A Song was Heard in China - A Different Tiananmen

[Tony]

BTW, I do wonder how secure AH.com's servers are, we sure don't want any meddling apologist Fenqings and "50 cent Gang" to stumble upon this place by accident and start spamming this place, or worse, DDoS it for it being a "threat to National Security" and all that rhetorical Party BS.

Recently, dissident artist Ai Weiwei, the designer of the Bird Nest Stadium of Beijing Olympics 2008, has been illegally detained by the authorities. (I say illegal because according to Chinese laws, no one can be detained for more than 48 hours without formal prosecution or action.)

When I read a CNN article online about the case, I found the page flooded with Fenqings ridiculously apologizing for the Chinese government, and distorting the words of Ai Weiwei. That was really disgusting.

Since alternate history is not really a popular topic anywhere in mainland China, unlike time travel (which was already banned), I see no signs of the arrival of those bigoted Fenqings here in AH.com in the near future

I remember Tiananmen, that was the first time in my life I paid attention to Chinese politics. 自由 was the first Chinese word I ever learned, and I've had a soft spot for Zhao Ziyang since then. I even tried to fit him into my own TL, though I had to give up on that for obvious reasons of plausibility.

So, I'm curious about this TL and where it will go. Keep up the good work.

Thanks for your support, I love your TLs too, and I would definitely love to live in your TL

Concerning Zhao, he is still quite popular here in Hong Kong according to opinion polls. According to a telephone poll conducted between March 23 and March 25 last year by the Public Opinion Programme of the University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP), 55.2% found him accruing more merit than demerit in the development of China, only 3.6% said the opposite.

Nevertheless, I have to admit that he has almost been forgotten in mainland China. As premier from 1980 until 1987, he was responsible for carrying out the economic policies during the Deng reforms. If we say Deng is the architect of the reforms, then Zhao must be the engineer. Yes, the flaws of his policies may have been one of the reasons behind the Tiananmen protests in 1989, but having Zhao disappeared in the history of China is really humiliating not only to the contributions of Zhao, but anyone with common sense.

To me, I view Zhao Ziyang as a hero, not because of his contributions to the growth of post-Mao China, but his conscience, arguably lacked by any of his successors in the ruling elite. Had he backed down, had he not defended himself for his actions during Tiananmen, he would have remained a member of the Politburo after Tiananmen, just like after the fall of Hu Yaobang.

He didn't, he devoted the remaining of his life to fight for justice and the rehabiliation of Tiananmen. In 1997, Zhao wrote a letter to every Politburo member asking for a thorough reevaluation of Tiananmen. His memoirs included that letter. Had he changed his mind, he would have regained freedom and would have lived like Hu Yaobang. Sacrificing his personal freedom for the future of China, like it or not, he's a real hero.

I was born in Hong Kong slightly after Tiananmen, but luckily here is Hong Kong, not Macao or mainland China. When I was very small, my parents played the video tapes of Tiananmen. When Zhao died in 2005, I attended a candlelight vigil in Victoria Park, Hong Kong. I believe the best way to remember Zhao, is to pass through the flames of freedom and democracy from generation to generation. Since then, I've attended the annual candlelight vigil in Victoria Park commemorating those killed in the Tiananmen on June 4 every year.

Finally in the past 2 years, minor suppression in Hong Kong has begun, and the replica of the Goddess of Democracy sculpture was taken away by the police last year. As a result, the turnout in the June 4 vigil last year was unprecedented, the police estimate of turnout was above 100,000, for the first time for the same activity since 1990.

Tiananmen student leaders like Wang Dan and Wuer Kaixi were denied entry to Hong Kong earlier this year, to attend the funeral of Szeto Wah, a prominent educator and leading campaigner for the Tiananmen victims. The reasons given by the Government was absolutely BS.

Facing an increasingly tightened political atmosphere, many of my friends are worried about a possible comeback of the National Security Law (Article 23) defeated in 2003 when 500,000 took to the streets. Had Tiananmen gone differently, I'm quite sure that I would have an even better life without fear. This is my motivation, and for one day I'm alive, I'll go to Victorial Park every year on June 4.

Good idea for a TL. Hopefully China can avoid all the problems that Gorbachev had with glasnost and perestroika. They'll probably have to acknowledge the students' wishes but take nevertheless things rather slowly. In any case, not having a massacre would be a good start.

Yes, after Tiananmen, things would not move too fast, not as fast as Eastern Europe or Mongolia in OTL. Sadly, and to be realistic, China would definitely come across some similar problems encountered by the Soviet Union in OTL 1991 very soon in this TL.

So far, so good. Wonder how all of this is gonna effect the rest of the world.

I can only say that there will be good effect, but also bad effect due to butterflies The world would be very different as of 2011 in TTL.

I look very much forward for the long-term development in this timeline. Imagining a democratic China (a true People's Republic of China) should be something we -and our politicians- should do more training in, so that once the time comes, we wouldn't react as helplessly as in Arabia recently.

