A Dark Day for the Region

In 1967 Nassar of Egypt went to war against Israel and was beaten, but shockingly dishonest military and other professionals managed to convince not only the people of Egypt but NASSAR HIMSELF that Egypt was winning for the first 36 hours. Needless to say, this put Anwar Sadat, who had argued that the time was not right for war, in a dangerous situation for a few hours.

Now, what would have happened if Nassar, in a towering rage, had ordered Sadat murdered the first day of the war, only to realize the truth later?
 

raharris1973

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Egypt follows a Syrian style rejectionist policy

for the rest of the Cold War-

After Nasser dies, nobody else makes the unique contribution Sadat made in terms of the peace process.

Maybe in the early 80s there is a replay of the October War (which itself could be changed).

Egypt gets no US aid in that time. Israel gets aid, but less of it (as current levels date to the Camp David era).

Ironically, without a formal peace process, and without US aid to Egypt, Egyptian fundamentalists never start to blame the US for everything the Egyptian government does. Egyptian fundamentalists do fight hard at home, in Afghanistan and later in Chechnya though, as they've built up alot of animus towards the Soviet Union as backer of the Egyptian government, and that animus carries over to the Russian successor state.

Egyptians don't attack the WTC in 1993 or 2001.

That is unless of course the Soviet-backed Egyptian regime pulls a successful 'Hama' on the Egyptian Islamic Brothers like Asad did in Syria.

If Saddam's invasion of Kuwait is not butterflied away, Egypt may join the coalition against Iraq, for the same reasons Syria did in OTL. Neither like the US, but Cairo, Damascus and Baghdad all think they should be #1 and don't want to see any of the others aggrandize themselves.

Even if something like peace process talks happen in the 90s, they still may not divert Egyptian anti-regime elements against the US, because the US will not be offering a big aid package, at least well into the process. At worst, we're on target to get hit by Egyptian fundamentalists in 2010 or so.
 
Other thing is that Sadat was able to show Sovs that he is not mere puppet and kicked them out, only to allow them to come in bringing aid. Likelly Nasser's sucessor will not be able to do this thus Egypt is another Soviet satelite. Which means no peace process.

1973 war is likelly to happen in oen way or the other soemwhere around that time. Assuming Arabs loose to same degree as in OTL there are now 2 hostile powers on Israeli borders. With Egyptians becoming less belligerent toward Israel Israel could concentrate on northern front (Lebanon and Syria). Here they can't. they can't commit same level of troops to Peace for Galilee as that would leave southern front woefully undefended.

With both Egypt and syria still hostile chances are there will be soemthing like War of Attrition after 1973-like war.

OTL this was costly to Israelis but Sadat terminated it in preparation for 1973 war. here it may go on longer. With both Egypt and Syria firmly in Soviet camp Sovs would send aid to replace losses and likelly "advisors".
 
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