An execution preempted: A lethal Otsu incident, Russian empire centered TL

[zert]

Thank you for a very informative breakdown. As said this is not a great time for Japan with its limited ships and military. In the end we may see Japan stay its home waters and not be expansionist for a while.

Any chance China might try to take back some of its lost territory if war broke out?

 

[yboxman]

Thank you for a very informative breakdown. As said this is not a great time for Japan with its limited ships and military. In the end we may see Japan stay its home waters and not be expansionist for a while.

Any chance China might try to take back some of its lost territory if war broke out?

Against who? Their greatest chunk of lost territory was taken by Russia. They were clearly bluffing when they threatened war in 1880 over Ili and the Russian position has grown relatively stronger since then (Transcaspian railway, conquest of Khiva and Turcomans, abolition of Kokand).

Since then China has taken a pounding from France, which is allied with Russia, so I suspect they China will not risk war with Russia, even in alliance with Japan. Still, the possibility might cause Russia to be more cautious with pushing Japan too far, and to try to expand their alliance with France to the Far East, at least Vs China.

On the other hand China might offer naval bases to Russia in return for the "return" of the Ryukus to chinese sovereignty att he conclusion of the war. Or even use a humilating put down of Japan to reassert their claims there or in Korea.

 

[mlp]

On the other hand China might offer naval bases to Russia in return for the "return" of the Ryukus to chinese sovereignty att he conclusion of the war. Or even use a humilating put down of Japan to reassert their claims there or in Korea.

China is perceived to have the upper hand against Japan at this time; around this period Chinese sailors in Nagasaki raised a hassle, and the Chinese didn't even have to apologise I think. Also Korea is in their hands right now, and OTL after the First Sino-Japanese War it was in Russian hands. So this may result in an earlier neutrality diplomacy by Korea(China vs. Russia, instead of Russia vs. Japan as per IOTL).

 

[yboxman]

China is perceived to have the upper hand against Japan at this time; around this period Chinese sailors in Nagasaki raised a hassle, and the Chinese didn't even have to apologise I think. Also Korea is in their hands right now, and OTL after the First Sino-Japanese War it was in Russian hands. So this may result in an earlier neutrality diplomacy by Korea(China vs. Russia, instead of Russia vs. Japan as per IOTL).

Didn't know about the Nagasaki incident. link?

Regarding Korea, while CHina has the upper hand in court influence it has also agreed not to place any troops in Korea without Japanese agreement following the fallout from the Gaspin Coup and the convention of Tientsin.

Formally, it is a co-dominium even if China has the upper hand at court.

 

[mlp]

Didn't know about the Nagasaki incident. link?

Regarding Korea, while CHina has the upper hand in court influence it has also agreed not to place any troops in Korea without Japanese agreement following the fallout from the Gaspin Coup and the convention of Tientsin.

Formally, it is a co-dominium even if China has the upper hand at court.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nagasaki_incident

On Gapsin true, but Gojong was Yuan Shikai's plaything at this point. Foreign sources point to him as "eccentric" and "boisterous" but having firm control over Hanseong.

 

[yboxman]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nagasaki_incident

On Gapsin true, but Gojong was Yuan Shikai's plaything at this point. Foreign sources point to him as "eccentric" and "boisterous" but having firm control over Hanseong.

Duh… note to self: next time before I ask for a link on "X incident"- I should google "x incident".

Weird I never read about ti before- thanks for the pointer. Will see if I can work a reference to it in whatever post brings the Qing into the TL.

Since you are the Korea expert what political hay do you think the Qing might try to make of this? Alliance with Japan? (re) Formalization of the tributary relationship of Korea Via a new Sino-Korean treaty? Troop movements into Korea? Or will they just chortle into their robes?

Once the Tonghak shit hits the fan and China sends troops in are they likely to refuse to pull them out (as they were in the process of doing OTL when Japan invaded) if Japan seems weaker than OTL and does not invade?

 

[mlp]

Duh… note to self: next time before I ask for a link on "X incident"- I should google "x incident".

no worries. I'll be as helpful as I can.

Weird I never read about ti before- thanks for the pointer. Will see if I can work a reference to it in whatever post brings the Qing into the TL.

Saw something interesting in the wikipage myself, apparently this was how the Japanese found the encryption code used by the Qing. Helped them tremendously during the First Sino-Japanese War.

Since you are the Korea expert what political hay do you think the Qing might try to make of this? Alliance with Japan? (re) Formalization of the tributary relationship of Korea Via a new Sino-Korean treaty? Troop movements into Korea? Or will they just chortle into their robes?

