AH Challenge: The Weimar Republic Survives TL

[hammo1j]

What would you call Stalin taking part of Poland in the beginning of WWII? How about the absorption of the Baltics and the establishment of so many Satellite nations in Eastern Europe? I'd call it opportunism.

I know all about this because I went to Latvia (lovely place, nice people) without knowing the history in full. Kareoke is big over there and after a few drinks (about one third the price of the UK), I thought I would do my normal favourite for the bar.

Back in the USSR - by the Beatles.

Naturally the place emptied like a fire had broken out. I thought it was my crap singing - it was only next day. when we went to the unsubtlely titled Museum of the Occupation of the USSR that we got the point.

Is there anyone who wants to go with the Europe v Asia without nukes and US support for the West. I think this is what happens when Germany becomes democratic because it is what actually happened in the Cold War but there were plenty of nukes to keep the peace.

 

[Glen]

I know all about this because I went to Latvia (lovely place, nice people) without knowing the history in full. Kareoke is big over there and after a few drinks (about one third the price of the UK), I thought I would do my normal favourite for the bar.

Back in the USSR - by the Beatles.

Naturally the place emptied like a fire had broken out. I thought it was my crap singing - it was only next day. when we went to the unsubtlely titled Museum of the Occupation of the USSR that we got the point.

Is there anyone who wants to go with the Europe v Asia without nukes and US support for the West. I think this is what happens when Germany becomes democratic because it is what actually happened in the Cold War but there were plenty of nukes to keep the peace.

I suppose this is possible, though I wonder if it would be such a clean break or if there wouldn't be more of Europe supporting the Soviets. Also, I suspect that we get nuclear weapons somewhere in the fifties or sixties. And without them, would there be another world war?

 

[Glen]

I'd like to focus the discussion for a bit on the German presidential election of 1925. I think having a president who would have supported and aided the Weimar government rather than hindering it like Hindenburg would go a long way toward stabilizing the Republic. What are:

The most minimalist POD involving a different outcome for the 1925 election that would allow Weimar to survive the Depression?

The best POD involving the 1925 election that would allow the Weimar Republic to grow healthy?

The most likely POD involving the 1925 election that would preserve the Weimar Republic?

 

[MarkA]

There are two more likely minimal changes needed.

First, Stresemann actually voiced his opposition to Hindenburg's candidature. This would have split the far right vote enough to have Marx elected.

Second, the German Communists followed the Comintern directive and told their supporters to vote for Marx.

Marx only lost by a narrow margin, so a President with the support of the largest parties in the Reichstag and a supporter of the Republic may have saved the state.

 

[Glen]

There are two more likely minimal changes needed.

First, Stresemann actually voiced his opposition to Hindenburg's candidature. This would have split the far right vote enough to have Marx elected.

Yes, I noticed that Stresemann was concerned about Hindenburg as the second round candidate. Would Hindenburg have even been selected in the end if Stresemann had pushed the issue, or would someone else have been the Right's candidate in the second round?

Second, the German Communists followed the Comintern directive and told their supporters to vote for Marx.

Marx only lost by a narrow margin, so a President with the support of the largest parties in the Reichstag and a supporter of the Republic may have saved the state.

That one is an interesting fact. I didn't know that the Comintern had recommended to vote for Marx. Ernst Thalmann appears to have been a bit of a loose cannon (and strangely enough for a rabid extremist, absolutely right when it came to some of his claims about Hindenburg and Hitler). He had a few assassination attempts a few years before. What if Ernst Thalmann had been assassinated and thus not available to obstruct the Comintern's recommendation? That would then possibly throw the election to Marx in the second round.

Marx was Zentrum, but seems to have been reasonable overall. Of course von Popen was Zentrum too, and we know how lousy he turned out. Still, if Marz was the President, I do believe that the Weimar Republic would have done better from 1925-1932, the next presidential election. So, what would happen with a bit better off Weimar that responded without presidential obstruction to the Great Depression? I imagine that there will be still be a shift to a more extreme candidate and parties in 1932, but to whom, and would either far pole have enough clout to govern, or would the middle broker a coalition?

 

[MarkA]

I still think the key is American attitude to the war debts of France and Britain. If the United States had excused or rearraranged those debts, Britain would have been able to persuade France (who by now did nothing in foreign affairs without British support) to do the same with German reparations. With the German economy more stable, the Great Depression would have impacted less severely on Germany and thus preserved its currency and its credit rating. With those secure, the Republic could aleiviate the distress of many of its citizens and thus gain legitimacy in their eyes.

