the Russian winter were themselves huge obstacles, but having to save Mussolini from himself bolstered the allies in a big way.

The Germans never deployed more than 30 divisions in Italian and Mediterranean Front at any time, they never deployed less than 150 divisions on the Eastern Front at any time.

Do go on with your explanation of how Italy was the most significant obstacle to German victory.

 

[Wendell]

The Germans never deployed more than 30 divisions in Italian and Mediterranean Front at any time, they never deployed less than 150 divisions on the Eastern Front at any time.

Do go on with your explanation of how Italy was the most significant obstacle to German victory.

It's not just divisions whih matter here, but supply lines, and the prospet of having had the Italian forces dedicated to Africa potentially in the East too.

 

[Cornelius]

Germany certainly couldn't conquer Italy, but the Italian army wasn't exactly in great shape itself; obsolete equipment, fragile morale, indifferent leadership, questionable organization... I just can't see how they would bring down Germany without the help of a major power.

The war would happen in '34, not in the '40ies. At that time, Italy had better equipment, more men and better organization of the germans... for the simple reason that Germany had just started to rearm. Besides Mussolini would have no need to actually invade Germany or something like that. Just keeping the germans out of Austria would be enough. Hitler needed quick successes to consolidate his grip on the nation, not a reharse of WW1.

 

[Cornelius]

It's not just divisions whih matter here, but supply lines, and the prospet of having had the Italian forces dedicated to Africa potentially in the East too.

Sorry, you've lost me here. Do you mean that the italian forces in the East were detrimental to the war, or that it would have been better if Italy had sent more troops in Russia?

Consider, though, that if Italy is neutral, the british have lots of troops and ships free to use elsewhere... In such a scenario, maybe they are able to keep Malaysia and push back the japanese.

 

[Gridley]

The war would happen in '34,

Don't you mean 1936?

For 1934, yes, you're right.

 

[Wendell]

Sorry, you've lost me here. Do you mean that the italian forces in the East were detrimental to the war, or that it would have been better if Italy had sent more troops in Russia?

Consider, though, that if Italy is neutral, the british have lots of troops and ships free to use elsewhere... In such a scenario, maybe they are able to keep Malaysia and push back the japanese.

In the thought process which inspired this thread I did not so much want Italy neutral as I did neutralized. In other words, the Germans beat Italy into becoming another Hungary, Romania, or even a slightly more belligerent Spain, albeit one which has probably ceded border areas to the Reich. Thus, the Italians are not neutral, but at the same time, no real effort is made by the Germans to bail the Italians out of idiotic invasions of Egypt or Greece, the latter of which could be coopted into the Axis, perhaps bought off with southern Albania.

The Germans would have been better off (as far as what they wanted to achieve) if forces-Italian and German, but especially the latter, had been used more uniformly in the East and not bogged down in worthless Balkan or North African pursuits.

 

[Cornelius]

Don't you mean 1936?

For 1934, yes, you're right.

Well, of course I meant 1934. It was the only moment OTL that Germany and Italy could face each other.

In the 1936, Mussolini had already shifted his opinion on Hitler, mainly due the ill advised Ethiopia invasion and the following sanctions.

If the Duce had steered clear of Abyssinia, the so called Stresa Front would have been active and this would have raised the possibilities of an allied intervention against Germany.

Even if we esclude a direct intervention (GB and France weren't really eager to face another war, to put it mildly), the allies could lend enough money and resources to Italy to outlast Nazi Germany, in what would become a slow war through the mountains.

And Hitler needed quick victories to feed his war machine.