2010 US Presidential Election

Discussion in 'Alternate History Books and Media' started by Marky Bunny, Dec 4, 2008.

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  1. RRusso1982 Well-Known Member

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    Mar 11, 2010
    Aren't you going to post the Democratic Super Dupa Tuesday polls?
     
  2. Marky Bunny Well-Known Member

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    Sorry it has been a Bank holiday Weekend here in the UK and I have been busy with other things!!
    Polls should be up Wednesday.
     
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  3. Marky Bunny Well-Known Member

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    Location:
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    [​IMG]
    Wednesday August 30th 2017
    All polls include declared candidates only. Based on interviews taken from July 3rd to August 29th
    Polls include voters whom had declared for a candidates, so don't knows are not included.
    Only top five polling candidates are shown.

    Democratic "Super Dupa" Tuesday Polls
    Alabama

    1. Kellner 32%
    2. Seaborn 23%
    3. Thorn 13%
    4. Carner 10%
    5. Robinson 6%
    Alaska
    1. Seaborn 32%
    2. Kellner 27%
    3. Thorn 16%
    4. Carner 10%
    5. Robinson 7%
    Arkansas
    1. Seaborn 31%
    2. Kellner 28%
    3. Thorn 19%
    4. Robinson 10%
    5. Carner 6%
    Arizona
    1. Seaborn 31%
    2. Kellner 25%
    3. Thorn 18%
    4. Robinson 7%
    5. Carner 6%
    California
    1. Seaborn 75%
    2. Thorn 8%
    3. Robinson 6%
    4. Kellner 5%
    5. Carner 3%
    Colorado
    1. Seaborn 26%
    2. Kellner 24%
    3. Thorn 23%
    4. Carner 11%
    5. Robinson 6%
    Connecticut
    1. Seaborn 38%
    2. Thorn 28%
    3. Kellner 13%
    4. Robinson 9%
    5. Carner 5%
    Delaware
    1. Seaborn 36%
    2. Thorn 29%
    3. Kellner 15%
    4. Robinson 8%
    5. Carner 4%
    Georgia
    1. Kellner 34%
    2. Seaborn 25%
    3. Thorn 16%
    4. Carner 7%
    5. Robinson 6%
    Idaho
    1. Kellner 36%
    2. Seaborn 26%
    3. Thorn 15%
    4. Carner 8%
    5. Robinson 4%
    Illinois
    1. Seaborn 37%
    2. Kellner 21%
    3. Thorn 18%
    4. Robisnon 8%
    5. Carner 5%
    Kansas
    1. Seaborn 31%
    2. Kellner 29%
    3. Thorn 19%
    4. Carner 7%
    5. Robinson 4%
    Massachusetts
    1. Seaborn 35%
    2. Thorn 30%
    3. Kellner 12%
    4. Robinson 10%
    5. Carner 4%
    Minnesota
    1. Seaborn 32%
    2. Thorn 26%
    3. Kellner 17%
    4. Carner 8%
    5. Robinson 5%
    Missouri
    1. Seaborn 35%
    2. Kellner 23%
    3. Thorn 20%
    4. Robinson 7%
    5. Carner 5%
    Montana
    1. Carner 42%
    2. Seaborn 25%
    3. Kellner 13%
    4. Thorn 10%
    5. Robinson 4%
    New Jersey
    1. Thorn 34%
    2. Seaborn 32%
    3. Kellner 14%
    4. Robinson 7%
    5. Carner 5%
    New Mexico
    1. Seaborn 31%
    2. Kellner 25%
    3. Thorn 18%
    4. Carner 8%
    5. Robinson 5%
    New York
    1. Thorn 45%
    2. Seaborn 22%
    3. Robinson 10%
    4. Kellner 9%
    5. Carner 5%
    North Dakota
    1. Kellner 32%
    2. Seaborn 25%
    3. Thorn 16%
    4. Carner 12%
    5. Robinson 4%
    Oklahoma
    1. Kellner 35%
    2. Seaborn 24%
    3. Thorn 19%
    4. Carner 8%
    5. Robinson 4%
    Tennessee
    1. Kellner 35%
    2. Seaborn 25%
    3. Thorn 19%
    4. Carner 7%
    5. Robinson 4%
    Utah
    1. Kellner 38%
    2. Seaborn 20%
    3. Thorn 17%
    4. Carner 10%
    5. Robinson 4%
    West Virginia
    1. Seaborn 31%
    2. Thorn 28%
    3. Kellner 24%
    4. Carner 6%
    5. Robinson 4%
    Wyoming
    1. Kellner 39%
    2. Seaborn 22%
    3. Thorn 18%
    4. Carner 9%
    5. Robinson 4%
    Of the 25 states this is the breakdown:
    Seaborn leads in 14 states
    Kellner leads in 8 states
    Thorn leads in 2 states
    Carner leads in 1 state
    Top 3 candidates by average polling across these 25 states:
    1. Seaborn 29.75%
    2. Kellner 22.92%
    3. Thorn 20.56%
     
