Stolengood
Banned
Just as it says on the tin, folks; Cleveland went twice non-consecutively (and thus screwed up the presidential count), but who else couldn't done it from this time period?
I leave it to you.
I leave it to you.
20th and 21st Century Presidents Who Could've Pulled A Cleveland
- Thread starter Stolengood
- Start date
Hmmm...
Teddy almost did in 1912, and might have if he hadn't been so disliked by his own party.
Truman in 1956, if Ike was seen as a mistake/failure.
Ford in 1980, if Reagan didn't run.
I don't know, I think after Teddy's failure it became unpopular to even try.
Teddy almost did in 1912, and might have if he hadn't been so disliked by his own party.
Truman in 1956, if Ike was seen as a mistake/failure.
Ford in 1980, if Reagan didn't run.
I don't know, I think after Teddy's failure it became unpopular to even try.
The obvious answer is Theodore Roosevelt. The only other one with a (faint) chance is Ford in 1980.
Lets say Ford loses the primary to Reagan, who then gets beaten badly by Carter in the general. Then all of the problems Carter had in his term still happen. With Reagan discredited, the Moderates assume the reigns in 1980. The problem is if anyone would still think that Ford is still viable in 1980.
Lets say Ford loses the primary to Reagan, who then gets beaten badly by Carter in the general. Then all of the problems Carter had in his term still happen. With Reagan discredited, the Moderates assume the reigns in 1980. The problem is if anyone would still think that Ford is still viable in 1980.
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Have Theodore Roosevelt sit out 1912 and he might just be nominated four years later. The Republicans came close to winning in 1916, so having Theodore Roosevelt winning the election is by no means impossible. In that case you have another President who served non consecutively, since there would be an eight year period during which Roosevelt was not President.
Another somewhat less plausible situation would be Ford 1980. Have something happen to Ronald Reagan between November 1976 and the period in which candidates began entering the race. His absence leaves the Republicans without a clear leading candidate, and Ford enters the race to fill the void. He wins the nomination based on name recognition, and having won the nomination for a second time, he trounces Carter in a rematch of 1976.
Another somewhat less plausible situation would be Ford 1980. Have something happen to Ronald Reagan between November 1976 and the period in which candidates began entering the race. His absence leaves the Republicans without a clear leading candidate, and Ford enters the race to fill the void. He wins the nomination based on name recognition, and having won the nomination for a second time, he trounces Carter in a rematch of 1976.
I guess we are all in general agreement here, with the exception of my agreeing with the thesis that Theodore Roosevelt 1916 is easier to pull off than Theodore Roosevelt 1912.
More thoughts
Teddy is talked into sitting out 1912. Taft wins (IIRC, Wilson only won because Taft/Teddy split the Republican vote.) In 1916, Taft has served 8 years, Teddy runs and wins.
OR, if Wilson wins in 1912 in spite of Teddy sitting out, the Republicans run Teddy in 1916 and he wins.
Teddy is talked into sitting out 1912. Taft wins (IIRC, Wilson only won because Taft/Teddy split the Republican vote.) In 1916, Taft has served 8 years, Teddy runs and wins.
OR, if Wilson wins in 1912 in spite of Teddy sitting out, the Republicans run Teddy in 1916 and he wins.
Clinton makes more flub ups than he did OTL in his first term and Bush runs again for the Republican nomination when it's clear Clinton is going to do down. Clinton isn't able to beat Bush this time around.
Then, after Bush serves his second term, Clinton makes a comeback in 2000 and wins the election.
1988: Bush/Quayle
1992: Clinton/Gore
1996: Bush/Powell
2000: Clinton/Boxer
Then, after Bush serves his second term, Clinton makes a comeback in 2000 and wins the election.
1988: Bush/Quayle
1992: Clinton/Gore
1996: Bush/Powell
2000: Clinton/Boxer
((Question - Does Ford even count? He never won the Presidency so a 1980 ATL win is his first.))
Could Nixon pull this off somehow? One of the few presidents whom I think could.
It may get messy and involve some sort of 1956 election win, followed by a 1960 defeat followed by a 1968 comeback perhaps?
Could Nixon pull this off somehow? One of the few presidents whom I think could.
It may get messy and involve some sort of 1956 election win, followed by a 1960 defeat followed by a 1968 comeback perhaps?
41 wouldn't run again in 1996, he was tired of politics by then and he was very deeply hurt by his loss.
The most obvious one that hasn't been mentioned is Obama. Had Obama lost in 2012 I would say he could come back in 2016 and win (i know we're not supposed to talk about modern politics, but it was the best example IMO).
Other possibilities (if you change things around) could include Jack Kennedy.
Lee Harvey Oswald never shoots at JFK (no attempt and no, obviously, death). Kennedy decides to drop LBJ from the ticket, feeling he could win the south on his own merits by this point. He loses to Goldwater. The country realizes their mistake after the disaster that is Goldwater and JFK wins in '68.
The most obvious one that hasn't been mentioned is Obama. Had Obama lost in 2012 I would say he could come back in 2016 and win (i know we're not supposed to talk about modern politics, but it was the best example IMO).
