A Brighter August 1940 - BoB What ifs

In Autumn 1940, the Douhet mindset may be showing its flaws, but the recent experience of Guernica and of the effectivness of German bombing of civilian and military targets shows that intensive bombing is very effective when the bomber does get through.
In that context, launching an air attack on Britain with the goal of breaking their spirit enough to keep them out of the war isn't so daft. The pressure would be increased by threat of seaborne assault (if credible).[1]
It's just as well that Britain had the will, organisational skill and technology to mount an effective defence.

Edit. Added the bit on the threat of seaborne invasion which I cut and forgot to paste
[1] Did I really just argue in favour of OTL German strategy?
 
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I guess it’s time to address a few of the perpetual myths that seem to crop up regarding the BoB.

Sorry if this is a bit ‘wordy’ I’ve tried to cover as much as possible. I’ve tried to respond to specific comments and those are in bold/Italic text. I’m pretty sure there are going to be bits that might need further explanation or exploration, please feel free to comment or question.

Attrition and higher sortie rates @sonofpegasus @Cryhavoc101 @David Flin

Of the 2 its my opinion that Luftwaffe had the poorer staying power - lacking the reserves, system of aircrew replacement, aircraft production and very importantly for the decision making process the ability to source (there had been no early war investment in dedicated air recce), correctly understand and then disseminate useful actionable intelligence.


We’ll first of all look at sortie rates, all information relates to 08/08/1940 to 06/09/1940. During the period in question Fighter Command conducted 643 sorties per day, roughly 0.68 sorties per pilot per day. This drops to 483 sorties per day between 19/08/1940 to 23/08/1940, 0.51sorties per pilot per day. Certainly, on the British side the increase to fatigue from flying would be insignificant. Now obviously the pressures would be greater for squadrons in 11 Group, the effective front line, but even there not every sortie resulted in combat and it is the reason that squadrons were rotated regularly.

No 1 Squadron was in 11 Group throughout the period in question so if you follow the sortie rate for a single pilot it might give an indication of flying hours/patterns etc.
F/Lt Brown was involved in 2.26 sorties per day, with two combats and an aircraft loss.

Over the thirty-day period Brown was operational for 19 days (11 days recovering from injuries received on 15th after crash) and took part in 43 sorties, 26 of which were active patrols/interceptions – the remaining sorties were flights to and from forward base, practice and local flights. The average sortie length was 36 minutes. So… even assuming on the 8 days of poor weather that no flying was done at all a pilot such as Brown would only be doing an extra 10-11 hours flying and would possibly be involved in one more combat as a result. From what I can tell the fatigue came from the heightened tension of being at constant readiness, the expected danger of bombings and some part from sleep deprivation due to night time air raid sirens. Many a pilot said the only relief they got was when they were in the air.

To see how hard pushed the Luftwaffe was is not quite so easy as I have no individual unit records etc. to go on. From the Luftwaffe Crash Archive series of books, it’s possible to get some indication of the workload imposed on Bf109 pilots from British intelligence reports. The following is a list of accounts from German fighter pilots who make mention of the number of sorties they have undertaken between 8th August and 9th September:

• 14th August – Uffz Gerhart Kemen states that he had a 2.25 sortie rate per day

• 24th August – Ofw Fritz Beeck said he occasionally flew up to 4 sorties a day with rest days

• 28th August – Ofw Artur Dau claimed to have flown 140 sorties in his career. However he had been flying operationally since at least 17th May 1940 as this was the date of his first combat claim.

• 2nd September – Uffz Emil von Stein was shot down on his second war flight since joining his unit in mid-June.

• 5th September – Lt Heinz Schnabel said he had made 15 War Flights since returning to his unit after being injured in mid-May. He was certainly flying throughout August if not sooner.

• 5th September – Uffz Fritz Hotzelmann was assigned a War Flight every other day.

• 6th September – Fw Erich Bramm flew up to 2 sorties a day with at least two days off a week.

• 6th September – Fw Werner Gottschalk had flown 4 War Flights since early August.

• 7th September – Uffz Heinz Zurhage flew 1 sortie a day, occasionally two with 2 days off a week.

• 9th September – Fw August-Willhelm Muller recorded 22 War Flights since (probably) early July.

