it could possibly lead to a populist candidate running for president, advocating for common people and saying that someone with less wealth should run the presidency since "they know the struggles of common folks" or something along those lines. Could be effective messaging ITTL whether on the left, right, or Reform.
A Flock of Eagles: A TLIAW
- Thread starter True Grit
- Start date
it could possibly lead to a populist candidate running for president, advocating for common people and saying that someone with less wealth should run the presidency since "they know the struggles of common folks" or something along those lines. Could be effective messaging ITTL whether on the left, right, or Reform.
Seems very plausible - I wonder how practical Sanders’ small-donation strategy would be without social media to drive hype, but I imagine someone will at least try it.
Well it also depends on when it happens. In the early 2000s maybe considering TV existed but the candidate would have to be a ratings gem since the media generally views populists less kindly than the establishment candidates. If they’re bombastic, loud, and just good reality TV yes they could bring attention and money to their campaign. A good example of that is Jesse Ventura who despite being a mayor of a small city managed to bring a lot of attention and therefore votes into his camp and win in ‘98. So I can see it.
Or just wait until there’s a recession in ‘08 or sometimes in the 2010s assuming Glass-Steagall is repealed as IOTL for the populist candidate to emerge. That way social media is around and running a campaign off small donations becomes way easier than having to hope the media wants to cover you.
Fun. Enjoy a Bill Paxon reference.
People who don’t remember the Perot candidacy like myself often overlook that the MIA-POW “issue” was what first really catapulted Perot to national attention, before his NAFTA comments.
People who don’t remember the Perot candidacy like myself often overlook that the MIA-POW “issue” was what first really catapulted Perot to national attention, before his NAFTA comments.
44. Ann Richards (Democratic), 2005-2006
Heading into the first wide open election in over a decade, the first time no incumbent would be on the ballot since 1988, 2004 would see no shortage of candidates stepping up to the plate. For the Democrats, the party hoped to leverage Rockefeller’s high approval ratings to win a third term in office, while for the Republicans they hoped to follow up their 2002 victories and return to the White House for the first time in twelve years. For Reform…well, they just hoped to keep their head above water. For the Democrats, the primary was a bit of a dull affair; though Bob Kerrey, Charlotte Pritt, and Paul Wellstone tried to make it competitive, Vice President and former Texas Governor Ann Richards waltzed to victory and easily secured the nomination by Super Tuesday. Having secured the nomination, Richards would quickly tap Defence Secretary Dave McCurdy as her running mate; though McCurdy would provide little geographic balance to the ticket, hailing from the state immediately north of Texas, he had earned strong reviews upon assuming the DoD post after the death of his predecessor, and his selection was believed to add foreign policy and national security credibility to the ticket.
For the Republicans it was a slightly different story, ambitious politicos not content sitting out an election they had strong odds at winning resulting in a crowded field. Strong campaigns from Governor Stephen Goldsmith and Senator Rudy Giuliani flamed out early, former Governor Fred Grandy’s victory in his home state of Iowa failed to translate into any success nationally, Governor Mitt Romney’s six years in power left many a bit skeptical of his attempts to highlight himself as a conservative, and Senator George Allen’s third-place finish in the South Carolina primary would push him out of the race, resulting in a three person contest between Governor Jeb Bush and Senators John McCain and Julie Nixon Eisenhower. Bush, the former President’s son-turned-Governor of Florida, would highlight his southern, “compassionate conservative” credentials and quickly earn the support of the party establishment where his last name still had immense influence. McCain and Eisenhower, elected to the Senate in 1986 and 1998, respectively, would both strike somewhat more moderate tones, though while McCain would cast himself as a maverick unafraid of speaking harsh truths and taking on the establishment, Eisenhower, the daughter of a President and granddaughter-in-law of another, would like Bush try to appeal to those in the party who still viewed her family with reverence. With Bush winning South Carolina and Nevada fairly easily after sitting out Iowa, McCain would emerge as his main rival, his surprisingly strong second-place finish in New Hampshire producing positive momentum despite Eisenhower’s win in the Granite State. Though McCain’s brief surge would force Eisenhower out of the race shortly after Super Tuesday, McCain would be unable to overtake Bush and would himself withdraw a few weeks later, allowing the Florida Governor to become the party’s presumptive nominee. Recognizing his appeal within the party and strength as a campaigner, Bush would quickly tap Allen as his running mate, albeit with mixed results; Allen’s tendency to speak off the cuff would provide occasional headaches for Bush’s campaign staff, and joint events with the two running mates campaigning together would leave Bush coming off as a tad boring in comparison.
Rounding out the major parties, the Reform nomination would prove to be surprisingly competitive for a party that had been written off after 2000, though the bizarre list of candidates of vastly different political stripes running for the nomination was perhaps emblematic of the party’s long-term prospects. Candidacies from experienced politicians affiliated with the party since its founding gave the party some credibility, among them ex-Connecticut Governor Eunice Groark and 2000 nominee Tim Penny, but the rest of the field included 1992 Democratic nominee Jerry “Moonbeam” Brown and hard-right ex-Republicans Pat Buchanan and Ron Paul, leading many to question what the party even stood for beyond generic anti-globalization policies. Instead of rallying behind Penny, Groark, or any of the other politically experienced candidates, the party would largely support two celebrities, albeit ones with very different natures. Warren Beatty would briefly be the frontrunner, launching an unabashedly progressive campaign highlighting the failures of what he deemed an uninspiring centrist administration, but deciding his heart wasn’t in it Beatty would withdraw only three months into the race, having already admitted to running for Reform only to obtain ballot access. In Beatty’s absence the party would turn to real estate magnate Donald Trump, campaigning on a populist platform of fair trade, eliminating the national debt, and expanding universal health care. Though his opponents would quickly attack Trump as too controversial to win an election, Trump would pour millions into his campaign and steamroll his opposition, formally securing the nomination after Penny’s withdrawal in May 2004. For his running mate Trump would pick former Democratic Congressman-turned-media personality Peter Navarro, the ex-Congressman having established himself in the House as a hard core protectionist, vocal opponent of free trade, and self-stylized champion of the working class.
