A House Divided: A TL

#6: Nullification Blues
A House Divided #6: Nullification Blues

The Government of the absolute majority instead of the Government of the people is but the Government of the strongest interests; and when not efficiently checked, it is the most tyrannical and oppressive that can be devised.”

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From “Waxhaws to White House: The Life and Times of Andrew Jackson”
(c) 1962 by Dr Josiah Harris
Knoxville: University of Tennessee Press

…The greatest test to Jackson's administration came on the issue of tariffs, which would come to be a dominant theme in economic policy during his period in office. The 1820s were a decade of general economic stagnation for the US, and to protect domestic industry, John Quincy Adams had signed into law the Tariff of 1828, which set the highest import rates in US history on industrial goods as well as a number of raw materials. This helped the North recover somewhat – the nationwide GDP grew significantly between 1828 and 1832, mostly spurred by northern industrial growth – but was a complete economic disaster for the South, whose economy was dependent on access to foreign trade. Where the North was able to rise from the ashes, the South appeared to spiral further into economic malaise, and during Jackson's election campaign in 1828, a number of southern Jackson supporters pledged to repeal the tariff once Jackson had been elected. Jackson himself appears not to have noticed or cared about these pledges made on his behalf, because in his first year in office, no action whatsoever had been taken against the tariff…

…It was particularly in South Carolina that anti-tariff sentiment ran high. Incidentally, it was of course South Carolina that was home to the Vice President, John Caldwell Calhoun, who penned the “Exposition and Protest” in December of 1828. The Exposition argued that the tariff was unconstitutional, because its purpose was not to provide general revenue but overtly to favor one sector of the economy (industry) over another (agriculture). Moreover, the Exposition argued that it was perfectly within the bounds of legality for a state, having discussed the matter at a duly elected convention, had the right to nullify within its boundaries any federal law it felt violated the Constitution. This nullification doctrine had previously been set out by Thomas Jefferson and James Madison in their protest against the Alien and Sedition Acts, and was a cornerstone of the political philosophy devised by Jefferson and John Randolph, among others. Calhoun saw to it that the Exposition was published anonymously, fearing a break with Jackson might hurt his cause more than it would help, but word of the author's identity soon got out.

The publication of the Exposition reignited the debate over nullification in Washington and across the country. This debate essentially hinged on one's view of the origins of the Constitution and by extension, the federal government – nationalists like Daniel Webster and John Quincy Adams argued that the Constitution was the product of the American people as a whole, while men like Calhoun and Randolph argued that it was a compact between sovereign states, which could decide for themselves what was and wasn't constitutional. Its clearest iteration can be found in a Senate debate between Daniel Webster and Robert Hayne, held in January of 1830, which began when Hayne rose in opposition to a resolution proposed by Senator Samuel Foot of Connecticut, that would have severely restricted the states' power to sell frontier land. This, Hayne felt, constituted a transgression of states' rights, and he attempted to create a South-West alliance against the Eastern states by linking the issue to that of nullification. Webster rose in opposition to this, and the two men had a long series of exchanges that have been recognized as “the most celebrated debate in the Senate's history”. Webster notably created something of a slogan for the nationalists when, in his second reply to Hayne, he referred to the federal government as being “made by the people, made for the people, and answerable to the people”…

…President Jackson first began to hint at his views on nullification when, at the traditional celebration of Jefferson's birthday held by the Democratic Party every year in April, a “battle of toasts” erupted between the party's factions. Hayne proposed a toast to “the Union of the States, and the Sovereignty of the States”, to which Jackson replied by toasting “our Federal Union: it must be preserved”. Then-Senator Benton would write in his memoirs that Jackson's toast “electrified the country”, and from that moment, battle lines appeared to be getting drawn. Certainly Jackson did not try to back down from his position – when asked if he had a message for the people of South Carolina by a visitor from that state, he replied: “Please give my compliments to my friends in your State and say to them, that if a single drop of blood shall be shed there in opposition to the laws of the United States, I will hang the first man I can lay my hand on engaged in such treasonable conduct, upon the first tree I can reach”… [1]

…Perhaps understandably, tensions continued to rise in South Carolina, where the October legislative elections would prove something of a turning point. The increasingly organized “Nullifier party” made it known that they would use any mandate gained in the elections to call a state convention to debate nullification, and anti-nullification groups united in opposition to this. The Nullifiers won a fairly strong majority, and were able to elect the radical Nullifier James Hamilton, Jr. to the governor's office. However, the Nullifier majority fell short of the two thirds required to call a state convention, and so the issue lingered for two more years…