• 9th September – Uffz Georg Rauwolf flew 18 War Flights since June.

While this is only a small sample of pilots it shows great similarities to their British counterparts, there were certain units/pilots that flew multiple sorties and there were many others who flew occasional sorties. A good guesstimate based on the limited information available would suggest that German pilots were undertaking 1 sortie per day on average but in most cases had the advantage of regular rest days.

If you look at Bf109 activity over Britain it tells a slightly different story, on the quietest days there were fewer than 100 fighter sorties over Britain (War Flights), regularly there were 300-400 and occasionally 600-700. So on average it’s safe to assume that on average a pilot conducted 1 War Flight every couple of days. The other sorties were, in all likelihood, movements to forward base, defence patrols, local flights and training/test flights.

Bomber crews flew even fewer sorties in general, on a typical day the Luftwaffe was only using about a quarter of the available bomber force.

I think what I’m trying to say is that increasing the flying activity over eight of the 29 days in question is not going to contribute considerable to an increase in fatigue. The heightened alert status and lack of rest periods are more likely to increase fatigue but, as Fighter Command stayed on a medium alert even on the worst weather days, and, as the Luftwaffe included regular rest days in their flying routine I doubt that even this will make much of a difference.

Britain is outproducing Germany in airframes.

Yes, Britain is out producing Germany and is also repairing more aircraft but on the flip side more Hurricanes/Spitfires are being lost and damaged than the Bf109. A quick comparison of losses and available replacements over the 5 days before and after 19th – 23rd August (plus the limited losses from 19th-23rd) against the same period but with increased activity shows that Fighter Command will lose an extra 28% of monthly production compared with an increase of 27% for the Bf109. The Bf110 has not been included in the calculations as it was the only type on the Luftwaffe books where production matched and/or exceeded losses throughout the battle.

This does not mean that there will be a huge reduction in either British or Luftwaffe sorties immediately however. Fighter Command had a good reserve of aircraft never dropping below 100 in the storage units and the Luftwaffe rarely used more than half of their Bf109s at any one time with a maximum push of over 600 on 7th September.
The proposed increase in activity (using rudimentary calculations) would see Fighter Command running out of reserves of aircraft by the end of August

British pilots that survive being shot down get to return to the fray.

German aircrew that survive being shot down get to become POW.

This is a given, not only a loss of pilots but aircraft too as there would be a whole pile of aircraft that might have been repairable that are no longer available for recovery. Fighter Command was running at 55% lost and 45% Cat 2 repairable (extensive repairs required). In comparison the Bf109 was running at 73% and 27% respectively. During the period 8th August to 6th September this difference would equate to roughly 70 extra Bf109s repairable rather than lost.

During the same period the Luftwaffe lost 75 pilots taken as POWs. After loss or damage 46% of British pilots were unhurt and available to fly immediately compared to 38% of the Bf109 pilots. The British wounded/injury rate was 26% with half of those minor, so available to fly again in a day or two at most, compared with just 12% of the Bf109 pilots. 59% of Fighter Command’s pilots were available to fly again either immediately or within a day or two whereas only 44% of Bf109 pilots were in the same position. Using these figures it would seem that fighting over Britain cost the Luftwaffe roughly 55 Bf109 pilots due to being taken as POWs, the remaining 20 were beyond flying due to injury/wounds.

RAF Repairs @sonofpegasus

A quick passage from ‘Case Studies in the Achievement of Air Superiority’ Edited by Benjamin Franklin Cooling with the Battle of Britain study authored by Robin Higham.

“During this period, the production of new Hurricanes and Spitfires remained fairly constant: 394 in July, 463 in August, and 373 in September. But the number of repaired Hurricanes and Spitfires being returned to service climbed from 85 in June to 121 in July, 146 in August, and 166 in September. In October, as the pressure of intense fighting dropped off and the civilian repair organization of the Ministry of Aircraft Production (MAP) under Beaverbrook’s direction really got underway, supplementing the RAF repair system, the number of repaired and returned machines rose to 255.”

This shows that whilst the maintenance units were doing an excellent job they were still a long way from working at full tilt during August 1940. With production of Hurricanes/Spitfires at 463 and repairs at 146, a loss of 442 with 356 Cat 2 damaged (Figures from Battle of Britain Then and Now) that shows a wastage of 189 fighters. An additional 8 days of fighting could, as a minimum, add another 200 lost aircraft.

