Land of Flatwater: Protect and Survive Middle America

Definitely. A small example: a spontaneous calculation concerning France.

55 million inhabitants pre-exchange, assuming it got away "lightly", 20 million afterwards once the number of survivors has stabilized by 1990.
Interesting France gets off "lightly" but still loses almost 2/3rds of it's pre-exchange population.:eek:
 
Definitely. A small example: a spontaneous calculation concerning France.

55 million inhabitants pre-exchange, assuming it got away "lightly", 20 million afterwards once the number of survivors has stabilized by 1990.

Assuming a steady 1.5% increase throughout the 90s, 2000 sees 24.3 million Frenchmen. Even if we assume a very high increase of 3% annually henceforth (very few countries math that), 55 million won't be surpassed prior to 2028. Doing such a calculation with 4.25 million survivors in Germany, pre-exchange level of 77.7 million can be reached by....2094. This doesn't take migration, in or out, into account.

My guess would rather be that if these regions develop a certain standard of living again (not necessarily pre-exchange, but comparable), birth rates would fall and population numbers in the Northern hemisphere might never reach 20th century numbers again.

Actually and that's something I am researching for the French spin off, I am increasingly sure that the French population will not drop below 20 million after the strike even when taking into accounts the effects of famine and civil disorder.

The Paris region will be utterly destroyed that's for sure, but I expect that at least a fifth if not a third of the population will evacuate the area for the surrounding countryside. Said countryside will not be a target outside of military bases and highly strategic towns and cities. The worse off part of France will be the northeast especially Alsace, Lorraine and Nord Pas de Calais regions. The concentration of military installations and strategic industries coupled with the relative proximity to the front just make these regions ripe for large scale attacks.
The Greater Marseilles and Greater Lyons area will suffer too, as they will likely both get megaton size hits. But the communities around them will be fine and will only have to wory about fallout.

Western France will look like paradise in places because there is nothing of interest to target in for example Brittany apart from Brest and Rennes. What will really help here as well is that some of these regions are hugely agricultural in nature, Brittany by itself has almost 90% of the French pork production, the Loire Valley produces a third of the national grain production (half of which is exported during peacetime). On paper, feeding the survivors won't be a problem at all and another big thing here will be the fact that a significant proportion of the population will remember war time rationning and.

The huge issue affecting France will energy supplies, chiefly petroleum supplies. There will be enough surviving nuclear power stations to take care of supplying electricity. But petroleum will be a huge issue, since most of it is imported either by pipeline or by boat and said boats are unloaded in harbours which will be prime strategic targets (Marseilles and Fos). There is some domestic oil and gas production in France, but it won't even cover a quarter of the much reduced needs. Refining will also be a huge issue, since most installations unlike in Britain where close to large cities and harbors.
 

Falkenburg

Monthly Donor
This is awesome writing, I keep finding myself taking a few minutes in work to check for updates!

Tremendous!:D

Welcome Bedhead.
You couldn't have chosen a better set of Threads to get started with than the Protect & Survive Series. ;)

Falkenburg
 
The news of the Soviet response will come out right before Kerrey addresses the state.

Cue Mass Oh, Crap:eek: (even by those who remain calm on the outside).
 
Land Of Flatwater: Where were you at 1155 ZULU? part 3

Stetten, West Germany Tuesday February 21, 1984 1415 ZULU

The tank was fixed, at least as much as they could. Yankee 3-1 could get back in the fight. The crew looked like moon men now. Everybody was in Nuclear-Biological-Chemical protection, per their orders.

Just another day in World War III

NUDET! NUDET! NUDET! NUDET!

”All forces alert! All forces alert!”

8:30am CST/1430 ZULU
We have received another report of a nuclear explosion in Germany. CBS News received a confirmed report from the Reuters News Agency that a second nuclear device was detonated over the West German city of Kassel.

BASE ALPHA/Geneva, Nebraska – 8:35am CST/1435 ZULU

This is Nebraska Public Radio – The time is 8:35am…The following is a live address from Governor Bob Kerrey.

Lieutenant Joseph Robert Kerrey, United States Navy, retired. Lincoln, Nebraska.

