Land of Flatwater: Protect and Survive Middle America

[Dunois]

I am still curious what the experts say, but my educated guess is, that concerning the United States we would end up with 10,000 warheads exploding on its soil.

That is 1 NUDET per 962 km². Is that a lot or not?

300 nukes on the UK would mean an average of 1 NUDET per 816 km², a rather similar result.

Assuming that 1MT bombs are used.
We know that the destructive radius of a 1MT bomb is roughly 20km and I even define destruction as encompassing a knocked out windows here.
A = pi x r²
A = 3.1416 x 20²
A = 3.1416 x 400
A = 1256.64 km²

Mathematically therefore, 10 000 nukes on the USA or 300 nukes on the UK would be sufficient to create a lot of destruction in the entire areas of said countries.
But we do know however that megaton range weapons have not been the main weapons used, at least in Europe (the USA will be hit by higher yield weapons however, as ICBM warheads are larger and more powerful on average). We also know that a significant amount of targetting would be redundant in case of failures and that some targets might be hit as much as ten or fifteen times (New York).

Consequently, and especially in the light of the fact that I have been using the higher end of the estimate for the damage radius, we can reliably expect that mathematically large areas of Britain, the United States or for that matter Germany, will be free of blast and thermal damage and will only have to content with fallout.

I will also restart that debate, but we must not forget that even if the USSR has 40 000 warheads in storage, it does not have enough missiles, planes and submarines to deliver even a third of this stockpile.

For weeks now, I have been reasearching the net to find an old interview I read in "Der Spiegel" about a decade ago. My attempts, however, were futile. So, without evidence, I have to bring the key points back from memory.

The paper interviewed an US military official who had taken part in the post-cold-war "cleaning up" of nuclear target lists during the 1990s.

He stated that most of the "streamlining" was simply being accomplished by taking redundant or targets of minor importance from the list. As an example for the latter he claimed "bridges in Siberia". From his point of view a clear example of the overkill of the late cold war. "There were so many warheads available, we hardly could imagine what to do with them."

He also confirmed the interviewer's suspicion that multi-targeting of important cities in the Soviet Union went in some cases beyond ten warheads. He didn't confirm the interviewer's suspicion that it was the Ukrainian capital Kiew.

Well, these are about the parts of it I remember. If anybody is more lucky with providing the interview... good luck.

I think that the overtargeting of cities is far far more likely that hiting up bridges in the middle of the Kolyma in my opinion. Moscow has likely recieved a hundred warheads from all the NATO allies. The same story is true for St Petersburg and certainly for Kiev as well. One thing worth remembering as well, is that the Soviet Union had a penchant for building up huge complexes and huge factories to meet the needs of their planned economy. The giant lorry factories in the Urals are the best example of this. Said facilities constitute targets in themselves. Whereas ten smaller factories are not necessarily strategic targets on their own.

Oh, I don't know, he's been pretty civil so far. Besides, constructive criticism is good for keeping people on their toes. If everyone were going "great job" then it'd be easy for one to start believing in their own hype, and then things go downhill. For examples of this, see: Slade, Stuart "TBO, Salvation War".

I have been the first one on the various Protect and Survive threads to criticise and point out what I felt were gaps or omissions. I was however always careful to back up my assertions with arguments, chiefly numbers where possible and sometimes links to other studies made by people who had far more time on their hands than I do now.

Someone involved in emergency planning in Britain (corditeman) also made numerous criticism and felt that in some cases Macragge timeline was too pessimistic, especially with regards to the mutated babies (something I too feel won't happen on a massive scale).

Having worked in SAC is not an automatic badge of expertise, especially if said work has bene very compartementalised and very narrow. The fact that someone works say in the HR department of an oil refinery, does not mean that this person is going to be an expert in oil refining or even to know anything about it. Similarily the fact that you know to operate the refinery and how the various processes work, does not mean that you will be the best person to hire new workers, or to decide where and when the products should be sold.

There is a saying which says that the map is very different from the reality on the ground. A 1MT nuclear bomb will have different effects depending on whether or not it has been dropped on London, Paris, Los Angeles or Kinshasa. In particular, there is a lot of evidence ponting out to the fact that an Hiroshima sized bombs would be far less destructive if dropped on a European city. Japanese houses are built of wood and paper, European ones of stones and cement ...

 

[Chipperback]

A very interesting discussion.

"especially with regards to the mutated babies (something I too feel won't happen on a massive scale).

Why wouldn't this happen on a massive scale. I'm of the opinion that it would on a much greater scale. Whenever you deal with radiation, you deal with possibility of genetic damage. I see a lot of babies "not coming out right".

I will say, that I am enjoying this discussion on both sides. I'm taking a lot of what is being said here into account as a research the next step forward, and I'm sure the other authors are as well.

One thing I have been doing is getting in touch with more people who have the expertise I don't have in a lot of key areas, especially in regards to EMP, fallout, agriculture, infrastructure, etc.

I'll admit that there are elements of LoF that will be "optimistic". The set up of the "Emergency Government" is highly optimistic, given how emergency management works in the USA in some cases.

It is by design in a sense. I wanted to ask the question: "How would a cohesive plan work IF you can get a majority of the key political, industrial and scientific people on board and get the citizenry on board?" GOLDENROD, like any civil defense plan depends on a lot of key pieces working in sync as one unit. In an American political system, that is process equal to trying to run a cattle drive full of baby kittens.

" Examples of past breakdowns of society and civilization in warfare, pandemic or natural catastrophe situations. Examples of people being unable to survive of starvation diets."

An example -- Plague pandemic in 14th century (yeah, that "Black Death" thing...over half the population of the continent wiped out, it took 150 years+ to get the population back to what it was, and during that 150 years you had unrest at every level. Political, economic, religious. Its that is a extreme case and it cause a number of breakdowns, maybe not a total meltdown of society, but enough to alter it for almost 2 centuries.

Nuclear war would be another extreme case. This isn't just some tornado going through a farm community (and I have some experience with those). Even a localized disaster causes some breakdown, even with aid coming in from the outside there's going to be dislocation. There will be disruptions. I lived that disruption a few weeks ago, thanks to a freak snowstorm, and compared to Hurricane Irene it was not as bad.

But Thermonuclear war? That's a whole different deal. I am of the firm belief that you can prepare for it but ultimately, you going to lose a lot of people, you are going to lose a lot of material infrastructure that infrastructure will make a severe dent. That's not "overly pessimistic" that some common sense. And that isn't just me talking, that's what CD planner have said for 50 years, including the planning official one of my fav characters is based on.