It's 1891, so China's currently busy prepping for Cixi's grand jubilee(yep, she wanted one as good as Queen Victoria's, all the money was going in there atm - even the warships were being used to transport fruits from the south). Therefore they don't have the money to really be sending troops anywhere, not when they can't even train them. But Yuan and Li Hongzhang's New Armies are another matter - they are modern trained, and IOTL was the basis of the warlords era. They'll be going into Korea to reassert control while Japan cries like a baby who just lost grip of his balloons.

Korea and particularly Gojong will be happy about a restrengthened tie with China, it's just easier for them to comprehend. Empress Myongsong will be trying to make a balance between Russia and China however, IOTL she extended her hands to the Russians and now it can become the Americans. And Lord knows what American businessmen can do to even the most undeveloped lands in the nick of a second. (Whether or not this is even plausible is totally up to you.)

Once the Tonghak shit hits the fan and China sends troops in are they likely to refuse to pull them out (as they were in the process of doing OTL when Japan invaded) if Japan seems weaker than OTL and does not invade?

Tonghak will, if risen, be squashed by Yuan's New Armies - with Japan even weaker TTL they have even less reason to have an uprising, so it will have smaller support. China can certainly use this as an opportunity to station even more troops in the peninsula.

Another major ramification - the First Sino-Japanese war saw a great rise of pro-Japanese sentiment in China actually, as may Han Chinese felt the Japanese defeated the Manchus, not themselves. No war means no impetus towards modernisation, no impetus towards Han nationalism and no large numbers of Chinese students rushing towards Japanese universities.

 

[zert]

If the rush to get education in Japan is squashed, would the students go to Russia? Another Country?

Some above mentioned possible American companies coming into Korea. If they did and were later threatened by Russia/Japan, might this lead American intervention? Also if the US has a pressence in Korea, would this have a factor if the Spanish-American War still happens?

 

[yboxman]

#6: In the shadow of the Lion


AJP Taylor, The struggle for Mastery in Eurasia

The convention of Vladivostok seemingly had little effect on the balance of power in Eurasia. The Japanese were forced to cede the Kuriles and fishing rights in the sea of Okhotsk, as well as consent to the temporary demilitarization of Hokaido, but fended off Russian demands for occupation of Tsunshima and Okinawa.

The indemmity was set at 2.5 million pounds sterling, to be paid within a year, and 6 million additional pounds sterling to be paid over the following five years. Given that Japan’s yearly defense budget amounted to no more than 5 million pounds this was to prove a heavy burden indeed (1).
Though the Japanese navy kept its flagship Hashidate it was able to pay the salaries of its naval officers only by selling the Matsushima and the Itsukushima to Brazil the following year.

These ships, and reliable seamen provided by the empire of Japan, would form the core of the loyalist navy which would defeat the Revoltas da Armada (2), and would form a precedent for the provision by the IJA of the infamous “ronin army” which aided the Brazilian government in crushing the Federalist Riograndense Revolution in Rio Grande do Sul. The role this force later played in germinating the fruitful Japanese community in Brazil and the further development of that nation is, however, outside the scope of this work and in any event of little interest to non-Brazillians.

That the inventive Japanese found ways to economize on their misfortune is no doubt to their credit. The failure of the second Salisbury ministry to seize the opportunity presented in this theater to place a barrier in the face of Russian expansionism is rather less to it’s credit.

To be sure, in the defense of the Second Salisbury ministry it must be said that its sins of omission were dwarfed by the sins of commission carried out under the third ministry.

The memoirs of Sergei Witte, advocate of gradual commercial penetration of the Asian markets make clear the extent to which Alexander III feared British intervention. They also make clear the inability of Russia, at that point in time to, seriously counter British naval power in the pacific with Russian land power in Central Asia.

That Japan was preserved as an independent state, and a persistant thorn in Russia’s side can therefore be accredited to the might of the British Lion. Such was its fame at the time that though he might not roar, this being deemed impolitic, and though he might slumber and be unaware of the great movements of histroy, still it’s shadow was sufficient to deter Russia from greater aggression.

(1) By comparision the cost of constructing the Trans-Siberian was 35 million pounds over ten years and Russia's 1890 defence budget was 29 Million.
(2) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revolta_da_Armada#Details_of_conflict

 

[mlp]

(1) By comparision the cost of constructing the Trans-Siberian was 35 million pounds over ten years and Russia's 1890 defence budget was 29 Million.
(2) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revolta_da_Armada#Details_of_conflict

Wondering where you got the numbers, hoping I could get some of mine.

 

[yboxman]

Wondering where you got the numbers, hoping I could get some of mine.

Russian, Transiberian and other European numbers are courtesy of OTLs AJP Taylor.