If you talk about long-term development, an alternate Tiananmen would produce problems as well. The fate of the most affected nation (not China, guess) would begin to create trouble very soon.

Wow, this is impressive. Your grasp of all the background of the political ins-and-outs is remarkably thorough, but not to the point where it bogs the story down. And I think all your detail gives this timeline the potential to be very realistic. I'll definitely be following this!

Thanks. Just hope that I won't disappoint you later. Nevertheless, though I have finished outlining what would happen politically globally from 1989-2005, and I have an idea about the development of Internet in TTL (with a POD of 1989, it could really have been different); since the books I have on my hand are all about political history, I may have trouble talking about the economy.

Also, though I despised Li Peng, I have to admit that some of his OTL 1990s infrastructure projects were great. I really need some help concerning how to deal with them. Also, I am too unfamiliar with India, and I need some help there too.

I will go north to Shenzhen later next week to visit a friend. Maybe I can buy a book there about the economic development of China after 1989.

One sidenote: was the account of Hu Yaobang's heart attack based on an OTL observer's account?

Yes, and Wang Mingqing was really the Central Health Secretary of Zhongnanhai in 1989. Wang did not write such a book in OTL, but I was really quoting him. I just translated parts of what he did say in OTL from Chinese into English, because quoting him would be more interesting than making up a news story about Hu's death

Next Update: Part 2-2 Conflicts and Dialogue (2) on or before Sunday
(Preface, Preview, Part 1 and Part 2-1 on Page 1)

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

Just read the TL so far -- and I love it. Definitely going to be following this...

 

[mcdo]

Just wanted to say that I love this TL. Not only is the topic interesting, but your writing style is great--I feel like I am reading a real news account. As others have said, it is nice to have a TL that is *better* than OTL, instead of worse.

Recently, dissident artist Ai Weiwei, the designer of the Bird Nest Stadium of Beijing Olympics 2008, has been illegally detained by the authorities. (I say illegal because according to Chinese laws, no one can be detained for more than 48 hours without formal prosecution or action.)

When I read a CNN article online about the case, I found the page flooded with Fenqings ridiculously apologizing for the Chinese government, and distorting the words of Ai Weiwei. That was really disgusting.

This reminds me of a time when, during the disturbances in Tibet, the BBC "Have You Say" feature asked if "Western" coverage of the event was fair. It was very obvious that all of the people saying it was biased against China were using the very same talking points. "Fifty Cent Party" indeed.

Since alternate history is not really a popular topic anywhere in mainland China, unlike time travel (which was already banned), I see no signs of the arrival of those bigoted Fenqings here in AH.com in the near future

You know, I'm sure the "shit youth" would kill me if I ever said it in person, but they really remind me of nothing more than 1930's Japanese youths. I mean, they irrationally belief that the government can do no wrong, that the military is the best way to settle land disputes, and that China has to be "strong" to preserve its "honor"... Really, just change the country and the time period, and no one would even notice.

 

[NFR]

Recently, dissident artist Ai Weiwei, the designer of the Bird Nest Stadium of Beijing Olympics 2008, has been illegally detained by the authorities. (I say illegal because according to Chinese laws, no one can be detained for more than 48 hours without formal prosecution or action.)

That's interesting, I take it that you are unfamiliar with the administrative detention provisions in various part of the Chinese criminal code.

Since alternate history is not really a popular topic anywhere in mainland China, unlike time travel (which was already banned), I see no signs of the arrival of those bigoted Fenqings here in AH.com in the near future

Proper political discourse in China online is pretty much impossible because everything - and I mean everything get dragged along ideological line but fast. And before you know it 'hanjian' and 'wumaodang' begin flying around like there's no tomorrow. Personally I find this sort of name-calling counter-productive and frankly pointless, even without going into the morality side of the matter it is abundantly clear that people will cheerfully jump in and support a position brainlessly - a brief perusal of any Western or Russian forum will show that (interestingly this phenomenon is sort of repeated in Russia - you have the Soviet defenders and the liberasty - but that is mostly restricted to historical discussions for obvious reasons), and there is no need to insinuate any other motive. After a point it gets very easy to throw names around rather than judge an argument by its merits.

Anyway, paranoia about DDoS is frankly ridiculous.

Nevertheless, I have to admit that he has almost been forgotten in mainland China. As premier from 1980 until 1987, he was responsible for carrying out the economic policies during the Deng reforms. If we say Deng is the architect of the reforms, then Zhao must be the engineer. Yes, the flaws of his policies may have been one of the reasons behind the Tiananmen protests in 1989, but having Zhao disappeared in the history of China is really humiliating not only to the contributions of Zhao, but anyone with common sense.

Not according to the official obituary he hasn't. And certainly not according the storm of commentary after his death (I take it that you've read his fake memorial service speech which made the rounds in major Chinese sites in 2005). Anyway, it's not like Zhao is an everyday topic in Hong Kong, either, is it?