If you launch the number of weapons that Kinkster's talking about? You'll have a serious global problem. A lot of the data I've seen and read point to his way of thinking.

1. People -- Will you have enough skilled people still alive and functioning? You might have tracks and trains. Do you have people to fix them? Do you have people to run them? Do you have people who can make the parts to fix them?
And its more critical at the levels beyond the material things. Trained medical personnel will be critical, and not just physical health (this is a subject I will definitely tackle). Trained mental health people will be even more valuble.

Also to be considered: Can you make more people? Will people want to make more people?

And within people, there is the critical question of leadership. Plans are only as good as the people who run them.

2. Infrastructure -- How much of the means to get people and needed materials around will be around? How much movement are we really going to do?

"The effect of disasters over the last, say, ten years (both in the US and abroad) seems to, in my honest and not all that well informed opinion, suggest that a global thermonuclear war would probably destroy civilization, if only in the Northern Hemisphere. People aren't as competent as all the survival plans need them to be, and compassion and humanitarianism would probably be in very short supply.

Well Prole...To quote Winston Smith " If there is hope, it lies in the proles"

And most of us regular folks are "the proles".

And based on what I've seen in many disasters great and small, "the proles" are far ahead of the "Inner Party" and "Outer Party" folks when in comes to help in times of trouble. I have found more often that neighbor- helping-neighbor often does a lot more good than "official" folks who aren't up to speed.

It is this ideal that gives me hope in my fellow human beings, because I've seen it up close. The reason you may think that people may go completely "every man for themselves" in a major disaster is in part because that is what the news footage shows and unfortunately what our pouplar culture has made a fetish out of (One of major reasons I dislike shows like "Survivor". Cutthroat types are the last people I'd want to share a post-attack foxhole with. They are the people that insure no one survives.)

Compassion and humanitarianism are in ample supply, especially when you deal with that first part of your statement.

"People aren't as competent as all the survival plans need them to be.

The strength of any plan is the people, and the strength of the people lies in how well the plan is thought out.
In talking to people who dealt directly with civil defense, they said one of the biggest problems is the matter of information. A lot of people aren't getting the information they need to know when they need to know it in many cases. That isn't so much of a problem now, but it was an issue at the time when the timeline took place.

People can be competent if you give them the information to execute, and people who know what to do and how to do it, tend to want others to know. The more competent the group surrounding you is, the better chances for your individual survival in any situation.

I'm a firm believer in the concept that a cohesive, common sense- driven, collective is a better bet to make it through a disaster than so-called "rugged individualists".

I find that many "survivalist" types are death-worshipping bullshitters. In a real emergency, those folks are going to run for the hills or put themselves in a situation where they are isolated and easy pickings for those who will run amok and prey on people.

My pessimistic thought surrounds the other side of coin in regards to people. It may be a sci-fi cliche, but I believe that an extreme emergency will breed open criminal element that will take advantage of a situation where organized rule of law is sporadic or non-existent. Being it the highwaymen of medieval times, outlaws in the 19th century American West, the "thieves in law" of the Brezhnev period and post-Soviet Russia, or the current white collar gankstas in our financial institutions of the world. If the door is open to a lax state of legality, somebody will walk through that door and those people tend to be smart enough to realize that there is definite strength in numbers. A lesson that well-meaning, decent people never quite catch on to as much as they need to.

 

[Dunois]

Why wouldn't this happen on a massive scale. I'm of the opinion that it would on a much greater scale. Whenever you deal with radiation, you deal with possibility of genetic damage. I see a lot of babies "not coming out right".

Chip, the available evidence of numerous mutations on human babies as a result of radioactivity is simply not there to back up claims that mutations will occur on a massive scale like in Threads.
A LOT of childbearing age mothers were exposed to radioactive fallout from Chernobyl in Russia, Belarus and the Ukraine. The result has been that while instances of horribly mutated babies do exist (I please ask anyone who dig up some pictures, not to post them here as they are extremely disturbing). They only represent a tiny percentage of all childbirths in the affected areas. We are not even talking about 1% here, but more about 0.1% or 0.05% of the total number of births!
Horrible deformations like hyrocephanly, acromegaly or Harlequin babies occurs naturally at very low levels anyways and there is actually some doubts as to whether the cause of the mutations in photographs of Chernobyl babies can actually be traced back to fallout from the plant itself.

What I expect to happen to pregant women is a lot of miscarriages and premature labour. Some babies will eventually be delivered when they should be, some of these will have malformations but as I said I expect these to be very much a minority.

Regardless and considering the fact that fallout from nuclear weapons decays much faster than fallout from a meltdown. I very much expect mutations to be limited in time to the first twelve to at most eighteen months after the strike.

We also have to bear in mind that radioactivity in small amounts might actually be beneficial to your health, this is a process called radiation hormesis. Essentially small amounts of radiation act as a stimulant to your imune system, encouraging it to work better. The evidence from place with a high level of background radiation seems to confirm this hypothesis so far. But the debate is far from over.

I'll admit that there are elements of LoF that will be "optimistic". The set up of the "Emergency Government" is highly optimistic, given how emergency management works in the USA in some cases.

It is by design in a sense. I wanted to ask the question: "How would a cohesive plan work IF you can get a majority of the key political, industrial and scientific people on board and get the citizenry on board?" GOLDENROD, like any civil defense plan depends on a lot of key pieces working in sync as one unit. In an American political system, that is process equal to trying to run a cattle drive full of baby kittens.

I can't say that I disagree here and to be fair this will be the case in most Western nations. Organisation and clear leadership are two very important things, regardless or whether it comes to organise a trip down to Disneyworld or to lead society to recovery after nuclear attack.

An example -- Plague pandemic in 14th century (yeah, that "Black Death" thing...over half the population of the continent wiped out, it took 150 years+ to get the population back to what it was, and during that 150 years you had unrest at every level. Political, economic, religious. Its that is a extreme case and it cause a number of breakdowns, maybe not a total meltdown of society, but enough to alter it for almost 2 centuries.

I am glad that the Black Death is finally discussed here!
The Black Death killed half of the European population, three quarters in some areas even and wiped entire villages out of the map. But it did not lead to a complete breakdown of low and order and of society.
Physical destruction was part of the package as well in some areas at the same time. Indeed while the Black Death took its tool, it is worth remembering that the Hundred Years war was in full swing in France at the very same time and we are talking about a near middle ages equivalent of the Thirty Years War here. It can be argued that France came very close from collapsing at that point, with Ecorcheurs (a rough translation would be skinners) roaming the countryside and killing everyone and burning villages. Yet a total breakdown did not happen. In fact, Europe was back on the upswing mere deaces after said wars and plagues.