Stresemann was eager to re-enter the political main game by working with other parties to secure positions of power and was also willing to acknowledge the Republic as 'here to stay'. A President who supported the concept of a Republic would be of immense help, but I doubt if the Republic could survive the catostrophic inflation and loss of nerve caused by the GD.

 

[Glen]

I still think the key is American attitude to the war debts of France and Britain. If the United States had excused or rearraranged those debts, Britain would have been able to persuade France (who by now did nothing in foreign affairs without British support) to do the same with German reparations. With the German economy more stable, the Great Depression would have impacted less severely on Germany and thus preserved its currency and its credit rating. With those secure, the Republic could aleiviate the distress of many of its citizens and thus gain legitimacy in their eyes.

Stresemann was eager to re-enter the political main game by working with other parties to secure positions of power and was also willing to acknowledge the Republic as 'here to stay'. A President who supported the concept of a Republic would be of immense help, but I doubt if the Republic could survive the catostrophic inflation and loss of nerve caused by the GD.

My understanding was that the hyperinflation occurred in the early twenties during the Ruhr Crisis. But the GD certainly opened the door wide to the Nazis.

So, it might be nice to have Americans forgiving war debt and inducing Britain and France to reduce reparations. But how would that come about?

And it seems like it would be even more useful to eliminate the Great Depression. Anyone have a clue on that?

 

[Wendell]

Conservative resurgence?

Yes, I noticed that Stresemann was concerned about Hindenburg as the second round candidate. Would Hindenburg have even been selected in the end if Stresemann had pushed the issue, or would someone else have been the Right's candidate in the second round?



That one is an interesting fact. I didn't know that the Comintern had recommended to vote for Marx. Ernst Thalmann appears to have been a bit of a loose cannon (and strangely enough for a rabid extremist, absolutely right when it came to some of his claims about Hindenburg and Hitler). He had a few assassination attempts a few years before. What if Ernst Thalmann had been assassinated and thus not available to obstruct the Comintern's recommendation? That would then possibly throw the election to Marx in the second round.

Marx was Zentrum, but seems to have been reasonable overall. Of course von Popen was Zentrum too, and we know how lousy he turned out. Still, if Marz was the President, I do believe that the Weimar Republic would have done better from 1925-1932, the next presidential election. So, what would happen with a bit better off Weimar that responded without presidential obstruction to the Great Depression? I imagine that there will be still be a shift to a more extreme candidate and parties in 1932, but to whom, and would either far pole have enough clout to govern, or would the middle broker a coalition?

Would Marx be one to go along with a Soviet invasion of Poland, provided West Prussia, and Posen were returned to Germany? Anyway, one of the Generals could sweep into power in 1932 with a rightist coalition, but that would depend on Marx's popularity.

 

[Glen]

Would Marx be one to go along with a Soviet invasion of Poland, provided West Prussia, and Posen were returned to Germany?

I don't really know, but somehow I don't see it from what I've read. But I could easily be wrong on this.

Anyway, one of the Generals could sweep into power in 1932 with a rightist coalition, but that would depend on Marx's popularity.

You mean by elections? Which General? I believe that would make a critical difference. I'd say any rightist coalition that tried to incorporate the Nazis were doomed to failure because Hitler would try to grab power or sabotage things to set himself up for the next elections.

Whether Marx could hold onto the Presidency would depend on his level of success in fighting the depression.

 

[Wendell]

You mean by elections? Which General? I believe that would make a critical difference. I'd say any rightist coalition that tried to incorporate the Nazis were doomed to failure because Hitler would try to grab power or sabotage things to set himself up for the next elections.

Whether Marx could hold onto the Presidency would depend on his level of success in fighting the depression.

All valid points. That's true, the Nazis would pose that problem. Yes, I meant through elections. Are there any thoughts on who Marx would make Reichskanzler?

 

[Glen]

You know, I'm starting to get the feeling that I understand the allure of placing Lettow-Vorbeck in these 'abort Nazi Germany' timelines. If we don't find a way to avoid the Great Depression, it is likely that in the early thirties either a right wing or left wing extremist group will come into power. One of the few fugures we know in German history that would fall into an 'extreme' camp and who might be a popular enough figure to come to power and who might be relatively benign in the exercise of that power is Lettow-Vorbeck. Any others people can think of with similar qualities?

 

[Wendell]

The Kaiser's son

The man who would have been Wilhelm III briefly made a run for the Weimar Presidency in 1932.

 

[Glen]

The man who would have been Wilhelm III briefly made a run for the Weimar Presidency in 1932.

