Oh dear. I failed to pay attention to the fact that all this was happening in 1830 and within a few years after!
Seeing it posted after the whole American war had come and gone and not bothering to think about the dates liberally sprinkled through the post, I was thinking it was happening 15 years later than it did.
Which fortunately has little bearing on anything I said except the stuff about Britain being distracted.
The reason William is ruling Hannover very actively is that it's all he's got, with his sister being Queen in Britain. I'd think the British would tend to veer in whatever direction Hannover favors regarding German politics at that point because the two monarchs are such close kin. Which might not matter much to Parliament and Prime Ministers but I'd think it's easier to stay on top of British politics with a happier monarch to deal with, so if royal preferences also happened to be sensible national policy the Queen gets an informal, unofficial and plausibly denied deciding vote if there's a close division.
No, 1830 is much too early to be foreseeing Prussian hegemony and the portents of the Great War! Besides I'd think most Britons would assume if there were a Great War scheduled for the early 20th century that Prussia and Britain would be on the same side, or anyway it would be a coin flip--I don't think there was a lot of animosity.
Prussia was an ally of Napoleon of course and were involved in deposing George III from the throne of Hannover, as far as Napoleonic writ, which ran things in Hannover until 1814, was concerned anyway. (George III never acknowledged losing the throne, and was awarded it back at the Conference of Vienna). By the time Napoleon went down both OTL and ITTL, the Prussians had changed sides.
I think if you want Belgium to split off, that's a plausible enough result; a lot of my thinking that meant Prussia goes down completely was based on thinking their position had been weakening for some 15 years longer than you were saying.
I'm not sure they looked all that strong in 1830 OTL. The biggest German realm after Austria, but not the obvious nucleus of a Pan-German state.
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Ok I went fishing in the old posts and
found the post where you announced Prussia gets Belgium (It's number 377, October 27 2009!). Here's a
Map of post-settlement Europe ITTL by Thande, who also posted one of OTL for comparison in the next post.
For a couple days after this the European situation was the main buzz of the thread, then I guess it has been largely forgotten for something like 2 1/2 years, the chief architects and advocates of this settlement now long banned. It is interesting to read over the comments over the next couple pages, then the timeline shifts back to its main focus in America and unless someone else remembers another flare-up of the discussion there it rested.
I note, comparing the two maps, that in addition to Belgium, which was contiguous with some northwestern German territory the Prussians had, the Prussians also get another Atlantic port, a little blob of gray on Thande's map I don't believe was ever discussed; is it Bremen? OTL they didn't get that yet, maybe not until 1866. At least it's German, and Protestant. Maybe that's apocryphal?
Also Austria, unlike OTL, retains various blobs of middle Rhenish territory.
Dathi at the time remarked that he foresaw an ideological split, based on the fact that victory over Napoleon did not require the close orchestration of all the Coalition powers at Waterloo, so the various victorious parties rather quickly diverged toward a state he characterized as "Cold War." Russia and Prussia tending to band together as absolutist states, Austria remaining attached to the more liberal powers for some time but eventually switching sides.
Now those Austrian blobs are kind of interesting in this context. Also of course having got Word of God like that on where this is all tending (Dathi could of course have changed his mind on the subject in the past two years plus!) that Prussian blob, that I'm guessing is Bremen, is rather awkwardly situated from the point of view of northwest Germans resisting Prussian attempts at hegemony!
Dathi having said (long ago) that it will be a liberal vs absolutist split, greatly reinforces the idea that Britain will favor Hannover out of sentimental and perhaps very shrewd reasons. Hannover is the fourth biggest German realm, counting Austria as one--Austria, Prussia, Bavaria, then Hannover. And we're being told now Hannover is in the middle of the schemes to form an alternative to a Prussian-dominated
Zollverein. William is king there and is focused on that realm, his sister Charlotte having survived and preceded him to the British throne. The path to unify Prussia's western possessions to the main body in the east lies either right through Hannover, or getting control of that odd little realm painted white on Thande's map that separates the main body of Hannover in the north from a detached piece south of it; I'm guessing that's one of the Hesses. Prussia gaining it outright, or just getting a strong sway over it, would be inconvenient for Hannover! (But maybe not implausible; it isn't clear to me why it wasn't merged into Hannover in the first place, presumably because its ruling house would object! If it stands aloof from Hannover that might suggest a history of rivalry that might turn them very naturally to a Prussian alliance?)
