The 1948 South African election is often seen as one of the more important elections of the 20th century, in at least that it led creation of the formal apartheid system after the unseating of the victorious wartime ministry of Jan Smuts. Then of course everything else past that.
The results (see below) in essence gave the NP/AP alliance 79 seats to the UP/LP's 71. In total, totting up all other seats, a majority of 5 to the Alliance. Not a huge majority but more than enough to do whatever they wanted to do.
Let us say that there is no major POD and the UP / LP wins just enough to retain power, but the NP/AP makes substantial advances as per OTL. So, the UP has enough to govern, but the NP alliance has enough to be a plausible alternative/win the next election. As contrasted to a substantial, solid UP win. If there is no major POD, just slightly better performances by the UP candidates in at least 5 seats, then they win. Let us say they win slightly more than that, so they have more seats than the NP by themselves and a couple of seats majority at least, just enough that there is no prospect of the NP alliance sneaking through with minor defections.
So what happens next?
1. What is the UP's plan for the 48-51 term?
2. Do they liberalise any of the racial provisions, whether voting, economic, land or otherwise?
3. Do they take any steps to change things to make it more likely they will win in future? Say working on the rural/urban weighting, more immigration, etc
4. Smuts - I take it he leaves, but who replaces? Hofmeyer? Note, he may die as per OTL in 1948
Further
Now, as most of us are aware on this forum anyway, racial politics and law in South Africa had been pretty discriminatory prior to this point for various reasons and the United Party/or moderates generally had some responsibility for this as well. Race being a constant electoral issue in the Union from 1910 onwards. A United Party/Smuts victory does not necessarily mean much in the way of progress for non white voters, but it is at least better than the alternative.
So, as to the point of the thread. Well, the key question is, what does the Smuts led United party do in the case of a victory? Let us assume that it is a narrow victory at best and so they must consider a new election could be called before the end of the term in 1951. Specifically, racial issues and immigration (I'm quite aware there was far more to the 48 election than this).
Does the UP actually liberalise voting rules, does it loosen other restrictions, etc? Or does it introduce new restrictions, milder than the NP plans, but still a detriment? Regardless, were there any concrete plans here? I am aware Hofmeyer had various liberal ideas on this matter.
Which leads onto the next point, what happens to the UP and Smuts? Does Smuts go? Does Hofmeyer take over? If not, who? Does this help the UP prepare for the next election?
What happens to the NP/AP alliance? Do they merge/collapse?
What happens to Labour?
Apologies in advance, as this topic does come up often, sort of!
Background election information
National 70 45.75 401,834 37.70
United 65 42.48 524,230 49.18
Afrikaner Party 9 5.88 41,885 3.93
Labour 6 3.92 27,360 2.57
Independent 3 1.96 70,662 6.63
Registered Voters - 1,337,534
Total Votes (Voter Turnout) - 1,073,364 (80.2%)
Invalid/Blank Votes - 7,393
Total Valid Votes - 1,065,971
NP/AP alliance marginals: 3 seats under 100, 5 seats under 200, 11 under 500
9th Delimitation Commission – eliminated 8 seats, 6 of which were UP, 2 NP/Alliance. NP won 6/8, UP 1, LP 1. It has been posited that if they had not been eliminated, the UP would have retained at least 2 plus possible 1-3.
I've largely pulled the numbers from the book below, which I found after a brief search
Afrikaner Politics in South Africa, 1934-1948
By Newell Maynard Stultz
The results (see below) in essence gave the NP/AP alliance 79 seats to the UP/LP's 71. In total, totting up all other seats, a majority of 5 to the Alliance. Not a huge majority but more than enough to do whatever they wanted to do.
Let us say that there is no major POD and the UP / LP wins just enough to retain power, but the NP/AP makes substantial advances as per OTL. So, the UP has enough to govern, but the NP alliance has enough to be a plausible alternative/win the next election. As contrasted to a substantial, solid UP win. If there is no major POD, just slightly better performances by the UP candidates in at least 5 seats, then they win. Let us say they win slightly more than that, so they have more seats than the NP by themselves and a couple of seats majority at least, just enough that there is no prospect of the NP alliance sneaking through with minor defections.
So what happens next?
1. What is the UP's plan for the 48-51 term?
2. Do they liberalise any of the racial provisions, whether voting, economic, land or otherwise?
3. Do they take any steps to change things to make it more likely they will win in future? Say working on the rural/urban weighting, more immigration, etc
4. Smuts - I take it he leaves, but who replaces? Hofmeyer? Note, he may die as per OTL in 1948
Further
Now, as most of us are aware on this forum anyway, racial politics and law in South Africa had been pretty discriminatory prior to this point for various reasons and the United Party/or moderates generally had some responsibility for this as well. Race being a constant electoral issue in the Union from 1910 onwards. A United Party/Smuts victory does not necessarily mean much in the way of progress for non white voters, but it is at least better than the alternative.
So, as to the point of the thread. Well, the key question is, what does the Smuts led United party do in the case of a victory? Let us assume that it is a narrow victory at best and so they must consider a new election could be called before the end of the term in 1951. Specifically, racial issues and immigration (I'm quite aware there was far more to the 48 election than this).
Does the UP actually liberalise voting rules, does it loosen other restrictions, etc? Or does it introduce new restrictions, milder than the NP plans, but still a detriment? Regardless, were there any concrete plans here? I am aware Hofmeyer had various liberal ideas on this matter.
Which leads onto the next point, what happens to the UP and Smuts? Does Smuts go? Does Hofmeyer take over? If not, who? Does this help the UP prepare for the next election?
What happens to the NP/AP alliance? Do they merge/collapse?
What happens to Labour?
Apologies in advance, as this topic does come up often, sort of!
Background election information
National 70 45.75 401,834 37.70
United 65 42.48 524,230 49.18
Afrikaner Party 9 5.88 41,885 3.93
Labour 6 3.92 27,360 2.57
Independent 3 1.96 70,662 6.63
Registered Voters - 1,337,534
Total Votes (Voter Turnout) - 1,073,364 (80.2%)
Invalid/Blank Votes - 7,393
Total Valid Votes - 1,065,971
NP/AP alliance marginals: 3 seats under 100, 5 seats under 200, 11 under 500
9th Delimitation Commission – eliminated 8 seats, 6 of which were UP, 2 NP/Alliance. NP won 6/8, UP 1, LP 1. It has been posited that if they had not been eliminated, the UP would have retained at least 2 plus possible 1-3.
I've largely pulled the numbers from the book below, which I found after a brief search
Afrikaner Politics in South Africa, 1934-1948
By Newell Maynard Stultz