At the end of the day the battle was a fanatical bunch verses enthusiastic amateurs with the Luftwaffe being the latter @Cryhavoc101

In the opinion of one author in one book, a view that is not expressed by anyone else in any other publication I have read.

Note that the accident rate will increase more than the sortie rate does, due to the increase in air-and maintenance-crew fatigue meaning more errors per air-hour than OTL. @GarethC

Personally, I’m not sure that this follows, the ground crews would not increase their work rate, they conducted routine maintenance and servicing in the main. If an aircraft was damaged it would either be left on site and repaired when crews were available or shipped off to be repaired off site. Poor weather did not prevent the ground mechanics from continuing with their tasks so I just don’t see this being an issue. If anything, it might just mean one fewer aircraft available per squadron in the latter part of August due to a backlog of flying hour related servicing. Anyone know how many hours were flown between services? I think the only way this would have any affect is if the service periods are less than 100 flying hours. Any thoughts?

To what extent in OTL did relief fighter squadrons come in from other air groups? These should still be available, and there may be greater pressure to bring in the Polish squadrons earlier than OTL. @CaptainCalvert

Squadrons were regularly swapped between groups to offer relief to mauled squadrons and give them time to reequip, rest and train new pilots until Dowding introduced the Stabilisation Scheme on 8th September. Basically, at that time there were too few fresh squadrons to provide full replacement.

The question of pilots

As of the 8th August Fighter Command had 55 Squadrons fit for operations, including 19 Spitfire and 26 Hurricane, and 6 squadrons refitting or under training. As of the 3rd August there were 1434 pilots and final training at OTUs was increased to a month from 2 weeks.

The question of pilots seems to have popped up several times, which is understandable, in particular pilots transferred from other branches.

The FAA loaned Fighter Command 68 pilots in June 1940 but 10 had to be recalled as fighting in the Med increased the FAAs workload and the First Lord said that no more detachments were possible.

From Bomber Command 20 Volunteers were called for from the four Battle squadrons, roughly 20-25% of the available pilots. Bomber Command were not willing to provide more because firstly a large number of pilots destined for both Bomber and Coastal Commands had already been diverted to Fighter Command prior to OTU stage and secondly the remaining Battle pilots were destined for conversion to other bomber types imminently.

From Army Cooperation squadrons there was a transfer of 33 Lysander pilots to Fighter Command.

During the heaviest fighting through August and the first week of September Fighter Command reported a pilot wastage of 120 pilots a week. Despite shortening the OTU training period to just two weeks by mid-August AND the transfer of pilots from other areas only 260 replacement pilots were available throughout August. By the end of the month there were 1023 Hurricane and Spitfire pilots but that included those in hospital, those recuperating, those on leave and 160 pilots who were classed as non-operational, mainly because they had passed out of training too quickly and were not classed as good enough to fly in combat. In essence there were only 850 operational pilots on the 1st September, or about 16 operational pilots per squadron. 11 Group Squadrons tried to maintain an establishment of 19 pilots but this was not always possible especially in squadrons freshly arrived in in the front line as they suffered disproportionate losses in the first few days of being in 11 Group. For example, the following numbers are taken from ‘The Battle of Britain (RAF Official Histories)’; T.C.G. James: -

616 Squadron was posted to 11 Group on 25th August and lost 5 Pilots and 12 Aircraft by 2nd September

603 Squadron lost 7 Pilots and 16 Aircraft from 28th August to 6th September.

253 Squadron lost 9 Pilots and 13 Aircraft between 30th August and 6th September.

AVM Park had asked on numerous occasions, from early on in the battle, for a systemic change that would see experienced pilots moved from squadrons in quieter groups as replacements for lost 11 Group Pilots but Dowding persisted in wholesale squadron replacement. By early September it became obvious a change was needed, between 24th August and 6th September there had been 21 squadron movements and 2 new squadrons formed as part of 11 Group. It was putting an unnecessary strain on organisation, logistics and transport. By 6th September all of the Hurricane/Spitfire squadrons that could be used were either stationed or had been stationed in 11 Group or neighbouring Sectors.