Meanwhile the coalition, which both from looking at the map and because I happen to sort of know where Oldenburg is, is indeed a Northwest German one, one that might be characterized loosely as an Alliance of the Lower Rhine.
OTL, Berlin itself became a major industrial area, and Silesia (which ITTL the Austrians get instead of the Prussians, much to the dismay of many commentators) with its coal and iron resources, was important, but by and large the heart of German commercialism and industrialism was along or near the Rhine I believe. So a coalition commanding the mouth of the Rhine and the lower river region would I think be pretty much a natural for early adoption of industrialism--not as much, as early, as I believe Belgium was OTL. But by the 1830s I think these very regions were indeed beginning to industrialize (and the personal experiences of it shaped the characters of both Karl Marx and Friedreich Engels).
So if this part of Germany can be seen to be getting its act together, under the liberal guidance of monarchs like William, if perchance William's silver tongue has persuaded his neighbor monarchs (presumably not always easy to get to band together, otherwise the region would have been united long before and not fallen piecemeal to Prussian expansion) to agree on parallel rules for commerce and industry (that is, the Steuerverein), the region collectively could become very attractive for British commerce and investment, firming up the sentimental tendency to ally with them. Or at least favor them. Of course the coalition is also forming around a nervous eye on Prussia which (up to 1830 anyway) flanks them on three sides (counting that ambiguous blob on the North Sea!) Again I'd think that even nascent commercial prosperity forms a tax base on which to build a respectable coalition army. Dash and elan might be provided by persuading the various Hesses to get on board--OTL and since I'm talking about the 18th century here, one or more of them were famous as the home of mercenaries, which is where George III got the "Hessians" the American revolutionaries were fighting.
Is it crazy for me to think this coalition might be organized with an eye toward the US Constitution--which, being a pro-British and presumably eventually Delian coalition, would say looked actually to the New England Constitution
--with William setting the minds of the various other ruling houses at ease with institutions analogous to the Senate, where the "Senators" are the monarchs, in principle in person, more usually their hand-picked ministers, and a careful checking and balancing of the various principalities with reasonably strong coalitional powers? Perhaps the "chief executive" being a commoner (or at any rate, non-royal noble) minister chosen by the monarchs in committee, to avoid the question of which king and house is the supreme one of the coalition. In principle, it isn't a union like the United States (of OTL, if you accept the views of people like Abraham Lincoln that I do that Americans are one people, sovereignty derives from all the American people together and not from the states) but more like what the State's Rightists say the USA should be--the various realms are indeed separately sovereign, they've just pledged to a compact of convenience that I'd rather hope accretes into a de facto unbreakable union, but one where the princely states within it remain distinct. But irrevocably pledged to work together!
Dunno if William would dare to have such a vision in his lifetime, but if he and the majority of other northwest German sovereigns get used to working together for mutual benefit it might seem inevitable in hindsight. And eminently liberal and progressive!
OK, now such a coalition will clearly stick in the Prussian, and perhaps even Austrian, craw on ideological grounds, and is a clear roadblock to Prussian ambition (even on a small scale, not imputing Bismarckian vision to anyone there yet). Conflict is inherent.
We're told there was an uprising in the Prussian "Rhine province." What is the Rhine province? It looks to me, looking at Thande's map, that it is most likely to be the eastern part of the block of land that is Prussia's Western detached territory including Belgium. If that's the case, they are in danger of losing the whole block at once, to have it split up, part of it becoming Dutch-supported Belgium, part of it becoming nominally independent German principality or principalities--but any such would be obvious and natural candidates for membership in the Steuerverein coalition!
Is the Rhine province instead that sort of diamond-shaped other detached bit just barely touching on the main Prussian territories somewhat to the southeast?
Meanwhile what happens to the Prussian bit on the North Sea, and for that matter what of the Austrian holdings in the southern part of northwest Germany?
