A question about Russia in WWI

Bartholome de Fonte

Hello,

I am curious if in February 1917 the Russians sued for peace with the Central Powers as to what could the potential terms look like. (The terms of Brest-Litovsk are certainly not going to happen.) All I can consider would be that Poland would be removed from Russian control. I honestly cannot find any maps detailing the front line at the time, if I could be shown where I could find some that would quiet handy. If anyone has some input on this it would be very helpful! :)

Cheers
 

wormyguy

Banned
Poland and Lithuania (as shown here: https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/attachment.php?attachmentid=8876&stc=1&d=1134966449) ceded to Germany, 1878 border restored in the Caucasus, Russia pays a large indemnity, possibly demilitarization of the Black and/or Baltic Sea.

Edit: It's worth noting that Russia would be unlikely to agree to such terms, as it's not exactly clear that they're losing from a military standpoint.

Edit2: This map shows the situation on Jan 1, doesn't appear there was much movement for most of 1917.
 
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BlondieBC

Banned
When the subject of peace treaty came up, the Germans generally wanted to keep the land they had conquered. The Germans would also ask for reparations, other concessions, but there is a big difference between the initial negotiation position and final treaty. Russia could have likely had peace at any point in the war for return of AH, Ottoman, and German lands held plus Germany keeps most/all land conquered + food shipments.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/e9/Eastern_Front_As_of_1917.jpg

I think the frontier would be near the map, so Russia would lose Poland and Lithuania. I am not so sure on Romania. Germany would also be very interested in food and other raw materials. Germany would be hard pressed to turn down an offer that allowed them to focus on France quickly, and might give major concessions to Russia, such a major Russian influence in and independent Lithuania and perhaps an independent Poland. Strategically, both sides could benefit from a buffer state. Also, Russia would probably have to agree not to help Serbia in the future.
 

Bartholome de Fonte

That also sounds good, what would the effects be militarily of an earlier peace? It would be before the Americans joined the war, perhaps this time a shifting of troops west would be more effective for the Germans?
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Novak said:
That also sounds good, what would the effects be militarily of an earlier peace? It would be before the Americans joined the war, perhaps this time a shifting of troops west would be more effective for the Germans?
Click to expand...

Well, it might mean a major western offensive in the Summer of 1917, not the Spring of 1918. With fewer Americans in the area, maybe the Germans can win or win enough the French and British would accept a peace treaty. My guess is that the war would continue til one side or the other won. The major butterfly would be Russia offering peace before the Zimmerman telegraph and the resumption of unrestricted submarine warfare. If the peace is early enough, maybe the Germans don't use the subs against neutral shipping and maybe the USA stays out of the war. Any redeployment is time sensitive and would require an treaty date and terms of the treaty.

Food is also critical. If food from Russia reaches AH before March 1918, maybe they can stay in the war.
 

wormyguy

Banned
BlondieBC said:
My guess is that the war would continue til one side or the other won.
Click to expand...

No joke, really?
nooffenseintendedtoanyone.jpg
 

Bartholome de Fonte

BlondieBC said:
-snip-
Click to expand...

The problem is with this premise is that unrestricted submarine warfare and the Zimmerman telegram already happened by February of 1917. So the Germans are still going to be fighting the Americans, though if the Germans did try some major offensive sooner there would be less Americans around in Europe.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Novak said:
The problem is with this premise is that unrestricted submarine warfare and the Zimmerman telegram already happened by February of 1917. So the Germans are still going to be fighting the Americans, though if the Germans did try some major offensive sooner there would be less Americans around in Europe.
Click to expand...

True, but he said 1917, so if they are working on the peace treaty in January 1917, it might butterfly them. This POD is really time sensitive. A few weeks could be huge.
 

Wendell

Novak said:
Hello,

I am curious if in February 1917 the Russians sued for peace with the Central Powers as to what could the potential terms look like. (The terms of Brest-Litovsk are certainly not going to happen.) All I can consider would be that Poland would be removed from Russian control. I honestly cannot find any maps detailing the front line at the time, if I could be shown where I could find some that would quiet handy. If anyone has some input on this it would be very helpful! :)

Cheers
Click to expand...

Poland, Courland, Lithuania, Finland, and Bessarabia are lost.
 
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