Bob Kerrey figured he would be a pharmacist. That is what he went to college for. He ended up being a Navy SEAL, a leader of men, a war hero, and struggling through 8 months of rehab trying to adapt to having one leg.

A life can change a lot in a short amount of time. He went from wounded in Vietnam, to businessman, to reluctant drafted candidate, to surprise election winner.

And now he’d have to reassure Nebraska just minutes after another mushroom cloud arose over a worried world.

Good Morning, fellow Nebraskans, I had a speech all written for this, unfortunately, the news of the last few minutes forced some changes. The loss of a second German city in nuclear fire is shocking and frightening for our world, and our troops abroad. If you have not heard already, a second nuclear device was used on the city of Kassel, earlier this morning a nuclear weapon was dropped on an installation at Eschwege.

Roedert family home – Kearney, Nebraska

A group of people are coming over to clean up a vandalized lawn as they listen to the radio. They were mostly college-aged, many were high school friends of Gayle Roedert. And many others were neighbors upset about a burning cross and wanting to help….and perhaps get the autograph of the hero of Nebraska's Orange Bowl victory, who just happened to be Gayle's fiance.

” a second nuclear device was used on the city of Kassel,”

”Did he say, Kassel?” Cheyenne, Gayle’s best friend queried. “Kassel?...”

Cheyenne immediately began to feel fear. She began to shake..

”Are you alright,” Gayle asked. “What’s wrong?”

”Gayle…My brother…in the Air Force…He’s was doing something with the headquarters staff….He told me he was in Kassel…”

Cheyenne began to cry. For her, the war had come home.

The news abroad is grim. The possibility of an escalation is a present threat. With that in mind, effective immediately, the following emergency steps will be taken.

1. Interstate 80 will be restricted to essential traffic ONLY effective 10 am Central Standard Time. What this means is that all non-essential traffic will have to get off of Interstate 80 at the nearest exit. There will be national guard and state patrol at the exits, from there you will receive directions to the nearest FEMA or NEMA processing area. You must register within the area control points to receive identification cards, ration cards, and immediate aid.

2. Effective immediately, the State Emergency Broadcast System is activated. All essential information will be broadcast through Nebraska Public Radio and filtered to individual stations statewide that participate in the State EBS system. All transmitting television stations are a part of the state EBS system and will continue to provide official information for their areas.

3. National Guard, State Patrol and Law Enforcement will go under the direct command of the Governor’s office directed through the Nebraska Emergency Management Agency. All said forces are on the highest level of alert for duration of the emergency.

4. All major highways, airports, waterways and railways are under direct state control per the 1984 Emergency Continuity Act.

These steps are not designed to make Nebraska a police state. Our state still adheres to civil law designated by State Emergency Operations Plan 1984 and still operates within the oversight of the Constitution of the United States and the Constitution of the State of Nebraska.

BASE DELTA/Evacuation site for the Unicameral -- Concordia College – Seward, Nebraska

The Man was listening intently to the Governor.

”We still have a functioning state judiciary and a functioning state legislature. We are taking these steps to provide and protect our citizenry in the most efficient manner possible.”

”Are we really functioning Governor? You could have fooled me,” Senator Ernie Chambers smirked.
”No kidding,” Senator John DeCamp agreed.

30 minutes after this address, all broadcast stations in the state will run a special emergency program in addition to the special pamphlet that has been sent to every household in the state over the last two weeks. It is designed to help you prepare for a nuclear attack. If you haven’t built or sought shelter and made arrangements in terms of food and first aid, you must do that NOW! Should things deteriorate, the information contained in the pamphlet and in the broadcast we will run could save your life and the lives of your loved ones.

Our state government, along side the emergency management agencies, local governmental bodies, private business and citizens have come together over the last two months to build systems to help as many Nebraskans as possible through this emergency. Do not hesitate to utilize these services.

With this in mind, there are some additional situations that have occurred here in Nebraska that I wish to draw your attention to.

FEMA Emergency Registration Post – Norfolk, Nebraska

”Here in Nebraska, we have built a reputation as a people who help each other in times of trouble. We believe in the concept of being our brother’s keeper. It is who we are.”

Long lines of refugees. Away from home and scared. Many fleeing the missile silos and SAC bases in South Dakota and Sioux City. A few traveling from Omaha. Hurry up and wait.