The initial Steuerverein confederation seems likely to be very much Protestant. However, with a federal rather than absolutist structure of union, presumably there will be little problem admitting Catholic principalities; religion is clearly a matter for the separate realms, there's no need to proclaim one church predominant over the whole as there would be on a Prussian or even British model; if there were one monarch that monarch's confession would confer a special status on that denomination and raise all the issues of religious establishment so lively in British politics, and indeed that is still happening locally in each realm, but for the coalition, in the liberal and progressive spirit, these things need not matter on the level of the whole. De facto, religious minorities in each realm would enjoy some protection and advocacy from princes of their own faith or near it ruling other realms, so everyone plays nice.
So, perhaps in the early 1830s, the Steuerverein confederation wins a decisive victory (with no declaration of war and no exchange of fire between Prussians and
uniformed members of the coalition armies though there may be clandestine aid on a substantial level) and costs Prussia everything in the west. Belgium not being German they bid the Belgians a fond farewell in the care of their Dutch neighbors, grab up the eastern part, that is the more German part, as a new realm or many smaller ones who join the Steuerverein, and maybe even persuade the Bremeners or whatever that North Sea blob is to throw out the Prussians too. This makes the Prussians angry, but the British are backing the Rhein-mouth side and the Prussians don't reckon they'd better go to war. But now there's pressure on the Austrian possessions in the region. How realistic is it that the Steuerverein can negotiate trade policy agreements and friendly terms with the Austrians? In another timeline I'd want to pursue that maybe, but here we're foretold the Austrians will break from their liberal erstwhile allies and line up with the Prussians and Russians. The Steuerverein disrupting their hold on those northern possessions and then scooping them up as new members, perhaps their first substantially Catholic ones, would certainly be a plausible turning point.
The upshot is a small but economically dynamic liberal northwest German power. It's small on the geographical scale of the sprawling Austrian domains, or OTL Prussian-built German Empire, or compared to France. But compared to nations like Denmark, the Netherlands, or Belgium it's quite a respectable size already. Who knows how far up the Rhine they might reach, if they do a fair job integrating Catholic realms into the coalition? Bavaria and that smaller kingdom to the west of it (I think that's Baden-Wurtemburg, right? But then I can't identify the one to the west of that at all--is that BW, and between them is Swabia?) might hang on to independence indefinitely, if they are determined not to be subordinated by Austria. The Prussians will be scheming to put a stop to Steuerverein expansion but they are at a disadvantage the farther the latter reaches south, into Catholic country. They might also try a revanchist frontal assault on the northwest German heartland of the movement sometime by and by, but by then I'd hope the confederation will have proven its worth, and with economic development and the growth of a sort of collective patriotic sentiment for the alliance, the northwesterners defend themselves creditably, leading to a firming up of the borders, Steuerverein NW Germany increasingly seen as a unified nation on one side and Prussia consolidating itself as NE Germany on the other; to the South the Austrians are contained by their OTL borders with Bavaria.
Perhaps the absolutist East, with Austria increasingly firming up it's long-term alliance with Prussia and their borders being settled once for all too, manages its own approach to industrial development. I'm picturing Prussia developing a form of top-down state capitalism, not entirely unlike the manner Russia developed but somewhat more effective due to Germany's higher degree of development.
If Austria is increasingly on the "wrong side" from the British point of view, I guess the British wind up supporting Italian ambitions against Austria, whether or not that implies Italian unification.
It seems to me that if we have an Emperor's bloc to the East (except the King of Prussia would be seen as very presumptuous to call himself an Emperor!)--well I don't think that's enough for the sort of Grand Alliance shenanigans that can lead to a Great War. Perhaps France somehow follows a course that brings her in on the Prussian-Russian-Austrian side? The Germany France might be worried about would be Steuerverein Germany!
This is a rather grim long-term prospect for the plucky and rich Northwest Germans, since on the scale of 20th century campaigns analogous to ours, they lack strategic depth, up against both France and the combined vastness of Russia, Austria and Prussia!
The trenches of a GW analog, assuming military tech is at the trench-war level by then would most likely be on NW German soil.
