2010 US Presidential Election

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bbc.co.uk, Friday July 7th

Carter: I would lead Leave Campaign


In an surprise interjection that will heap further pressure on his successor, former Prime Minister Andrew Carter stated that he would “be delighted” to lead the Leave campaign in the event of a second referendum on EU membership.

Carter supported the Leave position during the last referendum but was largely muted in his public stance after agreeing with the cabinet not to actively campaign, but made it clear during an appearance on BBC’s Question Time that should Prime Minister Richard Samuels call a re-run in the wake of the apparent move towards a United States of Europe that he would play a much more active role.

“It would be quite refreshing to be able to approach a campaign outside of office, and it remains one of my great regrets that I didn’t get behind the Leave campaign publicly – I think I could have reassured enough people that the economic catastrophe the Stay In campaign portrayed simply isn’t accurate.”

The comments will be seen as a shot at Prime Minister Samuels who was a leading voice for staying within the European Union and has been reluctant to agree that there was a need for a second poll.
 
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Friday July 7th 2017

Shallick the clear winner from the second GOP debate, Gault & Durham perform well whilst Schofield has a nightmare

Former White House Chief of Staff and Missouri Governor Henry Shallick emerged as the clear winner at the second Republican debate last night held in Charleston, South Carolina.

Shallick who performed badly at the first debate back in April was at the top of his game this time, and his approach surprised many he didn't go after his main rival for the nomination, Vice-President Liz Clark, he said he "liked and respected the Vice-President personally" but "disagreed with her on some issues" and left it at that. Shallick main focus was on the general election and his launched his main attacks on the Democrats, and their front-runner Californian Senator Sam Seaborn "A few years ago me and my wife Laura, had some building work we needed doing on our house in Missouri, we hired a builder to do it, and it was a total disaster, and we had to get another builder into sort out the mess the first builder had left, well Seantor Seaborn and the Democrats are like that first builder, saying "hey we screwed up for twelve years, but can we come back and do the job again, we know what we did wrong last time, honest", well I know the answer to that question "no chance".

It was not a good night for the Vice-President as Kansas Governor Peter Gault attacked her over abortion, planned parenthood and gay marriage, she stumbled on a couple of occasions, and seemed unable to put across her views on abortion clearly. Gault's performance will have delighted the social conservatives in the party, but his focus on these will make it harder for him to win a general election if he did win the nomination. This was a major point well made by Californian Congressman Will Durham who enjoyed a good evening, he has a clear folksy charm about him, but landed some blows on Gault "Governor, we cannot win a presidential election with your platform alone, we have to destroy the lie put out by the Democrats all the time, that we in this party, don't care about ordinary working people, that we only care about is god, guns, abortion, and tax cuts for the rich, we have to show that we can find a third way, that government can work with voluntary organisations, and private business, and if you won the nomination, it would just reinforce that lie". Durham also attacked both the front-runners for "acting like that they had already had the nomination won".

As for the fifth candidate in the race it was a total disaster for Georgia Governor Mike Schofield. He has had a frankly terrible week, his polling numbers in the states in which had been doing well, South Carolina and Florida have fallen through the floor as well as falling off the stage at a campaign event on Monday. He clearly looked in pain when he took to the stage, and then got into an argument with Henry Shallick over the economy in an attempt to build up his economic record as Georgia Governor he managed to mix up the deficit and the national debt. He also said he was the only Governor in the race, forgetting Peter Gault, and that Henry Shallick is also the former Governor of Missouri.
 
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washingtonpost.com, Friday July 7th

GOP Debate: Winners & Losers


Winners:

Henry Shallick:
The former White House Chief of Staff will be delighted with his performance tonight. Came across far better that anyone expected, showed significantly more personality than even his friends thought he could. On a night where his chief rival took heavy fire over her position on abortion, Shallick stayed well clear saying he “respected” the Vice-President’s position, noted his disagreement and let the other three candidates tear strips of the presumptive front runner. On policy Shallick was strong, made an excellent defence of the Walken Presidency and made it absolutely clear that this election had to be fought on the economy. Thanks to the battle being waged between Vice-President Clark and the terrier like Peter Gault, Shallick was able to focus his attention on attacking the Democrats and front runner Sam Seaborn in particular.

Will Durham: Like Shallick will have buoyed supporters with an accomplished performance. Has an easy charm that will have played well to the TV audience and his insistence that the purpose of his party had to be to help everyone and not allow people to think they were only about tax cuts and helping the wealthy. The California Congressman took a number of shots at Shallick and Clark for acting like they had already won.