Other possibilities (if you change things around) could include Jack Kennedy.
Lee Harvey Oswald never shoots at JFK (no attempt and no, obviously, death). Kennedy decides to drop LBJ from the ticket, feeling he could win the south on his own merits by this point. He loses to Goldwater. The country realizes their mistake after the disaster that is Goldwater and JFK wins in '68.
Though if he had lived longer, TR 1920 would have been a better bet than either - indeed a near-certainty.
I'd agree about 1916 had there been no WW1, but as things were TR would have to drastically tone down his interventionism, and I don't know whether he could. When he got a bee in his bonnet, political sense often went out the window.
Another possibility is Wilson 1920. Had he lost in 1916, America would in all probability still have gone to war under Hughes. Assuming that the wartime sacrifices lead to the same sort of anti-Administration backlash as OTL, President Hughes will almost certainly fail of re-election, and if ex-President Wilson has been living in quiet retirement, he may well avoid his OTL stroke and be healthy enough to seek (and probably get) the 1920 nomination.
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Taft never stood any chance of re-election.
If you look at the Congressional results in 1912, it is clear that where there was no Progressive candidate for the HoR (and often even where there was) Progressive voters preferred to vote Democratic rather than Republican. This would still be true even in 1916, when the GOP had had four years to pull itself together. TR's and Taft's supporters were just too deeply estranged to ever unite around one candidate - much like Douglas and Breckinridge men in 1860.
I've been hung up on Romney for a while now, and I've come to think if Obama had lost, 2016 could have been a possibility, were he to be interested and to take the initiative to do so.
Kennedy was going to defeat Goldwater by a super-majority. He could drop LBJ and still do it. He could get caught with Marilyn in the Lincoln bedroom and still do it. He was an exceedingly popular president. Barry Goldwater was the leader of the Conservatives in an era of Liberal consensus, who only got the nomination because Rockefeller divorced his wife and remarried another woman, the GOP needed a sacrificial lamb for 1964, and Goldwater's supporters were fanatically devoted to getting him the nomination regardless of common sense. He had no shot, nor any shot of even coming close. He was going to be defeated thoroughly.
I need to know where this is coming from, because this seems to be evolving into a thing. Is it Stephen King? Because his book is absolutely wrong on everything.
Kennedy was going to defeat Goldwater by a super-majority. He could drop LBJ and still do it. He could get caught with Marilyn in the Lincoln bedroom and still do it. He was an exceedingly popular president. Barry Goldwater was the leader of the Conservatives in an era of Liberal consensus, who only got the nomination because Rockefeller divorced his wife and remarried another woman, the GOP needed a sacrificial lamb for 1964, and Goldwater's supporters were fanatically devoted to getting him the nomination regardless of common sense. He had no shot, nor any shot of even coming close. He was going to be defeated thoroughly.
I need to know where this is coming from, because this seems to be evolving into a thing. Is it Stephen King? Because his book is absolutely wrong on everything.
I haven't even read the book.
I don't see Kennedy being as popular without the assassination. In retrospect, Kennedy would most likely defeat Goldwater - perhaps Rockefeller gets the nomination and Kennedy loses to him.
I love Kennedy but I think sometimes he's given too much credit and without the assassination I doubt his popularity is as good as it is now.
A few more scenarios...
Teddy could run in 1916 and would almost certainly win, though another option is to have him get into fewer scrapes (better luck in his travels and Quentin doesn't die) and he lives to run again in 1920.
I agree with whoever said Nixon could do it-Ike dies in 1955 and Dick wins the following election-sympathy for Eisenhower. Their's a chance he could lose in 1960 (though as the encumbent, I think him winning is more likely). If he loses a close election though he could come back in 68.
Re Ford-I actually outlined a scenario where Ford beats Carter in 1980. Pod is Sara Jane Moore being somewhat more successful-she doesn't assassinate Ford (obviously) but it's touch and go. In the end Ford makes a full recovery and afterwards their's a public tightenning of security around the president. Squeaky realises that killing Ford is impossible and (successfully as far as she's concerned) targets Reagan instead.
Though their's clearly no 76 Reagan challenge in this TL, Jessie Helms does it instead. Helms doesn't get anything like the support Reagan did and Ford's renomination is never in doubt, but unlike Reagan, Helms is less reluctant to run third party and that's just enough to squander the post-assassination attempt boost Ford would have received in the election, handing it to Carter instead (though ITTL Ford wins the Pov).
Carter's term goes as it did in OTL and Ford wins the 1980 GOP nomination (and election) relatively easily.
I agree re Obama had he lost in 2012, he could wait to 2020 if it came to it. A Clinton comeback in a TL where he loses Gore 2000 style in 1996 would be likely.
Also, I wonder whether Bush would run in 2008, in a TL where Kerry (or someone else) wins in 2004?
I don't think he would personally, though I wouldn't rule it out and I'd imagine the "9 11 president"'s name would be talked up a fair amount by Fox news and co.
Teddy could run in 1916 and would almost certainly win, though another option is to have him get into fewer scrapes (better luck in his travels and Quentin doesn't die) and he lives to run again in 1920.