Volunteers move from line to line. Anything to keep things going efficiently. National Guard and police are mixed in to keep order.

”I know the wait is long,” the man said. “I can understand. It can be confusing and full of things that don’t make sense…kind of like the hotline with Reagan and Ogarkov.”

A few people in the line giggled. One guy was frowning, “Pipe down, buddy!” He said rudely.

The FEMA volunteer wasn’t fazed. He turned calmly to the man and said. ”May an unclean radiologist replace your Geiger Counter with Pop Rocks.”

A few more people giggled.

He moved from line to line getting people’s names and filling them in. Anything to help speed up the process…

”Your name sir,” the volunteer said shyly.

”Art…Art Mitchell..”

”Art…okay,” The man said…”Hello Feature Film freaks! Art Fern here with today’s FEMA film find. Jack Parr, Jamie Farr, Ravi Shankar, Sandy Duncan, Sandy Vanocur, Sandy Koufax, Ronnie Reagan, Monachem Begin, Soupy Sales and Nikolai the Russian Jackass in… – Will This Line Ever End?”

More of line was lost in laughter, a little bit of joy amid fear, as the man moved down the line to take more names on his clipboard.

”Where did that volunteer come from?” One of the FEMA clerk asked.

”A local..He started helping here a few days ago. He's been keep us in stitches.”

”What is his name?” the clerk took a long look at the cheerful volunteer. “He looks really familiar.”

”I remember he said his name is John.”

For a split second there was a twinkle of recognition. “Could that be?.....Nah! Couldn’t be him.”


On Monday, I regrettably had to use our national guard and state patrol to end a riot in Columbus. Certain units of their city government were acting in defiance of our common emergency planning. Since the current emergency regulations went into effect three weeks ago, the sitting Mayor of the town of Columbus as harassed federal and state emergency officials and closed the town off to needed aid. Monday’s action to end the blockade on vital emergency services was necessary to help the people of Columbus and help thousands of Nebraskans trying to evacuate likely targets in the state to seek shelter and aid.

This morning, Nebraska national guard and Nebraska State Patrol were deployed in Fremont against a possible threat to the safety and well-being of our citizens. The state patrol working in cooperation with the FBI have kept a monitor on an organization within the state called the “Nebraska White Man’s Front”. They are a group that espouses white supremacist and Neo-Nazi doctrines.

Welch Family farm – outside of Harvard, Nebraska

"Their leadership and certain members of this group are responsible for the deaths of 2 people and 11 wounded in a shooting during the peace demonstrations of February 14th in Downtown Omaha."


Carolina Welch was one of those wounded. Known across the state as “The Peace Lady”, Carolina was staring out the window, clutching prayer beads. “Please Lord,” she pleaded. “Bring humanity together now. We’re running out of time.”

In the cellar, her son Adam, along with his cousin Matt’s parents and Matt’s best friend Dina’s parents were completed the shelter in their storm cellar. Like most farms on the plains, it was strong and twister-proof…Now it had to be bomb-proof, too.

Matt and Dina continued to seek out people on the ham radio set in the next room. RACES, the national emergency ham radio system, was activated by the federal government over the weekend. The pair have been conversing with people all over the world at this moment, they were sharing the Governor’s broadcast with a ham station in England.

”I’ll tell you lad,” the man at the other end of the radio was nervous, “I’m scared. I live near the grand prix circuit at Silverstone…It’s back to what it used to be. In the last war, my grandfather flew bombers from there. There are V-Bombers parked there now. Waiting to head to Russia."

Dina hugged Matt as he listened to the man in England…and the Governor.

Documents submitted by the Federal Bureau of Investigation confirm that these groups have been a part of illegal arms trafficking, drug trafficking…and have engaged in child prostitution.

A Nebraska Army National Guard CH-47 Chinook heading to Hastings

“A raid was conducted against an identified camp ran by this organization. Our forces found caches of weapons, further evidence of other unlawful terrorist actions against Nebraska citizens, and secured the freedom of 15 hostages, all of them young girls between the ages of 12 and 16, who were being trained and used as sex slaves.”

Frank held his daughter close as she fell asleep. His Cao Vieh. His Chrissy Lynn. Delicate and beautiful like her mother.