Peter Gault: A tricky one to score. My guess is that his supporters were pretty thrilled with his attacks on the Vice-President, but beyond his base many will think his badgering of Clark didn’t play well. A debate fought mainly on social issues suited the Kansas Governor down to the ground and meant he could play to social conservatives and clearly stake out his place in the race. There can’t be any doubt that Gault has established himself as the candidate of right and that means he’s here to stay.

Losers:

Liz Clark: The Vice-President didn’t have a great night, mainly due to equivocating on the abortion question straight out of the gate. It’s tough to believe that with so much notice her advisors couldn’t come up with a better position than her attempt to rebrand what pro-life actually means. Her record is inconsistent on and she needs to urgently craft a reason why. The truth is she’s moderately pro-choice – basically where Arnold Vinick was when he won the nomination, so why is she trying to hide from it?

Mike Schofield: It really wasn’t Governor Schofield’s week. Cracks in his campaign, not to mention his ankle made preparations for the debate highly problematic. Tried to take the fight to Shallick over the current administration’s failure to fully eliminate the deficit but stumbled badly in a back and forth when he seemed to mix up the deficit and the national debt allowing the former White House Chief of Staff to come out on top and Schofield to look unfortunately foolish.
 
NHK News

July 7th, 2017

Qian warns, "A Shallick Presidency would be a threat to China"

In Shanghai in front of Chinese billionaires and CEOs, President Qian Min warned that if Henry Shallick is elected president he would enact economic policies that would drive a wedge between Beijing and Washington and side with the revisionists in Tokyo. Shallick is viewed by many in the Chinese politburo as grave threat to Chinese economic prosperity.

"Shallick has praised leaders like Japanese Representative Goro Kurogane, who leads the call to increase Japan's defense budget to 5%. He wants to limit trade with China and he is calling us a grave threat to democracy. Aren't we helping with our troops in Qumar? No, according to Mr. Shallick we are preparing the invasion of the Middle East!" Quan was met by laughter at this.

"We know where Shallick's loyalties lie, in the far right fringe that would do everything to undermine our careful relations with America. I don't want a trade war but picking a fight with us will be loose loose for both sides." Qian told the audience.

"Of course I know this statement will fall on deaf ears in America. Shallick will ignore this comment and move on his campaign but I warn Shallick and his party, we know what your planning and we plan to stop this trade war before you can start it. The only purpose of this trade war would be to weaken the government as we make historic moves to give people more economic freedom and allow people more rights to protest. Shallick and his ilk want our reforms to fail or they think our reforms are just pageantry. These reforms are important to the future of the Chinese Communist state."

Qian's dislike of the presidential candidate are well documented with a recorded argument between the two from when Qian was Vice President and Shallick was a presidential aide.
 
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Saturday July 8th 2017

Seaborn & Thorn both chasing fellow Senator Newell's endorsement

With the Democrats arriving in Boulder, Colorado for the second debate tomorrow evening, eyes are settling on one man who isn't a Presidential candidate this time around, Colorado Senator Ben Newell.

Newell who won the Iowa caucus in 2014 in a shock upset and performed well during that primary campaign, and then despite dropping out of the race before "Super-Dupa Tuesday" he went onto win a Senate seat. Almost four years later, Newell who still has big base of support within the party, has been chased by two of the front-runners for an endorsement, both fellow Senators as well, Seaborn and Thorn.

Sam Seaborn is believed to have had a two hour private meeting with Senator Newell on Thursday evening whilst Newell was at a party fundraiser in Boulder, Friday along with Senator Thorn. Both campaigns believe they can tie up Senator Newell's endorsement and are hopeful they can get an announcement after the debate on Sunday.
 
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nbs.com, Saturday July 8th

DNC Reach "Debate 5" deal; all candidates to appear together


The Democratic National Committee have this morning confirmed they have reached a deal with the candidates excluded from the Colorado debate and that group have agreed to withdraw their legal complaint clearing the way for the event to proceed as planned.

Stefan Collins, the Chairman of the DNC, appeared at his office in Washington to read a brief statement confirming that they had agreed a deal with the remaining five candidates, Congressman Bill Garden of North Carolina, Senator Jeremy Lyons of Wisconsin, Ohio's Haydn Straus, Maine Governor Paris Stray and Congressman Scott Bighorse to allow them to participate in Sunday's debate in Colorado.

