A Spanish-Moroccan War in 2002

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Interesting scenario, very novel.
The thing is though with a few well placed bombs the land the war started over could easily be destroyed :D

Haven't properly read it yet so it could well be mentioned but.... What of all the Moroccans in Spain?

Hes mentioned them...in passing.


I, for one, welcome our new Conquistador overlords. :D
 
And, as I promised, a 2nd update, albeit shorter than usual, with the Fall of Melilla and the first hints of Operation Pink:

A WAR ON THE STRAITS: DAY 2, JULY 18TH 2002


10AM: After two days of conversations and international pressure, the Straits are reopened to civilian traffic. There is little point to its closing now that the Moroccan fleet and airforce cannot pose a significant threat. Spanish and American governments agree that American warships based at Rota control the civilian traffic through the Straits: Around 1000 ships are waiting at southern spain and Portugal ports. Anyway, the divisions moving south for an eventual invasion of Morocco will still need a couple of days to be ready.

In Madrid, the traditional 18th july demonstration by francoist nostalgics starts under heavy security measures.

Evacuation by sea and helicopter of Spanish soldiers at Melilla, mainly intelligence officials, Special operations soldiers and soldierwomen starts while their comrades try to hold the line at the city gates.

1030AM: Situation in downtown Madrid worsens as neofascist demonstrators celebrate July 18th by attacking arab stores at the Lavapies district. Molotov Cocktails launched against the M-30 mosque, the largest mosque in Europe. When Moroccan immigrants retaliate, a large scale riot erupts. This situation is repeated in almost all major Spanish cities, with coordinated attacks from extreme right-wingers on Islamic districts and retaliation attacks by angry immigrants.

11AM: The commander at Melilla asks for a ceasefire to his Moroccan counterpart to discuss terms for an honourable surrender without too much damage to civilians, while the evacuation of the city continues as fast as ships can leave the port.

In Madrid, planners at the Ministry of Defense realize that the Spanish airforce has only air-to-ground missiles for at most 2 or 3 days worth of combat. More missiles must be bought at once. The fleet is also starting to run out of ammo.

Rioting breaks out at banlieue districts in several major French cities.

12PM: After several failed tries to contact and a short but tense conversation, both the Spanish and Moroccan commanders at the Melilla theatre of operations agree to a Spanish surrender of the city to prevent a great loss of civilian lives.

In Ceuta, the situation is stable; with the Spaniards holding off the Moroccans but unable to break the siege due to numerical inferiority. The Moroccans have been able to capture some slums and an industrial park in the southern edge of the city, but cannot advance further due to the strong defensive position the Spaniards have [look Ceuta up at google maps and see how that city’s geography is a nightmare for any attacker; it’s like Gibraltar on steroids]

12.30PM: Rioting in Madrid, Sevilla, Valencia, Murcia and Barcelona going on with full intensity. The mayor of Madrid is seriously considering to ask for military help and put the city under martial law.

To complicate things further, ETA decides to join the party by murdering a Guardia Civil agent at a roadblock near San Sebastián.

After 36 hours of closure, the Spanish airspace is reopened, except for an exclusion zone 100 miles around the straits. Thousands of tourists make long queues waiting for the next plane in crowded airports patrolled by soldiers and guarded by tanks and APC’s.

1PM: the last ship leaves Melilla port; minutes later the Spanish defenders surrender to the Moroccan army.

In Algiers, Spanish diplomats (some of them actually being intelligence agents) reach an agreement with Algerian counterparts.

Some other diplomats and secret agents are travelling towards Tindouf, in Southern Algeria…

1.15PM: News of the fall of Melilla make it to international media. All over Morocco, crowds gather in the streets to celebrate the Liberation of Melilla, hoping that Ceuta follows soon and the war is over.

In Spain, whatever little opposition to the war remained, most of it disappears when the first images of Legion soldiers surrendering to Moroccan forces and the Moroccan flag waving above Melilla’s town hall are broadcasted.

1.30PM: King Juan Carlos makes his 2nd speech in two days pointing out that Melilla was surrendered to prevent a great loss of civilian lives and that the war effort will continue until Melilla is liberated and the Spanish possessions in North Africa are acknowledged by Morocco.

Celebrations continue at Morocco and other Islamic countries.

Around 40000 civilians from Ceuta and Melilla have been evacuated to mainland Spain. Many have managed to find a place at family or friends’ houses, while the rest are giving a serious headache to the Spanish government. Finally, after hours of calls and negotiations, the refugees are installed at the same hotels all over Andalusia that thousands of tourists abandoned the day before, with the Spanish government paying the bill.

