1972 election if Humphrey wins in 68

Suppose Agnew's crimes came out at the right time in October 68 and Humphrey won.

Who would Republicans run?

I have a fantasy of Reagan running being nominated and losing by a LOT on a 'Win the War in Vietnam' platform. Especially as he would seek Wallace votes in the South.
 
If Reagan runs on a platform of winning in Vietnam in 1972, the Republican Party will pretty much become nothing more than the party of warmongers and bigots. I don’t even know if business could stand with them at that point - either they would jump ship to the Democrats, making America a one-party State outside the South and a swath of the Midwest, or a new party would replace them and end up far more Eisenhower than Reagan. So yes, Reagan would be discredited this way, but more realistically, a middle-of-the-Road Republican runs and loses a tight election in 1972, there’s no Watergate, America doesn’t lose faith in its government en masse, and the 1980s are very toned down as far as economic reform and anti-drug propaganda. You may even see the beginnings of a response to the AIDS crisis. But it would be with Reagan as a man whose time never came rather than a man who isn’t utterly discredited a la Goldwater.
 

bguy

Donor
Suppose Agnew's crimes came out at the right time in October 68 and Humphrey won.

Who would Republicans run?

I have a fantasy of Reagan running being nominated and losing by a LOT on a 'Win the War in Vietnam' platform. Especially as he would seek Wallace votes in the South.

Wouldn't Vietnam clearly be unwinnable by 1972? (Indeed depending on how quickly Humphrey drew down U.S. forces, it's conceivably that Saigon might have already fallen by that year.) I think Reagan would campaign on blaming the Democrats for losing the Vietnam War (easy to do since the Democrats have controlled the presidency for the entire war) rather than on trying to double down on a war that is obviously lost by 1972.
 
Hm... if Nixon didn't get elected, does anybody think he would run again in '72, or was he done by that point?
 
Hm... if Nixon didn't get elected, does anybody think he would run again in '72, or was he done by that point?

It would be hard for him to plausibly stage another comeback if 68 is another agonizingly close loss. Given how much respect Nixon gained back with people by the time he died (regular phonecalls with Clinton, op-eds on foreign policy being carried by major publications) I could see him K street being in early on the GOP think tank boom with a lobbying gig on the side and being a well respected elder statesman.

Also, there would be so many AH.com Nixon wins in 62 or 68 threads where he turns out to be the greatest POTUS in history.
 
I highly doubt that Humphrey would win re-election in 1972. While Nixon did much better than Goldwater, it would reaffirm the failings of the Southern Strategy, and the Republicans would recoil from it. A moderate Republican such as Nelson Rockefeller, George Romney, or possibly a Draft Ford candidacy could beat Humphrey in '72, based off of party fatigue and a failing economy, especially of Humphrey gets a primary challenge from George Wallace.

That being said, the Republicans continuously shifting to the right was inevitable by that point, and you may have seen Vice President Reagan in 1972, and a later Reagan presidential bid regardless of the results in '72.
 
I highly doubt that Humphrey would win re-election in 1972. While Nixon did much better than Goldwater, it would reaffirm the failings of the Southern Strategy, and the Republicans would recoil from it. A moderate Republican such as Nelson Rockefeller, George Romney, or possibly a Draft Ford candidacy could beat Humphrey in '72, based off of party fatigue and a failing economy, especially of Humphrey gets a primary challenge from George Wallace.

That being said, the Republicans continuously shifting to the right was inevitable by that point, and you may have seen Vice President Reagan in 1972, and a later Reagan presidential bid regardless of the results in '72.

Why would the economy be failing? Nixon ran on "Peace and Prosperity" in 1972 and won in a blowout.
 
Why would the economy be failing? Nixon ran on "Peace and Prosperity" in 1972 and won in a blowout.
Nevermind, I put the '70s recession early when I was writing that.

Regardless though, I still wouldn't give Humphrey great odds against a moderate Republican in 1972. Nixon was able to focus on the economy as a campaign credential because he was able to make it about the economy, due to having just served one term. Humphrey would still be tied down by social issues and Vietnam, and would still be associated with Lyndon Johnson. The Democrats would largely still be dealing with the same internal problems as 1968, and the same external problems after 12 consecutive years, and that certainly could've been taken advantage of.
 

Deleted member 16736

Back in 2016, I posted this response to a similar question.

I've long thought that George Wallace would likely challenge President Humphrey in the primaries, playing on dissatisfaction with the liberal slant of the administration (run by two northerners) to form a base of support. How successful he would be would depend on the circumstances, but you have to remember that Wallace's populist appeal would help him immensely against Humphrey who was a politician not designed for the primary system. I could see him taking a few of the deep south states and picking up delegates in the northern rust belt states where he performed well IOTL, such as Wisconsin, Indiana, and Pennsylvania. The question is what he would do with his delegates; I think he'd look to wrangle some concessions, both personal and political, from Humphrey in exchange for not making a big fuss at the convention.

For the Republicans, I think Reagan is an obvious choice to run. Governor Rhodes of Ohio would be another solid option without the taint of Kent State on his record. Nelson Rockefeller would run because after chasing the nomination for 12 years he just wouldn't be able to resist another go at it, although he'd be about as skilled at running in the primaries as Humphrey and without the benefit of being a sitting president. Assuming he still wins, which he should, Senator James Buckley of New York would provide a conservative alternative if Reagan decides to hold out until 1976, and Peter Dominick of Colorado might do the job if neither of those options runs. John Volpe was on Nixon's short list for VP, and might make a go at the big job himself as a moderate.

