abc123
Banned
Hopefully just real life that has kept yboxman away. Only been a week, so I do not think the Doom of Thread Death has struck.
Let's hope so...
An execution preempted: A lethal Otsu incident, Russian empire centered TL
- Thread starter yboxman
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Let's hope so...
yboxman
Banned
#2 edit
Edited this to make the Russians and prince George somewhat less high handed. Meiji arrives in Vladivostok in his own vessel.
Listen to this as you read the post to get the intended vibe.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L_WW5M7lmv0
Kobe bay, May 15th 1891
The foghorn blows in the early morning, warning the approaching battleship of the approach of his own, diminutive vessel.
He has been advised against this gesture. But, in truth, Japan has no choice.
The emperor Meiji keeps a world map in his chambers, updated yearly. And every year, it seems, the parts of the world rules by non-Europeans shrink.
In 1853, when he was born the Europeans already held all of India, had planted two colonies flanking Guangdong, and had forced the Qing to open five treaty ports in southern China to European traders. Russia had just completed the subjugation of the fierce Kazakh hordes but had yet to advance into the civilized emirates of the TransOxus and was still struggling to subdue the fiercely independent mountaineers of the Caucasus. It's eastern boundaries were still confined north of the Stanovoy Mountains.
The fog clears, exposing the Russian flagship. It is massive, larger than anything the Japanese navy possesses. Larger even than the new Japanese ships being laid down in the shipyards of Liverpool.
By 1866, when forces "loyal" to him overthrew the Shogun and seemingly restored the imperial authority lost for over six centuries, the entirety of the Chinese coast, and it's inland waterways had been made open not only to traders but missionaries and armed gunboats as well. The Qing capital had been briefly occupied, it's palaces burned. France had seized the delta of the Mekong from Vietnam and had made Cambodia into a protectorate. Russia had subjugated and ethnically cleansed Circassia and Dagestan, annexed Tashkent, seized the TransAmur and the Ussuri from the Qing and had begun to sniff at the northernmost of the home islands as well. And the home islands… they too had been forcibly opened to the Europeans and treaty ports established.
"Their steam is up" Itō Sukeyuki remarks grimly. "they do not intend to remain at harbor long- they know our coastal batteries can harm even their sea-dragons"
"Then our arrival shall reassure them we have no intention of using this advantage against them- and by implication that we had no part in the murderous crime"
He has done his best throughout the past 25 years to hold back the tide, to modernize Japan without ceding control to the foreigner. He has fought one bloody civil war against some of his early supporters who would have dragged Japan to a war before it was ready. He had to give up Sakhalin to the Russians but by adroitly calling on British aid had kept them out of Tsunshima and had solidified control of Hokaido, Ryuku and the Kurile islands. The feudal samurai and ashigaru levies are now a modern conscription based army armed with the newest weapons and the navy is slowly being built up into a force capable of holding it's own to the European far eastern flotillas and the Qing fleet alike.
Is this, he wonders, how the rulers of the lesser states surrounding China felt when forced to pay tribute to the court of the Middle Kingdom? This ignomity is one that Japan avoided throughout it's history. Alone of the states of East Asia it had refused tributary relations with China, had even thrown back the Mongol hordes which swept all others, including the ancestors of these Russians, before them (1). Must Japan now fall prey to those who have claimed the mantle of the conqurer of Eurasia?
As his vessal lines up to dock alongside the Russian flagship he is greeted by a long line of Russian sailors arrayed in ranks at the lower deck. They do not maintain the stoic, opaque body language of their Japanese equivalents. The fists of many are clenched, others glare and a few even spit without being disciplined by their officers. A bad sign.
Or perhaps a good one. "undisplined rabble" Itō Sukeyuki dismisses his possible future foes. The emperor raises an eyebrow "Numerous rabble… with large guns".
"Hai. Ten more years…"
"We do not have ten more years. We may not have ten more days".
