A Tale of an AH Gaming Console War

[Electric Monk]

I was about to say, I think this would seriously help the 3DO, one with ane especially reduced prce too, as this gives them an entire year ahead of their competitors. I imagine the release order then, going something like this: 3DO ---> Sega Saturn (1996) ---> Nintendo (or should it be Ultra?) 64 (late 1996, as it did in OTL).

Yeah, say Christmas '94 for the 3DO; fall '95 or spring '96 for ATL Saturn; fall '96 for Nintendo.

The 3DO really doesn't need to launch in '93, especially with the Sega CD and Nintendo Playstation around. The extra year makes it more like the OTL Saturn (outclassed, but not by as much) and of course cheaper.

The migration of several Western developers flocking to the 3DO, plus a smarter Trip Hawkins, looks very attractive to the west from the business standpoint, I'd think. With the failure of the Atari Jaguar, might they try to test out first party stuff to get into the software-only business? Despite the fact they just failed with their own console, that helps add a strong brand name to the 3DO. This also helps make it more slightly identifiable and mainstream if a big company like that puts their chips down for Panasonic. The beginning of their aid of western developers then?

As I recall the 3DO got a number of PC game ports, like Star Control II, and I suspect a more successful 3DO could get quite a few more.

Atari was on their way out, once the Jaguar failed, but I'm sure 3DO could buy the Atari Games brand and start their own first party studio.

Is there any way we can try to reconcile the differences between Sega of America and Sega of Japan on their choices for graphical chips? If we imagine that Sega of America will eventually nearly take over most of the business for the collective company, then it's no contest, but I'd like to try to get them to be equal partners, at least in some way.

So keep Hitachi for the Dreamcast whenever it gets here, right? If the Dreamcast of OTL is any example, than it might be wise on my part to do so. Perhaps Hitachi can be used to help further that bridge between the west and east over Sega's future, or at least be a stepping stone?

As I said the Hitachi SH4 is a very good chip at the time, arguably better then PowerPC, MIPS, Intel, Sparc and so forth for a game console.

The ATL Dreamcast will likely be launched later. Possible consequences:

• Broadband modem?
• The later the launch the faster the CPU but I'm not sure how much later = a whole different CPU choice.
• Likewise, with the GPU, PowerVR is almost certainly out given the later launch which means 3dfx probably gets the contract, unless Nvidia has something to offer.

Actually, if Sega is eventually going to adopt an Xbox Live-like service somewhere down the line, this could go very well for her for downloadable content for games, no? Not to mention all of the classics we presume this better Saturn will have.

Random interesting fact: IOTL Sega lost the source code for many of their Saturn games (including Panzer Dragoon Saga…*sigh). They literally cannot do anything but emulate them—and the Saturn is a total bitch to emulate, even with modern processors.

It's why a remake of Panzer Dragoon Saga, Shining Force III, and so forth are unlikely ever to be made: they'd have to be done from the ground up reverse engineering them.

As for the better Saturn controller, maybe they just keep the 3D controller? After all, if the console is going to be completely 3D, it all works out well.

I was just saying it becomes the default controller instead of shipping with NiGHTS. Same controller (and the analogue triggers of OTL and the ATL will be a nice arguing point for Sega) just bundled with the console instead of coming later.

I'd imagine one of the biggest upsets, despite textures and such, will be load times for the new N64-PS1 hybrid. As cartridges had lower ones, and Nintendo is abandoning them in this ATL, it might be a very real problem they'll have to take on for early games, and maybe through the console's entire life cycle. But with whatever chip Nintendo and Sony chooses, I'd imagine it might have better sound than it did in OTL, though I'm not sure exactly the limits of what that could be. Ideas?

On load times, Nintendo could use a bigger memory buffer or a faster drive (their '96 launch means they have more leeway on both fronts as regards cost).

On sound chip, think Sony Playstation quality—the original PSX is still considered one of the best CD players ever made.

Actually, despite it being hypothetical, that's actually quite a nice idea for a controller concept. I'd think that they could also be the first to introduce double left and right buttons in the back, something Sony historically did in OTL, and Sega may have to catch up with this (or at least it be a defining factor of Nintendo now). Sega could probably just find other ways to make games that would otherwise utilize both and assign them creatively to something else. I'd imagine they both might try for something slimmer than in OTL though, if just to make them a bit more aesthetically presentable.

I'd think more like the N64 controller: two shoulder buttons, one trigger button (though, of course, in the ATL you'd actually be able to reach all three).