I was born in Hong Kong slightly after Tiananmen, but luckily here is Hong Kong, not Macao or mainland China. When I was very small, my parents played the video tapes of Tiananmen. When Zhao died in 2005, I attended a candlelight vigil in Victoria Park, Hong Kong. I believe the best way to remember Zhao, is to pass through the flames of freedom and democracy from generation to generation. Since then, I've attended the annual candlelight vigil in Victoria Park commemorating those killed in the Tiananmen on June 4 every year.

Oh, nice. I was there the last few years, too. I've only missed it once since I came to HK. Usually take a seat along the jogging path, the middle is way too crowded and escape is difficult (I usually don't sit through the whole event).

Anyway, fingers crossed that you don't need to pass the flame from generation to generation, that's a heck of a long time.

Finally in the past 2 years, minor suppression in Hong Kong has begun, and the replica of the Goddess of Democracy sculpture was taken away by the police last year. As a result, the turnout in the June 4 vigil last year was unprecedented, the police estimate of turnout was above 100,000, for the first time for the same activity since 1990.

Tiananmen student leaders like Wang Dan and Wuer Kaixi were denied entry to Hong Kong earlier this year, to attend the funeral of Szeto Wah, a prominent educator and leading campaigner for the Tiananmen victims. The reasons given by the Government was absolutely BS.

It was taken away by the police because it's a large, freestanding structure that wasn't secured in any way. You can put up a sculpture of Mao and they'll still take the thing down.

And it's not the first time Wang Dan had been denied entry to HK. HKG retains the right to restrict passage through Hong Kong, as indeed does most political entity in the world. It was unfortunate but not illegal. Anyway it's not a BS explanation because as far as I remember they (wisely) refused to give any explanation at all. Obviously what Tseng should have done is to present Beijing with a fait accompli, once you asked them the official obviously wasn't going to risk his career and say 'yes, you can let him in'. But then Tseng lacked the political will to do so, as indeed he lacks the political will for pretty much anything. Legacy of his entire career, I think. He's not a bad bureaucrat and administrator, he's just hopeless as a leader.

Facing an increasingly tightened political atmosphere, many of my friends are worried about a possible comeback of the National Security Law (Article 23) defeated in 2003 when 500,000 took to the streets. Had Tiananmen gone differently, I'm quite sure that I would have an even better life without fear. This is my motivation, and for one day I'm alive, I'll go to Victorial Park every year on June 4.

Well, the political atmsophere in Hong Kong has been growing more radical for some time now, and direction action is becoming more and more mainstream. My friends in the police are not happy about it, it makes their jobs much more difficult, and it's seriously beginning to impact on morale. Anyway, I don't think you have all that much to fear in the near to medium term.

Yes, after Tiananmen, things would not move too fast, not as fast as Eastern Europe or Mongolia in OTL. Sadly, and to be realistic, China would definitely come across some similar problems encountered by the Soviet Union in OTL 1991 very soon in this TL.

Oh, pity. I was hoping to see China crash and burn - that was always a possibility if TAM went pearshaped.

I can only say that there will be good effect, but also bad effect due to butterflies The world would be very different as of 2011 in TTL.
If you talk about long-term development, an alternate Tiananmen would produce problems as well. The fate of the most affected nation (not China, guess) would begin to create trouble very soon.

You bastard! What are you going to do to the Soviet Union?! Real life wasn't bad enough for you?

Seriously, Norkland? Whatever happens to China plus Soviet Union falling apart on schedule (I can think of several ways where we won't - but the SU isn't the focus of this thread and without major changes we were scheduled for demolition - the coup was unlikely to have succeeded with or without Yeltsin).

Thanks. Just hope that I won't disappoint you later. Nevertheless, though I have finished outlining what would happen politically globally from 1989-2005, and I have an idea about the development of Internet in TTL (with a POD of 1989, it could really have been different); since the books I have on my hand are all about political history, I may have trouble talking about the economy.

I can give you some pointers - PM me if you are interested. Also kinda interested about the internet, too. The Chinese net as we know it today probably (I don't know yet, I don't know what you are going with this timeline) not exist, and a bunch of colourful animals like caonima and hexie, nor would the tendency to use euphemisms and homonyms (children's shoes) which is strongly influenced by censorship. What WOULD be fun is nationalism - I strongly suspect fenqings (I use it here as a shorthand for nationalists - Chinese nationalism, siege mentality, cultural differences are not going to vanish overnight, same with the economic and social conditions that caused the Western backlash) would still exist, and with an open battlefield.. things will get interesting online. Another thing it might do is to somewhat change Western perception of China... I mean, imagine this place where you have about 50 resident Chinese nationalists... Look no further than places like 'Pakistan Defence Forum', and the catch is most of the posters are Chinese who are overseas (or plain old overseas Chinese), so they correspond closer to a hypothetical TTL China where the CHinese weren't facing the same sort of censorship. And yes, it's pretty bad.

