A Fourth Balkans War?

Poland and Romania enjoyed very good relations during the interwar period, and kept their border open to receive refugees during the German attack in 1939 (I don't know about the Hungarians, but I would imagine they probably did as well - this in itself is irrelevant to the suggestion at hand). Now, the German campaign in Poland cost the Wehrmacht quite a lot in terms of machines and parts, and although it was quite impressive, it was a gamble in some ways. So my question is, what would have been the consequences for Germany if Romania had signed an alliance with Poland?

First, is it plausible? To my mind it certainly seems so: it would dovetail quite nicely with French plans in central Europe vis a vis the 'petite entente,' and it would accomodate Romanian plans/concerns with Hungary as far as containing any possible military actions to regain Transylvania. It would also be useful to both countries in the event of difficulties with the Soviet Union. So with this in mind, let us suppose that such an alliance does come into existence by 1938. If Hitler still believes in his superior military genius and rolls the dice, what happens?
 

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I wonder if France and Britain can supply this organization through the Black Sea?
 
If Romania declares war on Germany and mobilizes, would the generals move against Hitler? The Romanian Army is slow and has older army equipment, but it is a big army. And it seems to me the Wehrmacht could only face ONE opponent in 1939. Your thoughts?
 
If Romania declares war on Germany and mobilizes, would the generals move against Hitler? The Romanian Army is slow and has older army equipment, but it is a big army. And it seems to me the Wehrmacht could only face ONE opponent in 1939. Your thoughts?

If Romania do that, it will be attacked by URSS, Bulgaria and Hungary!
Maybe even Yugoslavia will want to "protect" the Romanian Banat.

So, it will gets screwed big time!
 
If Romania do that, it will be attacked by URSS, Bulgaria and Hungary!
Maybe even Yugoslavia will want to "protect" the Romanian Banat.

So, it will gets screwed big time!

I have doubts that any of those powers were in any position to launch offensives in 1939 against Romania, let alone a joint Romanian-Polish alliance. Forgive me if Im coming off condescending, for that is not my intention. Maybe the U.S.S.R could try, but their performance in 1939 isn't exactly the greatest.

I thought Poland and Romania did have a defense agreement, but Poland, not wishing to alter their relationship with the Western Allies, did not initiate it when Germany invaded. If anything, I think Romania and Poland may have put up a good show against the old Whermact, but the threat of a Soviet intervention on the Romanian border may have kept any meaningful aide from reaching the Poles. But a demonstration of solidarity and unity may have stopped the Soviets from entering the conflict.

What can Romania bring to help the Polish really though? They'd need to properly mobilize and call up reserves first. From some quick Internet research it appears they had a decent fleet of Czech light tanks and some French R-35, their airforce is outdated though. In all as far as quality, Id say they are roughly on par with Poland in regards to equipment, not sure about how many divisions they had, but a few Romanian Army units may be enough to at least stabilize the front in Poland, give Poland time to finish mobilizing, organize counterattacks. Or they might suffer the same fate of being surrounded and cut off in pockets, as what befell the Poles. I think personally, it would make some difference. But superior tactics can often beat superior numbers.
 
I have doubts that any of those powers were in any position to launch offensives in 1939 against Romania, let alone a joint Romanian-Polish alliance. Forgive me if Im coming off condescending, for that is not my intention. Maybe the U.S.S.R could try, but their performance in 1939 isn't exactly the greatest.

I thought Poland and Romania did have a defense agreement, but Poland, not wishing to alter their relationship with the Western Allies, did not initiate it when Germany invaded. If anything, I think Romania and Poland may have put up a good show against the old Whermact, but the threat of a Soviet intervention on the Romanian border may have kept any meaningful aide from reaching the Poles. But a demonstration of solidarity and unity may have stopped the Soviets from entering the conflict.

What can Romania bring to help the Polish really though? They'd need to properly mobilize and call up reserves first. From some quick Internet research it appears they had a decent fleet of Czech light tanks and some French R-35, their airforce is outdated though. In all as far as quality, Id say they are roughly on par with Poland in regards to equipment, not sure about how many divisions they had, but a few Romanian Army units may be enough to at least stabilize the front in Poland, give Poland time to finish mobilizing, organize counterattacks. Or they might suffer the same fate of being surrounded and cut off in pockets, as what befell the Poles. I think personally, it would make some difference. But superior tactics can often beat superior numbers.

You are correct, Poland DID have a defence agreement with Romania, and it was Poland who asked Romania to stay out.

If Poland and France ask Romania to join, I have little doubt it would - PM at the time was Armand Calinescu, who was very pro-British, and would see the move as a way to shore up his position.

However, this is where things get complicated.

What is the position of the other Balkan states and of the Soviet Union WRT this new situation? What do the British and French do? What actions does Romania take? It can all go in very different directions...

USSR
Stalin was a very, very cautios person, who never went into a fight he was unsure he could win. At the time, the Franco-British alliance looked very, very strong to the outside world, and Stalin had no reason to challenge it. Therefor, if Romanian, or even worse, British and French units, start arriving in south-eastern Poland (the area Polish planners called "the Romanian Bridgehead", where they intended to make their last stand), Stalin may very well postpone his invasion of Poland and wait for the Germans to occupy the region before pressing his claims; or, at the very least, only send in forces into the northern sector (a low-probability event IMO). In any case, he is almost certain to not open hostilities with Romania

Hungary
Hungary was no friend of Romania at the time. However, they were in absolutely no position to join the were, given the state of their army, and they knew it. They were still hampered by the the former restricitions imposed upon them by Trianon, having little modern equipment and an airforce that was still forming.