The USA by the way, I don't see having a lot of opportunities to get tempted into "playing" at territorial nibbling while the British cat's away--because while if the Prussians can indeed develop economically, and perhaps help Russia and Austria do better economically than they did OTL while they are at it, they can field some pretty massive military hammers to swing at the Steuerverein, I don't see any of them developing a navy worth mentioning. Combined Prussian/Russian enterprise might manage to build a lot of ships based in the eastern Baltic and fire them like a shell out of a cannon at Steuerverein-allied forces in the west Baltic and maybe even fight their way past Denmark somehow into the North Sea, but then they'd be up against the RN. Presumably in southeast Europe, the liberal powers will seek to check Russian and eventually Austrian ambition, which would tend to progress first against the Turks and then as a scramble for hegemony over any countries taken from the Turks. But if Russians and Austrians, backed by Prussian industrial production (and increasingly developing their own) can coordinate their campaigns, I think we can see them prevailing despite British, Steuerverein, and who knows who else helping their foes. Say the Black Sea becomes a Russian lake, and even that they get control of Constantinople and the whole Bosporus, what then? Again they can fire fleets like shells out of a gun into the Aegean, to confront the RN there. Can the Austrians, against the opposition of the British and their friends (including anti-Austrian Italians) get a naval base on the Adriatic, and again force anything out of its narrow waters into the wider Med?
Well, maybe I've outlined the eventual Great War--a massive clash in northwest Germany, Austrians trying to push west to the south, and the attempted naval breakout on three fronts coordinated to stretch British naval resources to the limit and try to sap their strength to aid the Steuerverein Germans.
What about Denmark by the way? My "source" on the opening of Danish waters, by the way, is an offhand remark by a not-entirely-reliable narrator in Poul Anderson's
The Corridors of Time. From what I remember of it, it probably happened fairly late in the 19th century. ITTL, the Steuerverein will be relying on British help if they get into serious naval difficulties.
If Denmark can be attracted to ally with the Steuerverein, or even conceivably join it, and if they stay reliably affiliated with the British, I guess Britain will uphold Danish claims of sovereignty over the waters, as long as it's understood that as friends of Britain the RN will be waved through whenever they want.
If on the other hand Denmark for some reason winds up opposed to Steuerverein, and thus tending to link up with the Prussians and/or Russians (and in lots of threads, people remark that the Danes were generally very accommodating of the Russians OTL) then it might get uglier. Then again, it's the Prussians and Russians who need the straits open; Steuerverein ports include some on the Atlantic side and that's the way trade will probably tend to flow.
If the Prussians and Russians have a lot of wealth (maybe not on a per capita basis, but Russia has a lot of heads to count; Prussia I suspect could keep pace with Western Europe, or anyway be not too far behind in general terms and neck-and-neck as far as high tech military hardware goes) to offer an absolutist Danish king, and the Danes still resent British high-handedness during the Napoleonic wars, and fear Steuerverein ambitions on their southern border, can we see the eastern Baltic powers subsidizing Danish shore defenses to the point that the RN can't force their way through? Then the Baltic absolutist domains might well dominate the Baltic--presumably the Steuerverein would respond with building its own Baltic fleet, and seeking alliance with Sweden--even if the Swedes can't trade through the Danish straits they can in time of peace trade across the Baltic to eastern Steuerverein ports, which puts them in contact with global trade via their western ports.
So maybe even without France, the eastern absolutist alliance can indeed present itself as a credible rival to the RN on the high seas. If they are convincing enough, can they entice foolhardy Usans to join them in a grand breakout?
Even if France evolves more or less as OTL into a liberal republic, it conceivably could wind up allied with these Eastern powers against Britain and Steuerverein. Say the Steuerverein entices some or all of Alsace and maybe bits of Loraine to secede from France and join them, while France is in some terrible internal crisis. But the French won't be revanchist against a powerful Imperial Germany that is surpassing them in industrial might and sheer population; the Germany they hate would be much thinner and weaker, and have on its east both Prussia and Russia! If the French can keep the Belgians and Spanish neutral and hold their own against Italy, while defending her shores against RN landings, they can concentrate on the German front.
By the way, it might be just as likely the revanchism is on the other side--if France is fairly strong during the "scramble for the heart of Germany" period, when Steuerverein schemes against joint Prussian/Austrian ambitions to scoop up the smaller German states east of France, the French might intervene and wind up claiming stuff east of the Rhine.