The campaign would go down as one of the nastier campaigns in recent memory. Richards’ opponents would launch whisper campaigns accusing her of being both an alcoholic drug addict and a closeted lesbian, Bush’s opponents would label him a warmonger for his calls to go after Saddam Hussein and attempt to tie him to scandals coming out of the Florida State House, and Trump’s opponents would point to his business and personal difficulties of the preceding decade to label him a man unfit to become President, invoking the unpopular presidency of Ross Perot to argue the last thing America needed was another populist businessman at the helm. Richards and Bush themselves would opt to stay above the fray, preferring to keep their personal appearances positive and leave the mudslinging to their surrogates, while Trump would quickly prove himself to be a bull in a china shop, ignoring the traditional norms of campaigning and leaning into the populism that had defined his campaign. Still, though Trump’s campaign looked likely to surpass Penny’s 2000 performance, for the most part he proved to be a sideshow as the campaign remained a race between Richards and Bush. Though less than one percent would separate the two in the popular vote, on Election Day Richards would narrowly prevail, securing a third term for the party and becoming the first female President of the United States. In an added victory for the party Richards’ coattails would allow the Democrats to win back the Senate, though the Republicans would manage to hang on to the House of Representatives by the skin of their teeth.
The 2004 election. In Wyoming, two of the three electors pledged to Trump would instead cast their votes for former Secretary of State Colin Powell after the Reform nominee was recorded insulting the state the week after the election.
Once in office Richards quickly set about enacting her agenda, or at least as much of it as she’d be able to enact with a Republican House. As was the case with Rockefeller, one of Richards’ main priorities would be health care reform. Like her predecessor, the new President had made health care a defining issue of her campaign, and though Jaycare had become fairly popular with the public it remained an irritant to both Richards and its namesake, the two still bitter about the bill having been watered down by the Senate. Recognizing that substantial health care reform would be unlikely to muster the 60 votes needed to overcome the Senate filibuster, Richards and HHS Secretary Howard Dean would instead opt in favour of slow, incremental action designed to push the country’s health care system in a more left-wing direction over time, slowly paving the way for future, more progressive changes. Other domestic priorities of Richards’ term would include the Smart Jobs Program (imported from her time as Governor of Texas and designed to retrain unemployed workers in slowly dying industries), increased infrastructure spending in rural America, and a series of tax breaks to encourage economic development and improve the economy after its slight dip in the early 2000s. Richards would also be fondly remembered as the champion of the little guy and underserved communities, and for elevating more women and ethnic minorities to the highest levels of power than any of her predecessors. Within one year alone Richards would shape the Supreme Court more than her predecessor had in eight, appointing Rockefeller appointee Fortunato Benavides as Chief Justice following the death of William Rehnquist, Yale Law School dean Harold Hongju Koh to replace Benavides as Associate Justice, and Ninth Circuit Judge Margaret McKeown following the reluctant retirement of Sandra Day O’Connor. Internationally, Richards would govern during a time of relative stability, and though Afghanistan continued to be a headache it was clear that the country was on the path to victory. The tolls of the conflict would instead be passed down to her successor.
For someone so revered today, someone who had accomplished a great deal during less than two years in office, it’s a shame Richards didn’t last longer; despite giving up the habits decades earlier, her years of heavy drinking and smoking would finally catch up to her. Diagnosed with esophageal cancer in March 2006, despite undergoing treatment including surgery, radiation, and chemotherapy, Richards would pass away on September 8, bringing an end to her brief, memorable time in the White House and leaving many to lament what could have been and what she could have accomplished had she survived. Today, Richards remains a lionized figure among the public. While it’s hard to view the death of a trailblazing, popular President as anything but a tragedy, if there’s one silver lining in Richards’ passing it’s the additional awareness it gave to the dangers of esophageal cancer. One of the deadliest forms of cancer and rarely detected early, when it’s most treatable, Richards’ death would spur greater advances in screening in an effort to avoid similar tragedies, and where once the five-year survival rate was about 10% within a decade and a half of Richards’ passing and increased efforts at early detection that number would rise to around 30%. That in and of itself might be one of her greatest legacies. As it stands, Richards’ legacy as a champion of women and underserved communities, and as a fervent supporter of liberal causes, has a strong advocate today; her daughter Cecile would follow her mother into public office a decade after her death, being elected to the Senate from New York and picking up where her mother left off.
Last edited:
AllThePresidentsMen
Banned
What state is Romney currently running? It's probably not Utah (because their governors are elected at the same time as the president). Is it Massachusetts, Michigan, or some dark-horse state?
45. Dave McCurdy (Democratic), 2006-2013
Taking the helm after Richards’ death, Vice President McCurdy would quickly learn he had his work cut out for him. While certainly experienced – prior to becoming Vice President he was Rockefeller’s Secretary of Defence, and before that a Senator and Representative from Oklahoma – McCurdy would soon find himself struggling to both step out of Richards’ shadow and win over a party not entirely enamored with his cautious moderation. Hoping to compliment his own national security expertise and pick someone above the partisan fray who could easily be confirmed by Congress, McCurdy would nominate Eric Shinseki, the former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and a hero of the Second Korean War, to replace him as Vice President. While the midterms two months after Richards’ death would make picking a unifying, non-partisan figure unnecessary (with the public still mourning Richards the Democrats would maintain their hold on the Senate and narrowly flip back the House), Shinseki’s nomination nevertheless earned McCurdy some additional goodwill and by the end of November he would be sworn in as the nation’s first Asian American vice president.
