A Bridge to the 21st Century
- Thread starter SLCer
- Start date
oh god bringing karl rove onto a campaign is never a good idea that guy just brings politics to a whole new level of low. it does seem opposition to the Afghan war is a lot stronger in this timeline probably because the terrorist attacks ITTL were so so much smaller, hopefully the war can end so much shorter than in OTL. im very excited for the rest of the primaries and the election!
Thanks, guys! I'm having fun writing it and I guess that's all that matters.
I'm excited to see where this goes. I have a basic outline in my head, but have readjusted where I've taken things because I don't want it necessarily to be a utopian, everything is great type of society.
So, lots of adventures ahead.
I'm excited to see where this goes. I have a basic outline in my head, but have readjusted where I've taken things because I don't want it necessarily to be a utopian, everything is great type of society.
So, lots of adventures ahead.
A GROWING SKEPTICISM
The Afghanistan War had waged for nearly two years and though there was initial success in pushing back the Taliban and producing a provisional government, ultimately, the war as a whole had stagnated. Victories were becoming rarer and rarer and though there hadn't been any bloody conflict and high casualty rates, the war seemed to slumber along. With growing unease toward the ultimate goal, Mary Landrieu felt increasingly boxed in by the war policies of her predecessor. This was a war she did not start and though she was going to see it through, for the first time in her presidency, she felt overwhelmed by the conflict's growing unpopularity.
Then, on November 6th, nearly a year out from the 2004 presidential elections, al-Qaeda suicide bombers broke through a security checkpoint and managed to suicide bomb an American base outside Kabul. It was a horrific event that made international headlines for the many killed - as 310 American servicemen lost their lives. It really had been the first massive loss of life in an American conflict since Vietnam and for a nation that still lived in the shadows of that war, that impact certainly carried a heavy amount of weight.
President Landrieu tried to calm an uneasy nation the night of the event, but it was clear the bombings had shifted perception toward the war. Was the loss of life worth the cost - especially if we could never kill the man responsible? This was a question Landrieu grappled with over the final weeks of 2003. She had initially believed the conflict would be short and that they would be able to advance deep into the Afghanistan hinterlands, capture prominent al-Qaeda leaders, including Ayman al-Zawahiri, and then hand over total control over to the newly formed government.
But that seemed like a distant goal as the U.S. closed in on the two-year anniversary of not only the terrorist attacks, but the war itself. Still, she felt obligated to see the war through, even if the end result wasn't clear at this juncture. Just up and abandoning Afghanistan halfway through the conflict could result in an even stronger al-Qaeda and a larger terrorist grip on the region. That was something she didn't want to concede, especially if it led to troubles down the road. She knew they had to break al-Qaeda to the point where their influence was minimal and Afghanistan could truly thrive as a democratic nation.
The White House was faced with a problem, though. Clinton appeared to have committed too few troops to handle the potential ongoing conflict. Because of this, American forces were stretched thin and it led, by mid-2003, to a resurgent Taliban in the Pashtun areas in both Afghanistan and Pakistan. Al-Qaeda also grew its ranks and began a push back offensive that undid much of the progress made in early 2002.
Worse, the Pakistan government was becoming increasingly negative toward the U.S. and their Afghanistan plans. With the war happening in their backyard, and a growing opposition among the citizens, President Pervez Musharraf felt his hands were increasingly tied by the conflict. He supported the conflict, but also knew the disapproval of not just the war, but America on the whole, drove politics back home.
This all led to a growing concern, and skepticism. Americans, who had supported the war efforts by a strong majority, now were only supporting it by a plurality. Landrieu's approval also took a hit because of the deaths, as her approval, for the first time in her presidency, dipped below 50%. It certainly meant the honeymoon was over for her and though she hadn't been the one to start the war, it was now her conflict and how she handled the remaining threat would define her legacy as President of the United States.
For Republicans, this was the first real crack in Landrieu's reelection. They weren't above attacking, either, with both Ron Paul and Fred Thompson hitting her hard on the ongoing struggles in Afghanistan. Thompson used it to define Landrieu's presidency as weak and inexperienced in the face of terror, while Paul suggested it showed America can't 'police the world and expect good results.'