Sega has six face buttons and two analogue triggers, that compares favourably with two good and four crappy face buttons (or Nintendo might keep the SNES four face button standard) plus 2-3 shoulder buttons/triggers on the ATL N64.

I'd think that Nintendo adding a second camera-analogue stick (Gamecube style) makes sense… except that analogue sticks are simply too untested in the mid-90s.

Speaking of controllers, it's possible that Panasonic and the M2 brings in dual analogue sticks and four shoulder buttons as they get to learn from everybody else.

Heh, maybe even call it the 'Sega Neptune'? I do like the idea of Sega making both a Genesis+CD console; maybe even discontinuing the regular Genesis and CD for this idea so as to cut down on production costs? I'd imagine it'd be better as you could pick and choose what you'd want to do with it without having to get an add-on if you wanted to do CD-based games. And an SNES color palette might make it appealing to nominally Nintendo based gamers too.

As for a new Sonic game...maybe hold off on Sonic CD and release it for this new combo? That would help it even more, as Sonic CD is heralded one of the best 2D Sonic games of the series.

Once the price gets low enough, you can discontinue the Genesis but the CD add-on is still needed for older Genesis gamers. I'm not sure you need or want to call it the Neptune (heh) but the Genesis Duo or something probably works. You do, however, need the CD add-on to have some success—perhaps Sonic CD and then Sonic CD 2 for the Duo version?

 

[HueyLong]

A few notes: I believe Sony and Microsoft, if they become big partners with the console companies, will try and use their contracts to push their own peripherals. As of 7th generation, you could see an earlier Zune with connectivity to the Sega Whatever (maybe even function as a memory device?), and Sony pushing memory sticks and the like. Also, the format wars happen in the 7th generation- might Sony and Nintendo split ways if Nintendo refuses to adopt the more expensive and restrictive Bluray format?

One big difference: IOTL, the thing that pushed the need for internal hard drives was the Xbox. If not for Microsoft stepping in, Sony/Nintendo will push their own memory peripherals as long as they can, Sega will do much the same, and Panasonic will likely follow this trend. We could well see the modern era with nary a hard drive to be seen.

One big thing about the 3DO- it tried to do what the Xbox did as an underdog- it marketed itself as a multimedia platform. I would expect this to continue with the M2. In fact, if you still wanted to see Apple get involved, with Sony and Microsoft pushing their own peripherals and connectivity, Apple could try and help with the media interface and peripherals of whatever comes after the M2. I'm imagining a clickwheel controller replacing the D-pad (which is mostly irrelevant now, and the clickwheel could have some cool applications, in addition to providing extra face buttons.) But thats seventh generation.

One big thing about your Wii/PS3 dreams- the Wii would not come about. The reason for it was because of Nintendo's lag in technology. Here, they're likely competing on roughly equal terms and thus, don't push for innovation quite as much. The Wii was a gamble, and Nintendo wouldn't take it in a better situation.

As for naming, both Nintendo and Sega liked for their name to be dominant, which is different than what Sony and Microsoft have done. For that reason, I suspect that after the Dreamcast, there will be some random name and after the PlayStation, there will be some random name.

Anyways, here's my prediction on the console wars:

Fifth Generation

1. Nintendo Ultra 64*- Nintendo talent and first party resources, Sony hardware, second release, they take the cake. They are definitely the biggest winners.

2nd and 3rd place are a bit harder to decide. The 3DO has an earlier release date and higher specs (an oddity, this means they will do well at first and experience a bump late in the era) But they lack the development talent and industry know-how of Sega. Sega, meanwhile, is hampered by the later release date.

OTL it went Sony and Nintendo, with Sega and 3DO barely on the radar.

* or whatever you're calling it

Sixth Generation

M2 (3DO's successor) likely hits shelves in late '98. Dreamcast mid-'99. Nintendo early 2000.

1. Sega Dreamcast- Second release date, good specs, good development talent and a late game bump from their online system. Also, assuming they are buddies with Microsoft Game Studios, they get the killer app of the generation: Halo.

And once again, second and third can be contested. Nintendo still has more talent, but that later release date can hurt it. Panasonic might squeeze a close second, which gives them reason enough to stay on till the next generation. Note that these generations, while analogous in most terms of technology, are actually slightly ahead chronologically of our own.

*For reasons noted above, I doubt PlayStation will stick

Seventh Generation (ours) can't really be called. But there will be no Wii-analogue shaking things up.

 

[My Style is Impetuous]

With the Playstation and the Xbox butterflied away what would become of some of the larger IP's of today.