Making it immediately clear that he intended to seek a term of his own in 2008, with the Democrats back in control of Congress McCurdy quickly set about establishing a record of his own he’d be able to run on. Working alongside Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle and House Speaker Harold Ford, McCurdy would get to work fast, further extending insurance benefits to uninsured Americans, investing an additional $3.5 billion to spur and reward innovation in education, confirming D.C. Circuit Judge Merrick Garland to the Supreme Court following the 2008 death of Thomas D. Barr, and continuing the legacy of Richards’ infrastructure spending and Smart Jobs Program. McCurdy’s first two years in office were not without headaches, though: his support for gun control measures in the aftermath of the Timberline shooting, while broadly popular, would be met with vociferous opposition from Republicans (and more subdued opposition from red state Democrats), making him unpopular in his home state and putting a dent in his credibility with rural America, even after the proposals were watered down by the Senate. A deficit hawk and penny pincher by nature, McCurdy’s reluctance to spend would irritate many of his party’s progressives. For them, he is viewed with disdain, thought to have wasted the opportunities given to him. But we’ll get to that later.
With McCurdy waltzing to victory in the Democratic primaries, easily securing the nomination over Representative Dennis Kucinich and progressive former West Virginia Governor Charlotte Pritt, the Republicans would see a wide open race, the party believing that after 12 straight years in office the country would finally vote to send the Democrats packing. Initially, the frontrunner appeared to be Arizona Senator John McCain, the party’s 1996 vice presidential nominee and the runner-up in 2004. McCain would stumble early on though, well-liked but seen as yesterday’s man and soon falling behind in both polls and fundraising. Dan Quayle, McCain’s fellow Arizonan since moving to the Copper State in 1996 and the state’s Governor since being elected in 2002, would start the race with high name recognition but little else going in his favour, the baggage from his time as George Bush’s Vice President still an albatross around his neck. New York Senator Rudy Giuliani had a fiery populist appeal and seemed to be a strong candidate to win over moderate Democrats and Reformers, but the baggage surrounding his 1998 divorce and rumours of corruption prevented him from truly breaking out. Mitt Romney’s attempt to position himself as a conservative after eight years governing as a moderate left many viewing him as a flip flopper, Gary Franks was undone by allegations of impropriety stemming from his time as Governor of Connecticut, John Ensign and Gale Norton seemed more interested in setting themselves up for 2012, and Darrell Issa was met with a resounding shrug.
Ultimately, three candidates would rise to the top, each of them current or former Governors with well-known personas: Oklahoma’s Steve Largent, New York’s Susan Molinari, and North Carolina’s Richard Petty. Largent, a Seattle Seahawks icon and member of the Pro Football Hall of Fame, had cut his political teeth after being elected to the House of Representatives in 1994, where he quickly earned a reputation as an unabashed conservative unafraid at making his moderate colleagues uneasy. Elected Governor in 2002 despite a GOP split nearly handing the election to Democrat Laura Boyd, Largent would spend the following six years governing as a social conservative darling, and he hoped to use this popularity to mount a successful bid for the presidency against his fellow Oklahoman. Molinari, like Largent, had served in the House of Representatives before leaving for greener pastures, being elected Governor of New York in 1998 after the long awaited retirement of Democrat Mario Cuomo and flipping the state into Republican hands. With husband Bill Paxon serving as Speaker of the House during her entire eight year tenure the two would quickly emerge as one of the most politically powerful couples in American history, and their combined network would quickly make Molinari the establishment favourite. However, the campaign would not go entirely smoothly for Molinari: not only would she find herself subject to the same sexist attacks she had faced throughout her political career accusing her of being little more than her husband’s puppet, but her relative moderation made social conservatives wary and few in the party were all that thrilled with nominating a supposed legacy candidate for the third time in a row. Rounding out the field would be Petty, like Largent known more for his career before politics than his time in public office. A NASCAR legend known as the king of stock car racing before his 1992 retirement, Petty had been a fixture on the GOP fundraising circuit for years before finally entering the fray himself, narrowly elected North Carolina Secretary of State in 1996. Though criticized for a supposed lack of vision and juggling two jobs at once by continuing to dip his toe in NASCAR events and endorsement deals, Petty would narrowly be elected Governor four years later in the face of a poor Democratic campaign. While Petty would to some degree prove his critics right, not taking a particularly active role on legislating and preferring to delegate to his staff, the results seemed to speak for themselves: North Carolina’s economy was growing, unemployment had gone down, and Petty was re-elected in a relative landslide in 2004 even despite Democrat Mike Easley’s concurrent election to the Senate. Running as a populist pledging to get big money out of politics and crusading against corruption, Petty hoped to portray himself as the compassionate conservative middle ground between Largent and Molinari and point to his popularity back home in order to win the nomination. Though early primaries might have implied otherwise, he would do just that; after finishing third in Iowa and second in New Hampshire, Petty would score strong victories in South Carolina and Nevada and secure the nomination shortly after Super Tuesday. Citing the need to shore up support with female voters following his defeat of Molinari, Petty would pick as his running mate Colorado Senator Gale Norton, a conservative favourite and a former presidential candidate herself.