    Last edited: Aug 30, 2017
  4. Marky Bunny Well-Known Member

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    ICMPolling
    Wednesday August 30th 2017


    Westminster Voting Intention:
    Conservative: 40% (-2)
    Labour: 29% (+5.36)
    National Peoples: 13% (+7.99)
    Liberal Democrat: 12% (-0.17)
    Green: 3% (-0.8)
    Socialist Alliance: 1.5% (-2.22)
    Scotland Only:
    Labour: 33% (-0.84)
    SNP: 26% (+2.29)
    Conservative: 21% (+2.71)
    Liberal Democrat: 9% (-7.43)
    Socialist Alliance: 4% (-0.11)
    Green: 2% (0.98)
    Overall Prediction: Conservative Majority 72
    Uniform National Swing: From Conservative to Labour: 3.68%
    *+/- figures are based on the 2013 General Election
    Fieldwork done:
    August 23rd to August 29th
     
  5. Marky Bunny Well-Known Member

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    DailyMail.com
    Wednesday August 30th 2017

    Survation Poll:

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    Conservative: 42% (n/c)
    Labour: 31% (+7.36)
    National Peoples: 12% (+6.99)
    Liberal Democrat: 10% (-2.17)
    Green: 2.5% (-0.58)
    Socialist Alliance: 1.5% (-2.22)
    Scotland Only:
    Labour 34% (+0.16)
    SNP 26% (+2.29)
    Conservative: 21% (+2.71)
    Liberal Democrat: 8.5% (-7.93)
    Socialist Alliance: 4.5% (+0.39)
    Green: 2% (-0.98)
    Overall Prediction: Conservative Majority 74
    Uniform National Swing: From Conservative to Labour: 3.68%
    *+/- figures are based on the 2013 General Election
    Fieldwork done:
    August 20th to August 29th
     
    Last edited: Aug 30, 2017
  6. Marky Bunny Well-Known Member

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    Location:
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    BBC.CO.UK/Politics
    Thursday August 31st 2017


    Samuels sparks General Election rumours

    Prime Minister Richard Samuels has sparked further speculation about an early General Election by summoning Cabinet ministers to a Chequers summit this weekend to discuss strategy ahead of the return to Parliament following the summer break.

    The special political session of Cabinet at the PM's country residence is expected to consider plans to build momentum in the run-up to this autumn's annual party conference in Blackpool. If Samuels can maintain or extend his opinion poll lead during the next few weeks which has been built up during the Summer break - traditionally a quiet time in the world of politics - he may feel encouraged to go for an election in November or Spring 2018. The next election has to be held by November next year.

    Conservative MPs have also been invited to two seminars on campaign tactics ahead of the party conference. The Prime-Minister held a political Cabinet at Ten Downing Street on Tuesday, at which election co-ordinator George Tamm is believed to have outlined a strategy of attacking Labour leader Andrea Benn for "talking right but acting left".
    He told colleagues that opinion poll support for the Conservatives hardened when voters were asked to compare Mr Samuels and Mrs Benn directly.And he said: "As Labour move from presentation on to policy, the inherent tension between the marketing strategy adopted by Andrea Benn in the early days of her leadership and the Labour Party's continuing left-wing dogma is becoming exposed."That's why Andrea Benn is increasingly talking right but acting left."

    Recent polls have put the Conservatives as much as eleven points ahead of Labour, which suggest a majority of between seventy and eighty seats suggesting the party has benefited from a significant bounce following the row with the European Union over plans for a United Europe, while Mrs Benn has suffered from internal rows over her handling of the row and previous poor local election results back in May.
     
    Last edited: Sep 1, 2017
  7. Marky Bunny Well-Known Member

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    BBC.CO.UK/Politics
    Sunday September 3rd 2017

    Sunday Polls:
    You Gov/Sunday Times:

    Conservative: 42% (n/c)
    Labour: 28% (+4.36)
    National Peoples: 13% (+7.99)
    Liberal Democrat: 11% (-1.17)
    Green: 2.5% (-0.58)
    Socialist Alliance: 1.5% (-2.22)
    Scotland Only:
    Labour: 33% (-0.84)
    SNP: 26% (+2.29)
    Conservative: 21% (+2.71)
    Liberal Democrat: 8.5% (-7.93)
    Socialist Alliance: 4.5% (+0.39)
    Green: 2% (-0.98)
    Overall Prediction: Conservative Majority 110
    Uniform National Swing: From Conservative to Labour: 2.18%
    *+/- figures are based on the 2013 General Election
    Fieldwork done:
    August 20th to September 2nd 2013
     
  8. TWWFan New Member

    Joined:
    Sep 4, 2017
    Hi, I'm new here and just started following this thread. I'm confused about a few things:
    1) What are the statuses of Bartlet Dems like Nancy, CJ, Josh, and Will?
    I know CJ has a super pac and was considered to be a contender for governor of Ohio in 2010, but didn't run, and that Josh had a troubled stint as DNC Chair, but what about Nancy? What would her standing be in the party today, considering her role in the Bartlet and Santos administrations?
     