The move was seen as the only option left to the DNC after a judge issued an injunction blocking the debate until he could hear the case brought by the five candidates over whether they could be excluded from the main stage of the event.

Following Collins' statement, Congressman Bill Garden, flanked by the other candidates and by Montana Governor Kurt Carner who had vocally supported the group said he was "pleased that the DNC has seen sense" and that he looked forward to showing the Democratic Party the depth it has going into this primary season.
 
nbs.com, Sunday July 9th

Seaborn Takes Heavy Fire As Democrats Scramble For Position


In a heated and, at times, chaotic debate in Bolder, Colorado the candidates for the Democratic nomination for President took aim at front runner Sam Seaborn and landed a number of blows on the California Senator.

The debate started out in a civilised tone with Seaborn welcoming the now infamous “Debate Five” and saying that he was looking forward to as broad discussion of the key issues and finding a way to end the “policies of President Walken, that have hallowed out the middle class”.

After early pleasantries the debate kicked into a more serious stage as Maine Governor Paris Stray attacked Seaborn for “believing he should be coronated”; a line of attack that was seized upon by the other candidates.

The presence of ten candidates often led to prolonged shouting matches between a number of candidates at one time. The only time the debate seemed to have any coherence was when the panel were rounding on Seaborn.

Maine Governor Stray will have been delighted by her evening, she seemed to cut through better than any of the other second tier candidates hitting Seaborn on the failures of the Santos administration pointing out that “assuming the country is racing to elected someone who served both of the last two Democratic President seems a bit premature.”

Instant polling in the aftermath of the debate gave the victory to Senator Thorn but the surprise performer of the night seemed to be Montana Governor Kurt Carner who’s charismatic performance and common sense approach seemed to play well in the Mile High City.
 
Is Haffley still the RNC chair?
It's been four years. So probably not. I see him playing a power-broker role.

Who's he backing?

Did he change the party rules during his tenure to help his preferred presidential candidate in 2018?

Are the GOP primaries winner-take-all or proportional? Seems like Haffley would want proportional since a majority of the GOP is right-wing and a moderate would have a hard time winning 50% of the vote.
 
washingtonpost.com
Monday July 10th 2017

Democratic Debate: Winners & Losers


Winners:

Kurt Carner:
The Governor of Montana was excellent last night, he had been relegated to the "second tier" debate back in April, but now alongside the front-runners Senators Thorn & Seaborn, and former Pennsylvania Governor Mike Kellner, he looked like a real serious contender for the nomination. He was funny (If was born another 2 miles north I would be a Canadian), serious (his attack on former Ohio Senator Haydn Straus was powerful saying his anti-NATO stance was dangerous in a dangerous world), honest (I am not the favourite, but I want you folks to hear my message), showed common sense (I have won twice in a strong Republican state, I know what he takes to win over Republican voters, comprise for a start), and he pushed his record as Governor (2nd highest for educational standards for the last three years, fewer people on welfare, 3rd highest for job creation). He probably will not win the nomination, but certainly could be a Vice-Presidential candidate.

Paris Stray: She had been struggling at the bottom of the polls (between just 1-2%) and the Maine Governor needed a break out performance and she gave it big-time. She was the best of the "debate five", she was the first of the candidates to go after Senator Seaborn, all the others seemed hesitate to go after the front-runner at the start but she didn't hold back "Senator Seaborn believes that the nomination is his by right, he believes he should be coroneted, well we have not had a king in America for over two hundred and forty years, we coronate no-one here". She also attacked Seaborn for his place in both the Bartlet & Santos administrations, "The Republicans can't wait to get stuck into your record" adding "President Bartlet & Santos where good men in a difficult time, but we need to move on, that is the country and our party, with you as the nominee, we couldn't do that". Again much like Carner, she has made herself a contender for the Vice-Presidency at least.

Andrew Thorn: The New York Senator did what he needed do to last night, he made no major gaffes, made points on policy, attacked the Republicans where he needed, although he did attack Seaborn, he was more restrained than Paris Stray. He looked Presidential probably for the first time, and also promised to release all his tax returns for the past decade along with a list of his business interests within the coming weeks.