But Thermonuclear war? That's a whole different deal. I am of the firm belief that you can prepare for it but ultimately, you going to lose a lot of people, you are going to lose a lot of material infrastructure that infrastructure will make a severe dent. That's not "overly pessimistic" that some common sense. And that isn't just me talking, that's what CD planner have said for 50 years, including the planning official one of my fav characters is based on.

I don't disagree with this as you know, but there is infrastructure and infrastructure. The air travel infrastructure is gone, the car culture is gone, but train travel is still a possibility for the future. The rail network is a giant spider web with loads of redundant connections after all.
CD planners and studies on the effects of nuclear war, all agreed that parts of the rail infrastructure would survive.

If you launch the number of weapons that Kinkster's talking about? You'll have a serious global problem. A lot of the data I've seen and read point to his way of thinking.

The 10 000 warheads will be dispersed alongside worldwide targets and concentrated in certain areas over others.

1. People -- Will you have enough skilled people still alive and functioning? You might have tracks and trains. Do you have people to fix them? Do you have people to run them? Do you have people who can make the parts to fix them?
And its more critical at the levels beyond the material things. Trained medical personnel will be critical, and not just physical health (this is a subject I will definitely tackle). Trained mental health people will be even more valuble.

Also to be considered: Can you make more people? Will people want to make more people?

That's where the beauty of technological "gearing down" comes in my my opinion. Telegraphy is easier to operate and maintain than telephony or internet connections for example.
As long as a single small rail depot survives there will be enough personnel to repair and maintain the existing rail infrastructure. A lot of knowledge will also still be available in books, in libraries, schools and smaller colleges as well.
Examples do abound of people being more or less forced to learn new skills and occupations at war time. A very important thing the emergency government will have to do, is to effectively spread needed knowledge and skills down to the general population. The post war society will need more metal workers, carpenters, mechanics and so on but a lot less bank managers, theatre producers and so on.
Doing this might seems like a daunting challenge, but I think that it might actually turn out to be a lot easier than we imagine. The reason for this is simple, there will be no televisions, almost no radios, no video games and a lot less "fancy" forms of entertainment post war. Reading will once again become the main form of individual entertainment. It is not too far a stretch to imagine down the line that both in order to relieve boredom and to spread out useful skills. That large scale adult education/retraining could be an answer.

On the same topic, I think that evidence points out that schools would be reopened as soon as practicable wherever this is possible. It will relieve the parents of having to care for the childs while out working during the day, help morale and cohesion especially between existing communities and refugees. Mass feeding the kids will also be far more efficient than leaving their parents feeding them.

And within people, there is the critical question of leadership. Plans are only as good as the people who run them.

That's the key factor indeed and I speak as someone with a bit of leadership experience here. It takes very little for efforts to be ruined, either through incompetence, but also through selfish greed. I bet that post strike there will be plenty of small chiefs endorsed with authority, who will be ruling their own little fiefdoms like middle ages lords. Getting themselves a larger share of the food, commodities and very likely female companionship too. Sad, but it will happen.

2. Infrastructure -- How much of the means to get people and needed materials around will be around? How much movement are we really going to do?

Whatever petroleum is left in depots, stations and such will last for some time. But eventually a skeleton network of national infrastructure will needs to be reestablished.

And based on what I've seen in many disasters great and small, "the proles" are far ahead of the "Inner Party" and "Outer Party" folks when in comes to help in times of trouble. I have found more often that neighbor- helping-neighbor often does a lot more good than "official" folks who aren't up to speed.

It is this ideal that gives me hope in my fellow human beings, because I've seen it up close. The reason you may think that people may go completely "every man for themselves" in a major disaster is in part because that is what the news footage shows and unfortunately what our pouplar culture has made a fetish out of (One of major reasons I dislike shows like "Survivor". Cutthroat types are the last people I'd want to share a post-attack foxhole with. They are the people that insure no one survives.)

Compassion and humanitarianism are in ample supply, especially when you deal with that first part of your statement.

That's why I am broadly optimistic as well to be honest. I would even go as far as saying that down the line nuclear war will have the huge positive effect of re-instilling a VERY strong community ethos. Even when food supplies become abundant once again, binning bread or leftovers will likely be hugely frowned upon for example.

The biggest initial problem will be cooperation between existing populations and refugees. A carrot and stick approach will need to be adopted here.

The strength of any plan is the people, and the strength of the people lies in how well the plan is thought out.
In talking to people who dealt directly with civil defense, they said one of the biggest problems is the matter of information. A lot of people aren't getting the information they need to know when they need to know it in many cases. That isn't so much of a problem now, but it was an issue at the time when the timeline took place.

I actually think that on some levels, getting the information will be easier then than it is now. Too much information gets dispersed nowadays on too many medias. Witness for example the use of twitter and facebook to spread information, when these will very likely end up spreading misinformation rather than information.

People can be competent if you give them the information to execute, and people who know what to do and how to do it, tend to want others to know. The more competent the group surrounding you is, the better chances for your individual survival in any situation.

I'm a firm believer in the concept that a cohesive, common sense- driven, collective is a better bet to make it through a disaster than so-called "rugged individualists".

Agreed!

I find that many "survivalist" types are death-worshipping bullshitters. In a real emergency, those folks are going to run for the hills or put themselves in a situation where they are isolated and easy pickings for those who will run amok and prey on people.

There are a lot of wankers in the survivalist community that's for sure. A lot of these with bad intentions will very likely end up being the "lords over a fiefdom" I talked about earlier.

My pessimistic thought surrounds the other side of coin in regards to people. It may be a sci-fi cliche, but I believe that an extreme emergency will breed open criminal element that will take advantage of a situation where organized rule of law is sporadic or non-existent. Being it the highwaymen of medieval times, outlaws in the 19th century American West, the "thieves in law" of the Brezhnev period and post-Soviet Russia, or the current white collar gankstas in our financial institutions of the world. If the door is open to a lax state of legality, somebody will walk through that door and those people tend to be smart enough to realize that there is definite strength in numbers. A lesson that well-meaning, decent people never quite catch on to as much as they need to.

A reason why there is a lot more criminality in society nowadays than before, is because let's face it, enforcment is either too lax or a joke.
Here on the other hand, there will be no room for compromise. Putting someone in a stock with a sign saying "I took the food of others from a depot". Will be VERY effective on its own, let alone coupled with canning or lashing.

Now I agree that this is very harsh, but it will work and that's what matters!