-Would Halo have stayed an obscure 3rd person shooter for the PC?
-Would Grand Theft Auto stayed on the PC and not gained its mass popularity?
-Which console does Final Fantasy land on?

etc.

 

[HueyLong]

With the Playstation and the Xbox butterflied away what would become of some of the larger IP's of today.

-Would Halo have stayed an obscure 3rd person shooter for the PC?
-Would Grand Theft Auto stayed on the PC and not gained its mass popularity?
-Which console does Final Fantasy land on?

etc.

Assuming Bungie still contracts with Microsoft Game Studios, then the Sega Dreamcast of TTL will get this killer app.

I think GTA would try for a move to the consoles- its a logical step. I doubt Nintendo would welcome them, so either the M2 or the Dreamcast can grab this IP. I believe the M2 was better at running straight computer ports, and Panasonic may be less worried about image, so my bet is it goes there, with maybe a port after its success to Sega.

Final Fantasy stays with Nintendo for the most part. They may release ports later for Sega, but Nintendo always had the better relations with Square.

 

[Electric Monk]

3DO & 3DO II/M2

I've been thinking about the 3DO. Assuming it's a Saturn level success (9 million or so) I'm not sure 3DO would sell the M2 tech[1] to Panasonic. If it's something like 15 million, then likely not.

However that still leaves 3DO with the same inherent problem—how to sell a console without price supporting it via software licensing fees.

If 3DO split the software licensing fees with the hardware makers in proportion to how many of their versions of the console sold we might see a really aggressive internal price war—albeit with some consumer confusion.

We could see Panasonic becoming the biggest/most important 3DO member which leads to them taking over for the seventh generation of consoles.

However say a five million sold 3DO (2.5 times OTL) could probably still see Panasonic buying the hardware as OTL.

Finally does Panasonic's M2 see success in Japan? Certainly 3DO II would meet the same fate as the Xbox, but if Panasonic does buy the M2 I imagine they can move some stuff in Japan.

---

Optical Media

The 3DO II is too early for DVDs, and Sega wouldn't eat as many dollars as Sony did to stick DVD in the PS2 (since the ATL Dreamcast would likely have similar launch dates to the OTL PS2), but…*Nintendo.

IOTL, of course, they went with Panasonic custom-designed discs (basically mini-DVDs) but ITTL they have a close relationship with Sony and they're launching probably as per OTL with the ATL Gamecube which is later than the PS2 and therefore DVD drives are cheaper.

Does Sony—if Sony and Nintendo retain a close relationship—convince Nintendo to stick a DVD drive in the Gamecube?


The 3DO II/M2 probably uses a custom optical disk like the Dreamcast with 1GB or so, the ATL Dreamcast probably does the same thing but more like 1.5GB.

--

Hardware Design

With Sony on board does Nintendo follow the OTL PS2 lead of advanced but hard to program for? They've won the previous generation so they don't have the OTL impetus to make something easy to develop for as OTL Gamecube was.

Sega, certainly, does go for an easy to develop for system. They lost to Nintendo, the OTL and ATL Sega Saturn are probably equally hard to program for, and they're more influenced by Sega of America.

The 3DO II is probably an M2 souped up to OTL Dreamcast performance, still with the dual processors the 3DO and Sega Saturn used.

--

Online.

Sega has always been a pioneer on that front. I imagine the ATL Dreamcast launches with SegaNet and several online games—possibly even Phantasy Star Online. Broadband modem?

Nintendo has always sucked at it (and Sony took until the PS3 to be good on that front) although with the Wii they sort of get it.

3DO probably gets it but I don't know if Panasonic does/would. However, like the Dreamcast, they're a little early to do broadband.

M2 (3DO's successor) likely hits shelves in late '98. Dreamcast mid-'99. Nintendo early 2000.

Remember that a) the 3DO was in '94 and more successful, b) that the Saturn was the fall of '95 instead of the surprise summer '95 launch and was much more successful, and c) the N64 didn't face competition from the PSX.

OTL
Saturn / Dreamcast
Japan—22 November, 1994 / 27 November, 1998
America—11 May, 1995 / 9 September, 1999

So about four years apart. Let's say the 3DO does a similar 9-10 million sold (albeit with no Japanese sales). That points to late '98 for the 3DO II/M2 as you said.

However the ATL Saturn is released both later (probably spring '95 Japan, fall '95 in America) and is more successful—that points to late '99 or spring '00 in Japan and fall '00 in North America.