But Landrieu wasn't the only candidate who was hit hard by what was going on in Afghanistan. John McCain, who voted for the war and openly spoke out in favor of it, now had the burdensome task of defending his vote - and both Paul and Thompson certainly forced him to defend it.
McCain struggled explaining his vote and it once again allowed for an opening. Though he continued to criticize Landrieu's handling of the war, the fact he still voted to send troops there was not so easily reasoned. All the concern and questions he was asking now, Thompson said at the third Republican debate, should have been asked prior to the U.S. sending men and women to die. He followed it up by calling it a monumental lack of judgment that should disqualify him from the presidency - just as it should disqualify Mary Landrieu, who sat quietly while Clinton waged his war.
Ironically, that last bit was McCain's only saving grace. This was not, he explained, the war he voted for and had Clinton not died, he believed the outcome would be dramatically different. But Clinton was dead and Landrieu was now the Commander in Chief and her actions, not that of President Clinton, was responsible for the deterioration in Afghanistan. The case laid out by Clinton was a strong one - but that Landrieu had bungled the conflict since she took over the presidency.
Though Landrieu held only 10% approval among Republicans, Clinton, in the wake of his death, was far more popular - even if a majority still disapproved of his presidency. In a CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll done in October, 2003, 35% of Republicans had a favorable view of the Clinton presidency - a 25% increase over Landrieu's current numbers. So, aligning himself with Clinton, while throwing Landrieu under the bus, certainly was not a terribly risky move.
But would it work?
Orville_third
Banned
This is a great TL! I love how Pauls and Kucinich are more prominent from an ideological standpoint- but you're portraying all the rest of the candidates very well!
Oh, will SC try and open all the polling places this time? Could Rove remember how well SC went last time and try to covertly work against it? And if so, could it majorly backfire? (OTL, McCain was endorsed in SC by the Adjutant General- the same one who endorsed Bush in 2000...when McCain said his endorsement was illegal.)
Oh, will SC try and open all the polling places this time? Could Rove remember how well SC went last time and try to covertly work against it? And if so, could it majorly backfire? (OTL, McCain was endorsed in SC by the Adjutant General- the same one who endorsed Bush in 2000...when McCain said his endorsement was illegal.)
With Clinton getting another term, at the very least the economy of the United States will be significantly better than TTL. In Terms of spending, Bush and Clinton where night and day. Bush burned trough money like it was going out of style, Clinton created the largest surplus in US history.
Yes. In this TL, the economy didn't go through as large of a recession because of the deal Clinton and Hastert agreed to in early 2001 - though the economy did fall into a recession. The economy was also aided from not going through the massive 9/11 attacks - from the airline industry on down.
As for a surplus, I mentioned in one of the posts that it had turned into a deficit, though it's not nearly as severe as it would become in the original timeline. With the recession, a tax-cut plan Clinton worked out with Republicans, along with stimulus spending and a war, the deficit is now growing. That'll be an issue in the upcoming campaign.
Also, the lack of Bush could have a very interesting effects on not only politics, but also culture, and even technology case in point:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z-SuYQ5bVKk
From "Who killed the electric car" shows the small tax break for electric cars under Clinton that made the EV1 possible, and compares it to the much larger Bush era tax cut for the heaviest of vehicles, that made the Hummer possible. You might just have unknowingly saved the EV1 and doomed the Hummer much earlier by having Bush lose. In doing so you may have averted, or at least lessened the impact of the late 2000s gas crisis. It's amazing how many butterflies you can find if you just look hard enough.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z-SuYQ5bVKk
From "Who killed the electric car" shows the small tax break for electric cars under Clinton that made the EV1 possible, and compares it to the much larger Bush era tax cut for the heaviest of vehicles, that made the Hummer possible. You might just have unknowingly saved the EV1 and doomed the Hummer much earlier by having Bush lose. In doing so you may have averted, or at least lessened the impact of the late 2000s gas crisis. It's amazing how many butterflies you can find if you just look hard enough.
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Stolengood
Banned
If I may ask, will you eventually go back and redo the "headlines" section of your TL in order to conform with the newer stuff? I just love your prose style...