 

[sloreck]

Having been a military MD for a long time let me chip in on radiation induced mutations. Bottom line is not many. As another poster said, you will see more miscarriages, pathological examination of the fetuses would probably show a statistical increase in "mutations", however a lot of miscarriages occur because of nonviability of the fetus (the "blighted ovum") and because most miscarriage products of conception are not examined pathologically how many of them are "blighted ova" is just an estimate. Suffice it to say major mutations surviving to full term are likely to be few. Also remember that mutations will occur either due to damage to sperm or ova in a parent due to radiation damage in the germinal stage, or ONLY during the first 3 months of pregnancy when differentiation is occurring in the fetus. After the 3rd month there is growth, but essentially differentiation is finished (other things can go wrong but not really mutations & would require a major discussion to deal with).

Most likely result of radiation exposure will be a reduction of fertility due to reduced viability of sperm and ova. Don't forget that malnutrition and other "normal" diseases will cause either reduced fertility (women who get too thin stop menstruating for example) or an increase in fetal mortality during pregnancy of "normal" fetuses. Plenty of literature on the effects of malnutrition and chronic disease on fertility/birth rates even before you get to third world levels of infant (post-birth) mortality.

FWIW there are several diseases that, if contracted by a pregnant woman at the right time can cause malformations - one example being Rubeola (German Measles) which is a reason to try and get vaccine production back as non-immune/non-immunized women enter reproductive activity. By mid 1980's birth defects due to German Measles were way way down due to immunization, but there was a pool of reproductive age women who had not been immunized, and younger girls who were also susceptible although immunization was pushed at an early age.

Most radiation effects are long term - if you don't get a lethal does, or enough of a dose to knock your immune system for a loop so that a "normal" disease does you in, your major risk will be some sort of cancer (esp leukemia & thyroid) but this is down the line. The major immediate problem will be that radiation exposure makes other injuries/diseases worse - healing of wounds & fractures is delayed, infection more likely, immune responses diminished etc. Medical services will need to estimate (and there are ways to do this) radiation doses of any sick & wounded when evaluating them for triage - significant but nonlethal radiation dose may make you expectant rather than treatable even if your "wounds" would be treatable category without radiation.

This is the ultimate "mass casualty" situation and triage will be brutal, and the need for effective and appropriate triage will be absolutely vital or things will become a complete cluster. IMHO doctors with significant military experience, whether veterans, reservists, or active duty will be like diamonds not for their clinical skills per se but for their ability to manage and understand triage and field medicine.

Just my 2 cents - hope this helps.

 

[JasonQ]

I find that many "survivalist" types are death-worshipping bullshitters. In a real emergency, those folks are going to run for the hills or put themselves in a situation where they are isolated and easy pickings for those who will run amok and prey on people.

I've hung out on a survivalism board or two, and that's a pretty good summary of a lot of the mentalities I've encountered. Not all by any means - I've run across a healthy percentage of folks who are community-oriented. Mormons are a great example of a group that has a broad survivalist streak but still have a good sense of community.

But unfortunately, there are a lot of full-on misanthropes, paranoid loons, and borderline sociopaths with superiority complexes in the survivalist community. I do so enjoy arguing with them, however.

 

[tom]

The Simplification

In view of the horrors unleashed in this TL, will there be a rise of neo-luddite movements? "Science and Technology did this to us" when of course it was human fear and ambition that led to the war. Burning libraries, killing engineers, and erasing progress...could this occur in the future? Is there any precedent of a man-made disaster on this scale (the Black Death was natural) that would give us an idea?

 

[Chipperback]

Land Of Flatwater: Update Day.

I'm still working on a lot of maps and things..But During the day today...I'm going to have a little fun.

Mini-updates throughout the next 12 hours or so...Little snippets of what's to come.

BASE ECHO – Beatrice, Nebraska – Tuesday February 21, 1984 7:00pm/0100 ZULU Wednesday February 22, 1984

”This is…..Management……Olney…….alpha emergency message….Tango-Romeo….Niner….Surviving forces……officials……rally…..Walla….Say again….Federal Emegency….Tango-Romeo…..contact…….Navy…….

”What are you getting on that,” Greg said to one of the national guard communications troops.

”Don’t know,” the troop said. “Its really garbled. I’m getting maybe every 10 words.”

Greg scrambled two patch cables from the troop’s radio link and attached them to one of his recorders.

”If it a repeating message,” Greg said. “I want to record it.”

”I repeat….Olney…..Tango…..Niner…..gathering……Walla…contact…..escorts…evacuation…continuity function…President…”

”The message stopped transmitting,” the troop said.

BASE FOXTROT – McCool Junction, Nebraska -- Decontamination Barracks – Tuesday Feburary 21, 1984 7:30pm/0130 ZULU Wednesday 22, 1984

Lieutenant Todd Trofholz sits behind a shield of lead-lined glass and concrete, still trying to come down from the intense high of the battle hours before.

He was still in his Phantom. He was still flying for his life.

He looked at his right arm, imagining where the flight suit was. Taped to the right wrist of the his flight suit was a picture of the love of his life.

Colfax County Hospital – Schuyler, Nebraska – same time
”We can’t allow anyone to move into the hospital from the outside yet,” the Doctor said. “Radiation levels are too high.”

Cyndi Trofholz was in the shelter looking at the numbers. It was more than 7 hours since the first nuclear weapons slammed into targets in Nebraska. Over 5 hours since the first fallout dust landed.

”We are at about 75 rads an hour,” Cyndi said.

The Sheriff was on the other end of the radio, “75 rads? It could be a lot worse.”
”That number could climb sir,” the doctor said back. “Have we heard anything outside of the Colfax County area.”

”Static mostly,” the Sheriff said. “We’re getting the news piecemeal. The national guard detachment at Norfolk reports that the Air Guard fought with some Soviet bombers…out near North Platte. They took out some electric plant there,”

One of the other nurses covered her mouth in horror. She had family in North Platte.

Cyndi was afraid, too. “Did we lose anybody?”

”According to the guardsmen in Norfolk, we knocked down one of their bombers, but they two got two our fighter planes.”

”I pray to God that Todd was nowhere near that,” Cyndi thought.

”Nurse Trofholz,” the Doctor said.

”Yes, Doc?”

”We need to finalize the triage procedures. We need to do that tonight.”


National Emergency Airborne Command Post (NEACP) E-4B “Guardian” – 40,000 feet above Omaha, Nebraska – same time

Captain Glenn Harper looked down through the camera images and the surviving satellites photos.

There was horror on the ground below.

Omaha, Nebraska was engulfed in a firestorm that snaked for 35 miles. Even after 7 hours, the fire still burned bright enough to see from outer space.