 

[Kinny Riddle]

Anyway, paranoia about DDoS is frankly ridiculous.

Hey, paranoid I may be, but not entirely ridiculous and invalid, so I beg to differ. I myself have seen innocuous non-political blogs (mainly Chinese language ones) getting shut down by such attacks for even the tiniest reference to the incident. You only need to look at Google complaining that some of their gmail accounts in China were attacked for no reason.


Interesting that the shitstorm caused by the provocative April 26th editorial was defused by a single speech by Zhao. Now if only he actually had the guts to do that in OTL, this would have become a DBWI thread.

 

[NFR]

Hey, paranoid I may be, but not entirely ridiculous and invalid, so I beg to differ. I myself have seen innocuous non-political blogs (mainly Chinese language ones) getting shut down by such attacks for even the tiniest reference to the incident. You only need to look at Google complaining that some of their gmail accounts in China were attacked for no reason.

And I see lots of Chinese language blogs INSIDE China (just go to Tianya, it's full of them) that is going along quite happily. Just name me ONE major Western forum that was flooded by a DDoS. Off the top of my head I can't think of any. There were a few major hacking attacks but those were in response to major fracas in relations like 2008 Tibet, 2009 Xinjiang and 2000 Hainan. Chinese censors frankly have far better things to do than anything like this - which is, well, a pissant little story (no offence Tony I like the story but AH.com isn't exactly Sina) with a few hundred potential audience ... in English (which is the key to how censors work in China).

Anyway, hacking gMail accounts for tracking dissident is not the same thing as patriotic hackers throwing a hissy fit.

 

[MNP]

A word about the eastern democracies. You could argue that those nations like Japan and South Korea are in various states of Westernization. In fact I've read accounts of people who have been traveling to Japan for the last 40 years or so and they say that the differences between the "West" and Japan are dwindling. I don't know if it'll ever be the same but the impression I get is that Japan is still moving in that direction. I haven't read as much about South Korea but I know a number of people who have gone over there to teach and their experiences seem broadly consistent. Though I have no idea if that's representative.

I don't know specifically about India and Taiwan, but could it be possible democracy and westernization often do travel along similar routes?

Note: I do not say anything about whether a nation is "civilized" or not. Also if the Alt-Chinese government is such that it respects Tibetan cultural traditions then a TL where Tibet remains under Chinese control is not necessarily a bad thing.

 

[Tony]

That's interesting, I take it that you are unfamiliar with the administrative detention provisions in various part of the Chinese criminal code.

Possible, because no one really knows thoroughly about the legal system of China

Not according to the official obituary he hasn't. And certainly not according the storm of commentary after his death (I take it that you've read his fake memorial service speech which made the rounds in major Chinese sites in 2005). Anyway, it's not like Zhao is an everyday topic in Hong Kong, either, is it?

Depends on how you see it. I have some friends in mainland China, especially in Hangzhou and Suzhou near or at my age (I'm only 21, 'll be 22 soon). (Not internet friends, I never really meet online friends in person and I'm rather afraid of that.)

Only a third of them had heard of Zhao Ziyang before, their parents did not talk about that, nor would their teacher. For those who know, I remember one telling me that his parents feel betrayed by Zhao after Tiananmen Really hard to understand, since Zhao was put under house arrest for the rest of his life.

Oh, nice. I was there the last few years, too. I've only missed it once since I came to HK. Usually take a seat along the jogging path, the middle is way too crowded and escape is difficult (I usually don't sit through the whole event).

I don't really think you would get a 100,000+ turnout for the 3rd consecutive year, unless the police does silly things or politically incorrect things (in the sense of the League of Social Democrats) again. BTW, I've heard that Raymond Wong Yuk-man and Albert Chan Wai-yip of the so-called "People's Power" may boycott the candlelight vigil Would be higher than 2008 due to Szeto Wah, but 100,000+ is unlikely, so IMO you won't feel so crowded like the past 2 years

This year, I am going to take out my DSLR, wear like and pretend myself to be a reporter, then go near the front stage to take photos, just like last year
Edit: Don't worry NFR, I don't do illegal things, and I won't really tell the organisers that I am a reporter But the way I dress would make organisers think that I'm a reporter. If they ask, I'll say I'm not a reporter and I'm quite sure that a district councillor that I'm quite familiar with would be around that day

It was taken away by the police because it's a large, freestanding structure that wasn't secured in any way. You can put up a sculpture of Mao and they'll still take the thing down.

Doubt it. You just can't see the replica as an exhibition that requires a license from the Leisure and Cultural Services Department. And they were doing the same thing every year, without intervention.