”Unfortunately many members of this group, including key leaders of it are still at large in this state.”

Hearing the Governor say that made Frank angry again. “I will kill you Mr. Tyles,” Frank thought. “I promise you. You will see my face before you die.”

Dodge County Jail – Fremont, Nebraska

”Certain city officials in Fremont and within Dodge County’s government were acting in concert with this group. Those officials have been detained by local law enforcement and have been removed from office. The Dodge County Sheriff and other local officials have formed an interim city government in Fremont to aid the allocation of vital emergency services.”

The mayor and some of the city council were sitting in jail. The captured Neo-Nazis were transferred to the jail in neighboring Saunders County. Two deputies were guarding the use-to-be politicians, backed up by some Omaha cops who evacuated and were added to the rebuilt ranks of the Dodge County Sheriff’s Department.


I do not disclose these events to alarm you or cause undo panic, but the group in question here poses a grave threat to the safety of our people and other splinter groups in the last week have engaged in actions I find repugnant.

Colfax County Building—Schuyler, Nebraska

”Five days ago, members of the terrorist front within Dodge County were confirmed to be participants in a coordinated attack on the Winnebago Reservation in Northeastern Nebraska.”

The Sheriff, a few of his deputies and Beechcraft Bob were in the office. Two native American men sat with them. They were Winnebago, fleeing a reservation that was near the project target arounds around Sioux City, Iowa.

”Relax,” the Sheriff said. “You are safe here, sirs. I called for you because I want to know what happened at Winnebago.”

The young man was apprehensive at first, still very shaken up from the attack . “Same as it ever was,” he said harshly. “Damn palefaces just came in and attacked. They way they do, but this was different. They had big guns.”

”Those weapons were military weapons,” the older man said. “This was more than just random people who just don’t like us ‘injuns’. There was planning involved. Premeditated.”

”They were probably trying to kill you, Mr. LaMere,” the young man said.

The older man, Frank LaMere, was a growing activist among his people, and that irritated some. But enough to assault an entire town?

”Last night, a group of refugees coming into the state from Pine Ridge Indian Reservation, South Dakota were brutally attacked by a road gang using military grade weapons. Nineteen people lost their lives and 31 more were wounded. We have reason to believe that weapons used in this attack were purchased from elements within the Nebraska White Man’s Front.”

”This is happening in the land while things are whole,” LeMere said. “What happens when things are no longer whole and these people can run free? I saw them shoot one of their own who wanted peace. May the Great Spirit keep Carolina Welch safe.”

The Sheriff agreed. “She is someone we could use right now.”

Beechcraft Bob nodded. “I’m glad she’s still around.”

”I heard she was still in the hospital.”

”A good buddy of mine just flew her out of Omaha a couple of days ago,” Bob said. “He said she had some land out west and she was evacuating to it.”

I have received reports two incidences of cross burnings. One was at Grand Island Central Catholic High School, the other was at a private residence in Kearney.
Nebraskans, we are better than this.

Dana's Garage and Performance Parts -- Leigh, Nebraska

"We must send a clear message to those who seek to disrupt lawful efforts to render aid and comfort that their lawlessness and bigotry are not welcome here in Nebraska.”

Dana, was cleaning another one of his guns, Ralph and Ed were there as well, just to check up on their buddy and his wife.

"Did you guys hear about what the happened up near Chadron? Damn Klan bastards roasted a bunch of little kids in a van with a well-placed RPG. People just trying to get some help and leave what might be a hot zone," Dana said.

Ed felt a cold hatred he thought he left in Arkansas.

BASE FOXTROT/Nebraska Air National Guard 173rd Reconnaissance and Interception Squadron – McCool Junction, Nebraska

“I ask you all to be vigilant in the days and weeks ahead. I ask that good people across this state pull together, work together, and work along side our local government, law enforcement, and emergency management to help each other."

”All wings, listen up!” the air commander said. “Backing up what the Governor said, should we get attacking warnings, we will fly cover of the cities and the major roads. Also we’re going to send a few up now to back up a supply run through the area where these bandits hits those people last night.”

Each pilot in the 173rd was suited up and ready to fly, and ready to fight.