On 8th September the Stabilisation Scheme was enacted by Dowding whereby squadrons were Classified as A, B or C squadrons. The 28 ‘A’ squadrons were those in 11 Group plus those at Duxford and Middle Wallop Sectors that were to be kept up to strength by direct pilot replacement. There were 5 ‘B’ Squadrons who were to be kept up to strength and used as wholesale replacements should an ‘A’ squadron have a particularly bad day or two and needed immediate withdrawal. The remaining ‘C’ squadrons were posted to the more remote Sectors and were used to train pilots fresh from the OTUs, and retained a small handful of experienced pilots, usually just 5 or 6 per squadron. By this time there were effectively 750 operational pilots and a couple of hundred pilots in squadron training.
 
Ian Hathaway, very good post thank you, it confirms every thing that I have been trying to say about the battle. Without the slight respite 'Bad weather Days' in August I think it is a reasonable supposition in an ATL that Dowding might be forced to instigate the stabilisation scheme earlier than the OTL date of 8th September.
What knock on effect this would have depends somewhat to how the Luftwaffe themselves cope with the continued higher operational tempo sustained through better weather in August. The supposition that this would have little effect is where I think our thinking might diverge a bit.
 
Good post Ian

At work on My phone so this will be brief

A couple of points

Firstly there is a mountain of data on fighter command

Their seems to be far less with regards to the Luftwaffe which you have alluded to.

So while we can make a fairly good assessment of how the RAF was doing not so easy with regards to the Luftwaffe.

Regarding airframe availability

A Spitfire needed a full check every 20 or so flying hours assuming no malfunctions or damage.

Every 10th check (200 hours) it would enjoy a complete strip down and very likely replaced with a fresh airframe with the older airframe placed in a reserve role (training or secondary theatre / quieter group)

I would imagine the 109 was very similar

So it’s not just pilot fatigue and aircraft losses it’s the extra stress on the ‘estate’ of fighters and bombers with more aircraft becoming life expired earlier and needing to be replaced earlier.

They could continue to fly them (it being wartime and all) but the incidences of malfunctioning aircraft would increase exponentially.

And given the German planes where flying longer missions then it’s very likely that this issue would impact them more than the RAF.

I don’t really disagree with what you wrote but if you are suggesting that the Luftwaffe would not also suffer correspondingly higher losses and increased fatigue if those ops continued on those days of bad weather .
 
I don’t really disagree with what you wrote but if you are suggesting that the Luftwaffe would not also suffer correspondingly higher losses and increased fatigue if those ops continued on those days of bad weather .
Absolutely not, but it's incredibly difficult to quantify. Bomber sorties are longer by their very nature but in the main the bomber force was so large in comparison to the daily usage that it might only mean an extra 10 hours per airframe. The Luftwaffe also utilised their pilots differently, they did have a habit of flicking between units. The Crash Archive books show that a lot of the time an airframe can be attributed to one unit but the pilots papers indicate a different unit. But yes it's annoying that, despite having numerace books on the Luftwaffe they can only give the reader a small glimce of what is available for Fighter Command.
 
Google: bootstrapBoB AAMS.docx and that should find it.

Bootstrapping the Battle of Britain - University of York


Sample data in the back:
Day
Date
British Airframe Losses
German Airframe Losses
British Pilots Lost
British Pilots Wounded
British Pilots Slightly Wounded
Phase
Primary Target
1​
10/07/1940​
2​
11​
2​
0​
0​
1​
C​
2​
11/07/1940​
6​
17​
3​
1​
0​
1​
C​
3​
12/07/1940​
5​
9​
4​
0​
1​
1​
C​
4​
13/07/1940​
6​
6​
5​
0​
1​
1​
C​
5​
14/07/1940​
1​
3​
1​
0​
0​
1​
C​
6​
15/07/1940​
2​
5​
0​
1​
0​
1​
C​
7​
16/07/1940​
1​
4​
1​
0​
0​
1​
C​
8​
17/07/1940​
1​
4​
1​
1​
0​
1​
C​
9​
18/07/1940​
5​
6​
4​
0​
0​
1​
C​
10​
19/07/1940​
10​
5​
4​
4​
0​
1​
C​
11​
20/07/1940​
9​
12​
6​
0​
2​
1​
C​
12​
21/07/1940​
2​
12​
1​
0​
0​
1​
C​
13​
22/07/1940​
2​
4​
1​
0​
0​
1​
C​
14​
23/07/1940​
2​
5​
0​
1​
0​
1​
C​
15​
24/07/1940​
5​
15​
3​
0​
1​
1​
C​
16​
25/07/1940​
9​
19​
7​
2​
2​
1​
C​
17​
26/07/1940​
1​
5​
1​
0​
0​
1​
C​
18​
27/07/1940​
2​
5​
2​
0​
0​
1​
C​
19​
28/07/1940​
6​
11​
1​
4​
1​
1​
C​
20​
29/07/1940​
6​
11​
3​
1​
0​
1​
C​
I ass use German airframe losses equates to German aircrew killed or captured.
 
