1894 Sasun rebellion success

[Quinkana]

How would the Armenians be able to win against the Ottomans in the Sasun rebellion and somewhat and create a state around Lake Van and Cilicia?

Personally I'd think they would need to get assistance from the Western powers and Russia to work, since Russia would foot the bill of the weapons and first and Britain will need to reach an understanding with Russia to ensure that the Armenians don't get wrecked by the Western powers preventing shipments from supplying the rebellion.

That would require an Armenian 'great man' that is charismatic, sensible, and a great general who can work with the powers involved, influence important people to get them to work for Armenia, be able to balance between Russia and Britain and be able to win a war. That's implausible for sure, considering otl, so I'm willing to consider SIs, but alt people who have similar characteristics can either be slightly different as a pod or have siblings that can do all that I listed out.

 

[Sarthak]

It was militarily, literally an impossibility. The Ottoman regulars did not even need to come out of their barracks for the entirety of the conflict and were dealt with by irregulars and some vaguely pro-government Kurdish bands. Diplomatically, Russia was supporting the Ottomans due to the precedent it would create within Russian Armenian territory and as such, diplomatically an impossibility too. It was a situation that was impossible for the Sasun Rebels to win.

 

[Quinkana]

It was militarily, literally an impossibility. The Ottoman regulars did not even need to come out of their barracks for the entirety of the conflict and were dealt with by irregulars and some vaguely pro-government Kurdish bands. Diplomatically, Russia was supporting the Ottomans due to the precedent it would create within Russian Armenian territory and as such, diplomatically an impossibility too. It was a situation that was impossible for the Sasun Rebels to win.

Ik, that's why I said that you need quite a lot of changes before 1894 for that to occur. Like you'd need a guy in the 1860s starting to change how Armenians deal with the ottomans and be able to have diplomatic relations with Britain and France that will let them have the weapons they need to fight the Ottomans. All of that's really hard to do. At most I can see this as the Brits riding the high of liberating Greece or something.

So, what I'm asking is how to make Armenia be able to form it's own country in the late 19th century. The details after that occurs would be interesting but ultimately the question is how would Armenia form a nation state post 1800.

 

[Mightyboosh5]

I think the sasun rebellion is more accurately described as a resistance or a protest, it was not an armenian nationalist uprising with the aim of creating a state. It was a conflict between armenians and the kurds who held a semi feudal hold over them in the countryside and subjected them to double taxation.

This makes it somewhat easier for it to succeed as if the ottoman central government had intervened on the side of the armenians against the kurds, its likely they would have put down arms at the end of it.

Also as others have said creating an armenian state in 1894 would require a lot of changes in the decades before, id say it would probably have to take place during an ottoman civil war or an invasion by russia, the ottoman armenians were numerous but they were spread thinly across anatolia in a patchwork of villages and towns, which often intermixed with kurdish turkish and alevi communities.

An attempt for armenians to rebel during peacetime would fail for sure as the muslim population of anatolia during this time showed their willingness to wholesale slaughter of the armenians during the 1896 massacres, had there been a genuine large scale revolt we would probably see these massacres take place but on an even larger scale

 

[Quinkana]

Also as others have said creating an armenian state in 1894 would require a lot of changes in the decades before, id say it would probably have to take place during an ottoman civil war or an invasion by russia, the ottoman armenians were numerous but they were spread thinly across anatolia in a patchwork of villages and towns, which often intermixed with kurdish turkish and alevi communities.

I think I'm trying to ask 'How would Armenia forming a state in the late 19th century around Ciliicia and lake Van?'. I'm willing for events for the 19th century to change although I'd think events like Greece and Serbia seceding from the Ottoman empire are very plausible and would occur. WWI will be very different and will occur at different timescales definitely.

 

[Mightyboosh5]

I think I'm trying to ask 'How would Armenia forming a state in the late 19th century around Ciliicia and lake Van?'. I'm willing for events for the 19th century to change although I'd think events like Greece and Serbia seceding from the Ottoman empire are very plausible and would occur. WWI will be very different and will occur at different timescales definitely.

The thing is i think you need to pick either Cilicia or Lake van as the place where a state is formed, armenians just dont have the population base to hold both of those territories, it would give them a truly vast unmanageable amount of land to protect from the ottomans/kurds

I think cilicia is possible if france intervenes the way they did in lebanon in 1864, the ottomans could encourage armenians to move from the highlands to cilicia as its further from russian influence.

lake van region id say could become armenian state but as i said before would have to take place during some kind of civil war or crisis within the ottoman empire or a russian invasion.

 

[Quinkana]

I think cilicia is possible if france intervenes the way they did in lebanon in 1864, the ottomans could encourage armenians to move from the highlands to cilicia as its further from russian influence.

I'd think France and England would be helping with Armenian Cilicia (personally I'd think Armenian Cilicia is more plausible than a Lake Van one since an Armenia not in the Caucasus would only be possible through Western intervention). I'd think that Armenia would at first be a protectorate of France with English counterbalance ensuring Armenian Cilicia wouldn't be a colony. I've no idea how would the rest of Armenia fare but I think it's very possible that if Armenia successfully halfway industrialises before 1910 (and would always be trying to balance France and Britain) at the alt first Balkan war Armenia would take land up to Russian Armenia and at an alt treaty of Sevres Armenia would take Trebizond and be repelling a Turkish attack while Greece tries for the Megali plan, which should be successful bar some insane thing happening (a king randomly dying is an insane event). Ittl Armenia would be quite powerful with it controlling coastline in the East med and the black sea, with Greece most likely being an important and powerful ally of Armenia.

I'd think Armenia ittl would have better relations with the Assyrians and Levant Christians than the Muslims, and would hate the Turks and Kurds which would be very interesting. The Kurds will most likely be pushed from their homes which would be very different from otl.