In an unfortunate fall from grace for the party (though perhaps it’s charitable to even say they fell that far), the Reform Party would enter the election as an afterthought at best and a punchline at worse. Though the 2004 election had seen the party rebound after Tim Penny’s dismal 2000 performance, the subsequent four years had not been kind to the party. Unsure of what direction to take the party now that anti-globalization was no longer the major issue it once was, the party fell into infighting as it became clear the party had never managed to effectively stake out a cohesive place on the ideological spectrum. The 2006 midterms had proven to be a disaster for party, nearly wiping out their entire caucus in the House, and 2004 nominee Donald Trump would leave the party in a huff, citing the party’s internal difficulties and privately hoping to hitch his wagon to a different party. Ross Perot would eventually manage to recruit former Rhode Island Governor Robert J. Healey to seek the nomination (after attempts to recruit Republican Senator Buddy Roemer flamed out), but even the former President would find his influence had fallen in the movement he had established as the party instead rallied behind libertarian populist Ron Paul, the ex-Republican Congressman cross-endorsed by the Libertarians. With Paul more extreme than many were willing to tolerate, much of the party’s past voters would instead split between McCurdy and Petty (McCurdy appealing to the party’s earliest radical centrist supporters, and Petty appealing to those looking for a populist outsider to shake up the system). Listed as the Libertarian candidate in some states and the Reform candidate in others, Paul would largely be ignored by the party establishment throughout the campaign and earn just 4% of the vote as the nation seemed to revert to the two-party system. Still, the election was not without a silver lining for the party, as they were able to return to the Senate for the first time since Ben Nighthorse Campbell’s 2002 retirement following the election of former Governor Angus King in Maine.
With a two-person race for the first time in twenty years, McCurdy and Petty would run heated, albeit uninspiring campaigns. Though a rather toned down affair absent the personal mudslinging that had characterized the 2004 election (though the McCurdy campaign would nevertheless raise questions surrounding Petty’s business dealings while in office and bring up a 1996 hit and run incident), McCurdy’s message of stable leadership and fiscal restraint failed to rile up the party base and Petty was once again accused of lacking vision, a generic poster boy for Republican policies (tax cuts, deregulation, greater commitment to fighting terror overseas) without any particular priorities himself. Instead of pivoting towards a more policy focused campaign in the wake of these criticisms, Petty would lean into them, campaigning more on himself as an individual, hoping to turn the election into a popularity contest between him and the dull McCurdy and not wanting to get too into the weeds with policy. To a certain extent this worked; Petty remained popular throughout the campaign, leaning into his reputation as “The King” with his trademark cowboy hat and sunglasses and attracting enthusiastic crowds, but McCurdy and the Democrats continued to hammer him as out of his depth (McCurdy in turn leaning into his reputation as a policy wonk), and it became clear that while the country liked Petty more as an individual they trusted McCurdy as a stronger voice on policy. With the race in a dead heat, it remained to be seen whether or not the country would prioritize personality or policy.
They chose the latter, albeit narrowly; after it became clear that McCurdy’s margins in Ohio, Virginia, and West Virginia would not be reversed, Petty would concede the race to McCurdy the day after the election. Though Petty had focused his campaign around his personal popularity and high approval rating, one unfortunate blunder in his concession speech would chip away at some of the goodwill he had managed to accumulate; claiming that he wouldn’t have bothered running if he knew he wasn’t going to win, Petty would irritate some of his supporters who had worked so hard to try and get him elected and appear to vindicate Democratic attacks that he didn’t have any particular policy priorities himself. Still, Petty remains a generally popular figure in American politics, particularly among Republicans, and though courted to run for the Senate in 2010 Petty has spent the years since the 2008 enjoying a happy retirement from public office.
The 2008 election. Narrow victories in Ohio, Virginia, and West Virginia are credited with giving McCurdy a term of his own.
Unfortunately, the fact that Americans chose to re-elect a national security wonk proved to be fortuitous. On the evening of April 6, 2009, United Airlines Flight 26 from London en route to Denver exploded while flying over Kearney, Nebraska, killing everyone on board and twelve on the ground; al-Qaeda soon claimed responsibility. Just when Americans were beginning to think the war against al-Qaeda had reached its end it had begun anew. McCurdy and Secretaries Powell and Roemer were quick to respond, committing American troops to routing out al-Qaeda in the Middle East and putting further resources towards locating al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri and the American-born Anwar al-Awlaki, one of the group’s main organizers. More controversial would be some of the measures introduced to prevent similar attacks from occurring in the future, including the expansion of the National Security Agency’s mass surveillance programs and the creation of the Aviation and Transportation Security Administration (ATSA) designed to place the government in charge of airport security and enhance screening procedures. While McCurdy was at the time credited with taking decisive action these decisions continue to be criticized by civil libertarians. Unfortunately for McCurdy, he would not be able to oversee an end to this fight against al-Qaeda and, though the group had been undoubtedly weakened, he would end up having to pass the conflict on to his successor.
When it came to domestic policy, McCurdy’s luck wouldn’t be much better. Emboldened by the 2008 election in which the party held onto the presidency and both houses of Congress, progressive Democrats renewed their efforts to push McCurdy to the left, with little success. Climate change and energy policy would be a particularly thorny issue, and while McCurdy’s 2009 energy legislation would be broadly popular, credited with boosting innovation in energy and reducing consumer costs, progressives would criticize the bill for not going far enough, increasingly worried about the threat of climate change and opposing McCurdy’s support for fracking and the fossil fuel industry in the name of economic development. Having clashed with McCurdy almost immediately since taking office in 2009, EPA Administrator Robert F. Kennedy Jr. would leave the administration in early 2011 and announce a bid for Rudy Giuliani’s Senate seat shortly thereafter. Though the circumstances of Kennedy’s departure are still unclear (McCurdy allies would claim he was fired for mismanagement and repeatedly going behind the President’s back, while Kennedy allies claiming he resigned as a matter of principle), progressives would point to Kennedy’s departure as proof McCurdy was not serious about climate change and an enemy of environmentalists.