And it's not the first time Wang Dan had been denied entry to HK. HKG retains the right to restrict passage through Hong Kong, as indeed does most political entity in the world. It was unfortunate but not illegal. Anyway it's not a BS explanation because as far as I remember they (wisely) refused to give any explanation at all. Obviously what Tseng should have done is to present Beijing with a fait accompli, once you asked them the official obviously wasn't going to risk his career and say 'yes, you can let him in'. But then Tseng lacked the political will to do so, as indeed he lacks the political will for pretty much anything. Legacy of his entire career, I think. He's not a bad bureaucrat and administrator, he's just hopeless as a leader.

I'm referring to the quotation of Donald Tsang by Liu Meng-xiong. I trust Liu more than the Hong Kong government Anyway, I have a strong feeling that Tsang is no one more than the servant of Beijing. He just lacks the vision that a mayor, I mean the Chief Executive should have possessed. I used to hate Tung Chee-hwa, but I think he has more passion.

Well, the political atmsophere in Hong Kong has been growing more radical for some time now, and direction action is becoming more and more mainstream. My friends in the police are not happy about it, it makes their jobs much more difficult, and it's seriously beginning to impact on morale. Anyway, I don't think you have all that much to fear in the near to medium term.

Personally, I hate the League of Social Democrats. Their platforms are unrealistic, and either violence or social democracy just doesn't work here in such a capitalist paradise. Raymond Wong and Albert Chan of the People's Power are even worse, totally opportunists, the worst politicians I've ever seen on this planet, even worse than those Communist pupets. I am rather sympathetic to Andrew To during the recent power struggle inside the LSD.

Challenging Democrats in the district elections would only give such seats to DAB members, and that's why I voluntarily become a campaign staff for a Democratic candidate. Hopefully Raymond Wong and Albert Chan would be investigated for their financial misconduct during the so-called referendum last year. Long live the Democratic Party of Hong Kong

Nevertheless, political radicalisation or polarization is not only the responsibility of the so-called post-80s (I was born in 1989) or the League of Social Democrats. The government has to bear some responsibilities too. One day the political system remains so strange like the one we have, thing would only worsen.

BTW, I admit that I am a firm supporter of the Democratic Party of Hong Kong. Economically, I'm centre-right. I oppose the latest budget, which has no vision at all; but I oppose the so-called referendum, and endorse the political reform platform last year. I support the compromise with Beijing, because we get to do something to stop the political polarization. At the same time, my major conern in China would be about human rights, just like any HK Democrat you know. So politically here, I'm just a moderate, the story would never be a LSDwank

Oh, pity. I was hoping to see China crash and burn - that was always a possibility if TAM went pearshaped.

China is different from USSR. Do you truly believe that Tibet or Xinjiang have the power or strength to break away? It's absolutely ASB!

You need a POD at least earlier than 1978, say Kennedy was not assasinated, and he assisted India in the Sino-Indian border dispute by using nuclear weapons, then Tibet would of course gain inpendence. I can't see it possible after 1978.

You bastard! What are you going to do to the Soviet Union?! Real life wasn't bad enough for you?

I won't say more, because the centre of the story may shift there in TTL 1991, but things would not turn out that bad in Russia as of TTL 2011.

Seriously, Norkland? Whatever happens to China plus Soviet Union falling apart on schedule (I can think of several ways where we won't - but the SU isn't the focus of this thread and without major changes we were scheduled for demolition - the coup was unlikely to have succeeded with or without Yeltsin).

BTW, I'm not saying that the Soviet Union would be affected most by butterflies created by this story. Now you should already know which country I'm talking about.

I can give you some pointers - PM me if you are interested.

After this TL reaches 1992, I'll contact you immediately if you don't mind

Also kinda interested about the internet, too. The Chinese net as we know it today probably (I don't know yet, I don't know what you are going with this timeline) not exist, and a bunch of colourful animals like caonima and hexie, nor would the tendency to use euphemisms and homonyms (children's shoes) which is strongly influenced by censorship. What WOULD be fun is nationalism - I strongly suspect fenqings (I use it here as a shorthand for nationalists - Chinese nationalism, siege mentality, cultural differences are not going to vanish overnight, same with the economic and social conditions that caused the Western backlash) would still exist, and with an open battlefield.. things will get interesting online. Another thing it might do is to somewhat change Western perception of China... I mean, imagine this place where you have about 50 resident Chinese nationalists... Look no further than places like 'Pakistan Defence Forum', and the catch is most of the posters are Chinese who are overseas (or plain old overseas Chinese), so they correspond closer to a hypothetical TTL China where the CHinese weren't facing the same sort of censorship. And yes, it's pretty bad.

I've thought of this as well. Fenqings would exist in this story as well. In a democratic China, expect the existance of a far-right nationalist party, that would become more and more popular from time to time.

To balance off the rather utopian development of China, I would make Japan stronger than today, so as to make Sino-Japanese interaction interesting. As a result, Japan in TTL would be far better off than today too. I can't tell you how it would go, let's wait and see.