…The 1832 South Carolina elections were held just weeks before that year's presidential election, and saw the nullifiers and anti-nullifiers (or “Unionists”) campaign as organized parties for the first time. The Unionists campaigned to re-elect Jackson to the presidency in tandem with their state campaign, but the Nullifiers did not put much effort into national politics, only letting it be known that a Nullifier legislature would send an electoral slate supporting neither Jackson nor Clay. Ultimately the Nullifiers ended up winning a landslide, and took control of both houses of the legislature with supermajorities large enough to call a convention. Promptly, the legislature was called into session to authorize the convention, and the latter assembled in November of 1832 to hear the case for and against nullification and make a decision for the people of the state. With a large majority of delegates being committed Nullifiers, there was little doubt which way the vote would go. The resolution approved by the convention stated that the tariff of 1828 was in violation of the Constitution, that its enforcement within the state was prohibited from 1833 onwards, and that in case the federal government should attempt to impose its will by force, the governor was authorized to raise and arm a militia of 25,000 men. [2]

Before then, however, Congress had reassembled in Washington, and preventing nullification was the first point on its agenda. Henry Clay and John Calhoun, both now Senators (after Robert Hayne's election as Governor, Calhoun had resigned from the Vice Presidency to take his seat, leaving the latter office vacant), managed to find rare common ground in the desire to embarrass Jackson by resolving the crisis without his intervention, and together the two drafted a new tariff bill which lowered export duties on agricultural products from an average of 45% in the 1828 tariff to an average of 30%. This was rushed through Congress and passed by broad margins in both houses, including the South Carolina Nullifiers (who likely would've preferred to see the duties go down even further, but deferred to Calhoun) and a substantial number of Jacksonians as well as the Republicans who Clay managed to whip with great acumen. Within two weeks of the new year, the tariff was passed, and while Jackson could have vetoed it, he saw no need to look a gift horse in the mouth. The Tariff of 1833 went into effect on March 1, and South Carolina promptly demurred. The Nullification Crisis, at least for the time being, was over… [3]

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Excerpts from a discussion at
fc/gen/uchronia, labeled “WI: South Carolina secedes during Nullification Crisis?”

1990-04-02 18:19 EST, @MikeOfThePlatte wrote:

I recently read a biography on Andrew Jackson, and I came across an interesting potential divergence: As most of us no doubt know, South Carolina tried to nullify the Tariff of 1828, and it took Calhoun and Clay working together to pass a new compromise tariff before they backed down. But did you know that South Carolina actually had plans to secede and raise a militia if the government didn't let them go ahead with nullification?

1990-04-02 18:21 EST, @YosemiteSam wrote:

Oh, it went above and beyond that. Jackson was clearly raring to fight them all throughout, and in fact, at the time the Compromise Tariff was going through the House, he was planning to introduce a bill that would've let him send federal troops into South Carolina to enforce the tariff and strike down opposition to it. If the Compromise Tariff had even been delayed by, say, three months, then things could've turned very ugly indeed.

1990-04-02 18:29 EST, @MikeOfThePlatte wrote:

Fascinating. So if Jackson had stood his ground and Clay his, could we have seen a southern secession?

1990-04-02 18:33 EST, @AgentBlue wrote:

Not this goddamn southern secession trope again. The South was clearly favored by Washington throughout the First Republic – just look at the way it kowtowed to slaveholding interests over Mexico, or *New* Mexico, or the transcontinental railroad, or Kansas. They'd have very little to gain by seceding from a country that let them be on top when the North had twice their population.

1990-04-02 18:36 EST, @YosemiteSam wrote:

Well @MikeOfThePlatte, I don't know about the South as a whole, but South Carolina very definitely could've seceded. Feelings were running very high on both sides throughout the affair, and as you say, the nullification convention did enable the governor to raise a militia to defend the state from any and all comers (read: any federal troops Jackson might send their way). Any attempt by South Carolina to leave the Union on its own would've led to a very short war, and most of the other southern states, while they weren't happy about the tariff, didn't go so far as to try to nullify it, and probably wouldn't have been inclined to walk out of the Union on South Carolina's word. So their only hope in case of secession would've been if Washington would've let them go peacefully, which knowing Jackson… yeah, no.

1990-04-02 18:43 EST, @sonofliberty wrote:

Even if South Carolina couldn't have *successfully* seceded, there's still an interesting scenario to be had here. Say they do secede, Jackson does send in the troops, and the tariff of 1828 is forcibly imposed on the South. IOW, the issue died down pretty quickly after South Carolina managed to more or less force its will on Washington by way of threats, and the federal government more or less demurred from protectionism until […] But if the federal government had instead established a precedent of forcing its will on individual states, I imagine things could've turned out very different. Imagine if Jackson, spurred by his successful defense of the Union, would've used the occasion to push forward with the abolition of the Electoral College, as he wanted to do. I think the whole Southern dominance of Washington that @AgentBlue spoke of (not wrongly) could've been… not averted, but very much lessened in such a scenario. Hell, if the North gets its act together and produces a consolidated political platform, we could even see slavery abolished by, say, 1865 in such a scenario.