The Democrats would likely have lost the 2010 midterms beforehand, but the onset of a recession in early 2010 sealed the deal. With more and more people finding themselves out of work amid the worsening economy, a divisive President, and an unpopular Speaker of the House seen as too cozy to Wall Street, Democratic candidates found themselves on the defensive and unable to combat the Republican surge. On Election Day, the Republicans would manage to flip both the Senate and the House and leave McCurdy with even fewer allies than he had going in. Still, there was some silver lining for the McCurdy administration in the party’s losses; forced to work the Republicans to get any legislation passed, McCurdy was given a convenient excuse to govern from the centre without having to juggle the demands of his party’s progressive members. While that’s not to say McCurdy’s last two years in office were particularly productive, nor that his relationships with House Speaker David Dreier and Senate Majority Leader Don Nickles were particularly strong (though he and Nickles shared a certain respect for one another dating back to their time representing Oklahoma together in the Senate), it’s nevertheless clear that McCurdy felt a certain amount of freedom during his lame duck period. Still, it’s perhaps fortunate for McCurdy’s reputation that he was unable to seek an additional term in office; he would not have gotten it had he tried.
Last edited:
Dave McCurdy, now there's a figure rescued from obscurity. Had to look him up, but his prominence ITTL makes sense, as does how you've used him. He is definitely the sort of figure who'd become a rising star if only because of where he represents, but then quickly find himself off-side the broader party precisely because of his home state, with all the tension that implies. Still seems like a pretty decent president, even if he has the misfortune of following Ann Richards.
Interesting to note that all three of these Democratic presidents are all from the South. That's not too far removed from OTL, what with Clinton and Gore, but it's still more pronounced here. I wonder if that's affecting the party's image, strategy and direction somewhat— I see West Virginia is still voting Democrats for president, at least.
Interesting to note that all three of these Democratic presidents are all from the South. That's not too far removed from OTL, what with Clinton and Gore, but it's still more pronounced here. I wonder if that's affecting the party's image, strategy and direction somewhat— I see West Virginia is still voting Democrats for president, at least.
AllThePresidentsMen
Banned
Well she did die at around the same time IRL. Only 1 week later, in fact.
Last edited:
46. Jon Huntsman (Republican), 2013-2021
As the nation entered 2012, much was being written about the future of the Republican Party and their long-term viability. The year would mark the twentieth anniversary of the 1992 election that cost the Republicans the White House, and they had been unable to win it back since. 1996 could have returned them to the White House, but nominating Bob Dole had not been their best decision; 2004 could have brought the party back, but Jeb Bush missed on an open net; and worst of all, 2008 should have been there’s for the taking, particularly with one of the most personally popular presidential candidate in years in the form of Richard Petty, but even then the party had been consigned to defeat. If they could not when then, when they had so many things going in their favour, could they even win at all? Or was the party doomed to opposition indefinitely? 2012 would answer these questions, and with an unpopular Democratic President term-limited out of office optimistic albeit anxious Republicans would once again set their sights on the White House.
The Republicans certainly had a lot of options. Steve Largent, John Ensign, and Gale Norton, veterans of the 2008 campaign, hoped that the second time would be the charm; Florida Governor Charlie Crist pitched himself as a moderate conservative with a strong record to show for it, but his obvious and immediate ambition for higher office had rubbed some the wrong way (famously, Crist had begun pitching himself as a candidate for national office within days of first winning the governorship); Texas Senator Carly Fiorina pitched herself as a maverick outsider with a strong private sector background; Utah Governor Jon Huntsman ran as a fiscal conservative and foreign policy moderate, and would point to his overwhelming approval ratings back home; and South Dakota’s John Thune put his name forward as a reliable conservative with youth and good looks on his side. His third-place finish in 2008 making him the early frontrunner, Largent would start the campaign as the candidate to beat, but with that status would come intense scrutiny. Critics would point to his unabashed Christian conservatism to label him too risky to nominate, while others would point to questions concerning Largent’s record as Governor and his 2009 ethics reprimand for using state resources in his 2008 campaign. With his polls dropping and never quite managing to bounce back, Largent would withdraw after Super Tuesday. Ensign would briefly emerge as the campaign’s frontrunner before an infidelity scandal forced his withdrawal, while Norton would similarly see her brief time in the lead halted for less sordid reasons, gaffes leading to concerns about her viability as a national candidate and her fundraising soon drying up. Instead, two candidates would rise to the top, Fiorina and Huntsman, both pitching themselves as a new type of Republican who would be able to return the party to power after far too long in the wilderness. Running as a bit of a foreign policy hawk and a bit of a social conservative but more than anything else as an outsider with proven experience in the private sector, Fiorina, the former CEO of AT&T and a first term member of the Senate since being elected to fill Tom DeLay’s seat in 2009, would attempt to position herself as the candidate best suited to fix the country’s weakened economy. Fiorina’s pitch was not without its weaknesses; some conservatives questioned how committed she was to their cause, while critics would contend her that her time in the private sector was not the success Fiorina portrayed it as. Still, Fiorina polled well, most Republicans looked at her private sector career and generally liked what they saw, and it was clear the party was looking for an outsider. They just happened to choose a different outsider than Fiorina.