  9. AbetterAmerica15 Well-Known Member

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    Jun 21, 2010
    Since Santos McNally's is not in any official role other than news contributor. CJ is working on Sam's Presidential run, Josh is also not serving in any official role after serving as DNC chair. Will is a Congressman in Oregon serving on the ways and means committee.
     
  10. Marky Bunny Well-Known Member

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    Mar 13, 2007
    Location:
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    Thanks for writing the reply
     
  11. TWWFan New Member

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    Sep 4, 2017
    Thank you. I think McNally would make a terrific SecDef in a future Seaborn admin, but maybe that's getting ahead of myself.
     
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  12. Marky Bunny Well-Known Member

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    Location:
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    Four months from Iowa, and the Dem race is basically between Seaborn, Thorn and Kellner. Sam still has the advantage in the polls, name and money, Thorn is stronger in the national polls than Kellner but Kellner is doing better "on the ground" especially in the South and the more Conservative/Republican states, but the race is still Sam's to lose!!
     
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  13. Marky Bunny Well-Known Member

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    Location:
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    BBC.CO.UK/Politics
    Wednesday September 6th 2017

    Benn challenges Samuels to call a General Election

    In the first PMQ's since the summer break, Labour Leader Andrea Benn surprisingly challenged Prime-Minister Richard Samuels to call a General Election.
    Westminster has been full of speculation that the Prime-Minister was gearing up for a General Election in October or November. It is not due to be called until November 2018, most pundits had been predicting a May or June election, but the recent polls which show an average ten point lead for the Conservatives which would give them between a 70-80 seat majority.

    After two meetings of the Cabinet in the last two weeks, including a special session at Chequers last weekend, had put the press on full alert, and there has also been briefings from sources from within Number Ten and Conservative Central Office indicating the likelihood of a General election, with Central office cancelling all leave until December.

    In a surprise move Andrea Benn used her first question to take the battle to the Prime-Minister "I hope the Prime-Minister enjoyed his summer holiday. When is he going to call a General Election so I can make sure he can have more holidays". It was a surprise but brave move concerning the state of the polls, but it seemed to knock Samuels off his stride "When I decide to call an Election, the right honourable lady will know, I can assure her, and when I do, I will be ready to put my Government's case before the country".
     
    Last edited: Sep 6, 2017
  14. Marky Bunny Well-Known Member

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    [​IMG]
    Thursday September 7th 2017

    Durham "I am not a quitter" as he launches attacks on Republicans and Democrats

    Californian Congressman Will Durham has told supporters at a rally in Des Moines, Iowa that he is not a "quitter" after reports that he was ready to drop out of the Presidential race and run for Governor of California instead.

    He admitted that several "big names" from within the Republican party had spoken to him and suggested that he should end his Presidential ambitions and focus on the Californian gubernatorial race. "I have to say I was tempted, but I am not a quitter, I think our party can do something different next year, we don't have to nominate one of two Washington in-siders, who think it is their turn by right, or a man who would only deliver a landslide to the Democrats. I can take the fight to the Democrats in places like New York, Vermont, Maine, and I can win back Ohio and Florida" adding "people forget that Arnie Vinick and President Walken both won Vermont, and President Walken got within 4,000 votes, just half a % point in 2010 in New York".

    He also turned his attacks on the Democratic front-runners, calling Senator Seaborn "he thinks the Presidency is his by right, he is a relic of the Bartlet-Santos years of failure" whilst Andrew Thorn was a "millionaire businessman who thinks he knows best" whilst former Pennsylvania Governor Michael Kellner was a con man "he is talking like a Republican, talking tough on spending, but have a look at his record as Governor, he says one thing but his record is the complete opposite".
     