Lots of stuff still happens. But a rundown of some minor changes just for fun:
Comedy Central debuts a new TV show in the spring of '01 called Where's My Willy? - a parody of the Clinton administration starring Darrell Hammond of SNL fame. It is cancelled after two seasons when President Clinton dies.
Men in Black II, and slew of other movies, continue to show the standing World Trade Center.
Sofia Vergara hits it big with two successful movies in 2001 - starring along side Arnold Schwarzenegger in the blockbuster Collateral Damage and Tim Allen in the quirky hit Big Trouble. The latter of which also becomes a short-lived sitcom series on FOX.
Bill Maher's Politically Incorrect chugs along, as the outspoken libertarian uses the show to rip apart the war policies of Clinton-Landrieu. Maher's increasingly toxic tone toward Democrats, namely the President, lead to a larger embrace among libertarian viewers - and proves an added benefit to the Ron Paul campaign in the future.
The Lone Gunmen prove to be a hit for FOX after the network renews the series for a second season - and it continues long after the X-Files is cancelled.
Comedy Central debuts a new TV show in the spring of '01 called Where's My Willy? - a parody of the Clinton administration starring Darrell Hammond of SNL fame. It is cancelled after two seasons when President Clinton dies.
Men in Black II, and slew of other movies, continue to show the standing World Trade Center.
Sofia Vergara hits it big with two successful movies in 2001 - starring along side Arnold Schwarzenegger in the blockbuster Collateral Damage and Tim Allen in the quirky hit Big Trouble. The latter of which also becomes a short-lived sitcom series on FOX.
Bill Maher's Politically Incorrect chugs along, as the outspoken libertarian uses the show to rip apart the war policies of Clinton-Landrieu. Maher's increasingly toxic tone toward Democrats, namely the President, lead to a larger embrace among libertarian viewers - and proves an added benefit to the Ron Paul campaign in the future.
The Lone Gunmen prove to be a hit for FOX after the network renews the series for a second season - and it continues long after the X-Files is cancelled.
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If I may ask, will you eventually go back and redo the "headlines" section of your TL in order to conform with the newer stuff? I just love your prose style...
I actually thought about that, but I can't go back and edit posts after a certain point. I'd also like to correct some years I had wrong (I had things listed as 2001 and not 2002 when discussing some of the early Afghanistan developments).
THE LEFT REVOLTS
A popular president has died, his vice-president ascends to the presidency and is now saddled with an unpopular war. Mary Landrieu had read this story before and never expected to be living it. But here she was, at the end of 2003, her popularity struggling to stay above 45%, and a nation becoming increasingly skeptical of its war efforts. Even though she still forcefully articulated a pro-war argument to the American people, she knew, like the war she was defending, her battle was not going all too well - especially among her supposed supporters.
It had been a month since the deadly suicide bombing killed 310 American troops and yet, as Christmas was approaching, she found her situation hardly joyful - a mass protest was scheduled for Washington at the first of the year and her Democratic rival, Dennis Kucinich, was surprisingly moving up in the polls.
The massive loss of life seen in November was followed by a scattering of other suicide bombings the remainder of the month. While none were near the level of the first, it offered up a constant, and bloody, reminder of what was happening in Afghanistan. For much of 2003, when the war effort had stagnated, and gains were becoming increasingly rarer, the White House's safety net remained the limited amount of casualties. But that was changing. Now, it seemed, American deaths were a daily routine, filling the nightly news and offering a dramatic, and stark, contrast to the holiday season.
Men and women were dying in Afghanistan. Little kids were losing a parent right before Christmas - how could this continue? Why is it allowed to continue?
For Landrieu, it was a tragic situation. Her heart literally hurt every time she was informed of a death and yet, staring down the real prospects of a losing war, she couldn't let go. She, like Lyndon Johnson before her, was gripped by this idea of failure and it ultimately clouded her judgment. She knew withdrawing troops at the first sign of weakness would send an awful message to the Taliban and al-Qaeda and yet, the morale at home made it that much more difficult to endure the struggles.
In her Christmas address to the nation, Landrieu spoke of sacrifice and what it meant to fight. It was a very tough and somber speech that won praise across the political spectrum. For many, though, the words felt hollow. What was the sacrifice for and how long would it continue? Unfortunately, it became more and more difficult for Landrieu to defend the war and openly discuss exit strategy. What was the end game for the military?