Jon Huntsman had an impressive resume for a Republican primary. The scion of a prominent Republican family, Huntsman had served as Ambassador to Singapore under Bush (and, briefly, Perot) before returning to the private sector. In 1999, Huntsman would rise to greater prominence after being named President and CEO of the Salt Lake Organizing Committee, tasked with rescuing the 2002 Winter Olympics amid a fiscal crisis and bribery scandal. Succeeding in his efforts and heralded as the savior of the games (hyperbolic, sure, but the image stuck), Huntsman would ride this to a landslide victory in Utah’s gubernatorial election two years later before being handily re-elected to a second term in 2008. Entering the presidential race in June 2011, Huntsman would seek to stake out the middle ground, running as a reliable fiscal conservative promising low taxes and with proven experience turning around struggling organizations, and as a relative moderate elsewhere, supporting civil unions, the scientific consensus on global warming, and efforts to combat climate change. Most of all, Huntsman ran as a candidate who could win, pointing to his landslide victories even by Utah standards and his popularity with independents. While Huntsman’s social moderation left some Republicans uneasy, his economic credibility and continued goodwill from the 2002 Winter Olympics proved more popular than his moderation was unpopular, and five losses in a row and a series of social conservative gaffes in the 2010 midterms left the party willing to make concessions if it meant returning to power. Huntsman’s expected waltz to victory would briefly be placed in limbo following Fiorina’s surprise Iowa victory, though subsequent wins in New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada would return the Governor to frontrunner status and, though Fiorina would keep the race close, Huntsman would become the party’s presumptive nominee following her May withdrawal. Sensing the need to shore up his support with social conservatives, Huntsman would tap former Mississippi Governor and former RNC Chair Haley Barbour as his running mate, Barbour being viewed as a steady hand and strong fundraiser unlikely to overshadow Huntsman or do harm to the ticket.
Despite the gloomy national environment for the party, the Democrats too would see a wide variety of candidates put their name forward, the appeal of the first truly open nomination since 1996 being too great to resist. Senators Bob Carr, Howard Dean, Frankie Sue Del Papa, Richard Ieyoub, and Bob Wise, Governors Hillary Clinton and Ted Strickland, and former Speaker of the House Harold Ford all entered the race over the course of 2011, and each were thought to have a realistic shot at the nomination. Unfortunately, this field highlighted one of the party’s problems: having been in power for 16 years and having been wounded by the midterms, the party lacked a deep bench of new, young talent. All had been in politics since at least the 1990s, Strickland was in his 70s, Carr, Clinton, Dean, Del Papa, Ieyoub, and Wise were in their 60s, and even Ford had been a fixture in Washington for years. With the GOP expected to nominate either Huntsman or Fiorina, the Democrats entered 2012 seemingly doomed to nominate a candidate at risk of being labeled an old hand, representing the last twenty years of Washington politics and all of the baggage that entailed.
Ultimately, the race would be whittled down to three: Clinton, Ford, and Strickland. Governor of Arkansas since 2007 and before that the state’s First Lady for nearly twenty years, Clinton campaigned as a southern moderate while invoking the memory of President Richards, pitching herself as a champion for disadvantaged communities and a candidate with a solid economic record. With her husband Bill in the Senate helping win over many of his colleagues to her side, Clinton would quickly become an establishment favourite. Ford would portray himself as a ground breaking candidate, winning the support of Wall Street and many of his former colleagues in the House, but his divisive tenure as Speaker left him widely loathed by progressives. Strickland, meanwhile, campaigned as a Christian progressive and populist, touting his record on child care, education and criminal justice reform. Pointing to his statewide appeal with Republicans and independents, Strickland cast himself as a candidate who could retain the White House. Though the early primaries would split three ways (Strickland winning Iowa despite having earlier gotten into hot water for calling the caucus undemocratic, Clinton winning New Hampshire, and Ford winning South Carolina), with Clinton and Ford competing for the same coalition and splitting the vote Strickland would pull into a sizeable lead after Super Tuesday and secure the nomination by mid-April. Conscious of his weakness with black voters (at least in comparison to who he bested in the primaries), Strickland would tap as his running mate Virginia Governor John Boyd, like Strickland a popular “champion of the little guy” and making history as the first African American member of a major party ticket.
Shifting gears to the general election, Strickland would pitch himself as a proven progressive in the mould of Rockefeller and Richards, a champion for the little guy with a record to back it up. Still, though popular with the Democratic base, Strickland would find himself harmed by more than a few verbal gaffes on the campaign trail that only served to highlight his age, and the Ohio Governor would struggle to overtake Huntsman and distance himself from the unpopular McCurdy administration. Huntsman himself would opt to run a more positive campaign than previous Republican nominees, refusing to attack Strickland on a personal level and blanket the airwaves with attack ads, likely recognizing the country was looking for a breath of fresh air and making the political calculation that making the election a referendum on the McCurdy administration would pay far greater dividends than making it a referendum on Strickland himself. Assailing McCurdy’s handling of the economy and the war against al-Qaeda, Huntsman would find that most Americans agreed with his complaints. One thing they did not entirely agree with was Huntsman’s endorsement of Barbour. While chosen as a running mate who would be popular with the party base, Barbour’s connections to the establishment would become a bit of liability for the Huntsman campaign following attacks on Barbour’s history as a lobbyist. As perhaps should have been expected of a Deep South conservative who had grown up in the civil rights era, Barbour also had some liabilities on the issue of race, and repeated instances of comments insensitive at best did not provide him with the best reputation; remarks made during his debate against John Boyd would produce unfortunate headlines, and Boyd’s measured response would lead many to declare him the debate’s winner. The Huntsman/Strickland debates would be less dramatic affairs, though Strickland’s penchant for verbal slipups would continue to follow him and the two would get into a heated back and forth after Strickland implied Huntsman had cheated on his taxes. Ultimately though, despite his best efforts Strickland was again unable to close the gap. America was looking for a change and they voted accordingly, giving Huntsman 347 electoral votes and a 7 point victory. Twenty years later, a Republican had finally returned to the White House.
The 2012 election. With the Buckeye State backing its Governor by a two-point margin, Huntsman would become the first Republican to win the White House without winning Ohio.