1990-04-02 18:50 EST, @YosemiteSam wrote:

What? I got what you were saying with that post, and even broadly agreed, until the last sentence. What “unified northern agenda” could've done that so quickly? The North was always disunited politically during the First Republic, otherwise every presidential election would've been lopsided. Plus it had more than a few active supporters of slavery, and probably a majority of people who didn't care either way and just wanted economic prosperity. If such a “Northern Party” were to arise, I refuse to believe it could *both* be openly abolitionist *and* maintain its broad support from across the free states.
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[1] Jackson said this IOTL as well. That man was not the sort to mince words, to say the least.
[2] My description of the Nullification Crisis up to this point is more or less entirely OTL.
[3] At this point things diverge somewhat – the Republicans, having been energized by Taney's anti-Bank shenanigans, are sufficiently willing to put egg on Jackson's face to agree to a compromise tariff before the Force Bill is floated.
 
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Hmm, later abolition of Slavery and a 1st/2nd republic? Yeah, things are going to be very rough in future aren't they.

It's going to be glorious and bloody is what it's going to be.

Or at least that's my impression.

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And yet it seems like Mexico will be invaded. Poor Mexicans :/

A US/Mexican clash is inevitable, IMO; this sounds like an interesting US history TTL...

What @Unknown said, I'm afraid - the only way you could avoid it is probably to have either a much stabler Mexico that's able to negotiate terms of sale for Texas and/or California, which requires a PoD well before ours (probably in the 1810s), or a US that's so weak that it never expands there, which given how the slave-state economy worked after the cotton gin's invention, is deeply unlikely.
 
What @Unknown said, I'm afraid - the only way you could avoid it is probably to have either a much stabler Mexico that's able to negotiate terms of sale for Texas and/or California, which requires a PoD well before ours (probably in the 1810s), or a US that's so weak that it never expands there, which given how the slave-state economy worked after the cotton gin's invention, is deeply unlikely.

Well, let's hope the Mexicans kick the asses of the yanquis, then. Wouldn't that be nice. #wishfulthinking #Ihaveadream
 
#7: Where Hearts Were Entertaining June
A House Divided #7: Where Hearts Were Entertaining June

This shoot from our European continent will ultimately increase, and a plant will spring up, infinitely more important than the branch from which it proceeded;

and though the season of its maturity is far distant, yet the rapidity of its advance or tardiness of its growth greatly depends upon the fostering care or indifferent negligence of its rulers.
Still, whatever the conduct of these may be, its extent, its fertility, and other numerous advantages must, in the course of time, give it that rank which it has a right to claim among the great nations of the world.”


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From “The Special Case of Brazil”
(c) 1967 by Dr. Florian Steiner
Translation (c) 1971 by James W. Grant
Leipzig: F.A. Brockhaus AG

Brazil forms a special case in South American history for a great number of reasons. There are two reasons any ten-year-old schoolchild knows: firstly, unlike much of the rest of the continent it speaks Portuguese rather than Spanish, and by extension was colonised by Portugal rather than Spain. Secondly, it is the only (native) monarchy on the continent. Moreover, while the several republics formed from what was Spanish America have frequently been plagued by civil war and interregional conflict, Brazil has retained a relatively stable form of government since independence, with the second oldest functioning constitution in the Americas after that of the United States. This becomes even more impressive when one consider the massive size of the country – it's the third largest country in the world by surface area – and the heterogeneity of its population. So why did Brazil develop differently to all of its neighbours, and how can these differences be seen in today's Brazilian society?…

…In 1800, Brazil was a much smaller nation than it is today. Its population was just over three million, of which some 1.6 million, or a little over half, were enslaved. A further 400,000 were free blacks of various kinds, around a quarter of a million were natives, and the remainder, or just about a million Brazilians, were white. Like everywhere else in the Americas at the time, the economic and political systems were entirely under the control of the whites, but the racial barriers were notably less rigid than elsewhere. Mulattos (mixed-race descendants of whites and blacks), in particular, were able to gain some degree of prominence within the hierarchy, chiefly as enlisted soldiers and artisans. This was not due to a lesser degree of racism among the Brazilian elite, but rather can be explained by a lack of available whites to fill these positions in society, and the fact that mulattos were better treated by society the lighter their skin was (some even passed as white for all intents and purposes) should serve to underline the purely pragmatic reasons for this seeming abandonment of racial doctrine.

In general terms, early 19th-century Brazil was a thoroughly preindustrial society, with a small landholding and merchant elite making up perhaps two percent of the total population and controlling the entire apparatus of government and the entire economy between them. Even poor whites had next to no power in the system, although they were still better treated than mulattos and free blacks, and miles above the slaves. Slavery was the lifeblood of the Brazilian economy at the time, as nearly all Brazil's exports were either agricultural products (mainly sugar, later coffee) or minerals from the plentiful mines in the southeast of the country (centred upon the aptly-named province of Minas Gerais, or “General Mines”). Brazilian slavery was even harsher than that practiced in the United States or the Caribbean at the same time; a popular saying claimed Brazil was “Hell for blacks, Purgatory for whites and Paradise for mulattos”, and there can be no doubt whatsoever that the first part of this was true. The average lifespan of a black slave in Brazil was eighteen, and very few ever managed to reproduce. While this averted the particular horrors of a family-based slave economy such as that of the United States, where families could be broken up and sold off one by one at their master's whim, this can hardly be said to outweigh the unique horrors of the Brazilian slavery system. Aside from the harrowing mortality rates, the biggest of these was probably the fact that the low rate of slave reproduction meant that new slaves constantly needed to be brought in from Africa to keep the system alive, and by the 19th century Brazil accounted for some two-thirds of the Atlantic slave trade by itself…