No one quite knew.
Kucinich, who still trailed considerably in the polls to Landrieu, even though he was making gains, hit the President hard on the stump. His anti-war rhetoric seemed to increase with every death. At one rally, he held up a local paper from an Iowa town who had just buried one of their fallen sons, Lance Cpl. Michael Cassidy, of Davenport, Iowa, who had been killed while conducting combat operations in the Helmand province. The speech was stirring and emotional and no one cheered. They didn't cheer because there was nothing to cheer for - the deaths of these Americans was not a rallying cry but a sad reminder of what was happening a world away. As families prepared for the Christmas holiday, like these Kucinich supporters, many of whom had voted for Bill Clinton and Mary Landrieu in 2000, there was the realization other families were in constant worry about that knock at the door.
June Saunders, of Sioux City, Iowa spoke of this fear. Her son, Pfc. Brock Saunders, had been in Afghanistan fighting around the Paktika province. He was assigned to the 1st Battalion, 28th Infantry Regiment, 4th Infantry Brigade Combat Team, 1st Infantry Division at Ft. Riley, Kansas. As a boy, he always dreamed of serving in the military - just like his father, who fought in the Jungles of Vietnam. When he signed up in 2001 right out of high school, a proud moment for the Saunders family, Brock never expected to be sent to Afghanistan. It was a country he barely knew anything about. But then the terrorist attacks in London and New York shook the country's security to its core. Before he could relax and enjoy his service, President Clinton, his commander-in-chief, was talking of war and, in early 2002, Saunders was informed he was being deployed.
On the night of August 4th, 2003, June had been resting, wary from the night before. She awoke around midnight, sweaty and frightened, and had a horrible feeling that she could not shake. It wasn't an unusual feeling for June, as she had experienced it ever since Brock had left for Afghanistan. But this night did feel unusual and she was desperate for any human contact. Her husband, Matthew Saunders, had died three years prior of a sudden heart attack, leaving the mother of one widowed. She didn't sleep much that night and was paying for it the next day.
Then it happened, she told the captivated crowd at the Kucinich rally. She was relaxed in a chair, beginning to nod off when there was a knock at the door. It only took June a few seconds to realize who it was - two men in uniforms were clearly visible through the front door. She didn't want to answer it. She didn't want to hear. She wanted to turn around and run out the backdoor and never return.
But you can't run from the pain, she said, and she didn't. June, broken inside, opened the door and let the two men in - the two men she knew would tell her something she had dreaded since Brock left and something no mother wants to ever hear.
"The Secretary of the Army has asked me to express his deep regret that your son, Brock, was killed in action in the Paktika province in Afghanistan on August 1st."
June's knees buckled. She couldn't breathe. She didn't want to breathe. The pain ripped through her heart and even though she wasn't alone, June had never felt more alone in her life. She screamed. Yelled for her late husband and then collapsed into the chest of the Chaplain.
The crowd listened, teary-eyed and trembling. It was the most emotional, awful speech many of these men and women had ever heard. June, who amazingly kept her composure, ended her story with just one word.
"Why?"
For Mary Landrieu, and others, that was the hardest question of all to answer.
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Stolengood
Banned
You could always just rewrite them and post them later, on a different thread, once you've finished so as to compile it all "officially".
Also... damn, that update gave me a lump in my throat.
THE STRETCH RUN
2003 was coming to an end and the Republican primary was just starting to heat up. The Iowa Caucus, which was now less than a month away, consumed the media's focus and dominated the election coverage on every major network. While most conceded Mary Landrieu would win over Dennis Kucinich, though there was a growing debate by how much, the Republican caucus was wide open. Polls put all three of the leading candidates - John McCain, Fred Thompson and Ron Paul - in a statistical tie and most political pundits agreed that it was going to come down to turnout.