Downtown Omaha was unrecognizable. The Woodmen Tower? Gone. City-county building? Gone. Police headquarters? Gone. Omaha World-Herald building? Gone.

Mutual Of Omaha? Gone.

Underneath Omaha are thousands of bodies burnt beyond recognition. The high heat of the combined nuclear blasts turned most of the shelters that Walt had painstakingly rebuilt into ovens.

The only buildings left intact were to the west of the city. Westroads Shopping Mall still stood. Inside was the dead and the dying, even in the cavernous underground shelters.

”Anyone….Anyone listening….Help us!! This is Omaha….Omaha, Nebraska…We are in shelters underneath the Westroads Mall….Please…anyone out there….Please respond….We need help…

Not far from the Westroads…More explosions. Gas mains. Gasoline stations. Reserve tanks..exploding under the heat and pressure.

”Emergency! This is Sapp Brothers..near US-50….We are transmitting from Omaha, Nebraska…PLEASE, HELP US!!!!! Omaha is completely destroyed….So many dead….We have survivors…please respond…

The voices mixed in with so many from around the country, trying to punch through the interference caused by thousands of nuclear warheads. Many of the frantic voices are living on borrowed time.

”This is Imperial, Nebraska….If anybody is out there…I have an atmospheric report. Radiation levels are severe here. We have received some blast damage…Minuteman silos in proximity have been destroyed. The Russians went for every silo between here and Hemingford…My God….What have we wrought on His Earth?

”This is Lake McConaughy, Nebraska….We are holding at 80 rads per hour. All residents are underground, but we’re not sure if we’ll make it. So much heavy fallout from the damn missile bases…The Soviets blew the hell out of everything west of Ogallala….Radiation readings near the bases are much higher I’m sure. We received some radio traffic that the Russians took out one of the hydro plants. I pray they didn’t.”

Lincoln, Nebraska – same time

As Omaha burned. Lincoln stood abandoned. The nuclear death did not hit here. The warhead detonated 35 miles southeast of Nebraska’s capitol. The streets were empty though, save some stray dogs and cats and a smattering of refugees here and there. The fallout came down looking like snowflakes descending on the town. The silence was jarring for the few souls trying to find a place to stay safe. Even from here, you could see and feel the embers from Omaha in the distance.

”To anybody out there…This is the University of Nebraska-Lincoln….or what’s left of it. There is a group of us…underneath Memorial Stadium. We are sheltered here. Requesting any news you have. Please…please respond….please..”

This is Nebraska, Tuesday February 21, 1984. This is nuclear war in the Land of Flatwater.

 

[Hörnla]

Honestly, Colonel... You've been criticizing the entire P&S-universe for quite some while now. All added pleasantries considered, it is their story. What you do is compare your knowledge of nuclear weapons OTL with fiction.

But I think that everybody has the right to do this criticism as it is fiction based on actual history - that is until the POD which is in 1983, not early enough to reduce the number of strategic systems. So if there are only 3500 warheads hitting the US, there needs to be an explanation for this. And any discussion is valid as long as nobody goes beyond the boundaries of politness and reason.

I welcome criticism in this direction (not only the Kinkster, but also Obsessed Nuker) because we need a counterweight to me, Dunois, me and others.

We also know that a significant amount of targetting would be redundant in case of failures and that some targets might be hit as much as ten or fifteen times (New York).

Consequently, and especially in the light of the fact that I have been using the higher end of the estimate for the damage radius, we can reliably expect that mathematically large areas of Britain, the United States or for that matter Germany, will be free of blast and thermal damage and will only have to content with fallout.

"only fallout". Well, but generally that is my idea, too. Every multi-targeting, every failure leaves a few hundred km² undestroyed. These numbers would add up. In Germany, though... Yes, my nuke map with 500 circles still leaves a lot of landscape behind. But 500 is a very low estimate.

My idea is that the least bad place to be are "rural" pockets of survival. Places with high social cohesion, too far away to be easily swamped by survivors, with a certain agricultural base. It is not as if these places would be unaffected, also, conditions there would be far worse than in "Jericho"; but that depiction of a place is a good comparison.

I will also restart that debate, but we must not forget that even if the USSR has 40 000 warheads in storage, it does not have enough missiles, planes and submarines to deliver even a third of this stockpile.

Very interesting, can you elaborate on this?

I think that the overtargeting of cities is far far more likely that hiting up bridges in the middle of the Kolyma in my opinion.

Well, 100 is a lot, even by MAD-standards... By the way, the interview stated that the idea behind hitting bridges was to "reduce the transport-network's efficiency by 80%". That was certainly not high on the priority list. But while on is at it...

One thing worth remembering as well, is that the Soviet Union had a penchant for building up huge complexes and huge factories to meet the needs of their planned economy. The giant lorry factories in the Urals are the best example of this. Said facilities constitute targets in themselves. Whereas ten smaller factories are not necessarily strategic targets on their own.

Funny, I just came to the same conclusion a few days ago, that this factor would favor the capitalist states when it comes to recovery. While even a smaller factory can be a target - you just cannot hit them all. And this different economic structure makes it more likely that even "small rural pockets of survival" have some small, but valuable industrial base.

And that brings me back to the railway-discussion. Bringing transporation back to life is not a sign of a recovering society showing off - it is a necessity before you can come back even to a third-world-economy.

The quesions any sort of community or administration has to ask itself are:

- how do we stop our folks from dying as much as possible

- how do we keep them fed in the short, medium and long run

- how do we get the food distributed

- how do we keep them from killing each other

then

- what can we provide to others which might make them give something back to us

- what do we need to produce that?

- where and how do we get that?

- how do we keep this links safe; then how do we safeguard our new "prosperity"

The funny thing is, post-apocalyptic America will probably be more socialist than before, while post-apocalyptic Russia will be more capitalist.

Japanese houses are built of wood and paper, European ones of stones and cement ...

Errr.....yes. But we all collect enough flammable stuff to add to the initial fireball. Ask the people in Dresden or Hamburg; firestorm is firestorm. The photos afterwards look different, though. So you have no iconic "nuclear dome".

Why wouldn't this happen on a massive scale. I'm of the opinion that it would on a much greater scale. Whenever you deal with radiation, you deal with possibility of genetic damage. I see a lot of babies "not coming out right".

Yes, but bear in mind that the (female) body discards of "damaged" offspring in most cases. So while "mutations" will certainly happen on a greater scale than OTL, the "epidemic" thing will rather be miscarriages during the first trimenon.