For the Internet part, you cannot guess my direction, but what you say is not wrong either Yes, AH.com will be flooded with Fenqings (but certainly not Five Cent gang or Communist apologists) in TTL, before Ian banned them all due to racism in 2009 (I won't butterfly away AH.com, but maybe another popular forum with AH stories would not even exist)

 

[NFR]

Possible, because no one really knows thoroughly about the legal system of China

As far as I understand, it's not illegal. You've heard of 行政拘留 - so yes, they can certainly keep people beyond 48 hours, that's only HK law as far as I understand anyway. Any form of administrative punishment is essentially summary punishment without trial so obviously one is not in favour of it, but strictly speaking it's not illegal.

The Chinese authorities is showing increasing sophistication here, you'll find, there's a level of plausible deniability about 'economic crimes', given how much dealing Ai had in paintings and with overseas customers it is certainly possible that he forgot to pay an export tax somewhere, it certainly makes the situation less morally clear than Zhao Lianhai's case. Speaking of whom have you seen his latest? Fascinating development there.

In general the CCP's tools of social control is getting more refined. I am still not decided if this is a good thing yet. In a sense I am leaning towards a 'yes', as it shows a degree of responsiveness. Not ideal but it is reform towards the right direction of a sort.

Depends on how you see it. I have some friends in mainland China, especially in Hangzhou and Suzhou near or at my age (I'm only 21, 'll be 22 soon). (Not internet friends, I never really meet online friends in person and I'm rather afraid of that.)

Only a third of them had heard of Zhao Ziyang before, their parents did not talk about that, nor would their teacher. For those who know, I remember one telling me that his parents feel betrayed by Zhao after Tiananmen Really hard to understand, since Zhao was put under house arrest for the rest of his life.

That's a rather small sample size if you don't mind me saying. Like I said, you can find all sorts of articles about him online and he is certainly not forgotten. Obviously they are not going to go about trumpeting his name, but he hadn't been oublietted like the Nationalists' achievements were in the 50s to 80s.

I won't worry too much about how he is viewed by a few people, China is vast and there are all sorts of points of views in this place.

I don't really think you would get a 100,000+ turnout for the 3rd consecutive year, unless the police does silly things or politically incorrect things (in the sense of the League of Social Democrats) again. BTW, I've heard that Raymond Wong Yuk-man and Albert Chan Wai-yip of the so-called "People's Power" may boycott the candlelight vigil Would be higher than 2008 due to Szeto Wah, but 100,000+ is unlikely, so IMO you won't feel so crowded like the past 2 years

This year, I am going to take out my DSLR, wear like and pretend myself to be a reporter, then go near the front stage to take photos, just like last year

I'll pretend I didn't hear that, or it would be my duty to inform the police on this which is criminal fraud.

Doubt it. You just can't see the replica as an exhibition that requires a license from the Leisure and Cultural Services Department. And they were doing the same thing every year, without intervention.

Let's be fair here, just because something isn't always dealt with doesn't mean it was always legal. You can make a legal argument that persistent failure to deal with it is implicit acceptance, but that would be an appellate court matter. Put another way, you see illegal structures and hawkers in Hong Kong all over the place but just because the Police isn't coming over with sledge hammers every other week and arresting hawkers doesn't mean it's legal. THe police can take an attitude of benevolent ignorance, but once the matter had been brought to their attention officially *cough cough * there isn't much they can do.

Come to think of it I don't think it was the police who took it away anyway.

I'm referring to the quotation of Donald Tsang by Liu Meng-xiong. I trust Liu more than the Hong Kong government Anyway, I have a strong feeling that Tsang is no one more than the servant of Beijing. He just lacks the vision that a mayor, I mean the Chief Executive should have possessed. I used to hate Tung Chee-hwa, but I think he has more passion.

Do you mean the one where he said he (Wang) could mourn Sze-to in Taiwan?

And see what I said, like I said Tsang is far too timid and a bureaucrat. He has no leadership and no courage.

And yeah, God help us, Tsang had managed to make me miss Tung, a thing I didn't think possible.

Personally, I hate the League of Social Democrats. Their platforms are unrealistic, and either violence or social democracy just doesn't work here in such a capitalist paradise. Raymond Wong and Albert Chan of the People's Power are even worse, totally opportunists, the worst politicians I've ever seen on this planet, even worse than those Communist pupets. I am rather sympathetic to Andrew To during the recent power struggle inside the LSD.

Challenging Democrats in the district elections would only give such seats to DAB members, and that's why I voluntarily become a campaign staff for a Democratic candidate. Hopefully Raymond Wong and Albert Chan would be investigated for their financial misconduct during the so-called referendum last year. Long live the Democratic Party of Hong Kong

Actually, I find it interesting - remember the LSD 'coup' against the democrats for agreeing to the legislative branch vote reform proposal? There are some interesting parallels to what Mao did - to wrest leadership of the 'revolutionary movement' from Wang Ming & Co. The whole 'we're more of the people than YOU and you are all cowards' thing has been doing more than Beijing can in splitting the opposition so much that sometimes I think they ARE communists puppets. It is of course also forcing the mainstream to become more radical and that really isn't good for anybody.