For example, during their invasion of Carpatho-Ukraine, they managed to muster
an infantry regiment, two cavalry regiments, three infantry battalions on bicycles, one motorized battalion, two border guard battalions, one artillery battalion and two armored trains.

During the war with Slovakia, 4 months prior, they managed to send

5 infantry battalions
2 cavalry battalions
1 motorised battalion
3 armoured cars
70 tankettes
5 light tanks

Given the fact that, by attacking Romania, Hungary would be declaring war one France and Britain as well, and the fact that there existed the ever-present danger that Yugoslavia would attack them as well, i have doubts Hungary's leadership would opt for such a risky move so early on. Instead, they would most likely sit on the sidelines and bide their time.

Bulgaria
They too had demands on Romania (southern Dobrogea, aka "the Cadrilater"), they too had a mediocre army, and they too were boxed in by potentially hostile states (Yugoslavia, Greece, Turkey), all of whom had good relations with Romania and prior defence agreements, and they too risked Anglo-French intervention. Therefor, I again doubt they would opt to go down such a risky path.

The Allies
Britain and France had quite a number of assets in the eastern Mediterranean, which could in theory have been transferred to Romania, either through the Turkish straights and unloaded in Constanta or via rail through Yugoslavia. If they get at least some token ground and air forces into southern Poland on time, it would greatly complicate Stalin's planning.

Assuming the above holds true, what we get is a greatly prolongued Polish campaign that sees several Polish divisions (most likely (1) the remnants of Operational group Boruta, itself the remnants of the Krakow army - 2 infantry divisions, 1 motorized brigade and 1 mountain brigade; (2) the remnants of Karpaty Army - 3 infantry divisions, 2 mountain brigades and assorted smaller units and (3) the remnants of Northern front, itself a remnant of Modlin army, totalling 39k men from a whole number of units) fall back to the south-east where they link up with several Romanian divisions and minor Franco-British forces. These probably force the over-extended panzer spearheads to halt and wait for the infantry to catch up, by which time the autumn rains should start.

With the roads turned to mud and the concentration of allied forces growing as they retreat towards an ever smaller chokepoint, it's unlikely the Germans, already very far away from their supply lines, manage an encirclement. Instead, the opposition probably continues to withdraw to the Romanian border.

Now the question we have to ask ourselves is whether or not France presses on with its Saar offensive, whether Hitler feels forced to withdraw units west if they do, and if so how many. Furthermore, we got to ask ourselves what strategic decision do the Germans make - do they leave Romania alone and strike France in May, or do they use the November-April period to invade Romania, or even forgo attacking France untill* Romania is completely conquered?. If they go for Romania though, the delay it entails and the attrition to their mechanized units and airforce almost surely means Sickle-Cut fails, if and when it's attempted.


* - given the winter weather, autumn and spring mud and the bad roads, this would mean a Romanian surrender sometime in May-June 1940, possibly as late as July
 
The German High Command was historically very concerned about the campaign in Poland because it ate up a lot of military stores, and a lot of other equipment was damaged or destroyed. Of course the campaign looked good and tactically it was brilliant, but it really was a throw of the dice, as I suggested in an earlier thread. I really do expect that the German generals and Hitler's conservative backers would have turned on him in an instant if the French and British had moved into the Rhineland. The Germans had absolutely no way of stopping the Allies.

Of course, we know that Ribbentrop was working feverishly to conclude a non aggression pact with the USSR which netted Moscow the eastern part of Poland. I suppose Hitler would have no choice but to grant the Soviets whatever they would want from Romania - even though the Germans had plans already for the Balkans. My reading on the subject suggests that at the same time Germany was attempting to do this, however, the British and the French were also attempting to get on good terms with the Soviets - a revival of the Entente? In any case, it would be interesting to see what happens if the non aggression pact fails to materialize for some reason, or Stalin misses his opportunity with Hitler because he has dragged his feet too much. I suppose Hitler will beg, cajole, and threaten Hungary to do SOMETHING, but as mentioned, Horthy has only a few old toys to play with at this point. As much as he may wish to use this as a pretext for addressing the Trianon issue, the reality is going to preclude any military adventures.
 
* - given the winter weather, autumn and spring mud and the bad roads, this would mean a Romanian surrender sometime in May-June 1940, possibly as late as July

But why would Romania have to surrender in such conditions, when in otl it was quite helpful to the Soviets during the German campaign in the SU? If the Allies land in Romania, they could then provide at least a small amount of military supplies, could they not? I don't know how much they would be willing to send, but surely anything would be helpful to the Romanians.
 
Romania joining might be a question of timing. Poland was beaten within a few weeks, so even if Romania joins it might not be able to mobilize fully before Poland is beaten. Supplies from France and Britain also take time to arrive (and Turkey might close the straits to warships)

IF Germany is victorious Hungary might throw in its lot with Germany -

Ultimately this move would probably have led to Russia being at war with France and England...
 
This war would not have been a fourth Balkan war since,there where only two war so you need at least a third one before this one and then war can not be a Balkan war since it will involve country’s that are out side of the Balkans,so it will be a Central European war.
As for the question from the op,the answer is no,it is not plausible,because of the fallowing reasons,Romania was trying to get closer to Germany,so the allies France and UK will have to give a substantial help to Romania,for her to give up her neutrality and plans with Germany and then there is the state of the Romania army.
 
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