A ranch outside of Wayne, Nebraska

”To those who wish to be disruptive, I will tell you plainly. We will not tolerate you. We will not negotiate with you. We will bring you to justice.”

”That Governor doesn’t realize we won’t tolerate you,” the foot soldier said. “We will bring justice to the real Americans. Isn’t that right Mr. Tyles.”

”That’s damn right, Merle,” Tyler Tyles said. “We will put things back in order in this country.”

”I will be the order in this country,” Tyler Tyles thought as he held Jacqueline Gilliard close.

A Nebraska Army National Guard CH-47 Chinook – approaching Seward, Nebraska airport

”My fellow citizens. I am just as afraid as you are.”

Agent Toussaint Clayton is brooding, scheming, planning. He knows a meeting with his FBI boss is coming. He knows they’ll butt heads again, even with a war on.

He's been fighting since he was a little boy in Louisiana. When he was about 10, some good ol’ boys burned a cross on the lawn of his home, because of his “uppity” daddy, who was the head of the local NAACP.

A young man grew up seeing his father targeted. Once the Klan bombed his home. The little kid had nightmares for weeks after. In Toussaint Clayton’s mind, Tyler Tyles represents the fear he saw as a child. It is fuel that led him to protest, to march, to Princeton, and later to the CIA. It is that fuel powering his want to stop Tyles at any cost.

”I don’t care if those bombs come,” Clayton thought. “Tyles is a dead man.”

National Airborne Command Post (NEACP) E-4B “Guardian” flying over Nebraska.

”As a combat veteran, I saw the worst in mankind. I saw things I would never wish to see again in my life.”

Captain Glenn Allen Harper, United States Navy. Chicago, Illinois.

Between looking at the new Single Integrated Operations Plan, Captain Harper was listening to one of his best friends. A friendship that was born in battle, and now again may have go through another war.

“White Bread,” Captain Harper said to himself. “I’m glad you’re still there, man. Keep yourself safe, brother.”

A cabin near Dayton, Washington

Lieutenant Grayson Penwald, United States Navy, retired. Huntington Beach, California.

The man call-signed COMEDY back in Vietnam was doing what he’d said he’d do if it looked like the balloon was going up. He’d go to a nice cabin in Washington, and have a cold one – even at 7:30am and picking up a radio signal from Nebraska.


”It scares me to think that I may see those scenes play out again on a scale I cannot begin to imagine.”

He raised his beer bottle to the sky. “Here’s to you, J. Robert Kerrey,” he said to himself. “The toughest damn pharmacist ever. If it wasn’t for you, my friend, I wouldn’t be enjoying this beer now.”

I ask you all to pray for our state, for our nation, and for our world. I also ask you all to comfort each other, especially our young people. Our young Nebraskans have already lost a great deal of innocence these last few weeks. They are frightened. They are scared. Please take a minute to comfort them as we try to comfort and be strong for each other.

Take care of each other, Nebraska. Please, take care of each other.
Thank you for listening this morning. May God protect us all.
 
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This is a really well-written timeline.

It's a compliment to your build-up that I did not want the really bad stuff to happen, although that's kind of the main point of it anyway! Maybe someone (or you) can make an alternate ATL where the war ends peacefully.
 
"Western France will look like paradise in places because there is nothing of interest to target in for example Brittany apart from Brest and Rennes. What will really help here as well is that some of these regions are hugely agricultural in nature, Brittany by itself has almost 90% of the French pork production, the Loire Valley produces a third of the national grain production.

Does this mean...A French Protect and Survive is coming? I'd read that on one condition..

The TGV must live!!!! :)
 
Does this mean...A French Protect and Survive is coming? I'd read that on one condition..

The TGV must live!!!! :)

I concur.
While I do not know much about French military installations, apart obvious things as "Aubagne is the seat of the Foreign Legion", I can begin preparing a file with what I think will be the most likely nuclear targets in the country, as I did earlier for NW Italy.
I too have a suspicion that western France in general may prove a good survival area. The ooint will be if there'll be enough remaining peope to cultiate it, and enough fuel and fertilizers not to plunge again to medieval levels, à la "Malevil" (for those who read this French novel).

*plot-nuking France*
 
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Great update as usual. I like the mixing of the speech with snapshots from all over the country!