Nevertheless, political radicalisation or polarization is not only the responsibility of the so-called post-80s (I was born in 1989) or the League of Social Democrats. The government has to bear some responsibilities too. One day the political system remains so strange like the one we have, thing would only worsen.

Obviously nobody is blaming them alone, the government had been insipid and lacking in vision, combining the worse features of a eternally campaigning democracy AND a colonial authoritarian government - it doesn't dare to DO anything and backpaddles at the slightest whiff of dissent, but it doesn't actually answer to the people, either. I said as much about Tsang, and Tung, while energetic, is a moron, not to mince words, with an attention span measured in microseconds.

BTW, I admit that I am a firm supporter of the Democratic Party of Hong Kong. Economically, I'm centre-right. I oppose the latest budget, which has no vision at all; but I oppose the so-called referendum, and endorse the political reform platform last year. I support the compromise with Beijing, because we get to do something to stop the political polarization. At the same time, my major conern in China would be about human rights, just like any HK Democrat you know. So politically here, I'm just a moderate, the story would never be a LSDwank

Hurrah for that.

China is different from USSR. Do you truly believe that Tibet or Xinjiang have the power or strength to break away? It's absolutely ASB!

I didn't say a single word about Tibet. My possibilities refer to outright civil conflict. If you look at where the political lines are drawn in '89, you'll find the PLA itself factionalised with Yang not realising his control had already slipped and Deng the only figure who can rally everybody. If things 'went pear-shaped' things could have gotten really nasty. Honestly, Tibet and Xinjiang are sideshows to China and would have been dealt with with pathetic ease by just the local garrisons (Xinjiang had another MILLION or so militia in the XPCC!). But if you have the Standing Committee itself fracturing ..

Well, do people remember '69?

You need a POD at least earlier than 1978, say Kennedy was not assasinated, and he assisted India in the Sino-Indian border dispute by using nuclear weapons, then Tibet would of course gain inpendence. I can't see it possible after 1978.

I don't think Tibet was going to go independent at all at any point post '59. The Indians showed their utter inability to even annoy the Chinese in '62 and attacking the Himalayas is hilariously implausible from the sub-continent - and if Tibet was reached from any OTHER direction China had a lot more to worry about than Tibet. Guerrilla movements were never going to go anywhere - the CIA tried and it was a joke.

I won't say more, because the centre of the story may shift there in TTL 1991, but things would not turn out that bad in Russia as of TTL 2011.


BTW, I'm not saying that the Soviet Union would be affected most by butterflies created by this story. Now you should already know which country I'm talking about.

My lips are sealed.

After this TL reaches 1992, I'll contact you immediately if you don't mind

I will try to respond promptly but no promises, I do have a job.

I've thought of this as well. Fenqings would exist in this story as well. In a democratic China, expect the existance of a far-right nationalist party, that would become more and more popular from time to time.

Oh yes. The West always wax poetic about a democratic China. Wait until they get one is what I says.

To balance off the rather utopian development of China, I would make Japan stronger than today, so as to make Sino-Japanese interaction interesting. As a result, Japan in TTL would be far better off than today too. I can't tell you how it would go, let's wait and see.

There is really no need to just 'balance' things out in timelines. And in any case China wasn't going to get that much stronger per se - it'd be a nicer place to live in, but that does not necessarily imply richer, and certainly not militarily stronger or diplomatically more influential. And I'll caution against making Japan stronger as with a '89 PoD Japan's malaise was complete and the deep-seated problems are not easy to get rid of, and Japan's political culture make reform difficult - it took Koizumi to even make a start (and he by and large did not succeed), and there are good reasons for that.

For the Internet part, you cannot guess my direction, but what you say is not wrong either Yes, AH.com will be flooded with Fenqings (but certainly not Five Cent gang or Communist apologists) in TTL, before Ian banned them all due to racism in 2009 (I won't butterfly away AH.com, but maybe another popular forum with AH stories would not even exist)

Honestly I don't like to refer to people as wumaodang for reasons above described, it's facile name-calling and prevents proper political discourse. I mean, you could call me a CCP apologist sometimes. Recognising that an entity is not in fact child-devouring monsters and may in fact have done some good, and that at a given time they may have been the best choice is not the same as being apologetic.

Anyway, good luck with this and have a nice weekend, I know I am off.

 

[My Username is Inigo Montoya]

One word: "Subscribed"

 

[Kinny Riddle]

And I see lots of Chinese language blogs INSIDE China (just go to Tianya, it's full of them) that is going along quite happily. Just name me ONE major Western forum that was flooded by a DDoS. Off the top of my head I can't think of any. There were a few major hacking attacks but those were in response to major fracas in relations like 2008 Tibet, 2009 Xinjiang and 2000 Hainan. Chinese censors frankly have far better things to do than anything like this - which is, well, a pissant little story (no offence Tony I like the story but AH.com isn't exactly Sina) with a few hundred potential audience ... in English (which is the key to how censors work in China).