For the rest, I can very much imagine a "sanitized" version of the Spartan ways coming up.

In the longer run, if sonography keeps being developed, the 21st century will see a lot of abortions. Despite probably more conservative societies, I very much trust that the discussion on this topic (as much as on euthanasia) will be a lot different.

An example -- Plague pandemic in 14th century (yeah, that "Black Death" thing...over half the population of the continent wiped out, it took 150 years+ to get the population back to what it was, and during that 150 years you had unrest at every level.

Now, please. Do you mean the Renaissance which in Italy started rather shortly after the Plague, despite Florence suffering an 80%-death rate? Do you imply that the 150 years prior to 1350 were substantially less violent?

However, the Black Plague killed only about a Third of the European population. In places more, though - 80% in Florence.

The Plague is a good example when it comes to short-term consequences of mass-death. Studying European history in the longer run afterwards, though, leaping towards global domination, gives you an almost utopian example of recovery.

1. People -- Will you have enough skilled people still alive and functioning? You might have tracks and trains. Do you have people to fix them? Do you have people to run them? Do you have people who can make the parts to fix them?

I would say that you tackle a real problem concerning the rail as well as road-infrastructure here. All the intercontinental links rely on the foundation of urban centres being connected by them and their economic power financing them. In the long run, the shrunken economy will hardly allow the maintenance of these systems.

Also to be considered: Can you make more people? Will people want to make more people?

In the first question, we are back again at things I could only speculate at.

If there is one thing which stops people from raising children, then, oddly as it is, it is wealth and the expectation of a long life. I know enough people born in years where no reasonable person would have wanted to be pregnant or raise a small child. Whereas I live in a time where the average woman in my fatherland gives birth to 1.4 children in her life. I wouldn't want to live anywhere else, because life in Germany is quite good actually. But I wouldn't mind to see more kids around.

The harsher and less colourful life for the (long-term) survivors becomes, the less alternatives for pleasure and entertainment are there, the more common is the thing where you only need a man and a woman for.

And society will surely run out of artificial contraceptions, soon. In the longer run, birth rates will be sufficient, if people don't become sterile in masses. They should actually be high enough, I presume, that they will still be sufficient if you euthanise mutated babies.

And within people, there is the critical question of leadership. Plans are only as good as the people who run them.

I think that the matter of leadership will in most places be handled in a rather uncomplicated way, being passed on to those appearing most able. You don't have to cut some incompetent guy's throat, but neither does it take years of impeachment trials...

The reason you may think that people may go completely "every man for themselves" in a major disaster is in part because that is what the news footage shows and unfortunately what our pouplar culture has made a fetish out of

Compassion and humanitarianism are in ample supply,

I agree. I would rather trust spontaneous self-organizing survivors than any administration with going on with life. I am not an anarchist, but our specialized and complicated bureaucracy is not the tool to handle an apocalyptic situation efficiently.

A lesson that well-meaning, decent people never quite catch on to as much as they need to.

Another example for the importance of information.

We also have to bear in mind that radioactivity in small amounts might actually be beneficial to your health, this is a process called radiation hormesis. Essentially small amounts of radiation act as a stimulant to your imune system, encouraging it to work better. The evidence from place with a high level of background radiation seems to confirm this hypothesis so far. But the debate is far from over.

Talking about optimism.

The Black Death killed half of the European population.

Rather a third, AFAIK.

　

 

[doublegoodprole]

Dear People-In-The-Know:

Is there any hope for short-term survival in the Haverhill, MA area? If I have to die in a nuclear war, I at least want to survive the initial blasts.

Thank you,

Someone who was around 3 years old at the time

 

[JasonQ]

Dear People-In-The-Know:

Is there any hope for short-term survival in the Haverhill, MA area? If I have to die in a nuclear war, I at least want to survive the initial blasts.

Thank you,

Someone who was around 3 years old at the time

Looking at a map, you'd stand a decent chance of surviving the initial blasts in Haverhill. That's assuming you didn't catch a stray warhead -the high number of targets in that area leads me to think your chances of doing so are higher than average.

Beyond that...no guarantees. You'd have to have a good fallout shelter.

Being so close to Boston and Portsmouth wouldn't be helpful (about 30-35mi to either, according to Google Maps). There'd be a lot of fallout no matter *which* way the wind was blowing. Portsmouth in particular is gonna get clobbered, what with a naval shipyard and an AFB in the same town. Springfield, too. Big base there at the time.

Sorry to piddle in yer Wheaties, dude.

 

[doublegoodprole]

Well, all's fair in love and global thermonuclear war.

 

[nijntjepluis]

But I think that everybody has the right to do this criticism ...

Completely agreed. But I do *not* smoke 'that fine crack' and I do like it if someone explains his/her reasoning instead of just saying "Believe me, I'm an expert."

But off with this.

Originally Posted by Chipperback
Also to be considered: Can you make more people? Will people want to make more people?

I had quite a decent discussion with my wife and some of her friends about this which resulted in a lengthy series of posts in the original P&S thread.

Medically: as sloreck MD mentioned, most mutated fetuses will die during pregnancy and there will be a LOT of miscarriages.

Psychologically, that's a different matter. People all over the world (including the most awful places) still have babies. Part off that is sex being a good way of letting of steam and forging emotional ties, part is that (as I understand it) women want to have babies. Friend of ours can't and she feels her role as woman is thereby incomplete. Another friend had three miscarriages but still carries on trying, massive depression included.

Nutrition is hardly an issue too - even if the infants aren't fed by the gouvernment. Women can breastfeed their kids for about six years and in case of emergency, FEMA et al even encourage this because it's the safest way of feeding babies, requiring only minimal extra calories for the mother. Ask modelcitizen

In the words of my wife: "We want to have babies. It's our most basic role. We'll repopulate the planet, even if we don't mean to. You just make sure I can do so safely."

 

[nijntjepluis]

Afterthought: we believe society will fall -in part- back to a previous version. Yes, women will have babies. Yes, we will have families.

Look at the Aboriginals, Masai, Maori, Papoa people. The live in extended families. The point of this is to improve survival chances - if a man or woman dies, his brothers, sisters, cousins etc are close by to pick up support for the kids. Also, people tend to cluster close together in times of trouble, for emotional and social support.

There will be, we guess, extended families of 30-50 people, maybe even polyamories (check Heinlein on that ) living in a big 'longhouse'. Quite normal if you leave the Northwestern hemisphere, OTL.

 

[Chipperback]

Land of Flatwater: Where's Tony?