…Who, then, ruled Brazil? Two groups dominated the local economy, and thus were able to exercise control over those parts of the political system not subject to Portuguese control. On one hand there were the plantation and mine owners who owned the means of production, on the other hand there were the merchants who controlled the export of the former group's products across the sea to the mother country (which held a crown-enforced monopoly on all Brazilian exports until independence, in accordance with the mercantilist doctrine that still held sway over its ruling class). Unlike the situation in Europe in the same period, in Brazil it was generally the landowners who espoused liberal ideas and the merchants who tended toward conservatism. This difference in alignment can be explained by the presence of the third faction in Brazilian politics: the monarchy, and before independence the entire Lisbon bureaucracy, which exerted its own influence upon the nation's politics. The merchant class were intimately connected to Portugal by virtue of the economic system's mercantilist nature, and many of them had been born there; as a result, they were inclined to favour stronger ties to the mother country, and with it, a stronger monarchy. On the other hand, the landowners were nearly all native-born Brazilians, and they desired an independent Brazil that could trade with whomever it liked and govern with a lighter hand.

In addition, one must consider the relatively uneventful way in which Brazil had won its independence. Although republican revolts, inspired by the revolutions in the United States, France and Haiti, had occurred several times in the closing years of the 18th century, the Portuguese crown had a firm enough hold on Brazil by 1807 that they considered Rio de Janeiro a safe place to move the royal court when Napoleon threatened the Portuguese metropole. From its position in Brazil, the Portuguese empire was reformed into a “United Kingdom”, wherein Brazil and Portugal would be of equal status, and Rio itself was developed into a proper capital city with such features as an opera and several newspapers (though these were subject to heavy royal censorship). When the crown moved back to Lisbon in 1821, Prince Pedro, the eldest son of King João VI, was left in Brazil as Prince Regent. Rumblings of discontent in Portugal over the previous years had been eased by King João's return, but still threatened to boil over, and the Cortes threatened to turn Brazil back from its newly-granted status as an equal partner to a mere Portuguese colony. Prince Pedro seized the moment, and in a lavish ceremony in Rio de Janeiro in December of 1822 he was crowned as Dom Pedro I, Emperor of Brazil. Without a shot fired or an official removed, independence had been achieved.

The new empire got its constitution in 1824, and this established a system somewhere in between absolute monarchy and parliamentary rule – there was to be a separation of powers inspired by that of the United States, with executive (the Emperor and State Council), legislative (the National Assembly) and judiciary (the courts) powers all independent of one another, but unique to Brazil was the addition of a fourth power – the moderating power, invested personally in the monarch, which would serve to ease tension and resolve disputes between the other three powers and take extraordinary action when such was deemed necessary to protect Brazil's independence. The National Assembly would consist of two chambers, the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate, of which the former would be elected indirectly by electoral colleges in single-member districts, with at least one member per province, and the latter would be chosen to serve for life by the Emperor from a shortlist of three candidates selected by each province [1]. Dom Pedro had written the constitution himself, and put it into force through imperial decree, when the constituent National Assembly's proposal angered him – he nonetheless maintained that his constitution was “twice as liberal” as that proposed by the Assembly, and whether or not that was true, it was clearly a work of political genius as it kept the nation together and remains in force with alterations to this day… [2]

…While most of the elite in Rio were happy to support Pedro I's position, this general goodwill did not extend uniformly to the provinces. In particular, the province of Pernambuco in the northeast of the country was unhappy with being ruled from a distant capital, and when the Emperor named a president for the province without consulting the local powers that be, the latter rose up in revolt intending to proclaim a federal republic. The “Confederation of the Equator”, as it was called, received support from republicans across the northeast, but nonetheless the rebellion was squashed within three months. Lord Cochrane, a retired British admiral who led the Imperial Brazilian Navy against the rebels, was brought into the Brazilian nobility as Marquess of Maranhão, as was customary for victorious military leaders, and Pernambuco quieted down as the Emperor agreed to issue an amnesty for all participants in the rebellion except its leaders, who were summarily tried and executed.

The next provincial rebellion proved far more troublesome. The province of Cisplatina, in the far south on the River Plate, had been a constant source of friction between Spain and Portugal during the colonial period, with both sides laying claim to it and frequently fighting over its allegiance. On the one hand, its inhabitants were mainly Spanish-speaking; on the other hand, in this age before railways and the opening of the interior, Brazil's only reliable route to its interior provinces was by way of the River Paraná, which had its mouth in the River Plate; any nation that controlled both sides of the river would have a stranglehold on Brazilian commerce and governance. Brazil had taken control of the province in 1821, nominally as a protective measure to ensure the republican revolution in the Argentine wouldn't spread east, and while it was given broader autonomy than the other provinces, it still resented being ruled by what it saw as a foreign power. In 1825, a convention of notables declared Cisplatina's independence from Brazil, with the intention of joining the United Provinces of the River Plate, causing Brazil to send its army into the breakaway province while blockading the port of Buenos Aires with its navy. The resulting “Cisplatine War” lasted three years, with very little in the way of movement or decisive battles, before the British brokered a “neutral” peace treaty that created an independent Cisplatine state, named Uruguay, while requiring that the Paraná and Uruguay river systems would remain unconditionally open to Brazilian shipping.