I ass use German airframe losses equates to German aircrew killed or captured.
Yes and no, typically British losses involved just the pilot, occasionally other crew so it would be easier to equate killed/missing/injured pilots to airframe losses. But German crew losses were not so easy to determine from airframe losses without knowing what types of aircraft they relate to after all there were single seat fighters and aircraft with 2, 3, 4 and 5 crew involved. On top of that occasionally aircraft that returned damaged to Luftwaffe bases had one or more crew members injured or dead but the pilot unharmed.
 
Ian Hathaway, very good post thank you, it confirms every thing that I have been trying to say about the battle. Without the slight respite 'Bad weather Days' in August I think it is a reasonable supposition in an ATL that Dowding might be forced to instigate the stabilisation scheme earlier than the OTL date of 8th September.
What knock on effect this would have depends somewhat to how the Luftwaffe themselves cope with the continued higher operational tempo sustained through better weather in August. The supposition that this would have little effect is where I think our thinking might diverge a bit.
I'm open to discussion and knowledge sharing if you have more info or thoughts, after all that's why I started this thread. You never know we might not actually be that far apart in our conclusions.
 
If you look at Bf109 activity over Britain it tells a slightly different story, on the quietest days there were fewer than 100 fighter sorties over Britain (War Flights), regularly there were 300-400 and occasionally 600-700. So on average it’s safe to assume that on average a pilot conducted 1 War Flight every couple of days. The other sorties were, in all likelihood, movements to forward base, defence patrols, local flights and training/test flights.

Interesting - WI they sortie was much higher. The RAF didn't take the bait with purely '109' fighter sweeps, WI they brought in Fighter-bombers earlier to force FC to combat formations of '109s'?

If the RAF was that desperate for pilots, why didn't they disband the Defiant squadrons, use the pilots for single-seater fighters, and ship the gunners off the Bomber Command?
Granted during the Blitz the Defiants helped fill a gap, but not during the BoB - if memory serves they could've helped when the Lw raided the North, but were kept out of the way.
 
I apologise for the massive delay in this reply, it's taken long time to analyse the data involved. I also apologise for this lengthy post, I quite often use ten words where one would do, but that's just me.

After analysis of the gathered data the following was true of the aircraft numbers in Fighter Command:
  • On 8th August 1940 Fighter Command had 358 Spitfires and 515 Hurricanes in total serving with 19 Spitfire and 26 Hurricane squadrons.
  • Of those there were 257 Spitfires and 370 Hurricanes serviceable meaning there were approximately 13.5 Spitfires and 14 Hurricanes per squadron.
  • There were 126 Spitfires and 144 Hurricanes ready for immediate issue with the storage units by 11th August.
  • Through August there were 463 Spitfires/Hurricanes produced and 146 repaired. In September these figures were 373 produced and 166 repaired.
  • Not all aircraft were issued to Fighter Command, 3% of new production went to OTUs, photo reconnaissance units, the Middle East etc. and 13% of repaired aircraft were not issued to the squadrons but were sent to the OTUs and other secondary roles.
  • By the 1st September the number of available Spitfires had dropped slightly to 356 with 208 serviceable, an average of 11 aircraft per squadron. The number of available Hurricanes had dropped to 503 despite an increase of operational squadrons from 26 to 29. The number of serviceable Hurricanes had increased meaning they were still able to maintain a strength of 14 aircraft per squadron on average.
  • By the 1st September there were 58 Spitfires and 107 Hurricanes sitting with the storage units, a decrease of 105 of both types combined.
  • On the morning of 8th September there were 345 Spitfires and 473 Hurricanes available with 197 serviceable Spitfires and 381 serviceable Hurricanes giving and average per squadron of 10 and 13 respectively. The storage units were holding 126 of both types combined.
In summary Fighter Command started the period between 8th August to 15th September 1940 with 45 single seat, single engine, monoplane squadrons and ended it with 48 squadrons.