Réserve Nationale de Chasse de La Petite Pierre, France -- Wednesday February 22, 1984 -- 0230 ZULU
　
A day before, they were the centurions standing at the gates. They were a piece of the defense of Europe.
　
Ten hours ago, they got the general order: "Retreat. Evacuate. Multiple NUDET! Multiple Inbound!"
　
Tanks. Trucks. APCs. Didn't matter. They ran for what the commanders dubbed "parlez vous". Those who would pull back would run to France.
　
Tony Freeman was one of those. Scared and shivering in a French national forest/game preserve.

The tank boss, 2nd Lieutenant Bill Michelle, was sleeping on the covered bed of one of the military trucks. He was hurting. He was bleeding. As they retreated from Germany, they were straffed and attacked by Warsaw Pact rockets. The team that comprised "Yankee 3-1" lived, but Yankee 3-1 was left as a burnt out wreck on the Germany countryside. 2nd Lieutenant Michelle hobbled out with a broken ankle.
　
Tony's friend and dance club rival, Com Specialist Ricardo Brown, still had his radio. He was working with the British and French troops they escaped with. They were putting their heads together. Trying to figure out how contact any surviving forces.
　
Each man had their gunners in the back of their minds. They had two of them in this war. The first one, Staff Sargeant Kevin Lashar, was injured on the first day of the war, and taken to a military forward hospital in France. The other, Sargeant Timothy O'Hanrahan was lying dead in Germany.
　
They were entering France when the war went strategic. They eventually drove into this forest and bunkered in. Along the way they saw the mushroom clouds in the distance. Mannheim. Karlsruhe. Stuttgart. Strausbourg. It's a wonder this forest stands at all.
　
Each man protected by their NBC gear, but they still feel they may be walking dead men. All of them. By this time, there may be a few hundred men representing several NATO armies, gathering around campfires among this trees.
　　
Tony sat alone. Slumped against a tree in a sleeping bag. It was the first real rest he had gotten since the start of the war. Sharing the campfire with a group of soldiers, and pilots who had to bail out as they escaped.

There were still units across the Rhine, in West Germany. Even after the bombs have fallen. You can hear the faint whistle of artillery. There was still fighting amid the ruins and dead bodies.

One of the other fighting men looked at Tony. "Seems like you haven't closed your eyes much in awhile," he said.
Tony looked grim. He wanted to sleep but couldn't. "I've been sleeping with one eye open since this started...It's strange. This should be over now, but it doesn't feel that way."

"What makes you think is over soldier?" the other man said.

"Why wouldn't it be now," Tony asked. "They've pushed all the damn buttons. It's over."

"You really think the war with the communists ended just because we blew each other to smithereens?" the soldier replied.

"What communists are left?" Tony asked. "Seemed to me a lot of the communists are dead or dying in West and East Germany...Just like we are."

The brewing debate was interrupted, but the radio guys..After rewiring and rigging up a stronger long range radio, they were picking up something..

"This is........country has been attacked......severely disrupted....We shall bring you......own homes."


".... La France est dans un état de siège......attaquée.....armes nucléaires...... rayonnements sont dangereux"

"Still a lot of interference," Ricardo muttered.

"I think I could make out the last frequency," the other radio op said. "That was home for me, mate. That was Peter Donaldson."

Two others perked up, "Wartime Broadcast Service," one of the British troops said.

"At least you fellas are close to home," Tony said.

"If there's a bloomin' home to return to," the British soldier continued. "I'm from Southgate, Greater London...I think the Reds took that out."

The same troop looked to Tony. "How about you, where are you from.."

Tony's voice turned grim again. "Omaha...Omaha, Nebraska. My hometown probably didn't make it either."

"You think they blew up Omaha?" Ricardo asked. "Why would the Russians blow up a town in the middle of nowhere?"

"Most likely," one of the USAF pilots said. "Strategic Air Command is based just outside there."

At that moment, they could hear jet engines in the distance. There was a growing sense of panic.

The pilot tried to detect what kind of jet it would be. The engine pitches of Warsaw Pact jets was different. The trees could shield the surviving troops from being seen, but not from being bombed.

"ALL FORCES. FIND COVER!"

 

[nijntjepluis]

Wow, great update! Just what I asked for thanks! Wonder what they'll do, I really feel for them (being an armchair tanker).


I wonder if the fighting stops when the bullets run out... Is there a resupply system in a case like this, after the bombs started falling? I sort of think ammo gets low quickly, then what?

small nitpick:
".... La France est dans un état de siège......attaquée.....armes nucléaires...... rayonnements sont dangereux"
(or maybe I correct the wrong things )

 

[Wolf]

Great updates Chip! I almost felt tears in my eyes as I read them.

 

[Dunois]

Very interesting, can you elaborate on this?

Here is a source I and others have mentionned earlier with regards to the USSR capabilities in terms of vectors.

In 1984 the USSR had the following number of warheads:
ICBM: 7 135
SLBM: 2 140
Bombers: 756
Total Strategic: 10 031
Non Strategic warheads: 27 400

More details as to the precise type of ICBM warheads is available here.
It is very interesting to see that the bulk of the USSR warheads will be carried by SS18 Mod 4 missiles. According to wikipedia the yield of the MIRV warheads carried by these missiles was 0.5 MT.

The only Soviet missile capable of carrying 20MT warheads was the SS18 Mod 3 and these were all phased out by 1984, not that that therre were many of them to begin with. This means that while the massive "giant nukes" used on Omaha and Brussels, won't be used very often to say the least, if they are even used at all. Using 0.5MT bombs in a triangular pattern would devastate targets as well if not better.

We are left with 27 400 non strategic warheads of various sorts now. There are only two means to deliver them and that is planes or missiles like the SS20. Wikipedia says that 654 SS20 were built and all the other sources that I have been able to get agree with this figure. The SS20 could deliver three warheads, so that's 1912 deliverable warheads.

We are still left with over 25 000 warheads and while fighter bomber planes can conceivably deliver about a thousand of these, especially in Germany to provide tactical support to the forces on the ground. We are again left with a pretty large number of warheads which can't be delivered and likely won't be delivered at all!

How on Earth the Soviet Union can deliver more than 10 000 warheads is beyond me. Simply because it is physically impossible for them to do this. They don't have enough vectors!

Considering the fact that the yield of SS20 warheads is 150kT, I would also not be surprised at all if Brussels, Paris, London and the French missile silos have actually been hit with ICBMs coming all the way from Siberia. The strategic nature of these targets warrant larger warheads (1 MT) used in multiples.

Talking about optimism.