With the Republicans in control of the White House, Senate, and House of Representatives for the first time since the 1950s, Huntsman, House Speaker David Dreier, and Senate Majority Leader Don Nickles would move quickly to enact his platform. Fiscally, Huntsman would reform the nation’s tax policy despite vocal left-wing opposition (though dividing congressional Democrats), abolishing the capital gains tax, lowering the corporate tax rate by ten percent, and eliminating most tax deductions and credits in favour of significantly lower general rates. Raising the Social Security retirement age and cuts to defence spending proved more controversial, with left-wing critics branding cuts to Social Security as inhumane and hawks on both sides treating cuts to military spending as sacrilegious. Still, despite this opposition both would pass the Republican Congress fairly easily. Also irritating defence hawks, Huntsman would follow through on his promise to lessen America’s involvement in Afghanistan. Arguing that the country had already achieved its main goals in Afghanistan by defeating the Taliban and driving out al-Qaeda, Huntsman would characterize America’s continued presence as a waste of resources that could be better used elsewhere and would commit to significantly scaling back America’s military presence by the middle of 2014, upon which time only some special operations forces and military trainers would remain. Though hawks would accuse Huntsman of abandoning America’s partners and retreating in the face of the Taliban, Huntsman would stick to his guns and by May 2014 America’s presence in Afghanistan would be significantly reduced. Though vulnerable over his decision on Afghanistan, Huntsman would be given significant leeway following the January 2014 capture of al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri by Pakistani officials, dealing what would later prove to be an irreversible blow to the terrorist organization. Though initial speculation raised fears the organization would rebound under a new leader as it had following the death of Osama bin Laden a decade earlier, and there existed a certain fear of retaliatory measures, in truth the terrorist organization had been falling apart for years before al-Zawahiri’s capture. Plagued by internal turmoil over al-Zawahiri’s leadership and significantly weakened in the aftermath of the American response to the United Airlines Flight 26 bombing, al-Qaeda would descend into infighting and ultimately splinter in the aftermath of al-Zawahiri’s capture.
Adding to Huntsman’s fortunes, the Democrats found themselves struggling to adjust to being out of power for the first time in sixteen years. Ideological battles would come to dominate the party in the early years of the Huntsman administration, the party divided between those wanting to stay the course and those wanting to pivot to a more left-wing direction, while even the party’s victories were short lived: though they managed to win back the House of Representatives in 2014, new Speaker Bob Menendez would be forced to resign less than a year into his tenure after being indicted in a corruption probe. Though House Democrats would move quickly to replace Menendez with Majority Leader Diana DeGette, DeGette would struggle to heal the party’s ideological divides and be unable to shake the baggage of the Menendez controversy; within months, polls showed the Republicans winning the generic ballot and Huntsman on track for a solid re-election victory. Still, even with less than favourable odds of victory, there were no shortage of Democrats eager to take Huntsman on. Hillary Clinton and Bob Wise launched second bids for the White House after losing out in 2012, John Boyd hoped to take advantage of his well-received stint as Strickland’s running mate, Charlotte Pritt launched a quixotic bid despite a decade out of office highlighting her early opposition to Dave McCurdy, Governors John Hickenlooper and R. T. Rybak sought to highlight their executive experience, Admiral Joe Sestak sought to highlight his military record, and relatively new Senators Beau Biden, Barbara Buono, Amy Klobuchar, and Anthony Weiner each attempted to portray themselves as the candidate best able to lead the party into the future. With Boyd, Klobuchar, Sestak, Weiner, and Wise flaming out early and narrowing the field, early victories in Iowa and New Hampshire would make Biden the candidate to beat. Though the next few primaries wouldn’t go quite as smoothly for the candidate, losing Nevada to Rybak and South Carolina to Clinton, Biden, a member of the Senate since his father Joe’s 2009 appointment as Secretary of State, would rebound on Super Tuesday and cement his frontrunner status. Winning most of the remaining contests with ease as the Democratic establishment made it clear they wanted the primaries over as quickly as possible so as to focus their efforts on Huntsman, Biden would be declared the presumptive Democratic nominee. 28 years after his father’s unsuccessful bid for the Presidency, Beau had succeeded where Joe had come short.
To some in the party, Biden’s nomination invoked memories of the Kennedy campaign nearly sixty years earlier, with Biden’s Catholicism, youth, charisma, and military service naturally leading to comparisons with the former President. A strong campaigner and popular in the swing states of the Rust Belt, Biden looked like he might actually give Huntsman a run for his money, and it’s believed that Huntsman’s surprise decision to nominate popular Pennsylvania Governor Bruce Castor to the Supreme Court was made in order to shore up his support in the region. Biden might have been able to beat Huntsman, though he would never get the opportunity to find out. Long open about his battle with glioblastoma since his 2013 diagnosis, Biden’s resolve while battling with cancer had been part of what drew voters to his campaign, and through much of the 2016 campaign his cancer was in remission and his health was doing well; were it not for Biden’s openness about his diagnosis, few would have suspected he had cancer to begin with. Unfortunately, things took a turn, and they did so quickly. On June 23, 2016, only four days after being admitted to Walter Reed, Biden would pass away. In a final, bitter similarity to Kennedy, Biden’s life and political career had been tragically cut short. The nation would mourn the loss of a man who was just reaching his political prime, while the Democrats would be forced to move quickly to find a candidate to run in Biden’s stead. With Beau’s father Joe mourning his son and quickly taking his name off the table, and Clinton and Rybak lacking the delegates to merit arguing they deserved the nomination, the party would turn to former Vice President Eric Shinseki. With the Democratic establishment convincing him to put his name in the running at the convention for the same reasons McCurdy tapped him to be his Vice President a decade earlier (namely his military record and reputation as both a unifier and someone above the partisan fray), Shinseki would reluctantly agree. Despite worries about the possibility of a long, drawn out convention, Shinseki would win the nomination on the first ballot; as his running mate, he would tap former Secretary of Homeland Security Tim Roemer, the two having established a strong relationship during the McCurdy administration and believing his Rust Belt roots would allow the campaign to maintain the Biden coalition.