On 8th August there were 873 aircraft in these squadrons with 627 serviceable (72% serviceable rate) with an average of just under 14 serviceable aircraft per squadron. By 15th September there were 856 aircraft in the 48 squadrons with just 581 serviceable (68% serviceable rate) with an average of 12 aircraft per squadron.

On the week ending on 11th August there were 270 fighters in storage and this had reduced to 95 by 15th September.

In comparison, if the weather had been better and Eagle Day had been on 10th August as planned and if there had not been a break in operations between 19th and 24th August, there would probably have been 787 aircraft in 48 squadrons with 534 serviceable (68% serviceable rate) with an average of 11 aircraft per squadron. The storage units would have been depleted by the end of August contributing to the decline in the numbers of aircraft; however, after 15th September, the number of losses would not exceed the numbers of aircraft passing through the storage units so a rebuild would always be on the cards.

As far as aircraft numbers are concerned, despite an increase in expected losses due to fine weather of an extra 218 aircraft lost or damaged, and the likelihood of reserves of ready replacements being depleted by the end of August, it would not have been enough to seriously affect Fighter Commands ability to put up a defence up to 15th September.

So that’s the easy bit over with.

The pilot situation, in particular squadron strengths and relative experience, is far more complex. To analyse this aspect of the battle the simplest thing to do is to take each squadron and study the service records of each pilot that served in that squadron during the period from 8th August to 15th September. By looking at the length of operational service for each pilot, it is fairly simple to create a system where each squadron can be given a relative experience/effective strength value on a scale of 1-10. A squadron full of pre-war pilots would have a rating of 10… a squadron that had been badly mauled and only had a half dozen experienced pilots with the rest being fresh out of the OTUs would have a rating of 3.1 (both values are based on a squadron strength of 22 pilots). However, in reality, each squadron had a core of pilots it used on a daily basis, especially in 11 Group squadrons. To reflect that I’ve also introduced a second rating for each squadron that looks purely at the top 16 pilots in each squadron. In the examples used above this would produce a rating of 10 for the experienced squadron (obviously) and a rating of 4.1 for the mauled squadron. A third rating can also be used for the optimum squadron strength, i.e. the top twelve pilots which would give ratings of 10 and 5.3.

It should be noted that in the 16 and 12 pilot ratings where there are fewer than the chosen number of pilots in each rating it will still use an average of the top 16 or twelve pilots. So if a highly experienced squadron had 14 pilots there would be two zero values entered into the equation, therefore, in the case of the highly experienced squadron with only 14 pilots the core rating would be reduced from 10 to 8.7 to reflect to shortage of pilots.

I have chosen three sample squadron initially that I think are representative of relative strength and experience in action during the period. These are:

19 Squadron – Stationed in the Duxford sector throughout and, as such, took part in the fighting but not used extensively.

610 Squadron – Stationed at Biggin Hill on the 8th August (having been in 11 Group since the start of the Battle of Britain), but moved north to 13 Group on the morning of 31st August after steady losses had reduced the squadrons strength and core experience. After the introduction of Dowding’s Stabilisation Scheme on 7th/8th September 610 Squadron became a C squadron and as such was reduced to the role of trained inexperienced pilots fresh from the OTUs before passing them on to frontline squadrons that needed reinforcements.

72 Squadron – Stationed in 13 Group until the morning of 31st August when the squadron was sent to 11 Group as a replacement for 610 Squadron. 72 Squadron remained with 11 Group throughout the rest of the Battle of Briton.

