A bunch of pretentious old men playing at running the world: George H.W. Bush and John Major win

[Strategos' Risk]

If one was to gloss over the (end of the) End of History, the years following the Cold War saw the ostensibly left-liberal parties of Anglo-America win under the mantle of telegenic, triangulating, almost post-ideological charismatic young leaders who sought to continue the neoliberal consensus of the ‘80s with a sunny, middle-class consumer-friendly human face. (I wonder if there are any other contemporaries besides Clinton and Blair. ) Going into both respective elections, Bush and Major both had respectable approval ratings, and the latter was confident he would be elected.

So, what if they did? Does this mean the ‘80s don’t end? Not just in terms of economics, still under the Reaganite-Thatcherism paradigm, but under more socially conservative regimes? (See Dan Quayle’s issues with Murphy Brown and single motherhood, with MTV, the Simpsons).

 

[Garrison]

If one was to gloss over the (end of the) End of History, the years following the Cold War saw the ostensibly left-liberal parties of Anglo-America win under the mantle of telegenic, triangulating, almost post-ideological charismatic young leaders who sought to continue the neoliberal consensus of the ‘80s with a sunny, middle-class consumer-friendly human face. (I wonder if there are any other contemporaries besides Clinton and Blair. ) Going into both respective elections, Bush and Major both had respectable approval ratings, and the latter was confident he would be elected.

You aren't suggesting that Major was confident he would win in 1997 are you? Because everyone knew that was going to be bad, just not how bad. And it would still have happened if John Smith had lived, although I suppose Michael Portillo might have been spared his moment of humiliation. Also the Tories expected to lose in 1992, hence a campaign strategy that backfired spectacularly when they were re-elected and had to enact the tax rises they had been planning to blame on Labour.

 

[Strategos' Risk]

You aren't suggesting that Major was confident he would win in 1997 are you?

I think I'll stay cool, calm and elected.

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[Look More Closely Later]

If you mean the 1997 UK General election, I don't see that Major can win without massive points of departure. Only a few months after the 1992 election, the Conservatives drove the UK economy off a financial cliff, in pursuit of Major's obsession with keeping the UK inside the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (and after pouring gawd knows how much UK taxpayers' money into the pockets of George Soros and his ilk, the UK crashed out of the ERM anyway), and every couple of months yet another senior figure in Major's government seemed to be caught up in some kind of sex and/or corruption scandal - including Jeffrey Archer insider-dealing accusations, and whatever-the-heck it was that Jonathan Aitken was doing. (And these sex and corruption antics were coming against a backdrop of Major having proclaimed a 'Back to Basics' campaign of moral rectitude.)
And the Labour Party had finally learned from Kinnock's defeat in 1992 what not to do.

IPSOS's site has both Major and his government getting absolutely hammered on a regular basis in the polls, it looks to me, by the mid 1990's: https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/political-monitor-satisfaction-ratings-1988-1997

 

[Strategos' Risk]

I'll have to admit growing up I had a copy of Encarta 2000 with the quotations built-in and the only thing I know about the 1997 British election is that John Major quote that was included for some reason. And a couple of years ago I first heard the phrase "Cool Britannia" and then saw this New Labour ad-

 

[Look More Closely Later]

I'll have to admit growing up I had a copy of Encarta 2000 with the quotations built-in and the only thing I know about the 1997 British election is that John Major quote that was included for some reason. And a couple of years ago I first heard the phrase "Cool Britannia" and then saw this New Labour ad-

Major managed to hold his own (fairly safe) seat, in Huntingdon, in 1997, so maybe he was talking about his personal situation if he really did say something about staying elected? Or maybe he had taken some kind of mind-altering substance and had a very loose grip on reality - it wouldn't surprise me with that government.

No idea about the USA side of things, and if it might be possible for George Bush (the First) to hold on.

 

[Godot]

HW might have won - very difficult, but not impossible. Incumbent presidents are institutionally advantaged and it's usually a fluke when they lose. That being said even without Perot, Bush *probably* loses.

John Major on the other hand is basically impossible to save. Everyone knew Blair would coast to a victory and the most surprising thing was how wide a victory it was. The Tories were absolutely on their way out, Major was widely regarded as ineffectual at best and incompetent at worst, and to whit most of his own party didn't even like him. Hmm, reminds me of a particular modern politician who I can't name....

That being said anyone attached to Black Monday was pretty much doomed.

 

[Strategos' Risk]

I’ll be honest, the entire impetus for this thread was I was watching a nineties retrospective series and it noted that going into the election Bush had high approval ratings and then I thought of the perfect title for a thread about if he had kept those ratings. A title in search of a scenario.

 

[Godot]

A title in search of a scenario.

Well, points for honesty, I suppose.

 

[Strategos' Risk]

 

[Godot]

Uh, ok.

 

[Strategos' Risk]

Uh, ok.

It's where I got the title.

Could be used for any number of prospective timelines, really.

 

[Garrison]

BBC - Press Office - Ten years of Breakfast with Frost

bbc.co.uk/pressoffice is the online BBC Press Office. This contains the latest BBC press releases; current and archived programme information; biographies of BBC staff; key information to answer frequently asked questions

www.bbc.co.uk

Encarta book of quotations : Swainson, Bill : Free Download, Borrow, and Streaming : Internet Archive

Includes indexes

archive.org

Politicians say a great many things in public, in private everyone knew Major was doomed in 1997. His party was succumbing to faction fighting over Europe Black Wednesday had trashed their reputation for economic competence and there had been one sleaze scandal after another.

As for Bush Snr. he was riding high off the Gulf War, and then the economy tanked and his approval ratings collapsed. Other problem is that after three Republican terms people probably wanted a change.