Anyway, hacking gMail accounts for tracking dissident is not the same thing as patriotic hackers throwing a hissy fit.

Okay, I'll admit that AH.com, as an English-language, mainly "Western"-based forum (excuse the use of politically incorrect terminology ), does not have an audience big enough to attract the attention of Party-licensed hackers.

And how can you be sure that those blogs in Tianya are still there today? They may be circumventing the censors using witty puns or hidden in-jokes, like the infamous Grass-Mud-Horse. I'm talking about those blogs outside the GFW that need not accommodate such censors getting attacked.

Anyway, fine, I'm the uber-paranoid sort that worries about when Yellowstone volcano MIGHT erupt.

 

[tukk323]

Woah cool TL, good details, subscribed.
Man, the DPRK is really gonna be even more isolated wihtout a communist big-brother nieghbour

 

[Typo]

I have no problem with the Chinese people themselves (except that too many of them seem overly nationalist, but I have the same problem with my fellow USians), but the Chinese government is in no way civilized. Many of the protesters in the Tienanmen Square Massacre were students from the local Beijing universities. That means that not only were they China's "best and brightest", but in many cases they were the sons and daughters of the Chinese ruling classes--the very people who ordered the military to massacre the protesters. Thousands of people were killed, for no "crime" other than calling for a government in China that was in some way responsible to the people it ruled. Until the government of China is at least willing to admit the massacre was wrong, and take steps to prevent it from repeating in the future, I am not willing to call that government "civilized".

Also, I have to take issue with the fact that you seem to be equating democracy as Western cultural norms. After all, the most populous democracy on Earth is India, not some Western nation. Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, India--each of these nations is a democracy, and not one of them is "Western". I am sick and tired of people apologizing for dictatorships in Russia, the Middle East, China, and elsewhere by saying "Well, that's just their *culture*".

Is the American government civilized to you?

Because they killed far more people than ever killed in Beijing 1989 in the last decade, they just did it in different countries, and no, they did not admit it was wrong either. I say we deride them as uncivilized until they admit that invading other people's countries after sanctioning them into third world status and killing hundreds of thousands is wrong.

I mean I'm not saying what the Chinese government did was right, I'm just wondering how far your double standard goes.

 

[Burton K Wheeler]

Is the American government civilized to you?

Because they killed far more people than ever killed in Beijing 1989 in the last decade, they just did it in different countries, and no, they did not admit it was wrong either. I say we deride them as uncivilized until they admit that invading other people's countries after sanctioning them into third world status and killing hundreds of thousands is wrong.

I mean I'm not saying what the Chinese government did was right, I'm just wondering how far your double standard goes.

Don't troll.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

So when can we expect the new update?

 

[Typo]

Don't troll.

So I guess calling the Chinese government "uncivilized" isn't trolling?

I mean those two are on the same level pretty much.

 

[Gosing]

So I guess calling the Chinese government "uncivilized" isn't trolling?

I mean those two are on the same level pretty much.

While it's up to the mods to answer you, I would like to point out that you stepped into a thread, revived a debate that was long since abandoned and only lasted two or three posts anyway, and then made a strongly-worded, combatative, and potentially insulting remark without actually giving any evidence to back your statement up.

 

[Typo]

While it's up to the mods to answer you, I would like to point out that you stepped into a thread, revived a debate that was long since abandoned and only lasted two or three posts anyway, and then made a strongly-worded, combatative, and potentially insulting remark without actually giving any evidence to back your statement up.

In other words, pretty much the exact same type of statement I'm replying to in the first place. Also, I'm not quite sure what you mean by lack of evidence.

 

[Gosing]

In other words, pretty much the exact same type of statement I'm replying to in the first place. Also, I'm not quite sure what you mean by lack of evidence.

Mcdo's post referred to a specific, well-known and documented event (Tianamen Square and the government's refusal to recognize it) and took time to explain why he considers said act to disqualify the Chinese governement to be "civilized". You, on the other hand, just waltz in and say that the American government has killed thousands (even hundreds of thousands, if I'm reading your post correctly) of people in the last two decades, which is to my knowledge both incorrect and offensive.

Care to point out where all those thousands of people were killed?

 

[Typo]

Mcdo's post referred to a specific, well-known and documented event (Tianamen Square and the government's refusal to recognize it) and took time to explain why he considers said act to disqualify the Chinese governement to be "civilized". You, on the other hand, just waltz in and say that the American government has killed thousands (even hundreds of thousands, if I'm reading your post correctly) of people in the last two decades, which is to my knowledge both incorrect and offensive.

Care to point out where all those thousands of people were killed?

You mean like Iraq? that is also "well-known and documented event".

But hey, I'm pretty sure I'm walking a thin line to kicking atm, so just pm me.