Now for the list of Republicans who I think would not run. Edward Brooke is up for reelection and never showed any interest in seeking the Republican nomination for president. Even if he did, his campaign would not get very far in 1972 when the prospect of the first black president would not have been a selling point. Howard Baker, too, is up for reelection in 1972 and didn't yet have the stature to run a national campaign. On the liberal Republican bench I doubt you'd see either George Romney or John Lindsay make another attempt. And Gerald Ford had no interest in the job until he was thrust into it upon Nixon's resignation, so I think he'd be content staying put in the House.

At the end of the day I don't know that it's impossible that a Republican could beat Humphrey even if the economy was good and the war in Vietnam didn't end in the collapse of the South. There's still going to be a lot of discontentment among traditional Democratic voting blocks in the south and the west that might allow someone like Reagan to win in a squeaker come election day.
 

bguy

Donor
Why would the economy be failing? Nixon ran on "Peace and Prosperity" in 1972 and won in a blowout.

Would Humphrey pursue the same economic policies as Nixon that helped insure "prosperity" for the 1972 election? I would expect President Humphrey's economic policy to focus primarily on getting something akin to OTL's Humphrey-Hawkins Act enacted. That's going to take a lot of political capital on Humphrey's part and may mean that the Economic Stabilization Act of 1970 (the law that gave Nixon the authority to impose wage and price controls) doesn't get passed that year. And if the Economic Stabilization Act doesn't get passed in 1970 then there is a good chance it never gets passed as the Democrats will almost certainly lose a substantial number of seats in the 1970 mid-term elections due to the sluggish economy, Vietnam, and the natural tendency of the American public to vote against the president's party during midterm elections and could very well lose their majority in the House outright (the Republicans only need to pick up about 25 seats from their OTL 1968 numbers to have a majority in the House). Thus President Humphrey may not have the legal authority to impose wage and price controls, which will likely mean the economy could look very difficult by 1972 from the OTL economy.
 
Well, you might be glossing over the effect of Humphrey-Hawkins. Full employment is nothing to be laughed at.

Besides that, I question the severity of the mid-term losses. The GOP lost 12 seat IOTL in 1970; they would have to get 26 to win a majority in the House, assuming no downballot changes in 1968. So that's 14 more seats than were gained OTL for the opposition party. I just don't see the GOP doubling the gains. I'm just personally skeptical that the Dems were in a position to lose the house, considering they held it for 40 years, and I'm not sure even a bad economy would be enough to swing that many compared to OTL.
 

bguy

Donor
Well, you might be glossing over the effect of Humphrey-Hawkins. Full employment is nothing to be laughed at.

Maybe, but if it does reduce unemployment it is likely to do so at the cost of fueling inflation which would damage Humphrey's prosperity message for 1972.

Besides that, I question the severity of the mid-term losses. The GOP lost 12 seat IOTL in 1970; they would have to get 26 to win a majority in the House, assuming no downballot changes in 1968. So that's 14 more seats than were gained OTL for the opposition party. I just don't see the GOP doubling the gains. I'm just personally skeptical that the Dems were in a position to lose the house, considering they held it for 40 years, and I'm not sure even a bad economy would be enough to swing that many compared to OTL.

Well it's not just a bad economy. America is losing the war in Vietnam. Crime is sharply increasing all over the country. Federal judges are starting to mandate (deeply unpopular) desegregation busing. And the Democrats have held power for the last ten years which means they are going to take the blame for all of these problems. That's a very different situation than the Republicans IOTL 1970 where they had only held the presidency for two years and thus wouldn't be viewed nearly as responsible for everything going wrong for the country.

Besides even if the Republicans don't win a House majority outright in 1970, President Humphrey is going to be deeply unpopular in the South, which means you could easily see an effective Republican-Southern Democrat alliance form in Congress to block most of President Humphrey's legislative agenda.
 
Assuming that Humphrey-Muskie wins in 1968 and pursues policies that are popular, I see the advantages of incumbency as significant. Yes, Wallace might have entered the primaries against Humphrey but that assumes that the conservative Republicans would not have forged a Rightist-Segregationist alliance of Wallace and Reagan by 1972 particularly if the Republican pivoted towards a more moderate candidate in 1972. I see Nixon as being done after a 1968 loss.
 
I think the most interesting question is what would the Republicans do in terms of ideological bent after a 1968 loss. After Goldwater loss and then a Nixon loss where he clearly turned right, I would suggest that two camps would emerge. One faction would argue that the Republicans need to go full tilt conservative in 1972. Another faction would argue for a more moderate and sane Republican candidate. I would see Reagan as the darling of the ultraconservatives. Would Reagan be able to bring in the Southern Democrats in 1972? Could the Reagan Democrats emerge earlier? Could he cut a deal with Wallace? I would see Reagan up against a Scranton, Lodge, Rockefeller or even McCloskey.

As an aside, it is interesting to consider how some of the Republican players don't develop without the Nixon Administration. George H.W. Bush would be former Congressman defeated twice for the US Senate and Eliott Richardson would simply have been a former Attorney General of Massachusetts and Massachusetts Lt. Governor. Another question is whether Richardson would have run for Governor of Massachusetts in 1970? Could he have beaten "Sarge" Sargent for the Republican nomination and then beaten Kevin White in the general? Would Governor Richardson emerge as a liberal alternative to Reagan in the 1972 presidential stakes or perhaps in 1976?
 
A news photo from 1970

11_07_001113 (1).jpg
 
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