washingtonpost.com, Friday November 7th
Royce Announcement Shakes Up Senate Picture
Republican hopes of reclaiming the Senate seem further fetched than at any point over the past six months with the news that former Senate Majority Leader Robert Royce is to stand down in 2016. The resignation creates another high profile, highly competitive race in an already challenging slate of races. In Vermont and New York incumbent Senators face uphill battles to win heavily Democratic states – and they’ll likely be without the tail wind of strong national Republican vote as they had in 2010. The GOP do have some very attractive pick-up opportunities and in states such as Ohio have recruited top tier candidates into winnable races – but the math doesn’t add up unless they can hold Pennsylvania, New York and Vermont – and that looks a very long shot as things stand today.
Anyway, to the line....
Dropping Off: Colorado, Indiana
Coming On: Pennsylvania, Nevada
10. Arizona (R): For now it looks like 78 year old incumbent Matt Hunt is planning on staying in the race. Disappointing some Republicans who were hoping that AG Jason Rios might be able to get in should he stand aside. Democrats remain keen on the candidacy of Antonio Rodrigues and he shown plenty of interest, but ultimately he might pass if Hunt decides to stretch his time in the Senate into a fourth decade.
9. Iowa (D): Rod Kasey is still in with a chance and that’s a result really, since his approval ratings are sub 40%. Congressman Brian Hale has already declared he’s running but looks anything but formidable on the Republican side. Some in the local party are hopeful that former State House Speaker Bryce Bradley can be talked into a run – he’d certainly make things more interesting.
8. South Carolina (D): Tim McCord’s fundraising numbers continue to point to a guy who’s hearts not in the race. He exhausted boundless energy getting his brother elected in 2014, but looks much like he’s struggling to find the motivation for his own race. He’s also likely to face Congressman Brad Maxwell, the man who lost narrowly to Governor Nate Singer in 2011, so anything less than his best is unlikely to be enough – for now it looks tough.
7. Nevada (R) Howard Weston has long been mentioned as a someone looking for an opportunity to leave the Senate. He was vetted for Attorney General back in 2011 and was reportedly considered for Secretary of State before Tom Case got the job in 2013. That being said it’s entirely possible he may get his wish in 2016 but by different route. Democrats are hopeful that they can take advantage of his 47% approval rating and are very high on Congressman Matthew Spencer – a 4 term Congressman for the State’s 1st District, despite only being 36 years old. He has an interesting back story between his mother who has prominently campaigned for Alzheimers support for years, but recently reported that she had been diagnosed with the illness to his FBI agent twin brother (no really, he does.).
6. North Carolina (D): Senator Brett Logan faces a tough battle with increasing signs that former Governor Andrew Wu is likely to challenge the first term Senator. Wu will need to negotiate a potentially tricky primary against Congresswoman Barbara Layton, who stood aside for then Attorney General Kenny Stattler in 2014 but shows no signs of offering Wu the same courtesy. Layton will clearly position herself to Wu’s right, Logan’s camp will be hoping that she drags the Governor away from the centre ground that he’s straddled for his six years in Washington.
5. Pennsylvania (R) – The last thing the Republicans in the Senate needed was to defend another seat from the Democrats, but the announcement by former Majority Leader Robert Royce that he was retiring has led to exactly that. Democrats will likely turn to Congressman Matt Clausen, who’s waited in line for a top tier race for years, he’ll most likely get his wish next year. Some in the DSCC are keen on convincing former Pittsburgh Mayor Jackson Kennedy to return to front line politics; his book release about his battle with drugs and his very public coming out has been a considerable success, but nobody is clear whether or not his debut as an author was the start of a political comeback. Clausen may also find an opponent to his ideological right if Congresswoman Eric Greenwood, a prominent blue-dog follows through on her hints that she might run. The Republicans are still shell shocked from the Royce announcement, they have some options but none that will make the race anything other than a toss-up. Former Congressman Joe Bruno has the name recognition, but may not have the appetite, Travis Hoyt who lost a primary race to Senator Carlin Cassidy in 2012 will likely be interested. Lesser known candidates such as former State Senator and current NBA executive Hayden Nester could be stronger bets but they will need to navigate some complex waters first.
4. North Dakota (D): Assitant Majority Leader Harry Conroy is in big trouble, no doubt about it. Governor Jamie Mueller is coasting to re-election and she’s now convinced her popular Lt. Governor to challenge Conroy. Matt Chantler, is a former North Dakota State Quarterback, who briefly flirted with the NFL after being drafted by the Buffalo Bills in 1994. His political career has also been a success, despite (in fact probably because) of his links to the energy boom in the state, he’s very popular (though not so much amongst environmentalists), and has high name recognition. Conroy, who is an able politician and will likely find lots of national support will need something to change the momentum if he’s going to be successful.
3. Ohio (D): There seems little doubt that the GOP are going to unite behind Congresswoman Ruth Norton-Stewart, she’s done an excellent job of keeping former Congressman Alan Tomlinson marginalised and by all accounts has convinced former Senator Thomas Ford that it’s not time for a comeback. With RNS all but officially in, if she manages to clear the field this will be without doubt the no.1 GOP target of the cycle. Not surprisingly Norton-Stewart’s early success is giving fright to potential Democrats. Justin Willis who narrowly lost to Dylan Garrison in 2012 will likely try again but national Democrats hopes of attracting the two major candidates, former Governor Josie Bail and former White House Chief of Staff CJ Cregg look to be doomed. Bail’s father is terminally ill and she’s made it clear that she will stay focused on her career in the media for now. Ms. Cregg also seems to have other areas of interest – most notably she seems to be laying the ground for California Senator Sam Seaborn to run for President in 2018.
2. New York (R): There is little doubt that Jay Cruger is in big trouble. His fundraising to this point has been anaemic, prompting some to suggest he would drop out – he vehemently denied that during an interview last week and said he was very much in it to win it. Nice words, but in reality he faces a very tough battle and if it weren’t for the demographic mismatch in Vermont this race would definitely top the list. Not surprisingly Democratic sharks are circling. Congressmen Scott Van Damm (Jean-Claude to his friends…..) and Tim Burrell are edging close to formal announcements. The x-factor may be State Gambling Commission Chairman Buck Freeman, who is independently wealth, very well connected and has certainly has the energy for the race.
1. Vermont (R): State House Speaker Marietta Nerlinger is almost certainly in, and that spells bad news for incumbent Matthew Skinner. The Skinner camps relief that Governor Janet Lorton opted for a 4th term as Governor was palpable but in Nerlinger they’ve probably got the next worst option. Polling suggests the incumbent will start with a significant polling deficit, a financial disadvantage and a state that leans against him. The question will be how many resources will the national GOP be prepared to extend to protect the single openly gay Senator on Capitol Hill.