Lets say that the greek war of independent (1821-1823) fail miserbally, probably because of no foreigne help (or at least not britain and france), maybe because of the massacres that the greeks performed against the turks and jews. lets say that the turks succeed in doing so without Mehmet Ali takes control of the empire, like he does in many TL. The time pass and here comes 1848 and with some inspiration of the other europian revolutions, the balkans eropte in a series of rebellions but the Turks decide to manipulate them. The empire decide to promise the lats say Bulgarians or the Macdonians a status of a very autonomos region, or even to be a protactorate in an attempt to use them to supress the greeks,serbians,albanians and and romanians. After that, Bulgaria is created comprising westren bulgaria,southren serbia and macadonia (the area of the modern republic of macadonia) and the ottomans control greece,eastren bulgaria and romania (or at least Dobruja). Is this scenario reasonable?
A chance for an Ottoman balkan
- Thread starter Ahab
- Start date
Dementor
Banned
The Ottomans were very much opposed to any attempt to weaken their hold on Bulgaria (Romania on the other hand was not under their direct control), as they considered it a vital core territory. For example, a proposal to create an Ottoman - Bulgarian double monarchy ala Austro-Hungary was completely ignored, despite that it would have weakened Bulgarian desires for independence and strengthened the Ottoman Empire against the irredentism of its neighbors. And in 1876 a proposal to create an autonomous Bulgaria with substantial Ottoman control was rejected despite the imminent danger of a Russian invasion. So it seems unlikely that they would be so conciliatory after they've recently crushed a rebellion by the biggest Christian minority in the Empire.
Of course such rebellions would be unlikely in the first place, as the Balkan people would have the example of the Greek revolt to remind them of the consequence of disobedience (and they would quite severe, considering Mehmet Ali's plan to resettle Morea with Egyptian Arabs).
Snake Featherston
Banned
In the one sense it's actually relatively easy to find a justification for the Great Powers not to intervene. Simply have them decide that "no rebellions succeed" applies very strictly to Greeks but not to say, Belgians as an example of the Western European-Eastern European double-standard. This actually could for a time buy Metternichian conservative an additional decade or two before everything goes to Hell by providing at least one less problem of "If it's OK for Athens, why not for Budapest?".
The Ottomans would have been more successful in holding on to their Balkan possessions IF they had defeated Russian in 1877.
If they were successful in that war, I believe that Europe would see the Ottomans in a new light. No longer as the sickman of Europe. After all, how many countries went to war with Russia and won?
Granted that the Russians will be looking for another fight, but a victorious Ottoman Empire in 1877, w/o the loss of its best-trained troops and a crippling indemnity (that forced it to almost disband the navy) would be able to fight the Russians with more confidence and with an even better chance to win.
If they were successful in that war, I believe that Europe would see the Ottomans in a new light. No longer as the sickman of Europe. After all, how many countries went to war with Russia and won?
Granted that the Russians will be looking for another fight, but a victorious Ottoman Empire in 1877, w/o the loss of its best-trained troops and a crippling indemnity (that forced it to almost disband the navy) would be able to fight the Russians with more confidence and with an even better chance to win.
Their were no Macedonians at the time, only Bulgarians, the Macedonian identity is a modern concept, not mind you that that makes it any less valid than any other ethnic identity, but at the time it was non-existant.
Theri's no way the Ottomans are going to grant Bulgaria independence, and a Protectorate is by definition an independent state under protection of a larger state, not an autonomous part of a country.
Why would they need to 'suppress' the Albanians, afterall Albanians never caused problems and indeed held many high positions in Ottoman governance.
And aside from maybe a few thousand immigrants scattered around, their were no Romanians in the OE, as Wallachia and Moldavia were not part of the Empire, they were independent states under Ottoman Suzerainty.
Again, the Ottomans did not control Romanian lands, and 'Southern Serbia' is a very vague description.
And again, and as Dementor pointed out, the Ottomans are'nt going to create an independent Bulgaria, or even one with alot of autonomy, sure they may give them some more cultural autonomy and maybe provide them better oppurtunities in govrnment and military, but that's about it.
Southren serbia is the Nis area.so, lets say that the sultan has a bit more brain and he decide to create the autonomous region of bulgaria. romania stays under Ottoman Suzerainty.Is it ok now?
The Sultan was not a full Absolute Monarch, if enough others disagree it would'nt matter what he wanted.
Basically Bulgaria is not going to be granted autonomy before the 1870's, period, and the only way then is if they lose to Russia less badly and as a result only have to create an autonomous Bulgaria within the Empire.
Dementor
Banned
Technically, Bulgaria was constituted as an autonomous state in 1878. But it was de facto independent.
I will have to go dig up my notes from "History of Southeastern Europe in 19th century" to confirm my claim but as far as I remember Macedonian Nationalism was first expressed by a group of intelectuals in Skopje in 1834. It was not until the turn of the century before it spread to the general population and following creation of Kingdom of SHS it became popular due to opresive methods used by central goverment in Belgrade.
Oh I know it existed in that a handful supported it, but I mean non-existant in that no one at the time recognized a Macedonian identity and their were no places that identified as it.
True, but I meant just an atuonomous part, not the de facto independent Principality of OTL.
Dementor
Banned
Never heard of 1834 and seems unlikely that it would happen in a period when it was still thought that the Orthodox Christians in the Ottoman Empire were Greeks. As for the other dates, move them by 20 years and they would be correct. And if anything the creation of the SHS kingdom had the opposite effect - as anyone from Macedonia who can remember 1941 can attest.