Japanese numbers I errr... made up. Or rather guesstimated on the basis of Comparing the numbers of millitary personnel between Italy and Japan, who at the time were the closest in economic and military strength (or rather weakness).

Italian defense expenses in 1890 were 15 million Sterling and military personnel 284 thousand. Japan had only 84 thousand millitary personnel but was undergoing massive expansion (it would nearly equal italy by 1900). So I guesstimated a budget equal to 1 third that of Italy.

I do have exact sums for 1894, 1895 1904, 1905, 1906 and 1908- but they are in Yen and I can find no relaible Sterling-Yen conversion.

http://www.coralgablescavaliers.org...site/Statistical Tables from Paul Kennedy.pdf

 

[Clandango]

Since the thing with Taiwan was about native Taiwanese attacking Ryukans it may instead fall upon the Russians to go in.

 

[mlp]

Russian, Transiberian and other European numbers are courtesy of OTLs AJP Taylor.

Japanese numbers I errr... made up. Or rather guesstimated on the basis of Comparing the numbers of millitary personnel between Italy and Japan, who at the time were the closest in economic and military strength (or rather weakness).

Italian defense expenses in 1890 were 15 million Sterling and military personnel 284 thousand. Japan had only 84 thousand millitary personnel but was undergoing massive expansion (it would nearly equal italy by 1900). So I guesstimated a budget equal to 1 third that of Italy.

I do have exact sums for 1894, 1895 1904, 1905, 1906 and 1908- but they are in Yen and I can find no relaible Sterling-Yen conversion.

http://www.coralgablescavaliers.org...site/Statistical Tables from Paul Kennedy.pdf

(All I know is that the Russo-Japanese War got Japan's defence budget jacked up to nearly 40%, and their normal seems to range between 10 and 15. A third seems apt.)
Also, here's your conversion rate:
2.027 JPY
=
1 USD
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tables_of_historical_exchange_rates_to_the_United_States_dollar

Well, you should be happy to hear that in the process of attempting to find your source I found that IOTL Korea's government revenue of 1904 was 14 million. Dollars. We were a very, very poor country back then.

 

[Clandango]

And thinking about Brazil... That would have to be interesting to the Japanese, considering Portugal was once treated like a mortal enemy to Japan. Might their be cordial relations between the countries?

 

[yboxman]

(All I know is that the Russo-Japanese War got Japan's defence budget jacked up to nearly 40%, and their normal seems to range between 10 and 15. A third seems apt.)

Yeah, that's about as much as they can stomach without deciding that fighting to the death Vs Russia is better than facing riots at home.

Also, here's your conversion rate:
2.027 JPY
=
1 USD
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tables_of_historical_exchange_rates_to_the_United_States_dollar

Nice! So Sterling:Yen seems to be pretty steady at 1:10 between 1900-1020. Lets assume this held steady also in 1890-1900.

Japan spent 233.4 million Yen, or 23 Million Sterling on the sino-Japanese war and got back 240 million Tael in indemmeties (don't suppose you have a Tael:Sterling calculator, do you?)


It spent a stunning 1.8 Billion Yen, or 180 million Sterling, on the Russo Japanese war (Fuck! Guess that explains why they had riots after they didn't recieve reparations)

And it's peacetime millitary budget was increased from 37 million yen in 1906 to 65 million yen in 1908. So 5 million Sterling/year would seem to be a good guesstimate except that the Japanese economy and millitary greatly expanded between 1890-1905.


I think, however, that in 1906-1908 they were still drawing on the special appropriations and loans made to cover the Russo Japanese war to cover peacetime millitary expenses so those numbers may not be indicative of 1891 expenditures.

What would really be useful is Japan's peacetime budget just before the Sino-Japanese war- but I can't find it anywhere.

Still, whatever their defense budget actually was in 1891 they seem to have the wherewithal to fork up 8.5 Million Sterling over five years. They spent three times as much on the Sino-Japanese war after all. I may have actually let them off a bit easy.

Well, you should be happy to hear that in the process of attempting to find your source I found that IOTL Korea's government revenue of 1904 was 14 million. Dollars. We were a very, very poor country back then.

14 million Dollars or 2.4 million Sterling is actually more than I expected. Not so much because of poverty per se but because of government not being able to tax effectively (or rather, not being able to keep its tax collectors from diverting funds) and having a very shallow reach into the society it governed.

When Japan modernized it's "one whip" Land tax was the main source of revenue and very nearly caused Peasent rebellions- the government was taking much, much more than it traditionally had, and much more of the money was reaching the central coffers rather than being diverted.