The Cisplatine War had weakened the Emperor's authority, but the final crisis would come from quite a different source – Portugal. The fact that the ruler of Brazil was simultaneously a senior member of the Portuguese royal house turned out to be problematic [3] when King João died in 1826 and the throne fell to Dom Pedro, who immediately abdicated in favour of his daughter Maria. However, the new queen was opposed by a powerful conservative faction who argued that Pedro had disclaimed the Portuguese throne when he declared Brazil's independence, and that the rightful heir was therefore Infante Miguel, the Emperor's younger brother, who conveniently happened to share their views in all important respects. Miguel overthrew Queen Maria and took the throne for himself in 1828, sparking a lengthy civil war. In order to protect his daughter and, by extension, keep his homeland from falling back into absolutism, Dom Pedro decided to abdicate the Brazilian throne in April of 1831, leaving it to his six-year-old son, who was acclaimed Emperor Dom Pedro II immediately after [4]. Brazil was entering a new era…

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This contemporary cartoon depicts Prince Pedro being reluctantly spurred on by John Bull while Miguel tries to hold onto his crown with the aid of an Austrian Grenzer who props him up.

From “Portugal 1800-1900: A Century of Strife”
(c) 1987 by José Antonio de Sousa
Cambridge University Press

The Miguelite War is often seen as parallel to the Carlist War in Spain, and certainly there are prominent similarities. Both wars resulted from the accession of an underaged female monarch and discontent arising from this in conservative circles, and both were triggered by an attempted coup d'état at the hands of the new queen's reactionary uncle. But this obscures the significant differences between the two conflicts: in Spain the Carlists only managed to capture some parts of the country, and the conflict was largely a siege by the liberals of their positions. By contrast, in Portugal the supporters of Dom Miguel were able to take over the entire administration, aided by the fact that the two main opponents of the Infante's rule were a seven-year-old girl and her father who was busy governing Brazil at the time. The Portuguese liberals thus found themselves completely outmaneouvred, and it fell to Dom Pedro, the Emperor of Brazil and Dom Miguel's older brother, to abandon his new throne in a quixotic attempt to reclaim the Portuguese kingdom for his daughter… [5]

…Dom Pedro arrived at Porto, the most liberal major city in Portugal [6] and the site of the first liberal insurrection against Dom Miguel's rule, on the 9th of July, 1832. From there, he hoped that the peasantry would rise in support of their rightful queen – a hope that would quickly prove optimistic in the face of facts. The liberal army engaged a larger Miguelite force at Ponte Ferreira, and although they were victorious, the force was decimated to the point of being unable to pursue its enemy, and ultimately it was forced to fall back to Porto, which was the site of a year-long siege…

…The stalemate ended in June of 1833, when a segment of the liberal army left Porto aboard British ships to land at Faro, in the far south of Portugal, whence they would march to Lisbon. To the astonishment of all parties involved, this was successful, and the Duke of Terceira's liberal force took the capital on the 17th of July. Dom Pedro himself was able to move south from Porto later that month, and the liberals thus controlled the entire coast, with Dom Miguel's supporters confined to the rural inland. Dona Maria was proclaimed Queen at the end of the year, and the surrender of the Miguelites was negotiated over the spring of 1834. Dom Miguel himself gave up his claim to the throne and was banished from Portugal forever, in exchange for which he received a pension from the Portuguese treasury and amnesty for his supporters. Portugal was whole again, and although Maria was queen in name, it was known who actually commanded the kingdom: Dom Pedro, who would remain the power behind the throne for two decades to come… [7]

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[1] I'm a bit uncertain as to precisely how this worked – if there was a single senator per province or if they were assigned seats as the Emperor pleased, or if there was actually a fixed number of nationwide senators and the Emperor picked each one from among all the candidates nominated by all the provinces. I haven't found a source more detailed than what's written in the update, and if one exists, I'm sure it's in Portuguese (a language I do not speak). If anyone knows, clarification would be much appreciated.
[2] This is obviously not true IOTL, but the 1824 constitution did last through the entire imperial era, which was marked by remarkable political stability (by Latin American standards anyway) and was only undone by Pedro II's lack of desire to see the monarchy go on after his own demise – after the Republic was proclaimed in 1889, a new constitution was written, and this has been replaced a number of times (the current constitution, dating from 1988, is the seventh since independence).
[3] Who knew having the heir apparent of your chronically unstable former colonial overlord as your monarch would come back to bite you?
[4] Everything up to this point is either pre-PoD or so close after the PoD that nothing differs.
[5] For those of my readers who don't instinctively memorise royal family connections (and this being Pre-1900, there won't be many of those), here's a rundown of the Portuguese royal family: King João VI had two sons, Pedro and Miguel, of which the former was the Emperor of Brazil and the latter a mere infante (junior prince), but was regarded as the rightful heir by those who felt Pedro had disclaimed his right to rule. Pedro had a single son, also called Pedro, who was left to rule Brazil when his father returned to Portugal, as well as a gaggle of daughters, the oldest of which inherited the throne on his abdication. Miguel, on his hand, had a large family, none of whom played the slightest role in all this except perhaps as a pragmatic reason for him to take over (having more children who could potentially inherit).
[6] Weirdly, given how it would later become a monarchist stronghold and the region around it remains a centre of power for the Portuguese right.
[7] IOTL, Pedro caught tuberculosis from his exposed position during the war, and died not long after the peace was signed at the age of 35. ITTL, this does not happen.
 