For the McCain campaign, much of the late fall and early winter was spent gaining back momentum lost from the summer. They had stopped the hemorrhaging of their campaign with blistering attacks on the two other viable candidates and it helped - McCain's numbers, which were in a free fall prior in early October, had stabilized by early December. Unfortunately, the deterioration of Afghanistan hurt the campaign and added another layer of attacks from both Paul and Thompson. The growing anti-war sentiment within the Republican Party certainly blunted McCain's momentum and his numbers stagnated toward the end of the year. At one point, toward the end of November, it actually looked like McCain might cement his spot at the top of the polls. He didn't. Instead, he found himself in a very tight, three-way race and with barely any daylight between each candidate, no one quite knew how the first election would shake out. What they did know is that no candidate could afford a third-place finish, even if the final results were so bunched that no candidate had a true mandate.
As McCain barnstormed through Iowa in the final weeks, he continued to hit both Thompson and Paul rather harshly. This move, which some in the campaign objected to, was questioned by many in the media as potentially being erratic and desperate. That was something the campaign had hoped to avoid down the stretch, but when their numbers didn't increase enough, a select few members of the campaign, pushed by the shadow Rove, knew aggressive might be the only way to go.
The negative assault continued in ad buys, as the campaign filled every aspect of the Iowa airwaves with negative attacks. Hardly any of the advertising in the final weeks of the campaign was spent on showing McCain's strengths - in fact, many barely mentioned McCain at all. He knew his path to victory was not through winning over Republicans but turning Republicans off his opponents. It had worked in October and November, but the move wasn't working nearly as well in December and early January. The constant barrage of negative ads turned voters off and pushed them in the direction of Paul and Thompson, who both made a secret agreement to not go negative down the stretch. At this point, it wasn't about them - they knew they could both survive Iowa if they forced McCain to third place. So, while their attacks were targeted toward McCain, most of their ads were done in a positive tone reinforcing their conservative credentials.
By early January, the polls indicated the Paul-Thompson agreement was working. Even though the numbers were all within the margin of error, Thompson and Paul were #1 and #2 respectively. The margins between Thompson and McCain, though, had exceeded four-points and the campaign was growing increasingly nervous about their position in the final days.
The negative attacks had backfired. The Republicans didn't like watching a senior member of their party tear down other Republicans and while they didn't turn on the campaign in massive amounts, the fact his numbers were now retracting a bit indicated the strategy had been a failure. It was good enough to get them back into the race, to level their standing, but in the end, this close to the caucus, Iowans had tired of the negative attacks - they wanted to know what McCain would do as president for the conservative ideology.
That was a question McCain avoided most the campaign. He spent all spring and summer trying to solidify his conservative standing, but it never felt real to many of these Iowa voters. Sam Petersen, a farmer outside Knoxville, Iowa, had driven up to Des Moines during the summer to attend a McCain town hall. Like McCain, Petersen served in the Navy and fought in Vietnam. He respected the Senator, his career as a military man and human being, but was never convinced McCain shared his core principles as a conservative. He came to the town hall believing McCain might be his guy, but left leaning toward Fred Thompson. When McCain began his attack ads, it drove Petersen fully away and he finally decided to support Thompson outright at his caucus meeting in January.
There were stories like this all around Iowa - conservatives being turned off by McCain's moderate imagine and then his attacks of conservative Republicans. It was a tough spot for the so-called maverick to be in. He didn't expect near the push back, but then again, he also never expected to experience a fight from the right.
If McCain was going to win the Iowa Caucus, it was not necessarily going to be because of his shrewd campaigning - it might be solely because of dumb luck.
On the Democratic side, Landrieu continued pressing forward as if Ohio congressman Dennis Kucinich was not a threat. He still lagged behind significantly in the polls and she knew she had Iowa all but wrapped up. But Kucinich was never in it to win Iowa. He knew the possibility of winning the state was nearly zero. It was about shaking things up and even if he could hold Landrieu to 70% of the vote, which would be unexpected and certainly newsworthy, he could proclaim it a victory.
But the polls indicated it wasn't going to happen. Kucinich still could barely get beyond the 15% his numbers reached a few weeks prior and though he saw increased crowd sizes, it was looking less likely he would make near the statement his campaign hoped to make when they began their campaign in September.
Like McCain, if Kucinich was going to make a statement, if he was going to force Landrieu to answer the hard questions, he would need some luck.
When it was all said and done, one of the two candidates in most need of luck actually received it. The Iowa Caucus results proved important for their campaign and left the political word wondering what next.