AH Challenge: The Weimar Republic Survives TL

Steffen · Jun 9, 2005

Oh, i´ve read the autobiographie of Hans Luther.

I´m pessismistic about weathering the depression in a sense of avoiding it.
It would basically mean a concerted monetary and economic policy of the major european countries, which means cooperation between germany, france and italy, which is asb at that time, and would possiby need the sterling bloc to succeed which is asb squared.

The idea to weather the depression is more like this:
following basically OTL measures, no cuts in the TeNo, the Technische Notdienst, some kind of state- paid voluntary civilian emergency unit which were used to keep important facilities running during strikes. Most personnel was center-right, so you could face the nazi-communist-social democratic threat of general strike with some kind of immunity,

the decree forbidding para-military organisations and uniforms stands in effect.

MarkA · Jun 9, 2005

There seems an inordinate emphasis on undividuals who, if in positions of power, could 'save the Republic'. In a democracy individuals only represent the movements that carry them to power and they only stay in power while those movements enjoy the support of the electorate.

You can't have people like Adenauer just appearing as a saviour figure when his support base outside of Cologne was almost nil.

Jarres may have got 36% of the vote in the first round in 1925 (I do not know the exact number) but he did do well. That is precisely why the SPD and Democrats decided to throw their support behind Marx. If Jarres had remained a candidate then the communists would certainly have campagined against him and not produced a candidate of their own. A majority of the two million votes cast in OTL for their candidate would have gone to the Centre candidate Marx and he would have been elected. Marx alone would not 'save' the Republic but his election would show that those forces committed to the protection of the Republic were in the ascendency.

Stresemann would be emboldened to push his party further and faster towards exceptence of the inevitable than he managed in OTL. The ultranationalists would be further marginalised and would begin to shrink in numbers and effectiveness. Instead of this being the case in 1927/28, it would materialise two or three years earlier.

A coalition of Centre and SPD parties in power with a right united behind Stresemann acting as a loyal opposition would dissapate ultra nationalist appeal. The German people faced with stable government and an opposition commited to peaceful transfer of power and both commited to the strengthening of the Republican state, would do wonders for the legitimate claims of democracy as the preferable form of government for Germany.

Personalities don't matter that much. After all Hindenburg thought Muller, the SPD Chancellor in 1928 was an exceptional leader. The main problem was the army and the civil service. Both were deeply conservative and anti-Republican. Reforms in recruitment were urgently needed. If such reforms could have been introduced as a result of the strengthening of the commitment to the constitiution by the centre and the left with the reluctant support of the right in 1925/6 , then there may have been enough time to reform these two institutions before thecrucial period of 1933/4. Certainly there would have been enough time to introduce new people and to have them promoted through normal channels to positions of influence and power in the six or seven years before Hitler became a threat.

Glen · Jun 9, 2005

One possibility? A cold saves the Republic.

Okay, here is an early but at first minimalist POD that might save the Republic by the skin of its teeth....and yes, it involves that darling of 20th Century ATLs, Paul von Lettow-Vorbeck.

Okay, so in 1920 just before the Kapp Putsch, Paul von Lettow-Vorbeck catches a very bad cold and is laid up at home during the whole Kapp fiasco. He never has the opportunity to declare for the Kapp Putsch, and thus stays in the Army.

Over the next decade, he rises slowly through the Reichswehr hierarchy, and supplants Kurt von Schleicher in the 1930s. It is Lettow-Vorbeck who gains the ear of President Hindenburg as opposed to Schleicher. Where Schleicher worked behind the scenes to remove Bruning, Lettow-Vorbeck chooses to support him. Lettow-Vorbeck was ardently against the Nazis and the Communists, and thus can reasonably be expected to support Bruning's efforts to exclude them from the Government and to ban their street thugs. With this support, Bruning barely manages to hold on. No von Papen chancellory or even influence on Hindenburg, since it was Schleicher who introduced them and initially supported von Papen. With Bruning in the Chancellory and von Papen in the cold, the SA remain banned, new elections are forestalled keeping the Nazis from getting a larger representation, and there will be no one suggesting Hitler for the Chancellory. Far from it, both Bruning and Lettow-Vorbeck will continue to foster Hindenburg's distaste for the Nazis. Hindenburg will win re-election again but then dies in office. Bruning gains enough power from the vacant Presidency to keep his government going. His economic measures eventually help the economy some (not greatly, but enough), and more importantly they manage to get rid of most reparations. Things settle down a bit with essentially a national unity government of the Center excluding the extremes of the Nazis and the Communists. Gradually more support is established for the Bruning regime since he has gotten most of the reparations taken off (which Hitler took credit for OTL but probably was in actuality the fruits of Bruning's efforts).