The comparative strengths and core ratings (16 pilots) for the three squadrons at various dates are as follows:

  • Morning of 8th August – 19 Sqn 19/6.2, 610 Sqn 21/5.3, 72 Sqn 25/8.5
  • Morning of 24th August – 19 Sqn 23/7.5, 610 Sqn 23/4.6, 72 Sqn 25/8.9
  • Morning of 1st September – 19 Sqn 22/6.8, 610 Sqn 15/3.8, 72 Sqn 23/8.8
  • Morning of 7th September – 19 Sqn 21/6.5, 610 Sqn 24/3.9, 72 Sqn 16/6.6
  • Morning of 8th September – 19 Sqn 21/6.5, 610 Sqn 24/4.0, 72 Sqn 15/6.0
  • Morning of 15th September – 19 Sqn 22/6.7, 610 Sqn 25/4.4, 72 Sqn 19/6.2
Looking closer at 610 Squadron gives an indication of why squadrons were rotated out of 11 Group. Having suffered seven pilot losses over Dunkirk and with the losses suffered up to 8th August there were five ‘raw’ pilots (fresh out of the OTUs) that had joined the squadron just prior to the Battle of Britain and four that had joined in late July, these were joined by a further eight pilots on 12th August. Of those that joined in late July and early August seven of them were killed or injured by the time they were moved to 13 Group, along with seven of the more experienced pilots. All of this added up to a squadron that on the 8th August had an optimum rating (best 12 pilots) of 6.5 which fell to just 4.8 by the end of the month. After the Stabilisation Scheme was introduced 610 Squadron became a Cat C squadron, or training squadron with a further twelve ‘raw’ pilots added during early September. Pilot numbers started at 21 on 8th August, dropped to 15 by the end of the month (despite an additional eight pilots added to the roster in that period), but by 10th September this number had risen to 27. However, the squadron rating (for all pilots) started at 4.3 on the 8th, dropped to 4.0 by the 31st and dropped even lower to 3.0 on 10th September.

By 8th August 610 Squadron was already a partially weakened, slightly diluted squadron and by the 30th August, with only 15 pilots it was ready to be moved and swapped for a fresher squadron.

The next question has to be what might have happened to 610 Squadrons replacements, 72 Squadron, if flying conditions had been better in August (Eagle Day on 10th August rather than 13th and no break from 19th-24th August).

OTL, 72 Squadron was reasonably strong when it arrived in 11 Group on 31st August, with far fewer inexperienced pilots than 610 Squadron. By 7th September the squadron had lost 10 pilots either killed, missing or wounded. By the morning of 8th September 72 Squadron had just 15 pilots, however, they still had a strong core of experienced pilots giving a rating of 6.0. With a decrease in Luftwaffe activity after 7th September 72 Squadron was able to build its strength and, due to the Stabilisation Scheme, none of the new pilots added were ‘raw’ having spent some time in C Cat squadrons after leaving the OTUs. By the morning of the 15th September the squadron had 19 Pilots with a core rating of 6.2.

With an additional eight days of more intense fighting, it is highly likely that 610 Squadron and 72 Squadron would be swapped on 23rd August rather than 31st, 610 having reached 15 pilots with a core rating of 3.8 on 22nd August. As noted above, 72 Squadron lost 10 pilots in its first 8 days serving with 11 Group, an average of more than one pilot a day. If this trend in losses had continued during the additional eight days of heavier fighting 72 Squadron would have a strength of 15 pilots by 31st August and would have been reduced to a core rating of 3.8 by the morning of 7th September (I have chosen these two figures because they were the figures that triggered 610 Squadrons withdrawal). It therefore seems safe to assume that at some time between those dates that 72 Squadron would have to be replaced in frontline service. I would suggest that this might occur at some stage around 2nd/3rd September when the strength of the squadron may have shrunk to just twelve or thirteen pilots with a core rating at about 5.0.
 
Impressive analysis work Ian. Have you considered writing a paper on the subject?
Yes... or something like... but there's a whole heap more to do before I, or anyone else, can come to any realistic conclusions. The hardest part will be trying to get into the minds of the likes of Dowding and Park to determine what solutions and decisions they might make to solve the problems they face.
 
Really informative, Ian, thank you.
As to getting into the minds of Dowding and Park to see what they might and could have done if the intensity had continued. I would suggest that an examination of the facts behind the decisions that Dowding made OTL will give huge clues as to what decisions he might have made if the battle had been by a small margin more intensely fought (more Flying Days).
Better weather through August has a little investigated benefit for the RAF in that there are fewer training days lost. This not only effects the flying training schools but also, and perhaps more importantly, the OTU's.
With Dowding's decision to "Go Downhill" this better weather scenario regarding training then also effects the airtime that the Category C squadrons can get.
With this ATL scenario I am of the Opinion that both Park and Dowding would have had less Tolerence of Le Mallory and his stooge Bader mucking about with the big wing.
ITTL I could see Duxford, it's satellite fields and the squadrons based there being transferred to 11 group as had been proposed to parks by Dowding in1939.
 
