A World War II Without Hitler?

[Geon]

I would like to pose the following for discussion.

Much has been said about how World War II might have been avoided if Adolf Hitler and the Nazis had not come to power. Let us assume the following therefore.

1. POD#1 - Adolf Hitler dies during World War I, one of the many nameless dead of that war.
2. POD#2 - Without Hitler's gift for public speaking the German Worker's Party remains an obscure right-wing party.
3. POD#3 - The Weimar Republic survives by making the necessary political deals to maintain a democratic government and succeeds in helping Germany better ride out the Depression.

Does this mean that World War II doesn't occur? Not really.

Consider - you still have a militant territorial acquisitive Italy under Mussolini. You still have a militant territorial acquisitive Japan under the militarists. And you have a militant territorial acquisitive Soviet Union under Stalin.

With or without Hitler, Benito Mussolini still invades Ethiopia. Likewise, Japan invades China. And in 1940 Stalin likely invades Finland.

Given there is no Germany stirring things up on the continent Italy and Japan likely move more cautiously. Italy may invade Albania but likely will stop there for the moment. Japan presses her attack in China but might be more willing to negotiate a peace at some point to keep what she has gained.

The Soviet Union learns the same lessons it did in OTL regarding its armed forces short comings after the Winter War. Stalin then proceeds to modernize his forces. I can easily see, by 1943 or '44 Stalin attacking the Baltic states and Poland on some pretext. The Baltic states and Poland fall much like they did in OTL but to Russia this time. With Russia now at the gates of Germany that nation, which has - to an extent - kept the treaty of Versailles calls upon France and Britain for help. Whether this help comes is one of the things I want to discuss here.

You now have three strong aggressor states; the Soviet Union, Italy, and Japan. How do you think World War II would unfold here? Would it occur? When would it occur? And what would be the alliances that might form?

 

[bguy]

With or without Hitler, Benito Mussolini still invades Ethiopia. Likewise, Japan invades China. And in 1940 Stalin likely invades Finland.

Would Stalin really risk attacking Finland if Britain and France weren't at war with Germany? Stalin tended to be cautious in foreign affairs, so I can't see him doing something that would create such a high risk of getting the Soviet Union into a war with both Britain and Germany.

The Soviet Union learns the same lessons it did in OTL regarding its armed forces short comings after the Winter War. Stalin then proceeds to modernize his forces. I can easily see, by 1943 or '44 Stalin attacking the Baltic states and Poland on some pretext. The Baltic states and Poland fall much like they did in OTL but to Russia this time. With Russia now at the gates of Germany that nation, which has - to an extent - kept the treaty of Versailles calls upon France and Britain for help. Whether this help comes is one of the things I want to discuss here.

Attacking Poland in such circumstances would definitely trigger war with the UK, France, and Germany. The only way I could see Stalin risking that would be if he had atomic bombs, and the western powers didn't.

 

[Geon]

Would Stalin really risk attacking Finland if Britain and France weren't at war with Germany? Stalin tended to be cautious in foreign affairs, so I can't see him doing something that would create such a high risk of getting the Soviet Union into a war with both Britain and Germany.

Attacking Poland in such circumstances would definitely trigger war with the UK, France, and Germany. The only way I could see Stalin risking that would be if he had atomic bombs, and the western powers didn't.

As to Britain and France intervening. They didn't do so when Hitler moved into Czechoslovakia or Austria which were much closer then Finland. And how would they intervene in Finland which is practically in the Soviets' back yard?

Britian and France might intervene in Poland. But again, the question is how? They would need to use Germany as a springboard for a counteroffensive. And that would mean having to deal with the Germans in some way. The Germans might not like the idea of their nation being used as the base for an attack, thus practically inviting the Soviets to invade.

 

[bguy]

As to Britain and France intervening. They didn't do so when Hitler moved into Czechoslovakia or Austria which were much closer then Finland. And how would they intervene in Finland which is practically in the Soviets' back yard?

Chamberlain hated communism far more than Nazism. (Hence why the UK didn't make the obvious move and befriend Stalin when Hitler started getting aggressive.) Chamberlain was also much more afraid of German military capabilities then Soviet capabilities. (Both because the Germans have proven more formidable in World War 1 than Imperial Russia had and also because German bombers are much closer to UK territory than Soviet bombers would be.) Thus Chamberlain is much more likely to take a firm stand against aggression by Stalin (who he hates more and fears less) than from Hitler.

As for how Britain and France might intervene:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franco-British_plans_for_intervention_in_the_Winter_War

IOTL, Sweden refused to grant British forces transit rights after Hitler threatened to attack Sweden if they allowed British forces through their territory, but in a timeline where Germany is likely allied with Britain, Sweden won't be receiving such threats and thus it is much more likely to agree to let British troops through.

And anyway the real question is not whether Britain and France will intervene but whether is Stalin convinced they won't intervene. Hitler was willing to call Britain and France's bluff, but Stalin was nowhere near as reckless as Hitler, so I don't see him taking the same chance.

Britian and France might intervene in Poland. But again, the question is how? They would need to use Germany as a springboard for a counteroffensive. And that would mean having to deal with the Germans in some way. The Germans might not like the idea of their nation being used as the base for an attack, thus practically inviting the Soviets to invade.

Germany will already be at war with the Soviets as soon as Soviet troops enter Poland. The Weimar government was friendly enough with the Soviets when the Soviets were helping them get around some of the Versailles restrictions, but it's still dominated by anti-communist parties that absolutely do not want Stalin taking Poland. (The Red Army on their border is an existential threat to Germany.) Thus far from complaining about British and French troops, the Germans will be begging Britain and France to send all the troops they can to fight alongside German forces.

 

[Garrison]

Without Hitler and his reckless gambling I can't see any other government being willing to roll the dice as many times as he did. You might get some sort of European conflict but it took Hitler's determination to have a war of conquest to transform it into a global conflict.

 

[Cudymcar]

Without Anschluss and Czechoslovakia as precedents Stalin wouldn't be going all militant territorial acquisitive. Without Munich there'd be no Soviet invasions of Poland and Finland. Until 1939 Stalin's foreign policy was quite decent.