    Last edited: Sep 7, 2017
  15. Marky Bunny Well-Known Member

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    UKElects.com
    Sunday September 10th 2017


    Sunday Polls:
    You Gov/Sunday Times:

    Conservative:40% (-2)
    Labour:32% (+8.36)
    National Peoples: 12% (+6.99)
    Liberal Democrat: 11% (-1.17)
    Green: 2.5% (-0.58)
    Socialist Alliance: 2% (-1.72)
    Scotland Only
    Labour: 32% (-1.84)
    SNP: 27% (+3.29)
    Conservative:22% (+3.71)
    Liberal Democrat: 8.5% (-7.93)
    Socialist Alliance: 4.5% (+0.39)
    Green: 2% (-0.98)
    Overall Prediction: Conservative Majority 38
    Uniform National Swing: From Conservative to Labour: 5.18%
    *+/- figures are based on the 2013 General Election

    ComRes/Independent:
    Conservative: 41% (-1)
    Labour: 30% (+6.36)
    National Peoples 12% (+6.99)
    Liberal Democrat: 11% (-1.17)
    Green: 2.5% (-0.58)
    Socialist Alliance: 2% (-1.72)
    Scotland Only
    Labour: 33% (-0.84)
    SNP: 26% (+2.29)
    Conservative: 21% (+2.71)
    Liberal Democrat: 8.5% (-7.93)
    Socialist Alliance: 4.5% (+0.39)
    Green: 2% (-0.98)
    Overall Prediction: Conservative Majority 76
    Uniform National Swing: From Conservative to Labour: 3.68%
    *+/- figures are based on the 2013 General Election

     
    Last edited: Sep 10, 2017
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  16. Marky Bunny Well-Known Member

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    UK Polling Report July to September
     

    Attached Files:

  17. TWWFan New Member

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    Sep 4, 2017
    nbs.com, Tuesday, September 12

    Helen Santos: Democrats must be more than the "anti-Walken" party


    At a Dallas campaign fundraiser, Texas senate hopeful and former First Lady Helen Santos stated her belief that Democrats must be more than the party of anti-Walken.

    "We support universal healthcare, education reform, and livable wages. We support the right of all Americans to vote. We support the rights of women who wish to make their own choices, and we believe that we must do our part to make our planet livable. It is time to be passionate about what we believe in, and carry that passion to the polls!"

    Santos is currently campaigning to win the Democratic nomination to run against Senator Davis Roberts next November.
     
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  18. ajm8888 That Guy from Minnesota

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    Nov 13, 2010
    ACN.COM

    Wednesday September 13th, 2017

    Romanova to make major announcement.


    President Natalya Romanova of Russia will announce a major political decision regarding Russian military forces in Moldova.
     
  19. Marky Bunny Well-Known Member

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    Mar 13, 2007
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    BBC.CO.UK/politics
    Wednesday September 13th 2017

    Samuels remains evasive over continued General Election speculation

    The final Prime-Minister's Questions before the Party Conference season gets underway was dominated by speculation about a snap general election today as the Prime-Minister Richard Samuels again refused to rule out an autumn poll.

    Labour Leader Andrea Benn for the second week running called for the Prime-Minister "to end the damaging speculation and have the courage of his convictions and call a General election". Benn despite her party being an average of ten points behind the Government in the polls, has been in combative form last week and today at PMQ's. After taking a easy soft ball question from a Conservative back bencher which the Prime-Minister used to praise his own record "the government's record and success in economic growth, and success in education and Health is a record I am very proud of" allowing Benn to use her first question "if the Prime-Minister is the proud he should call a general election straight after we finish here in this chamber". The Prime-Minister replied "I and my government have got a programme of change for the future. We are continuing on a path of growth and successful policies, what does she have, Mr Speaker, words, she talks a good game, but went it comes down she and the party she leads have no vision, only a return to the failed policies of the past"

    It does seem unlikely that the Prime-Minister will announce any election before the Party Conference which many in the party and the Cabinet had been urging him to, but that option now seems very unlikely, with the Socialist Alliance due to meet in Glasgow on Saturday and announce a new leader, which will be followed by the National Peoples party, the Liberal Democrats, Labour and finishing with the Conservatives in Blackpool on October 4th. If an election is to be called it is likely to be announced at the end of the Conservative Party conference as happened in 2013.
     
    Last edited: Sep 15, 2017
  20. Marky Bunny Well-Known Member

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    BBC.CO.UK/politics
    Thursday September 14th 2017


    Cabinet "divided" over Autumn election

    Sources from the within the government have told the BBC that the Cabinet is "divided" over the possible decision to call an Autumn General Election.

    It is understood that the Home Secretary Michael Duggan, Chancellor William Morgan and Party Chairman and Election co-ordinator George Tamm are for an election, whilst Deputy Prime-Minister Frank Cameron, Foreign Secretary Fiona Wallace and Business Secretary Martin Greenwall are all opposed.

    "The Cabinet is split down the middle, and divided, and the Prime-Minister can't make up his mind" a source told the BBC late last night. The "no election" faction favour waiting until after the Local elections and London Mayoral Election due to be held on May 3rd 2018, which would be mean a June Election or even waiting until next October (The next election has to be held by November 8th 2018).
     
    Last edited: Sep 15, 2017