The 30s are no picnic for Weimar Germany, but gradually they once again pick up the pieces.

So, when would a new president be elected and who? Where does the government go from here? And how do they deal with the Nazis and Communists? Shut them out and ban them, and allow for time to take its toll as they seem less and less effective to marginally attracted people who instead join one of the less extreme groups? Or do they move more aggressively to quash them?

Ideas, thoughts, comments?

Glen · Jun 9, 2005

MarkA said:
There seems an inordinate emphasis on undividuals who, if in positions of power, could 'save the Republic'. In a democracy individuals only represent the movements that carry them to power and they only stay in power while those movements enjoy the support of the electorate.

Yes, but the Weimar Republic is a much more fragile democracy than some, and it is under a great deal of strain. What I would mostly say is not that it would take the 'right' individuals gaining power to save the Republic but rather keeping out the 'wrong' individuals from power to avoid the destruction of the Republic.

Curtailing some of the disasterous decisions of Hindenburg (who could rule by decree remember) is important.

I think also that avoiding the rise to power of 'obscure' politician von Papen would be good. Many of his actions and influence paved the way for the Nazis.

I can think of half a dozen PODs that would save the Republic in combination without invoking any one individual, but I've been trying to do it with only one initial POD. That usually requires basing it at first on an individual.

You can't have people like Adenauer just appearing as a saviour figure when his support base outside of Cologne was almost nil.

Well, how did he develop his base in OTL post-war? He had the ability to do so, and to do a lot to help a fallen Germany...he proved it in OTL. That means we know he has the skillset and the desire, which we can't say about a lot of possibilties. So then the question becomes, what POD leads to Adenauer becoming a Chancellor over a decade earlier? I imagine that this could happen, the question is how. Anyone have any ideas?

Note that von Papen did rise from obscurity to become Chancellor by just having someone in the right place at the right time suggesting him. Can't Adenauer have the same happen?

Jarres may have got 36% of the vote in the first round in 1925 (I do not know the exact number) but he did do well. That is precisely why the SPD and Democrats decided to throw their support behind Marx. If Jarres had remained a candidate then the communists would certainly have campagined against him and not produced a candidate of their own. A majority of the two million votes cast in OTL for their candidate would have gone to the Centre candidate Marx and he would have been elected. Marx alone would not 'save' the Republic but his election would show that those forces committed to the protection of the Republic were in the ascendency.

I think there are several possible PODs that could lead to a Marx victory in 1925, so that is a good place to start.

Stresemann would be emboldened to push his party further and faster towards acceptence of the inevitable than he managed in OTL. The ultranationalists would be further marginalised and would begin to shrink in numbers and effectiveness. Instead of this being the case in 1927/28, it would materialise two or three years earlier.

Okay, that makes a sort of sense. So Stresemann before he dies steers the party a little closer to the Center. That would help.

A coalition of Centre and SPD parties in power with a right united behind Stresemann acting as a loyal opposition would dissapate ultra nationalist appeal.

I'm not certain that Stresemann would be able to unite the whole right. Shift them a little more towards this position, yes.

The German people faced with stable government and an opposition commited to peaceful transfer of power and both commited to the strengthening of the Republican state, would do wonders for the legitimate claims of democracy as the preferable form of government for Germany.

True, but I would suggest these changes would be slight, not radical. A little better here, a little stronger there. Still, it might be enough.

Personalities don't matter that much. After all Hindenburg thought Muller, the SPD Chancellor in 1928 was an exceptional leader.

Yes, but he also didn't like the SPD as a party, and Schleicher encouraged that dislike once he gained Hindenburg's ear (much to his regret, I am sure, since when he was faced with having to be Chancellor he started to reach out to them, but by then it was von Papen telling Hindenburg to beware and undermining Schleicher).

The main problem was the army and the civil service. Both were deeply conservative and anti-Republican. Reforms in recruitment were urgently needed. If such reforms could have been introduced as a result of the strengthening of the commitment to the constitiution by the centre and the left with the reluctant support of the right in 1925/6,

This is probably true, but would it have been doable. Such changes could have also triggered a military coup attempt as well.

then there may have been enough time to reform these two institutions before the crucial period of 1933/4. Certainly there would have been enough time to introduce new people and to have them promoted through normal channels to positions of influence and power in the six or seven years before Hitler became a threat.

Maybe so, maybe so. Anyone else care to elaborate or comment on these suggestions?