Tsarist Russia was somewhere in the middle. Very good at squeezing the last drop of blood out of the peasants- but giving a totally free ride to the bug landowners and industiralists.

 

[yboxman]

Since the thing with Taiwan was about native Taiwanese attacking Ryukans it may instead fall upon the Russians to go in.

Already happened prior to the POD- and the Russians aren't getting Okinawa any which way. For one thing, the UK would Veto that.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_invasion_of_Taiwan_(1874)

And thinking about Brazil... That would have to be interesting to the Japanese, considering Portugal was once treated like a mortal enemy to Japan. Might their be cordial relations between the countries?

Well, that's the Idea. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_Brazilian#First_immigrants

What happens TTL is that Japanese immigration occurs a decade and a half earlier, the immigrants have more prestige and state recognition and they receive land grants in the North and Amazonia to boot, rather than have to work their asses off on Coffee plantations to save enough to move up the socio economic ladder.

So, larger Japanese Brazilian population and interesting international dynamics.

OTOH, Japan as a nation is going to have less military prestige than OTL for reasons that shall become readily apparant.

On the third hand, less military prestige also= less fear of "yellow peril" so maybe Japanese immigrants escape the post 1920s backlash.

 

[mlp]

Nice! So Sterling:Yen seems to be pretty steady at 1:10 between 1900-1020. Lets assume this held steady also in 1890-1900.

Japan spent 233.4 million Yen, or 23 Million Sterling on the sino-Japanese war and got back 240 million Tael in indemmeties (don't suppose you have a Tael:Sterling calculator, do you?)

http://h-net.msu.edu/cgi-bin/logbro...2&week=b&msg=IdITVgjYaRo6g2M+ow50rg&user=&pw=
"1875 - 58 pence or 0.204 pounds sterling or if the tael was 1.2 ounces it would be worth almost 3.3 tael = 1 UK pound = 4.86 US dollars (of the time)
1899 - 27 pence or 0.1125 UK pounds an ounce of silver, so an undebased silver tael would exchange at c. 7 taels = 1 UK pound, a depreciation of over 50%."
There's your answer.

It spent a stunning 1.8 Billion Yen, or 180 million Sterling, on the Russo Japanese war (Fuck! Guess that explains why they had riots after they didn't recieve reparations)

And a lot of that was British money, the Japanese simply didn't have the finances for that kind of war. And yeah that's a shitton of money.

14 million Dollars or 2.2 million Sterling is actually more than I expected. Not so much because of poverty per se but because of government not being able to tax effectively (or rather, not being able to keep its tax collectors from diverting funds) and having a very shallow reach into the society it governed.

When Japan modernized it's "one whip" Land tax was the main source of revenue and very nearly caused Peasent rebellions- the government was taking much, much more than it traditionally had, and much more of the money was reaching the central coffers rather than being diverted.

Tsarist Russia was somewhere in the middle. Very good at squeezing the last drop of blood out of the peasants- but giving a totally free ride to the bug landowners and industiralists.

Yeah, Japan's tax policy was actually pretty terrible. Then there's the Japanese Finance Minister in 1915 explaining in a conference, "the Japanese are a very docile people" and "we still have a long way to make a sophisticated tax system". One hell of a justification, I must say.
And it's important to know that rural impoverishment was what drove Japan towards radical statism in the end, along with ultranationalist education.

So if I may ask, how much more of revenue can Korea get if its tax system becomes reformed to "Western" standards? Maybe by 50%? Perhaps a double?

EDIT:

What happens TTL is that Japanese immigration occurs a decade and a half earlier, the immigrants have more prestige and state recognition and they receive land grants in the North and Amazonia to boot, rather than have to work their asses off on Coffee plantations to save enough to move up the socio economic ladder.

So, larger Japanese Brazilian population and interesting international dynamics.

OTOH, Japan as a nation is going to have less military prestige than OTL for reasons that shall become readily apparant.

On the third hand, less military prestige also= less fear of "yellow peril" so maybe Japanese immigrants escape the post 1920s backlash.

Didn't Japanese immigration occur because the Italians began boycotting emigration to Brazil since the labour situation was pretty terrible? This began increasing Japanese-Brazilian hostilities because despite Japan's requests, Brazil treated the Japanese labourers like shit. So this'll need the Italians to also start boycotting a decade early.

 

[yboxman]

http://h-net.msu.edu/cgi-bin/logbro...2&week=b&msg=IdITVgjYaRo6g2M+ow50rg&user=&pw=
"1875 - 58 pence or 0.204 pounds sterling or if the tael was 1.2 ounces it would be worth almost 3.3 tael = 1 UK pound = 4.86 US dollars (of the time)
1899 - 27 pence or 0.1125 UK pounds an ounce of silver, so an undebased silver tael would exchange at c. 7 taels = 1 UK pound, a depreciation of over 50%."
There's your answer.