And some bad news - as I've resumed my studies (and am running out of finished updates to post), from this Friday, updates shall be once a week on Fridays.
 
Hmm. If Brazil is the third largest country in the world, then I think we've got at least two out of the top four broken up- even adding Uruguay and Paraguay doesn't quite get it up there. The US is one obvious candidate but which of the other three is an interesting question- Russia probably has too much of a lead so either British North America doesn't confederate, or China's lost some territory (Tibet and East Turkestan?)

And Dom Pedro I surviving for a couple of decades- that suggests he might be in a position to make semi-frequent trips across the Atlantic, in which case Dom Pedro II ends up with a distant father who he doesn't see for extended periods of time, rather than a dead one, and that might just be enough to nudge matters later on.
 
Lot of hints in that Brasil update -- third-largest means another country (America, Canada, Russia, China) has less land (China is probably the easiest, giving their crippling 19-20th century instability -- hope we avoid a Russia-screw :p), or that Brasil is truly a continent-spanning superpower (Brasil needs a Pacific port, the Baron of Maua needs railroads, and someone needs Alsace-Lorraine!)

If Brasil retakes or keeps Cisplatina/Uruguay, conquers Paraguay and the Chaco, and gets even more land in the far Amazon interior from Colombia, Ecuador and the like, that could also help. Maybe they could get a Pacific port by truly beating the shit out of Argentina and Bolivia and maybe Chile -- taking Missiones and northern Argentina would make Brasil the kings of the Southern cone. Alternatively, they could cannibalize Portugal's empire. They obviously had extensive economic ties with Angola -- if you need help with Mozambique and the Africanized "Portuguese" landowners there, I have some books. Brasilian Goa and Timor (and Macau!) would also be lulzy -- it gives Brasil an alternative source of post-slave plantation labor, especially from China.

Also, the Empire survives, which is yuuuuuge. The second-oldest constitution suggests stability -- and obviously the American government, by extension, is never outright replaced. The (native) monarchy part, I presume, refers to Guyana and Surinam as outside monarchies?
 
#8: The Barbour of Seville
A House Divided #8: The Barbour of Seville

Let our object be: our country, our whole country, and nothing but our country. And, by the blessing of God, may that country itself become a vast and splendid monument, not of oppression and terror, but of Wisdom, of Peace, and of Liberty, upon which the world may gaze with admiration forever!”

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From “Waxhaws to White House: The Life and Times of Andrew Jackson”
(c) 1962 by Dr Josiah Harris
Knoxville: University of Tennessee Press

Having been comfortably returned to office in the 1832 elections, and seen the end of the Nullification Crisis, Jackson set about completing the economic agenda on which he'd staked his reelection bid. The recharter of the National Bank had been vetoed, the House of Representatives now had a solid pro-Jackson majority, the Senate remained finely balanced between the pro- and anti-Jackson camps [1], and Jackson himself had received a landslide majority in the presidential election. Taken together, these factors led Jackson to conclude that he'd been given a popular mandate to end the Bank before its charter was up. To this end, he fired McLane from the Treasury Department, replacing him with Levi Woodbury, a former Governor of New Hampshire whose views on monetary policy and the Bank aligned well with Jackson's. In his December 1832 address to the new Congress, Jackson called for an investigation into the “safety” of federal deposits in the soon-to-be-dismantled Bank; Speaker of the House James Polk proceeded to launch such an inquiry by a seven-man commission, which would report in March of 1833…

…To what extent the commission's findings were directed by political pressure and to what extent they were prompted by genuine motivated concerns about the Bank is unknown, but in any situation, it ended up issuing a divided ruling which declared by a margin of four to three that the deposits were in danger and should be removed as soon as possible. The House convened to vote on removing the deposits later that month, and despite the best efforts of Webster and Clay to rally its members to the Bank's rescue, it ended up passing the divestment bill in a party-line vote. The federal deposits were divested from the National Bank and moved to a number of “pet banks” across the country over the course of the spring, with the official policy change occurring on May 1. The Bank had been killed… [2]

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From “A History of the U.S. Economy, 1776-1976”
(c) 1979 by Professor Thomas Scotson (ed.)
Charlottesville: University of Virginia Press