Glen · Jun 10, 2005

Does anyone know what the Weimar Constitution says about the presidency in the event of a vacancy in office? I think initially the powers of the presidency are assumed by the Chancellor, but can anyone confirm that? If this is the case, how long can the Chancellor act as president before they are supposed to choose a new one, that is without changing any laws?

Glen · Jun 11, 2005

Glen Finney said:
Does anyone know what the Weimar Constitution says about the presidency in the event of a vacancy in office? I think initially the powers of the presidency are assumed by the Chancellor, but can anyone confirm that? If this is the case, how long can the Chancellor act as president before they are supposed to choose a new one, that is without changing any laws?

Come on, no one knows the answer to this?

Wendell · Jun 12, 2005

Glen Finney said:
Come on, no one knows the answer to this?

Try this:

Weimar Constituion

Steffen · Jun 12, 2005

Glen Finney said:
Does anyone know what the Weimar Constitution says about the presidency in the event of a vacancy in office? I think initially the powers of the presidency are assumed by the Chancellor, but can anyone confirm that? If this is the case, how long can the Chancellor act as president before they are supposed to choose a new one, that is without changing any laws?

they changed it from chancellor to the president of the Reichsgericht. (=Supreme Court), so when pres. Ebert died in office, Dr. walter Simons became acting president. I don´t have anything to prove it, but my guess would be he´s acting president for up to 60 days which is the normal period in which an election has to take place after some event (dissolution of the Reichstag etc)

Glen · Jun 12, 2005

Steffen said:
they changed it from chancellor to the president of the Reichsgericht. (=Supreme Court), so when pres. Ebert died in office, Dr. walter Simons became acting president.

Is that right? When was this changed? Do you have a reference online?

I don´t have anything to prove it, but my guess would be he´s acting president for up to 60 days which is the normal period in which an election has to take place after some event (dissolution of the Reichstag etc)

The Weimar Constitution doesn't look like it says anything more except 'until the next election'. Very open to interpretation, that...

Glen · Jun 12, 2005

Wendell said:
Try this:

Weimar Constituion

Thank you for the link. That was very helpful.

Molobo · Jun 12, 2005

This is a reply I got on Axis forum
http://forum.axishistory.com/viewtopic.php?p=714132&highlight=#714132

Hi Molobo,

The relevant article (no 51) in the constitution was changed December 17 1932.
version 1919-1932:

Artikel 51. Der Reichspräsident wird im Falle seiner Verhinderung zunächst durch den Reichskanzler vertreten. Dauert die Verhinderung voraussichtlich längere Zeit, so ist die Vertretung durch ein Reichsgesetz zu regeln.
Das gleiche gilt für den Fall einer vorzeitigen Erledigung der Präsidentschaft bis zur Durchführung der neuen Wahl.

(summary: the Chancellor will act in place of the president initially, if the president is unable for a longer time a law will regulate)

After President Ebert died 1925 a law from March 10, 1925 designated the president of the supreme court (Reichsgericht) Simons as the acting president.

version 1932-1933:

Artikel 51. Der Reichspräsident wird im Falle seiner Verhinderung durch den Präsidenten des Reichsgerichts vertreten. Das gleiche gilt für den Fall einer vorzeitigen Erledigung der Präsidentschaft bis zur Durchführung der neuen Wahl

(summary: the president of the supreme court (Reichsgericht) will act in place of the president)

HTH and regards
Mark

Steffen · Jun 12, 2005

Molobo said:
This is a reply I got on Axis forum
http://forum.axishistory.com/viewtopic.php?p=714132&highlight=#714132

Ah. the constitutional change in december 31- coming to effect with it´s publication in the Reichsgesetzblatt in early 32, made constitutional law what was just a more easily changeable federal law for 7 years.

Wendell · Jun 12, 2005

Glen Finney said:
Thank you for the link. That was very helpful.

No problem

benedict XVII · Jun 13, 2005

Eliminating Great Depression

Glen Finney said:
And it seems like it would be even more useful to eliminate the Great Depression. Anyone have a clue on that?

Very simple, instead of following the crazy deflationary policies of the Hoover administration, you open the gates of liquidities in Keynesian fashion

Glen · Jun 13, 2005

benedict XVII said:
Very simple, instead of following the crazy deflationary policies of the Hoover administration, you open the gates of liquidities in Keynesian fashion

Well, while we might never know for certain if that would work, if there is enough support in economic thought for it being a viable possible solution, how do we get it to happen in 1929?

And what will the impact be on Weimar Germany?

Wendell · Jun 13, 2005

I think that any changes have to come from Germany itself, or elsewhere in Europe.

