1992 without NAFTA?

[True Grit]

I'm doing some research on a potential timeline, and I'm curious how the board thinks the 1992 U.S. presidential election would turn out without the North American Free Trade Agreement.

I imagine it would probably result in Perot never entering the race, for one thing, but besides that I'm not sure how much of an impact it would have. Would Bush or Clinton do better than OTL, would Clinton even be the Democratic nominee, etc.?

 

[True Grit]

Nobody has any thoughts?

 

[RobertTaftfan234]

If I had to guess is that the election probably wouldn't change too much, since Perot took about evenly from both candidates, I think 38% of his votes would have gone to Clinton, 38% to Bush, and the rest would have stayed home. I think Bush might do a little better, I think he could win Georgia over, and maybe New Hampshire, if all of Perot's vote went to him in those states. But overall, I still think Clinton is able to pull of the victory.

 

[True Grit]

Would the Democratic primaries be much different without NAFTA? I.e. would Clinton still be the nominee, or would other, stronger candidates (such as Mario Cuomo) be more likely to enter the race?