The Panic of 1836

The Panic of 1836 was one of the most severe thus far in the nation's history, and probably the most intensely politicized. It's commonly held by those superficially versed in history that the panic was caused by President Jackson's dismantlement of the Bank of the United States, but this is an oversimplification of a situation that had, in fact, been building up for several years…

…When the Bank of England, faced with a worsening economic situation in Great Britain, raised its interest rate to almost twice what it had been in 1835, it created a ripple effect that forced American banks to do the same. The effects of this could've been less disastrous than they ultimately were, if the U.S. economy had been better regulated than it was, but the demise of the National Bank meant that there was no aid to be found, and the less-remembered actions taken by Andrew Jackson in his second term were scarcely more helpful. Notably, the transfer of significent federal deposits to a number of “pet banks” in the West meant that currency was moved away from the traditional banking markets of the Northeast, and the banks were forced to scale back their loans. In turn, the effects of the contracted loan market were exacerbated by the Specie Circular, issued in 1835, which required payment for all federal land to be given in specie [i.e. hard gold or silver currency]. The Circular was passed with the best of intentions – Jackson and his hard-money allies believed it would curb speculation and encourage land purchases by actual settlers – but its timing was deeply unfortunate, and caused a price crash on land that worsened the panic further…

…So it was that by April of 1836, the United States was entering the worst financial crises in its history, and the presidential election of that year would come to be dominated by the response to it…

***

From “The Statistical Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections”
(c) 1992 by Horace Finkelstein (ed.)
New Orleans: Pelican Books

1836: In the Shadow of Jackson

The 1836 election was the first in twenty years not to feature either John Quincy Adams or Andrew Jackson [3], and additionally marked the first time neither party had an obvious candidate going into the election. On the Democratic side, President Jackson declared categorically that he would honor the tradition of not seeking a third term, deciding instead to retire to his plantation when his term was up in March of 1837. This left the nomination open, and at their convention in May of 1835, the delegates were divided on whom to support. A group of northern Democrats, centered on the New York “Locofoco” faction [4], wanted to nominate Martin Van Buren, the Minister to London, who was a noted minarchist and opponent of the Bank, but whose lukewarm track record on slavery worried the southerners, and his candidacy utterly failed to win traction. Instead, the choice fell upon Vice President Philip Pendleton Barbour of Virginia, who held the sway of the party's southern wing and was nominated on the first ballot. In order to shore up the ticket north of the Mason-Dixon line, the convention nominated William Wilkins of Pennsylvania as his running mate…

…On the opposition side, the Anti-Masons had largely folded into the Republican Party, establishing the two-party system that would last the next forty years. The party was strongly divided after Henry Clay decided against standing a second time. Some New England Republicans wanted to see Adams run again, but they were hugely outnumbered by Daniel Webster's supporters, while the southern wing of the party mainly supported Senator Willie Person Mangum [5] of North Carolina, although a small group of states-rights anti-Jacksonians backed John Tyler [6]. Many westerners wanted to draft Clay, while New York and Pennsylvania were divided between all these candidates, with some New Yorkers backing favorite-son candidate Francis Granger. However, when William Henry Harrison, retired general and hero of the Indian campaigns in the War of 1812, announced he was a Republican, he quickly became the obvious unity candidate. He was acceptable to the party leaders because he promised to give leeway to Congress, and seemed to share their fundamental views on the role of government. As a national hero, he was already a household name in most of the U.S., and it was hoped that the “star power” that had helped propel Jackson into the White House could have a similar effect for Harrison. Mangum was chosen as Harrison's running mate to secure votes from the South, particularly the crucial swing state of North Carolina…

…The campaign was dominated by one issue: the mounting economic depression. The Democrats tried to make the case that the National Bank had indirectly caused the panic by issuing large amounts of paper currency and thus creating a speculation bubble, but these arguments fell short, and for many voters, the Republicans appeared to have been right about the Bank all along. Harrison received momentum from this, but Jackson still remained personally popular, and Barbour's status as a continuity candidate meant that he put up a significantly better fight than another Democrat might have done…

…The year 1836 saw two new states admitted, the first time this had happened since 1820 – as per the usual mode of operations, the admission of Arkansas Territory as a slave state was offset by a free state created from the peninsular part of Michigan Territory [7], and both were given three electoral votes until the 1840 census returns had established their population. As such, 294 electoral votes were at stake, and divided themselves as follows:

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William Henry Harrison was thus elected the 8th President of the United States, becoming the first Republican to hold that office… [8]

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***

From “Waxhaws to White House: The Life and Times of Andrew Jackson”
(c) 1962 by Dr Josiah Harris
Knoxville: University of Tennessee Press

Jackson left office on March 3rd, 1837, having completed his two terms not in peace, but without the sort of violent upheavals that have marked power struggles in the other American republics. It is a testament to the quality of our democracy, even in its earliest, most chaotic days, that even through the heady days of nullification and the Bank War, even when his opponents were calling him a tyrant and an abuser of power, everyone nonetheless recognized Jackson's popular mandate and allowed him to remain President; had he been the President of Mexico or Colombia, doubtless there would've been an uprising against his rule at some point [9]…