2PM: Moroccan units complete their occupation of Melilla while the last ships carrying Spanish troops head to the mainland. Melilla will be put under curfew and martial law until a definitive ceasefire is reached.

As if to counter the Moroccan euphoria, the Spanish airforce launches the first major strike of the day, and the biggest one in the entire war, when 93 planes operating from the bases in southern spain we already know and the Canary Islands bomb the civilian airports of Rabat, Casablanca, Tangiers, Nador, and Fez to prevent the landing of supplies sent by the Arab League.

In the northern tip of Morocco, the triangle formed by Ceuta, Tangiers and Tetouan has become a nightmarish landscape of bombed roads filled by refugees and soldiers, wrecked equipment and craters created by the constant air, naval and artillery bombardments.
 
Not quite sure what Britain could do about it, unless your suggesting we nuke somewhere? Seriously, while Britain, if it choose to join either side would make a big difference short of such intervention, which would take time, it can't do a lot other than seek to protect Gibraltar and its population from stray fire.

Steve, I'm not suggesting that the UK would be insane enough to try a 'man in the middle' tactic to try and quell things. More likely is that, in this scenario, Tony Blair is on the phone to both the Spanish PM and the King of Morocco followed up by phone calls by Bush, Cirac, Berlusconi and Mubarak (he stands to lose traffic via the Suez if the Straight remains closed). This would be enough to get both sides to call a ceasefire - if not on the day (perhaps by nightfall?) I would suggest shortly after.


I agree but things are going very rapidly and I don't think either side are listening. The Moroccans are going to feel the aggrieved party in that the Spanish started shooting 1st and also, the year after 9-11 are not really going to be in a position to do anything that looks like a climb-down. With their bases under attack the Spanish aren't likely to listen to anything without a ceasefire and have their plan indigo.

Commerce trumps all even after 9/11 - Morocco actually stood apart from a lot of Arab (Berber?) nations by providing a good deal of Intel to the USA and also acting on terror cells inside of it. Morocco wanted to a deal in shared intel as well that the CIA could provide it to crush these group and provide the current King some stability. Whatever is said by the President of the USA and the PM of the UK will be listened to and acted upon.

Spain? It's a different story. I can't say that I understand Spanish politics well enough to know if the US has enough influence to get Spain to back down. Given Spain's quick exit of Iraq following the Madrid bombing I rather doubt it. However, France and Italy both have some clout with Spain under the auspices of the EU and they may be able to 'convey' a similar message of cease fire to Spain.

Can it stay open in the middle of a modern war. Don't think both sides are using a lot of missiles and the bulk of the Moroccan fleet and air force seem to be down but its still rather a free fire zone. If nothing else interest rates on anything using the straits will be crippling even if nothing gets attacked. Also neutrality will not matter much with racial and religious factors coming into play. As such, if there are vital convoys they will go through, under heavy defensive support but I doubt if anyone is going to be willing to risk anything that isn't vital. Possibly if the US sent a major fleet into the straits with orders to blast anybody who fired on them you might not get some error or some idiot really ramping things up but I wouldn't like to rely on it.

I quite agree with you here but I think that the majority of commerce would either stop in the water, port somewhere or steer clear. Why risk your huge freighter (on mines, errant cruise missiles, etc) especially when Lloyds won't cover it! Armed or not, most would not brave the Straight of Gibraltar with a conflict raging between both sides.

It depends on how much things are being driven at pretty much mob levels. Also doesn't sound very much like either side are talking to each other at all. Without that the Spanish can't stop while their settlements are under attack and the Moroccans won't be willing while their being bombed and a ceasefire could enable the Spanish to reinforce their bases.

Steve

Steve, don't get me wrong and you make very excellent points; this scenario is very very cool and I believe is mentioned in a book I read a while ago entitled "Future Wars". So of course it's plausible.

But I think that Morocco is a very Europeanized North African nation and that such a conflict that endangers and incredibly strategic passage especially in light of the current global situ in 2002 would not be allow to turn into a full conflagration.

I wonder what Germany would make of this?

Will
 
Steve, don't get me wrong and you make very excellent points; this scenario is very very cool and I believe is mentioned in a book I read a while ago entitled "Future Wars". So of course it's plausible.