Glen · Jun 14, 2005

Wendell said:
I think that any changes have to come from Germany itself, or elsewhere in Europe.

My suspicion would be that there had to be political change within the Weimar Republic for it to survive overall, but without the Great Depression, it is likely that the Weimar government could limp along until Hindenburg dies. After that, if another president were elected who was more willing to give the Republic a chance, there would be some possibility of the Weimar Republic continuing. Also without the Great Depression, the Nazis and Communists get the surge of support they did in the early 1930s. So the Great Depression might allow for the changes needed in Germany, whereas its presence leads to changes that doomed any chance of a viable Weimar Republic making it to the present day.

Glen · Jun 17, 2005

So, how to get the Weimar Republic to survive?

One POD - Stresemann takes over the Chancellory from Cuno earlier than OTL, true hyperinflation is avoided. Stresemann was better at negotiating with the powers, say we get earlier easing of the War Reparations. Maybe things are going just a bit enough better that by the time of the Beer Hall Putsch he is feeling able to more agressively crack down on the Nazis, and maybe even Hitler gets killed in the arrests. Ludendorff still gets off, but the Nazis don't really recover and Stresemann's coalition holds together, extending his Chancellory. Let's say he continues his successes (he even won a Nobel Peace Prize in OTL), and gradually, painfully, the Weimar Republic grows a little stronger year by year than the one we knew. In 1925 he is popular enough to be elected President on the second ballot (Hindenburg is not approached to run in this tl). Let's say that in 1927 he has a minor heart attack, and gets the best medical advice Germany can provides and some of it actually helps, extending his life for several more years through better health habits and diet. So now we have him living to re-election in 1932. The Depression has hit Germany hard, but Weimar Germany is a little better prepared than in OTL. The communists are still a problem, but the right is mostly behind him and the Nazis are a minor party. They get through some painful years and are starting to stabilize when Stresemann dies in 1935 (I've given him 6 extra years, and that is being generous I suspect). The country is still struggling, but not in danger of collapse. Who is likely to become President and who is Chancellor, and what happens next?

This is just one POD that might work, there are several others.

Steffen · Jun 18, 2005

1. Beer hall putsch: You have a problem:
- it´s in the responsibility of the government of the free state of Bavaria, the Reich does not have any police forces of it´s own.
- intervening by presidential decree based on §48,1 or 48,2 needs a bad BAD situation, and especially intervening in Bavaria is hard for political reasons in many sorts. (in 1923, one of the reasons the Reich intervened in the states of Thuringia and Saxony was to block a possible advance of anti-government forces out of bavaria towards Berlin. A intervention would have internally destroyed the Reichswehr.)

I think to save the WR, you need to focus on the president, his emergency powers are important and the Reichstag, regardless of political affiliation, has a tendency towards ungovernablity.

You could also simply have Friedrich Ebert (social democratic president) actually going to the hospital for some minor treatment so he doesn´t die in office. I think his term would have expired in 1927, and he was young enough for a second term.
Unlikely he would have been beaten in an election.

Glen · Jun 18, 2005

Steffen said:
1. Beer hall putsch: You have a problem:
- it´s in the responsibility of the government of the free state of Bavaria, the Reich does not have any police forces of it´s own.

No, but they have the military (when they decide to cooperate).

- intervening by presidential decree based on §48,1 or 48,2 needs a bad BAD situation, and especially intervening in Bavaria is hard for political reasons in many sorts. (in 1923, one of the reasons the Reich intervened in the states of Thuringia and Saxony was to block a possible advance of anti-government forces out of bavaria towards Berlin. A intervention would have internally destroyed the Reichswehr.)

You think? Well, it wasn't necessary for them to get involved in the Beer Hall Putsch directly, then. But I've seen a few references stating that Stresemann's governing coalition fell apart in part due to his easy treatment of the Putsch. If the Reich government had no ability to be involved in this, why should that be?

I think to save the WR, you need to focus on the president, his emergency powers are important and the Reichstag, regardless of political affiliation, has a tendency towards ungovernablity.

I tend to agree.

[QOUTE]You could also simply have Friedrich Ebert (social democratic president) actually going to the hospital for some minor treatment so he doesn´t die in office. I think his term would have expired in 1927, and he was young enough for a second term.[/QUOTE]

I see he died of Appendicitis. You're right, it would have been easy enough for him to be treated earlier and survive. I believe his term would have been up in 1926 (started 1919 and its 7 years). So he gets reelected and we have the next election in 1933. Does he run for a third term? And would he be reelected?

Unlikely he would have been beaten in an election.

I agree about the first reelection. But what about 1933?