…Having left office and Washington with it, Jackson returned to private life as master of the Hermitage, his cotton plantation just outside Nashville. When he arrived, it was to find that his adopted son Andrew Jr., who had been left to manage the plantation while Jackson was in Washington, had done a poor job, and the elder Jackson immediately set upon restoring it to good working order. He would go on to live out the remaining seven years of his life as another Tennessee planter, much like Washington before him, and apart from taking to the stump against President Harrison's re-election bid in 1840, did not involve himself in politics…

***

[1] IOTL, a number of southern senators (most notably John Tyler) crossed the floor in protest against the Force Bill. As a result, the 23rd Senate had an anti-Jacksonian majority. ITTL, with the crisis headed off slightly more peacefully, this break does not occur, and most of the South stays solidly with the Democrats.
[2] IOTL the commission ruled the opposite way, declaring the deposits safe, and Jackson was forced to resort to executive action. Further fracas in the Treasury Department meant that it took until October before the deposits could finally be divested.
[3] Finkelstein is being a little disingenuous here, since the one vote cast for Adams in 1820 was by a faithless elector, and a purely symbolic gesture intended to keep Monroe from being elected unanimously.
[4] The Locofocos were a group of Democrats in New York State who were noted for their extremely laissez-faire economics and their opposition to New York's Tammany Hall political machine (their name derived from a brand of matches, which they supposedly lit their meetings by after Tammany Hall tried to shut them down by turning off the gaslights). In many ways they were very similar to modern-day fiscal conservatives (classical liberals to a Europer), and their agenda came to have a large influence on the fiscal policy of Jackson's, and especially Van Buren's, administrations.
[5] Mangum pronounced his first and middle names “Wylie Parson”. This, impressively, is actually far from the worst butchering of grammar seen in 19th century American politicians' names.
[6] Hugh White is still a Democrat ITTL, so the South has no obvious unity candidate to bridge the gap between the nullifiers and the Clay men. With fewer nullifiers in the party, Mangum (a Clay supporter if ever there was one) becomes the South's candidate largely by default, and the few small-government Republicans back John Tyler.
[7] An all-Troll version of the state gets admitted ITTL.
[8] Not counting John Quincy Adams, of course.
[9] The author's biases are not necessarily my own (at the very least I'd be a lot less crass about them), but do broadly reflect popular opinion in the U.S. as of the time Harris was writing.
 
Lot of hints in that Brasil update -- third-largest means another country (America, Canada, Russia, China) has less land (China is probably the easiest, giving their crippling 19-20th century instability -- hope we avoid a Russia-screw :p), or that Brasil is truly a continent-spanning superpower (Brasil needs a Pacific port, the Baron of Maua needs railroads, and someone needs Alsace-Lorraine!)

My lips are sealed for now - although as Alex points out, third place means Brazil is two places ahead of where it is IOTL.

If Brasil retakes or keeps Cisplatina/Uruguay, conquers Paraguay and the Chaco, and gets even more land in the far Amazon interior from Colombia, Ecuador and the like, that could also help. Maybe they could get a Pacific port by truly beating the shit out of Argentina and Bolivia and maybe Chile -- taking Missiones and northern Argentina would make Brasil the kings of the Southern cone.

Well, it's worth remembering that Gran Colombia is still a thing ITTL, and will likely push for its claims with as much, if not more, vigour than Colombia and Venezuela did IOTL. Argentina on the other hand...

Alternatively, they could cannibalize Portugal's empire. They obviously had extensive economic ties with Angola -- if you need help with Mozambique and the Africanized "Portuguese" landowners there, I have some books.

I may just take you up on that at some point...

Brasilian Goa and Timor (and Macau!) would also be lulzy -- it gives Brasil an alternative source of post-slave plantation labor, especially from China.

Hmm, there's an idea. I'm not sure how well bringing in lots of brown/yellow people squares with the Brazilian elite's racial views though, as I understand it they were pretty keen on prioritising white immigration IOTL, so as to alleviate their shame over living in a "mongrel" nation. Certainly pragmatic arguments might outweigh racial ones in the end though.

Also, the Empire survives, which is yuuuuuge. The second-oldest constitution suggests stability -- and obviously the American government, by extension, is never outright replaced.

By the TL's present day, the US Constitution of 1787 is still in effect in at least part of the original territory of the United States.
 
Hmm, there's an idea. I'm not sure how well bringing in lots of brown/yellow people squares with the Brazilian elite's racial views though, as I understand it they were pretty keen on prioritising white immigration IOTL, so as to alleviate their shame over living in a "mongrel" nation. Certainly pragmatic arguments might outweigh racial ones in the end

Japanese immigration was huge later in the century for Brasil's coffee plantations IOTL -- and southern China,sent out waves of immigrants to SE Asia and thr US.
 

Gian

Banned
I haven't heard from the Native Americans ITTL, though I assume with the Indian Removal Act defeated, many would still try to cling to their old territories, perhaps even staying there in the present-day.
 
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