Mike Kellner: He has been the surprise of the campaign so far, he is leading according to most polls in Michigan and South Carolina. He is folksy, he was determined to get the names of voters whom he meant during the last seven months campaigning into almost every answer, he probably over did it abit, but it made the point "I have been talking to the ordinary voters, not the party faithful". He was attacked by Bill Garden over his views on abortion (being a catholic, he is against Abortion personally, does not agree with abortion on demand, but believes in checks and balances especially regards rape and threat of life to the Mother), but hit back saying "I am not going to take lectures in morals from someone has been married three times, and cheated on all his wife's", ouch, he didn't answer the question, but it made the point. He is a clear and real contender for the nomination and the Presidency now.

Losers:

Sam Seaborn: This was bad night for the front-runner. He and his campaign had been pushing that he was going to be the nominee, but he welcomed the views of the other candidates, which made him look very arrogant from the start. Once Paris Stray started the ball-rolling everyone of the candidates got in on the act, at times it was him against nine others. He clearly was not expecting such a coordinated assault, but he did manage to survive (just), there was no big knock out blow landed, and lives to fight another day, but with his poll numbers already falling before this debate, these will not have been helped by this performance.

Rudi Robinson: Five months ago he was the "coming man" the clear alternative to Senator Seaborn, but the Indiana Senator's campaign has been in free-fall since the first debate in April, his fundraising is drying up, his polling numbers falling, and last night, he struggled to get his voice heard. He stumbled over a question about how he could win a presidential election, when it was very likely he would lose if he stood for re-election in the Senate. It is very difficult to see now how he hopes to force himself back into the top tier of candidates.

Haydn Straus: Like Senator Robinson, the former Ohio Senator had been the big hope for the left-liberal wing of the party, but he was all over the place last night, he muddled up the UN General Assembly and the UN Security Council, and his continued attacks on NATO as a "threat to world peace" made him look frankly rather silly, especially after his exchange with Kurt Carner on the subject.

Bill Garden: He is an aggressive debater, but last night his performance didn't help himself, he failed to land blows on Mike Kellner on abortion, and his private life was again used against him, and his replies made him look bad tempered and grumpy.

Scott Bighorse: The South Dakota Congressman had been making slow progress in the polls, and had hoped that the debate would be a major chance prove himself and push his polling numbers upwards, but he failed. He mumbled his answers, and looked very nervous.

Jeremy Lyons: The former Wisconsin Senator, should in theory be a serious contender for the nomination, but he isn't. He doesn't seem to have any positions, other than Senator Seaborn shouldn't be the nominee and President Walken has been a awful President. He looked like and sounded like a university lecturer, he was very ponderous, I would guess that he will not even make it as far as Iowa or New Hampshire.





 
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NBS NEWS

July 10th, 2017

President Qian attacks Shallick before People's Congress

Today Chinese President Wian Min attacked American presidential candidate Henry Shallick. Qian was giving the speech on the third anniversary of his election to the top spot in his party leadership and president.

Qian stated opened his speech with his history as an anti-corruption party member and being the focus of the first political drama on Chinese television. Though a major character is based on him Qian said joked "I wish I looked that good." Qian then announced focused on his reforms to grant citizens more economic freedoms and rights to own property start businesses, and even rights to protest were on his future docket. But he announced there was a threat to the east. Across the Pacific in America the Next US president would end their partnerships and side with the nationalists in Japan."

As Qian stated, "The man I dislike is Henry Shallick. He terrifies me, angers me and worries me all at the same time because he is the sort of man I don't want to see in office across the Pacific. Yet that means the Americans would elect him President. He sides with the fools in Japan that say the rape of Nanking did not happen and want war with us. I don't want a war. But I won't be able to convince the West of my fears of Shallick. When Henry Shallick becomes the next US president he will in his one term do everything under the sun to essentially destroy our trade relations and lead our nations to war."

Qian showing his fear of Herny Shallick is unusual for a Chinese leader. As Qian said. "I show my fear because I know the Americans understand what fear looks like and I want the to know I love spect terrible things under Shallick."

In response to Shallick Qian announced that the PRC would continue development of its military programs and fund its cyberwarfare program. Other members of the Politburo share Qian's fears. A high level Chinese official said, "Our intelligence shows Shallick has a Pax Americana mentality and he would use whatever means to end our threat to the Us hegemony.

The Shallick campaign was reach for comment but has yet to reply.
 
OOC: Sam is going to be Clinton isn't he?
I would not read anything into Sunday's debate or last Thursday's for that matter one to whom is going to be the nominee for each party, we have two or three ideas at the moment, and lots more is going to happen before Iowa goes to the polls in six months (less two days) on January 9th 2018, with New Hampshire following a week later.
 