I guess this leaves a lot of questions open...

For instance, how influential could the pilot situation have become, after all there was no ready reserve in the same way that there was available for aircraft?

Or

Under Dowding's Stabilisation Scheme there were only four full squadrons made available to swap/replace with weakened front line squadrons. Would this have been enough?

Or

What affect did the the break in activity between 19th and 24th of August have on Fighter Commands ability to rebuild, reinforce and repair both the squadrons and infrastructure?

And I'm sure there are many, many more (suggestions would be nice please).

Whilst I've chosen three squadrons to study initially that, on paper, look like representative squadrons, I will only be able to answer the majority of questions once I've analysed all squadrons. And, resource wise, I have all kinds of data gathered over ten plus years but I'm still missing one really desirable, some might say key, data set that would make everything more accurate. I have all details of pilots, I have a full list of Spitfires and there service histories, I have a complete set of operational records for each squadron... but I'm missing the same level of detail for the Hurricanes so it unfortunately means that I'm left with a whole lot of assumptions and calculated guesses when it comes to the squadrons that operated the Hurricane. At the moment I'm having to rely on the squadron records to determine which aircraft flew with what squadron and when, mixed with calculations based on the trends for the Spitfire squadrons. I'd dearly love to get hold of the maintenance cards, or similar data for the Hurricanes but always seem to hit a brick wall, if anyone has any suggestions where I might be able to get hold of that info it would be much appreciated.
 
Will more good flying days increase the number of pilots completing training and joining operational squadrons? Or was that schedule based on elapsed time not hours flown?
[snip quite a bit]:
  • On 8th August 1940 ...there were 257 Spitfires and 370 Hurricanes serviceable...
  • By the 1st September the number of available Spitfires had dropped slightly to 356 with 208 serviceable... The number of available Hurricanes had dropped to 503 despite an increase of operational squadrons from 26 to 29. The number of serviceable Hurricanes had increased meaning they were still able to maintain a strength of 14 aircraft per squadron on average.
  • On the morning of 8th September there were 345 Spitfires and 473 Hurricanes available with 197 serviceable Spitfires and 381 serviceable Hurricanes giving and average per squadron of 10 and 13 respectively. The storage units were holding 126 of both types combined.
Over August, Spitfire availability declines by about 20% while Hurricane availability increases by about 3%.
Is that due to higher Spitfire loss rates, higher Hurricane production, or higher Hurricane repair rates? Do you have any particular insight as to why the disparity?
 
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Without checking, I suspect that due to its construction the Hurricane was much easier for the civilian repair service to restore to fighting condition. Spitfires that were damaged and written off due to their monocoque construction being compromised where Hurricanes could have replacement sections grafted in and fly again.
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For instance this Hurricane P3320 was returned to service.

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This Spitfire holds the record for the shortest service life, 2 hours after delivery to 602 Squadron and 25 miutes of air time it broke its back on landing due to cannon fire damage and was scrapped/salavaged for spares.
 
Will more good flying days increase the number of pilots completing training and joining operational squadrons? Or was that schedule based on elapsed time not hours flown?

Over August, Spitfire availability declines by about 20% while Hurricane availability increases by about 3%.
Is that due to higher Spitfire loss rates, higher Hurricane production, or higher Hurricane repair rates? Do you have any particular insight as to why the disparity?
For the pilots I don't think training time would be affected, they would still be able to practice takeoff, flying and landing in most weather conditions. However, when I get a clearer picture of all pilots I can look at how long each course with the OTUs was and see if there is an effect. I will add that to my list of questions that need answers thank you. 😊

Do you mean serviceable aircraft as available Hurricanes actually drops slightly? If so it's probably nothing more than the fact that there was a break in combat that meant more servicing could be done combined with the introduction of three new squadrons whose aircraft would have fewer flying hours and little to no combat related damage.
 
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