Thanks!

So even if the 1894 values were equivalent to the 1899 values the Japanese made a very hefty profuit. If they were equivalent to the 1875 values they made an unbelivable shitload of money. Talk about make war pay for war!

And a lot of that was British money, the Japanese simply didn't have the finances for that kind of war. And yeah that's a shitton of money.

Well, pray don't forget our own Schiff. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jacob_Schiff#National_loans

You Pogrom us? We Pogrom you!

Yeah, Japan's tax policy was actually pretty terrible. Then there's the Japanese Finance Minister in 1915 explaining in a conference, "the Japanese are a very docile people" and "we still have a long way to make a sophisticated tax system". One hell of a justification, I must say.
And it's important to know that rural impoverishment was what drove Japan towards radical statism in the end, along with ultranationalist education.

I THINK they were moving beyond the "bleed the peasents" school of taxation by the 1920s. But yes, the situation in the countryside was not much improving.

So if I may ask, how much more of revenue can Korea get if its tax system becomes reformed to "Western" standards? Maybe by 50%? Perhaps a double?

It can't reform it's taxes to "western" standards within less than 50 years or so. Income tax requires a very advanced banking and recording system, a culture where people are used to paying taxes and don't devote much energy to tax evasion.

I'm afraid the Japanese/Russian/Persian/Ottoman way is pretty much the only way to go. Tax the peasants, hopefully without giving a rentier class a free pass. Establish functional custom duties. protect your own industrialists with high tariffs and tax breaks, but not for too long or they will never become competitive. And then make the difficult transition where you invest money in urban development in order to create a middle class which will buy your native industries and pay your taxes.

If Korea can do that... Well, I think Japan quadrupled it's governmental income between 1866-1884 without much industrialization. No reason Korea can;t do the same. Assuming it starts a crash modernization in the 1870s (that's your TL right?) I would say it should be able to draw on 20-25% of the amount of Japan's governmental income.

Much smaller population but More farmland and minerals per capita.

Didn't Japanese immigration occur because the Italians began boycotting emigration to Brazil since the labour situation was pretty terrible? This began increasing Japanese-Brazilian hostilities because despite Japan's requests, Brazil treated the Japanese labourers like shit. So this'll need the Italians to also start boycotting a decade early.

ITTL the cart gets put before the horses. Japanese immigrants start coming in as a result of the connections established during the Brazilian civil war (and because the economic situation in Japan is even shittier than OTL) and are prepared to work for lower wages and under worse conditions than the Itallians, leading to an earlier boycott.

 

[mlp]

It can't reform it's taxes to "western" standards within less than 50 years or so. Income tax requires a very advanced banking and recording system, a culture where people are used to paying taxes and don't devote much energy to tax evasion.

I'm afraid the Japanese/Russian/Persian/Ottoman way is pretty much the only way to go. Tax the peasants, hopefully without giving a rentier class a free pass. Establish functional custom duties. protect your own industrialists with high tariffs and tax breaks, but not for too long or they will never become competitive. And then make the difficult transition where you invest money in urban development in order to create a middle class which will buy your native industries and pay your taxes.

If Korea can do that... Well, I think Japan quadrupled it's governmental income between 1866-1884 without much industrialization. No reason Korea can;t do the same. Assuming it starts a crash modernization in the 1870s (that's your TL right?) I would say it should be able to draw on 20-25% of the amount of Japan's governmental income.

Much smaller population but More farmland and minerals per capita.

Much better than I would've expected. Reform begins in 1884. How much was Japan's total gov't revenue in the 1890s again?

 

[yboxman]

Much better than I would've expected. Reform begins in 1884. How much was Japan's total gov't revenue in the 1890s again?

in 1900 Japan had a governmental revenue of 174 million$ or 34.8 million sterling equivalent to 3.88$ per capita.

Edit: found another source which places Japanese central govenmental expenditures as rsing from 66 to 183 to 310 million Yen between 1890>1900>1910

https://books.google.co.il/books?id...epage&q=japan government revenue 1890&f=false

Not sure to what extent the central government subsidised local government or whether local government was reliant on it's own tax base.

Should note that in 1870 the Land tax supplied 90% of governmantal revenue- by 1890 this was down to 60% by 1900 to 32.5% and by 1911 to 17.8%. OTOH indirect taxes provided most of th shortfall... and they obviously impacted the poorer populations, urban or rural, more than they did the Wealthy. Income tax continued to provide a relatively small proportion of the budget.