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Wednesday July 12th 2017

Newell "impressed" but does endorse anyone, yet

Colorado Senator Ben Newell, the winner of the 2014 Democratic Iowa caucus, has ruled out an endorsement of any candidate yet, but said he was "impressed" by the "high standard of many of our candidates" at the debate on Sunday in Boulder.

Both Senators Seaborn and Thorn had been hoping for the endorsement of their fellow Senator after the debate, but it seems the performances of Montana Governor Kurt Carner and Maine Governor Paris Stray where enough for Newell to decide against any public endorsement at this time. Newell told NBS "I thought it was a good debate, we need healthy debate with our party, so we choose the right candidate to end eight years of Republican failure in the White House" adding "I was impressed with the performances of Governors Carner and Stray, they both clearly have a big voice in the future of the party, and shaping our message" but he ruled out any endorsement yet " It is six months to the first votes are cast, seven months until voters here in Colorado go in the polls, so I think it is too early for me to be endorsing anyone".

The decision by Senator Newell will be regarded as a big blow to the Seaborn campaign who believed right up until the debate that Newell would endorse their man on Monday, the day after the debate, although it is understood that the Colorado Senator had made no formal promise of his endorsement.
 
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Thursday July 13, 2017

With New Found Momentum, Stray Takes Debate Message on Road

Following a strong debate performance Maine Governor Paris Stray took her Seaborn attack on the road with her back to Iowa where she held several yet small meet and greet events. In Davenport Iowa at a local diner Stray used the opportunity to define her attack on the front runner Seaborn. "This country has drastically changed over the last several decades. There is a reason why Republicans have held onto the White House the past seven years, we are not in the same place that we were in 1998. Senator Seaborn represents the past and former President Bartlet God rest his soul, was a great man, he was a great President...but we need new leadership. We need a fresh start and we cannot obtain that fresh start if our party is willing to just hold a coronation"

Stray also sent a message to the DNC during her stops in Iowa. When asked if the "Debate Five" achieved what they set out to do in the Colorado Debate Stray had this to say: "Look, I think that we need to take a step back and re-evaluate this whole debate thing. Why would we take the entire field and divide them so that the group that the party has designated "are the only ones that can win" just to find that the best candidate, possibly the next President of this country was one that didn't get that time to connect with a national audience, one that didn't get the chance to challenge the front runners, one that could turn this country around but didn't get the opportunity because the DNC deemed them incapable of winning this nomination...I think it's just a sad state of affairs" The Stray campaign has been struggling to gain national exposure and has struggled in state polling. The debate provided Stray her first real opportunity to get that exposure back on her side.
 
nbs.com, Thursday July 13th

Justice Dreifort Announces Plan to Retire


In a significant announcement released by his office this morning, Supreme Court Justice David Dreifort has announced his plan to resign his seat and retire from public life, prompting what will likely be President Walken’s final opportunity to shape the Supreme Court into the future.

Dreifort, who turned 81 in January, said it had been the “greatest privilege of his life to serve on the highest court in our land.” He thanks President Lassiter who appointed him to the seat in 1991 for allowing him the opportunity and “all of his fellow justices who have served” with him.

Appointed the fill the seat of William J Brennan in 1991 and confirmed by 85-8 in his confirmation hearing, Dreifort grew into one of the most prominent and at time controversial Justices on the court. At different times he defied both sides of the aisle and most recently was hugely critical of President Walken for his actions in the battle over Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell.

Attention will now turn to his replacement. President Walken has been able to make a significant shift in the court over his time in office as two of the most liberal justices; Patrick Lafayette and Marianne Brannigan have both died in office. Up until now the President has largely looked to appoint moderate conservatives, and in both instances appointed Senators, first Judith Rand of Louisiana who has emerged as one of the key swing votes on the court and, more recently Howard Weston of Nevada. Weston’s rulings thus far have suggested a more conservative judicial outlook than many expected.

The debate will likely now move to the Republican controlled Senate as the President will attempt to appoint his next nominee. The names circulating were similar to those who were in the frame at the time of Weston’s nomination. DC Appeals Court Judge Alberto Sanchez-Stall will be high on the list but whether a strict originalist can be confirmed is debatable. Attorney General Ellen Luevano was thought to have been Walken’s second choice in 2016 and will likely be considered again. Harder line conservatives Diane Reiman and Thomas Meyer-Wright are likely to be considered again but analysts this morning suggested keeping an eye on Mary-Kate Jordan, the Chief Judge of the US Appeals Court, Fourth Circuit.
 
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