Likewise, with Nintendo, they probably hit their OTL release dates (June in Japan, September in America; both 1996) as those were based on when Mario 64 was done and not really anything else.

That points to their OTL Gamecube launch dates of fall '01—especially since they won three generations in a row.


Basically the 3DO is the Dreamcast, the Dreamcast is the PlayStation 2, and the Gamecube is the Gamecube and there is no Xbox.

One big thing about your Wii/PS3 dreams- the Wii would not come about. The reason for it was because of Nintendo's lag in technology. Here, they're likely competing on roughly equal terms and thus, don't push for innovation quite as much. The Wii was a gamble, and Nintendo wouldn't take it in a better situation.

Nintendo choose not compete on hardware performance, not because of any lag in technology. After all IBM makes the PPE unit at the core of the Cell and the Xenon… I'm quite sure IBM would have had happily sold Nintendo a Microsoft-like CPU (3 PPE's together) or some other hardware of similar performance.

That said, Nintendo likes to make money on their hardware. Accepting several hundred dollars lost on each console plus a $399 pricepoint was probably unacceptable unless they had any other choice.

Given the unanticipated success of the casual focused Nintendo DS (Nintendo stated the DS, the Gameboy, and the Gamecube/Wii would be three pillars) Nintendo did have a choice—abandon the hardcore gamers, a market no more than 50-100 million worldwide, and go for the larger casual market as Sony did with the PSX and to a lesser extent the PS2.

As for naming, both Nintendo and Sega liked for their name to be dominant, which is different than what Sony and Microsoft have done. For that reason, I suspect that after the Dreamcast, there will be some random name and after the PlayStation, there will be some random name.

Agreed, but note that that the Playstation (note, in Nintendo's plans the "s" wasn't capitalized) was just the name of the CD add-on for the SNES. Nintendo probably sticks with Nintendo 64 for the next one. Who knows what Nintendo would name things.

If the Saturn is successful, Sega might stick with their planet theme—Jupiter (the cartridge version of the Saturn IOTL), Neptune, or some such.

It could the 3DO II, the M2, whatever—it depends on if 3DO or Panasonic controls it, and it depends on whether they use the 3DO brand name plus a number, or rename it entirely—3DO M2 seems like a reasonable compromise.

Final Fantasy stays with Nintendo for the most part. They may release ports later for Sega, but Nintendo always had the better relations with Square.

One should note they'll keep this relationship because a) Playstation CD add-on for the SNES give Squaresoft quite a bit of extra RPG room… Chrono Trigger & FF VI with anime cut-scenes? b) CD instead of cartridge for the N64 or course.




[1] Which in the ATL is probably something more like Dreamcast level power, though of a similar dual PowerPC design.

 

[HueyLong]

RE: The Wii and Nintendo tech: There was a lag in technology. Compare the Gamecube specs (and actual performance) with that of the PS2 or Xbox. And then came in third for that generation. And yes, part of it is their console philosophy. But good hardware demands losing money on the actual console.

They made a conscious decision not to compete in terms of technology with the Wii. And whatever may be said about the Wii's success now, it was a gamble. The DS did not change the core market of mobile gaming and did not set out to; the Wii did change the core market of console gaming and did set out to. The Wii could have failed as some gimmick console like the Virual Boy, and Nintendo realized that. Nintendo would not take such a gamble if they were on top or in second.

 

[Electric Monk]

RE: The Wii and Nintendo tech: There was a lag in technology. Compare the Gamecube specs (and actual performance) with that of the PS2 or Xbox. And then came in third for that generation. And yes, part of it is their console philosophy. But good hardware demands losing money on the actual console.

They made a conscious decision not to compete in terms of technology with the Wii. And whatever may be said about the Wii's success now, it was a gamble. The DS did not change the core market of mobile gaming and did not set out to; the Wii did change the core market of console gaming and did set out to. The Wii could have failed as some gimmick console like the Virual Boy, and Nintendo realized that. Nintendo would not take such a gamble if they were on top or in second.

Gamecube performance was notably higher than the PS2, and marginally below that of the Xbox. Good hardware doesn't demand losing money—the N64 had the best specs of the fifth generation and Nintendo always made money on the hardware, the GCN had the second-best specs of the sixth generation and almost always made money.

The DS was designed for Japan, an effort to reverse the growing decline of gaming there. In that, it worked—the DS owns Japan, via casual "brain-age" gamers and the like. The DS did, in fact, set out to change the core market of mobile gaming and that's why Nintendo continued to talk up the Gameboy for some time as they were unsure if the DS would flop.