Unfortunately, this ticket was probably better on paper than it was in practice; the ticket may have been well credentialed, but they did not run the best campaign to show it. Shinseki’s reputation as a man above the partisan fray may have endeared him to the country, but it left him reluctant to attack Huntsman or his administration, and the few times he did he came off as awkward and insincere. With Shinseki also came the baggage of the McCurdy administration, and though its unpopularity had lessened in the four years since the Democrats were defeated it remained an easy target for Republican candidates. Roemer fared only slightly better than Shinseki on the campaign trail, more comfortable with campaigning after serving eight terms in the House, but his decade out of elected office left him rusty and meant there was still much to be desired. It was not surprising, then, that Shinseki was unable to match the lofty goals set by the Biden campaign; on November 8, the country would re-elect Huntsman by an even larger margin than his 2012 victory, giving the President 363 electoral votes and an eight point win in the popular vote. In an added blow to the party, the Democrats would lose the House of Representatives after just a single term back in power, giving Huntsman free reign to govern as he entered his second term.
The 2016 election. Huntsman would win re-election by the greatest margin of victory since Jay Rockefeller sixteen years earlier, adding Minnesota and Ohio to his column though losing Washington to Shinseki.
Though tax reform and the war against al-Qaeda had emerged as perhaps the biggest priorities of Huntsman’s first term, trade policy would come to dominate his second. A long-time advocate of the merits of free trade dating back to his time in the Bush administration, Huntsman had remained a leading advocate for free trade despite the anti-globalization backlash that brought Perot into power in 1992 and the mixed emotions towards free trade that lingered in the subsequent Rockefeller, Richards, and McCurdy administrations. Though Huntsman had managed to secure the enactment of free trade agreements during his first term despite small but vocal opposition, selling the country on the prospect of expanding markets for American exports, his expanded efforts upon securing re-election were met with stronger opposition. Huntsman’s mission to expand trade agreements across the Pacific would come under fire from both sides, his efforts at securing a free trade agreement with Japan being criticized for failing to address the imbalance in the auto trade between the two countries and his negotiations with Malaysia and Vietnam leading to concerns that American jobs would be likely to move overseas to lower-wage countries. Efforts to address the realities of climate change within these agreements would also be divisive (Huntsman believing that international cooperation would be needed to handle climate change otherwise any change the United States made would amount to “unilateral disarmament”), with conservatives criticizing said provisions (and related moves by the Huntsman administration to reduce greenhouse gases) as unnecessary government regulation likely to kill jobs. Still, Huntsman would remain firm, touting the economic advantages of the agreements and the need to increase American economic presence in Asia to counter the influence of China, though his pursuit of free trade would dent his popularity leading into the 2018 midterms. His relatively proactive environmental policy wouldn’t help him much either, most voters appreciative of the policy already fired up to vote against the Republicans for a whole host of reasons and a sizable minority of the Republican base irritated enough to stay home altogether. With Huntsman experiencing the six-year itch, Democrats would manage to flip back both the House and the Senate in 2018, install Diana DeGette as Speaker of the House and Tom Daschle as Senate Majority Leader, and leave Huntsman’s final two years in office free of any major accomplishments. In a sign of Huntsman’s rising unpopularity, the 2018 election would see the incumbent Speaker of the House defeated in their own district for the first time since 1862; a top target of California Democrats during the 2010 redistricting cycle, House Republican leader David Dreier would finally fall victim to the liberal tilt of his district and see his 38 year career in Congress come to an end.
Term-limited and unable to seek a third-term in 2020, Huntsman would leave office with high approval ratings. Though in the court of public opinion the outgoing President would not quite measure up to the legacy of Ronald Reagan, the man he had invoked so frequently during the 2012 campaign, historians would largely view Huntsman’s administration as one of the more successful presidencies in recent American history. Citing his record of economic growth, strong stewardship of international affairs, and leadership on climate change, Huntsman would receive strong reviews. That’s not to say he was without criticism; Huntsman’s technocratic tendencies would produce a strong governing record but fail to inspire much passionate affection for the man himself, progressives continued to criticize his dogged pursuit of free trade agreements, and the most conservative members of Huntsman’s own party would continue to hold his occasional moderation in low regard. Still, for the large majority of Republicans Huntsman’s presidency was undoubtedly a success; the party had finally returned from the political wilderness, and Huntsman had not wasted the opportunity. As the President began preparations to leave office and return to Salt Lake City, the question on everyone’s mind was whether or not the country would elect a candidate who would continue his legacy.
Last edited:
Huntsman taking Romney's role as Saviour of the Olympics is a nice touch.
Beau Biden's fate is even more tragic here, but I have to say I also feel bad for Eric Shinseki, constantly getting promoted against his will! I'm sure he breathed a sigh of relief when he lost.
Beau Biden's fate is even more tragic here, but I have to say I also feel bad for Eric Shinseki, constantly getting promoted against his will! I'm sure he breathed a sigh of relief when he lost.
It just occurred to me that TTL must have both "Rockefeller Republicans" and "Rockefeller Democrats". Oy.
Would this be a phrase in TTL, without Clinton being quite as prominent?
Glad to see Democrats' favorite Republican get his due, but I'm kind of scared by what happens to the right wing of the Republican Party after spending twenty years in the wilderness only to have the first Republican President afterward spend (what will feel like) about as much time and effort irritating them as anyone else.