I suspect that we would see the reestablishment of a rather authoritarian monarchy should he come to the presidency.

 

[Wendell]

I suspect that we would see the reestablishment of a rather authoritarian monarchy should he come to the presidency.

That would still likely be an improvement over Hitler.

 

[Glen]

That would still likely be an improvement over Hitler.

Probably, but that doesn't say much. Quite frankly, you might get both! But the fact is, that this would probably end the Weimar Republic and thus fail the AH Challenge.

 

[Wendell]

Probably, but that doesn't say much. Quite frankly, you might get both! But the fact is, that this would probably end the Weimar Republic and thus fail the AH Challenge.

Wilhlem Hohenzollern would need the support to abolish the Republic. Even as an effective Reichsprasident, he might never get that.

 

[Steffen]

Marx was more of a leftist Zentrum politician, more interesting would be the candidate of the DNVP and the DVP, Dr. Karl Jarres, who got 36% in the first round compared to 14% casted in Marx´favor.

Mayor of the industrial city of Duisburg in the Ruhr area, was beaten up by communists in 1919 who wanted to make him carry a red banner which he refused.

Concerning the question of a chancellor for a center coalition, one should look to the carreer civil servants occupying the mayoral seats of the bigger cities. Hans Luther (essen) became chancellor IOTL, Karl Lautenschlager (stuttgart), Adenauer (Cologne), Goerdeler (dresden), scharnagl (munich)

 

[Glen]

Wilhlem Hohenzollern would need the support to abolish the Republic. Even as an effective Reichsprasident, he might never get that.

If he was voted in, we might also think of the Right Wing coming into dominance in the Reichstag. Further, he could rule by decree in a 'state of emergency' and could dissolve the Reichstag. He could from the presidency set the stage over the next year or so for the destruction of the Republic and the resurrection of the monarchy. Most of the prominent members of the right were said to be at best reluctant republicans and could be counted on to support a restoration of the monarchy, especially if it were not Wilhelm II who came to the throne. The left would be livid, but I suspect they would be suppressed before the monarchy was announced.

Hitler was able to establish a dictatorship once he 'assumed' the presidency on the death of Hindenburg. Wilhelm would have had a very good chance to restore the monarchy during the Great Depression if he were president.

Thus, Wilhem Hohenzollern as president would be likely to bring down the Weimar Republic.

 

[Glen]

Marx was more of a leftist Zentrum politician, more interesting would be the candidate of the DNVP and the DVP, Dr. Karl Jarres, who got 36% in the first round compared to 14% casted in Marx´favor.

Mayor of the industrial city of Duisburg in the Ruhr area, was beaten up by communists in 1919 who wanted to make him carry a red banner which he refused.

Sounds like you know him fairly well. So, how could a Jarres presidency be achieved, and how do you see him setting the stage for the Weimar Republic weathering the Great Depression?

Concerning the question of a chancellor for a center coalition, one should look to the carreer civil servants occupying the mayoral seats of the bigger cities. Hans Luther (essen) became chancellor IOTL, Karl Lautenschlager (stuttgart), Adenauer (Cologne), Goerdeler (dresden), scharnagl (munich)

Gee, more research, thanks... Konrad Adenauer might be an interesting one. He had a lot of success as Chancellor of post-war West Germany, so we might posit him as an effective leader in the 30s. What would it take for him to be made Chancellor, however?

So, are you thinking that something like a Jarre presidency and an Adenauer chancellory might be enough for the Weimar Republic to weather the Great Depression?

 

[Wendell]

If he was voted in, we might also think of the Right Wing coming into dominance in the Reichstag. Further, he could rule by decree in a 'state of emergency' and could dissolve the Reichstag. He could from the presidency set the stage over the next year or so for the destruction of the Republic and the resurrection of the monarchy. Most of the prominent members of the right were said to be at best reluctant republicans and could be counted on to support a restoration of the monarchy, especially if it were not Wilhelm II who came to the throne. The left would be livid, but I suspect they would be suppressed before the monarchy was announced.

Hitler was able to establish a dictatorship once he 'assumed' the presidency on the death of Hindenburg. Wilhelm would have had a very good chance to restore the monarchy during the Great Depression if he were president.

Thus, Wilhem Hohenzollern as president would be likely to bring down the Weimar Republic.

The Reichstag voted to give Hitler his powers. As for a return to Monarchy with a Wilhelm Hohenzollern presidency, not all of the Right wanted a restored monarchy, regardless of who it was. The Nazis, specifically Hitler, were thankful that the monarchy was abolished as it was in OTL.