I tend to agree that the Wii was a deliberate gamble—but Nintendo also dislikes to lose money and it seems clear that seventh generation consoles require losing money on them.

 

[HueyLong]

Gamecube performance was notably higher than the PS2, and marginally below that of the Xbox. Good hardware doesn't demand losing money—the N64 had the best specs of the fifth generation and Nintendo always made money on the hardware, the GCN had the second-best specs of the sixth generation and almost always made money.

I know that they made money on each console sold and while theoretical performance may have been higher (did not know that), they never had games that performed well above either of the other consoles. Performance was constantly criticized for the Gamecube. May have been developer error, as the Gamecube attracted a fair bit of shovelware. That, and the fact that their development cycle ended earlier than that of the PS2.

The DS was designed for Japan, an effort to reverse the growing decline of gaming there. In that, it worked—the DS owns Japan, via casual "brain-age" gamers and the like. The DS did, in fact, set out to change the core market of mobile gaming and that's why Nintendo continued to talk up the Gameboy for some time as they were unsure if the DS would flop.

I tend to agree that the Wii was a deliberate gamble—but Nintendo also dislikes to lose money and it seems clear that seventh generation consoles require losing money on them.

I don't think they would necessarily take the same gamble, however. If they come in second or first in the sixth generation, I think they may bite the bullet and lose money or come up with some other innovation to cut costs.

It also brings up the chance of Sony leaving by the seventh generation......

 

[Electric Monk]

I know that they made money on each console sold and while theoretical performance may have been higher (did not know that), they never had games that performed well above either of the other consoles. Performance was constantly criticized for the Gamecube. May have been developer error, as the Gamecube attracted a fair bit of shovelware. That, and the fact that their development cycle ended earlier than that of the PS2.

As I recall performance was criticized on the Gamecube because it didn't measure up to Xbox in certain ways, not the PS2—compare, for instance, RE4 on the GCN and the PS2. Here is a general spec chart.

The PS2 was incredibly hard to program for. It used an entirely different approach to the CPU than a normal CPU, and had a lot of co-processors. Forget the Saturn's dual processors… this was actually more work. The PS2 also had a weak GPU, relative to the other consoles.

Think of it like this: a normal CPU uses small pipes (bandwidth) connected to large buckets (cache) before it reaches the waterwheel (processor)—this is fine for most stuff, but media applications like games send too much data for the bandwidth available and so it's sent to cache first. The Emotion Engine IOTL uses very large pipes with small buckets. A different and sort of weird model, but one better for stuff like games and floating point intensive operations.

Now the PS2 model is probably the better way, but at the time it was brand new and with the co-processors very hard to program for. See here and here for the technical details.

At the end of the day the Gamecube was so easy to develop for that some of the very earliest games (Rouge Squadron II) looked nearly as good as anything made later. The PS2, on the other hand, kept improving as people became more familiar and Sony got around to writing technical docs (early PS2 developers actually relied on the first of those articles I linked because Sony's tech stuff was in Japanese and sucked anyway).

I don't think they would necessarily take the same gamble, however. If they come in second or first in the sixth generation, I think they may bite the bullet and lose money or come up with some other innovation to cut costs.

It also brings up the chance of Sony leaving by the seventh generation......

Oh I agree ATL Nintendo may not take the DS/Wii gamble—after all the PSX was highly successful in Japan with casual gamers… although the PS2 was not. An interesting data point.

But, at least on the controller front, I could see the Wii come about as Miyamoto is pretty much God at Nintendo and he's always seeking ways to make the controller more accessible.

However the ATL Wii probably does have a lot better graphics[1] which either means Nintendo loses money, or partners more closely with Sony: perhaps splitting the software licensing fees as long as both split the hardware losses/profits.



[1] Interestingly doing 480p with a console that could do 720p would result in a way more detailed world—think of PC gaming where turning all effects on always looks better than upping the resolution.

Perhaps the ATL Wii takes that path. 480p gaming with a console of equal horsepower to the OTL PS3/Xbox360. Games would actually look better in most ways than the "HD" console, and it wouldn't need a big expensive TV.

 

[HueyLong]

Just found this.... had never heard of it. Apple's game console.

 

[Electric Monk]

Just found this.... had never heard of it. Apple's game console.

You've probably never heard of it because it sucked bad. Overpriced for a console, with no games and no developer support, launching into a crowded market at the same time as everybody else.

One of Apple's many (mis)adventures in the '90s.