I agree with whoever said Nixon could do it-Ike dies in 1955 and Dick wins the following election-sympathy for Eisenhower. Their's a chance he could lose in 1960 (though as the encumbent, I think him winning is more likely). If he loses a close election though he could come back in 68.
Re Ford-I actually outlined a scenario where Ford beats Carter in 1980. Pod is Sara Jane Moore being somewhat more successful-she doesn't assassinate Ford (obviously) but it's touch and go. In the end Ford makes a full recovery and afterwards their's a public tightenning of security around the president. Squeaky realises that killing Ford is impossible and (successfully as far as she's concerned) targets Reagan instead.
Though their's clearly no 76 Reagan challenge in this TL, Jessie Helms does it instead. Helms doesn't get anything like the support Reagan did and Ford's renomination is never in doubt, but unlike Reagan, Helms is less reluctant to run third party and that's just enough to squander the post-assassination attempt boost Ford would have received in the election, handing it to Carter instead (though ITTL Ford wins the Pov).
Carter's term goes as it did in OTL and Ford wins the 1980 GOP nomination (and election) relatively easily.
I agree re Obama had he lost in 2012, he could wait to 2020 if it came to it. A Clinton comeback in a TL where he loses Gore 2000 style in 1996 would be likely.
Also, I wonder whether Bush would run in 2008, in a TL where Kerry (or someone else) wins in 2004?
I don't think he would personally, though I wouldn't rule it out and I'd imagine the "9 11 president"'s name would be talked up a fair amount by Fox news and co.
Kennedy's approval rating at the time of his assassination hovered around 60%. He was very, very popular. He was never, ever going to lose nor come close to it. It's like saying Reagan could have lost 1984 in the OTL. It's just not going to happen. The incumbent was miles ahead of the challenger, and was never going to even come close to losing. There should be not even a minority school of thought on this, as there seems to be much to my chagrin; Kennedy was going to win 1964. He was going to do it by about the same as LBJ, maybe a bit less at most. Goldwater had no chance. Rockefeller could have perhaps come closer, but still would have lost in a landslide (and the results of Rocky vs Kennedy would have been similar had it been Rocky vs LBJ in our timeline).
Paul V McNutt
Banned
If TR runs in 1916, his views on the war are a problem. If he does not go to Brazil, the Roosevelt Harding ticket wins in a landslide.If Reagan skips the Iowa debate as he did OTL, then Ford wins the caucuses.For the New Hampshire debate Reagan over prepares line he did for the first 1984 debate.
f Fords wins in New Hsmpshire and states down the road to the nomination.
f Fords wins in New Hsmpshire and states down the road to the nomination.
Of course, looking at the 1976 electoral map, in this scenario wouldn't Helms (paradoxically) be more of a spoiler for Carter than Ford?
Kerry beats Bush in 2004, even though he loses the popular vote. The Republicans still control the House & Senate, Kerry can't get much legislation done and his first term is a lot like Obama's final two years of his first ... except Iraq continues to go badly and Kerry continues to hesitate pulling troops out. There is no surge, which makes this go even more badly and this leads to the Democrats being decimated in the 2006 midterms. Eventually, Kerry's approval sinks to Carter-levels and Howard Dean announces he'll primary him. This creates a huge chasm in the Democratic Party and it only balloons after the financial markets collapse and the economy tanks.
On the Republican side, Bush is prodded enough to run again, since he won the popular vote last time and barely lost Ohio by a couple thousand votes. With personal ratings sky high, mostly because the Iraq fallout and economic downturn is hardly linked to him, he easily beats Kerry in an electoral landslide.
So...
1993-2001: Clinton/Gore
2001-2005: Bush/Cheney
2005-2009: Kerry/Edwards
2009-2013: Bush/Allen
On the Republican side, Bush is prodded enough to run again, since he won the popular vote last time and barely lost Ohio by a couple thousand votes. With personal ratings sky high, mostly because the Iraq fallout and economic downturn is hardly linked to him, he easily beats Kerry in an electoral landslide.
So...
1993-2001: Clinton/Gore
2001-2005: Bush/Cheney
2005-2009: Kerry/Edwards
2009-2013: Bush/Allen
Stolengood
Banned
If the economy didn't go Reagan's way, could Carter have stood a chance?
I'll remind you, too, that Hoover was nearly renominated in 1936...
I'll remind you, too, that Hoover was nearly renominated in 1936...
Paul V McNutt
Banned
1974 - 1977 Gerald Ford
1977 - 1981 Jimmy Carter
1981 - 1985 Gerald Ford
1985 - 1993 Jack Kemp
1993 - 2001. dDick Gephardt
2001 - 2009. Al Gore
2009 - 2013 Mitt Romney
2013 - Barack Obama
1977 - 1981 Jimmy Carter
1981 - 1985 Gerald Ford
1985 - 1993 Jack Kemp
1993 - 2001. dDick Gephardt
2001 - 2009. Al Gore
2009 - 2013 Mitt Romney
2013 - Barack Obama