You might laugth, but there is actually a debate going on about radiation hormesis. The French National Academy of Medicine even seems to agree that the idea has some merit.
I sit on the fence here, as I have said earlier I think that radiation is something that desserved to be respectfully studied like any other dangerous phenomena. Even if the hormesis hypothese is proven untrue, further study might lead to new ways to cure radiation sickness for example.

Rather a third, AFAIK.

I varied greatly between various areas, Italy and France were harder hit than Poland for example.

Réserve Nationale de Chasse de La Petite Pierre, France -- Wednesday February 22, 1984 -- 0230 ZULU

...

".... La France est en état de siège......attaques.....armes nucléaires...... les rayonnements sont dangereux"

Alsace-Lorraine is going to be one of the worst hit areas of France, the best bet for these guys is to hunker down in crude shelters for a week and then to go west, carefully avoiding Nancy, Metz and such. Once they reach Champagne country, things should be better (the area is actually called the French desert for its sparse population).

I can imagine that surviving American, Canadian and for a time British units will be at the service of the surviving French government for some time. It will be a welcome contribution to keep law and order, especially as the entire countryside of the Parisian bassin will be flooded with refugees, walking deads and such from the ruins of Paris.

The earliest I can see Tony being back in America is 1986 or probably 1987 or 1988 if not later during the nineties depending on what happens to him in France.

 

[basileus]

Here is a source I and others have mentionned earlier with regards to the USSR capabilities in terms of vectors.

In 1984 the USSR had the following number of warheads:
ICBM: 7 135
SLBM: 2 140
Bombers: 756
Total Strategic: 10 031
Non Strategic warheads: 27 400

More details as to the precise type of ICBM warheads is available here.
It is very interesting to see that the bulk of the USSR warheads will be carried by SS18 Mod 4 missiles. According to wikipedia the yield of the MIRV warheads carried by these missiles was 0.5 MT.

The only Soviet missile capable of carrying 20MT warheads was the SS18 Mod 3 and these were all phased out by 1984, not that that therre were many of them to begin with. This means that while the massive "giant nukes" used on Omaha and Brussels, won't be used very often to say the least, if they are even used at all. Using 0.5MT bombs in a triangular pattern would devastate targets as well if not better.

We are left with 27 400 non strategic warheads of various sorts now. There are only two means to deliver them and that is planes or missiles like the SS20. Wikipedia says that 654 SS20 were built and all the other sources that I have been able to get agree with this figure. The SS20 could deliver three warheads, so that's 1912 deliverable warheads.

We are still left with over 25 000 warheads and while fighter bomber planes can conceivably deliver about a thousand of these, especially in Germany to provide tactical support to the forces on the ground. We are again left with a pretty large number of warheads which can't be delivered and likely won't be delivered at all!

How on Earth the Soviet Union can deliver more than 10 000 warheads is beyond me. Simply because it is physically impossible for them to do this. They don't have enough vectors!

Considering the fact that the yield of SS20 warheads is 150kT, I would also not be surprised at all if Brussels, Paris, London and the French missile silos have actually been hit with ICBMs coming all the way from Siberia. The strategic nature of these targets warrant larger warheads (1 MT) used in multiples.



You might laugth, but there is actually a debate going on about radiation hormesis. The French National Academy of Medicine even seems to agree that the idea has some merit.
I sit on the fence here, as I have said earlier I think that radiation is something that desserved to be respectfully studied like any other dangerous phenomena. Even if the hormesis hypothese is proven untrue, further study might lead to new ways to cure radiation sickness for example.



I varied greatly between various areas, Italy and France were harder hit than Poland for example.



Alsace-Lorraine is going to be one of the worst hit areas of France, the best bet for these guys is to hunker down in crude shelters for a week and then to go west, carefully avoiding Nancy, Metz and such. Once they reach Champagne country, things should be better (the area is actually called the French desert for its sparse population).

I can imagine that surviving American, Canadian and for a time British units will be at the service of the surviving French government for some time. It will be a welcome contribution to keep law and order, especially as the entire countryside of the Parisian bassin will be flooded with refugees, walking deads and such from the ruins of Paris.

The earliest I can see Tony being back in America is 1986 or probably 1987 or 1988 if not later during the nineties depending on what happens to him in France.

I had made a painstaking work of tracing nuclear targets in France adding circles of widspread damage around major urban and industrial targets, ports, airports and airbases, but thanks to the idiotic way of saving the work of the ite I was working on, part of it got simply lost. Anyway, most of it I copy/pasted and salvaged on a file that I put in .kml for viewing in Google Earth. Get it here: http://depositfiles.com/files/1ir0j4b3o
I assume about "only" a hundred NUDETs over metropolitan France, enough to plaster any relevant target and to permanently alter the country's history, the major surviving town would be Montpellier, about 200,000 at the time. Alsace would be hit more heavily than the rest of the country, as Lorraine, due to more military targets (bases). AFAIK, the area Chip mentioned (La Peti-Pierre, Alsace) was in a hit area, though, only 6 miles north of a massive (megaton-range) strategic-denial hit at the Saverne gap.

 

[Unknown]

Tony's still alive. Didn't expect that (though it makes sense they'd try to evacuate when things got out of control).

Looking forward to the next mini-update.

 

[Hörnla]

In the words of my wife: "We want to have babies. [...]"

And men, too, actually. Well, maybe not particularly babies, but offspring to carry our wonderful genetic material into the future.

We are still left with over 25 000 warheads and while fighter bomber planes can conceivably deliver about a thousand of these, especially in Germany to provide tactical support to the forces on the ground. We are again left with a pretty large number of warheads which can't be delivered and likely won't be delivered at all!

If we simply assume these numbers to be accurate and part of the POD we would have quite an explanation for the considerable, yet not ELE-like destruction in the P&S-universe.

You might laugth, but there is actually a debate going on about radiation hormesis.

Oh, I laughed but I took you fully serious.

I varied greatly between various areas, Italy and France were harder hit than Poland for example.

Yes, it is very interesting to see how the casualty rates can be so extremely different from one region to another. Most parts of Germany got off comparatively lightly, too, but the main centres of trade with abroad by ship suffered very much: Cologne on the Rhine, as well as Hamburg and Bremen on the coast.

The earliest I can see Tony being back in America is 1986 or probably 1987 or 1988 if not later during the nineties depending on what happens to him in France.

I think that very much depends. If he has to rely on the re-establishment of intercontinental travel, he might have to wait that long or longer. But if Gen Patton commandeers the surviving carrier group to collect veterans of WW3, he might get home earlier.

Under French command? I am not sure about this. It sounds very untypical for the French to do that. But they will certainly try recruiting for the Foreign Legion...