But I think that Morocco is a very Europeanized North African nation and that such a conflict that endangers and incredibly strategic passage especially in light of the current global situ in 2002 would not be allow to turn into a full conflagration.
First of all, thanks for the credit. :D

second, Morocco's westernization may be one of the reasons why the great powers may not want to pressure too much. They are fairly sure that Spain can handle Morocco alone, and they don't want to alienate one of the few prowestern muslim countries. Also, once the straits are reopened with the US Navy offering protection to civil navigation and the Moroccan airforce unable to offer a credible threat, I think that the US and NATO would let Spain finish the job alone; which would happen in 7 to 10 days.

EDIT: Also, no updating today, sorry.
 
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I love this. It's a Falklands War for the post-9/11 era! I can almost see the posts on Free Republic and the articles on Guardian Unlimited. Pity it takes place before YouTube and DailyKos, though.

Personally, I really can't see a war exactly like this happening; Morocco might be neither First World nor democratic, but it's certainly Westernized enough not to press a war. No wars between democracies and all that. I imagine that any war like this would immediately lead to more negotiators flying in the air than missiles.
 
Personally, I really can't see a war exactly like this happening; Morocco might be neither First World nor democratic, but it's certainly Westernized enough not to press a war. No wars between democracies and all that. I imagine that any war like this would immediately lead to more negotiators flying in the air than missiles.

Just because a state is Westernized doesn't mean that it necessarily believes in "no wars between democracies" and pacifism.

Tribe, nation, and religion, "the ashes of their fathers and the temples of their gods," aren't necessarily forgotten just b/c one is (relatively) rich.
 
It's not that. Westernized-ish nations are:

(a) Less likely to risk war because of the economic ruin it could bring,

(b) More likely to have to contend with a more powerful backlash from its citizens,

(c) More likely to have to deal with the diplomatic fallout from the international community, the loss of prestige, etc.
 
It's not that. Westernized-ish nations are:

(a) Less likely to risk war because of the economic ruin it could bring,

(b) More likely to have to contend with a more powerful backlash from its citizens,

(c) More likely to have to deal with the diplomatic fallout from the international community, the loss of prestige, etc.

Re: (b), what if most Moroccans support the war? And if (b), the gov't might not care about (a) or (c).
 

Hecatee

Donor
A consequence of such a war would be a massive surge in fish and shrimp costs in all of Europe because while the fishermen are indeed europeans the fish and shrimps are cleaned in Marocco before being sent back to Europe...
 
First of all, thanks for the credit. :D

Doctor, I was giving credit for the comments to Steve not the Spanish-Moroccan Conflict (as it became later known as :)) that credit is all your sir.

You've come up with an excellent concept and I hope you continue to flesh it out.

But perhaps you should include an intervention attempt by an alliance or foreign and show the reasons why it would fail.

What would be interesting to know - would the dormant terror cells in Spain be activated to take advantage? With Spain's military and intel shifted south would the Madrid train bombing or similar be likely to occur at an earlier date?

Good luck,
Will
 
But perhaps you should include an intervention attempt by an alliance or foreign and show the reasons why it would fail.

What would be interesting to know - would the dormant terror cells in Spain be activated to take advantage? With Spain's military and intel shifted south would the Madrid train bombing or similar be likely to occur at an earlier date

1-Yes, I am working on it; it is obvious that the big dogs are going to try something; and I will include that in the revised and finished TL that will be posted in the Timelines forum when it's done.

2-Probably yes, working on it.
 

Neroon

Banned
What would be interesting to know - would the dormant terror cells in Spain be activated to take advantage? With Spain's military and intel shifted south would the Madrid train bombing or similar be likely to occur at an earlier date?
This might be opening a can of worms the Islamists really don't want to be opened (not that fanatics shooting themselves in the foot is anywhere near unrealistic!). Right-wingers all over Europe will be claiming, that "All Muslims are only loyal to their religion and will stab us in the back in a war against a Muslim nation, etc etc."
The Spanish Islam apologetics and multiculturalists will be needing years to recover from the political fallout of a series of (successful or not) terror strikes in the middle of a war.
 
Implication on Europe:

I think there will be quite a lot of support for Spain and unfortunately also race riots.

Furtermore, have you considered a cyber attack from Spanish hackers and counter cyber attack from Morocans and their sympathysers.
 
And here's an update for ya:

A War on the Straits: Day 2 July 18th 2002

After the fall of Melilla and the Moroccan failure to take the Chafarinas, military activity for the next 36 hours will be reduced to the heavy fighting around Ceuta and occasional air raids. Most of the action will now happen in the diplomatic, public security and covert action fronts.