Does this mean...A French Protect and Survive is coming? I'd read that on one condition..

The TGV must live!!!! :)

It is at the research stage at the moment ;).

I concur.
While I do not know much about French military installations, apart obvious things as "Aubagne is the seat of the Foreign Legion", I can begin preparing a file with what I think will be the most likely nuclear targets in the country, as I did earlier for NW Italy.
I too have a suspicion that western France in general may prove a good survival area. The ooint will be if there'll be enough remaining peope to cultiate it, and enough fuel and fertilizers not to plunge again to medieval levels, à la "Malevil" (for those who read this French novel).

Feel free to prepare a target file if you so wish. My feeling is that most of the airbases will be hit especially in the North-East, bases hosting squadrons of Mirage IV strategic bombers have an even higher likelyhood of being hit. The Albion plateau will suffer at least thirty hits because of the nuclear silos there, human losses will be minimum though as the area is lightly populated but fallout will be a problem.

With regards to fuel I have explained very clearly on the main Protect and Survive thread, why I do not expect petroleum supplies for agriculture not to be much of a problem post strike. The present fuel consumption of western countries is huge but agriculture only account for five percent of this, a very stringent rationing programme is therefore all that is needed to keep agriculture fueled up. Fertilizers are overrated in my opinion, since they are only one element among many that allowed for agricultural yields to shot up all over the world. Other equally importants elements are the choice of higher yielding plants and strains and better crop rotation practices. I would also like to point out that in the absence of large scale water treatment plants post war, one fertiliser will become available on a large scale. This is you guessed it, human manure or shit. Sewage collection will become a growing industry post war and while it certainly won't be glamorous, it will perform a very useful role. Human hands and horse powered carts are all that is needed to make it successful as well ...
Longer term, the chemistry of a lot of fertilisers is very simple but requires high pressure machinery to be effective. Rebuilding these facilities will be the first priority of many nations. But in the meantime, organic fertilisers should be effective enough.
 
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Here's a thought:

Hopefully one thing the medical people on the emergency staff has been doing is to stockpile two particular supplies: antibiotics and vaccines/immunizations. With crowded living conditions, reduced water supplies (clean water for drinking & water for hygiene), possible immune suppression from mild radiation sickness, and reduced nutrition disease will be a big problem - particularly water borne and louse/tick borne diseases (typhoid, typhus, bacillary & amoebic dysentery, possibly cholera). All military should be up to date on shots, hopefully first responders (fire, EMT, police) got theirs in the run-up as part of the prep. For the civilian population, other than those that had some of these (and most would not) given how much of the various vaccines might be available, best to wait until AFTER the exchange. I know its cruel, but if there is a limited supply of typhoid vaccine (not something folks usually get in Nebraska) better to give it after, not waste any on those who are killed in the exchange or die shortly thereafter - save it for those who are at least potential long term survivors. Triage in the post attack scenario is going to be severe, and brutal - and very NECESSARY. You may very well see even pain medications and IV fluids denied to those categorized as "expectant" due to limited supplies - and the strain on the medical personnel making these decisions (letting a 5 year old die in pain) will be severe. Police/military with orders to shoot WILL be needed at all medical facilities.

For those who are not familiar: Triage (sorting in French) is the system where injured/sick are categorized in "mass casualty" situations - where there is not enough medical care (personnel/equipment/supplies) to treat everyone promptly, or even at all. The categories (standard NATO) "minimal", "delayed", "immediate", "expectant" (sometimes I/II/II/IV or green/yellow/red/black). "Expectant" means that the individual has little or no chance of survival under any circumstances (such as documented high does radiation disease) or while potentially salvageable would take so much time/resource as to prevent care being delivered to several others who either have a better chance of surviving or, especially in a military setting, will be potentially returnable to full duty as opposed to permanently disabled. In the military the triage officer is a senior doctor, usually a surgeon, and his/her decisions are basically final - someone can change categories if their condition changes (better or worse, or more people/stuff is available), but during their watch the decisions can only be changed by the senior medical officer at the facility, and that would usually mean he relieves the triage officer. FWIW in the military triage begins with the corpsman on the scene, who decides treatement and evac priorities, likewise in civilian world with EMTs at an accident scene.
 
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