2.30PM: What seems to be a normal freighter leaves the port of Alicante with destination Algiers. It just seems to be a normal freighter since a) the ship is manned by Spanish navy men, b) she is escorted by a submerged submarine and c) her load is *not* furniture and cars.

3PM: The Spanish delegation in the UN states that no mediation proposal will be accepted until Spanish troops have again entered Melilla and the Moroccan army agrees to a withdrawal south of the Larache-Ksar el Kbir line. Negotiations for a ceasefire are indefinitely stalled.

In the Western Sahara, large columns of Moroccan soldiers, tanks, artillery and helicopters, move north towards the combat zones, halving Moroccan military presence in the Western Sahara.

At his humble official residence in Tindouf, Sahrawi president-in-exile Mohammed Abdelaziz receives some unexpected visitors.

4PM: In their first active action in the entire war, Spanish planes based off Gran Canaria bomb the Moroccan air base at El Aaiun, capital of the western Sahara.

In Ceuta, the defenders are starting to run out of ammo, although the Spanish navy is making desperate efforts to supply the city with ammunition and fresh troops while evacuating as many civilians as possible. The reopening of the straits to navigation only makes matters worse, as the danger of ships colliding is very high.

4.30PM: more Spanish cultural centers, consulates and embassies attacked all over the muslim world.

In America, the news on the War of the Straits have displaced Afghanistan and the WorldCom scandal from the front pages. At both sides of the political spectrum, analists and pundits argue on whether supporting Spain or not. Radicals urge for bombing of Morocco while moderates note that this war has nothing to do with the Great War on Terror, and that Spain attacked first. Similar heated debates are held also in Europe and the rest of the Western World.

5PM: The sahrawi government meets after President Abdelaziz’s visitors have left.
In Ceuta, the remaining civilians are ordered to leave the outer city districts and take shelter at downtown, behind the two bridges that link the city center island with the mainland. All of them notice the engineer units at both bridges, ready to blow them up if necessary.

After swift negotiations, planes loaded with missiles, high explosive ammunition and so on land in Madrid and Sevilla as part of the promised EU support. The Spanish army won’t have to worry about ammunition for another week.


5.30PM: the Moroccan army has managed to get a foothold at the two dams that supply water to Ceuta, getting an advantage position on the hills that surround the city and menacing the center of the Spanish line.

Engineers arrive to the Fuerteventura airport to enlarge the landing strips. Airports at Lanzarote and Fuerteventura are militarized and closed to civilian traffic and visitors: those wishing to leave the islands will have to board a ferry and take a plane at either Las Palmas or Tenerife.

Tourists and travellers driving by the A-4 highway between Madrid and Sevilla witness a large column of Leopard tanks and military trucks heading south. In a few hours grainy video footage from this are being broadcast all over the world: the Spanish army may be readying for a full-fledged invasion.

In the Ministry of Defense at Madrid, official spokesmen report about the last advancements in the war. Ceuta is holding out despite the increasing pressure of the attackers, the airforce has attacked targets at El Aaiun, Tangiers and what starts being known as the Death Road of Morocco: the N-13 road linking Tetouan and Ceuta.

In a bunker some meters below that, intelligence analysts have finally discovered the remaining Moroccan airfields near the Algerian border…

6PM: Madrid Police, supported by the Guardia Civil and even GEO [Spanish SWAT] have finished to repress what will be known as the July 18th Riot. There are 10 dead, hundreds of hurt and detained. Property damage is counted on millions.

7PM: Pope John Paul II asks for a ceasefire between both nations. His petition has the same success than the UN one.

At the Cartagena and Rota naval bases, the 4 Galicia and Pizarro class amphibious ships are being prepared for an invasion.

Red Cross members arrive to the improvised prisoner camps in Northern Morocco. They report that the prisoners are being well treated despite the rudimentary nature of the camps.

In Occupied Melilla, the city mayor meets with the Moroccan commander, who assures him that the situation will be normalized in a few days. For now, the city streets are empty, except for Moroccan checkpoints and patrols.

10 PM: the sahrawi government finishes a long, disputed meeting. They finally have a decision…

1030 PM: The load of the Spanish freighter is finally unloaded at Algiers port. It will head south

After the frenetical pace of events since the dawn of July 17th, the situation has gone calmer during most of the 18th. This calm will still last for a couple of days until Operations Blue and Pink break out…
 
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