The Gai-Jin had not held still during his reign. The nations of Western Europe had carved the entire continent of Africa between them, leaving only Ethiopia and Morroco as quasi independent. The French had completed their conquest of Vietnam, humbling the Qing yet again, and exposing it's self-strengthening as a sham. The Russians have had their reverses, true, but they had completed their conquests of the emirates of central Asia a decade ago. For the first time in their history they found no open Steppe frontier to settle overcome, turning their energies to binding their vast Eurasian empire together with a belt of steel which threatened to end the protection granted Japan by its isolation and expose the home islands to the full might of a European power before its modernization was complete.
Their new crown prince, their Tsarevitch, greets him cordinally enough, seemingly mastering the grief which overwhelmed him at Kyoto. Slowly, he guides the emperor to the Bier where the Tsarevitch lies in state (2), surrounded by selected Marines. The emperor can only hope there is no Russian Tsuda Sanzo among them… though Nippon might actually fare better if one such should seek revenge on his own body rather than that of his nation (3).
"I have spoken with my father."
The interpreter swiftly conveys the prince's words (4) but it is their tone which Meiji seeks to interpret. He would have no trouble if he were Japanese. But he has had little dealings with the Russians. They are... subtly different than their western kin. Closer, perhaps, to the Mongols who had once ruled them (5). And for all that George seemed the perfect European a week ago he seems to have reverted since the murder of his brother and the honorable retribution he has levied on his killer.
Is the tone Ominous? Neutral? Conciliatory? He does not know.
"I trust he has had a chance to grieve and accept our heartfelt apologies and deepest expression of sorrow. I can assure you that our investigation have uncovered no conspiracy behind the actions of Tsuda Sanzo. It was the act of a madman, acting alone."
"We have yet to carry out our own investigation. Regardless, if it was the act of a madman, it was a madman fed on a steady diet of anti-Russian propaganda, some of it originating in the official press. At the very least your government is guilty of gross and dishonorable negligence"
"I have come to express my shame, Nippon's shame, at this dishonor. We are prepared to discuss any reparation not in conflict with the dignity of Nippon as a free nation"
"Reparation? What reparation can you possibly offer for the murder of my brother?"
Itō Sukeyuki is holding the Tanto necessary for one such reparation. He would already have used it if he thought the Russians would accept the gesture (6). But he has outlawed the practice for a reason. Nippon will only be accepted as a member in the family of nations, protected by international law in the same way the smaller nations of Europe are (7), if it sheds customs unacceptable to European opinion. Russia is all too likely to view, and present, his suicide as proof positive of the barbarity of his people.
"Are these the words of your father?"
He is prepared to commit seppuku if all else fails. Or he hopes he is. The Fog is beginning to clear and the shoreline of Kobe, still shrouded in its remains, seems inutterably beautiful. The ugly factories which have risen up around the traditional wooden houses and temples of the old city underscore the changes which his reign has wrought on his homeland. He has enjoyed more years than most of his subjects but with luck and good medical care could enjoy as many more years again. Is he truly greedy for these years? Is this what all the Samurai who had fallen back on Seppuku to regain honor felt before drawing the blade?
The voice of the Prince, oblivious to Meiji's inner conflict, breaks.
"My Father… My Father offers you the opportunity to express your sorrow at the funeral of my brother. Negotiators will be present to discuss... reparations"
He is young. And still wracked with grief and anger. He also clearly disagrees with his father. But his father shows every indication of being a man of moderation and cunning. Forcing him personally to travel to St.Petersburg, rather than sending his minister is the act of a suzerain towards his tributary. A humilitation, made all the worse by it's unprecedented nature. He had never, after all, left the home islands. No Japanese emperor ever had (8).
But the journey will take many months, the negotiations many more. Time to prepare, time to seek the protection of Britain and other powers. Time, too, for domestic opinion in Russia to calm down from the furious flames to which it had been fanned and to be mollified by his submission. Does the Tsar, like him, need to contend with factions seeking to maneuver the "great autocrat" in directions of their own choosing rather than his own? Is this his way of outmaneuvering them, of creating a reality which cannot be overturned? He can only join the Tsar in his dance and hope they are dancing to the same tune.
"Inform your honored father that I will make preparations to travel to St Petersburg immediately."
"Not St Petersburg. Vladivostok. My brother was to drive the first spike into the Trans-Siberian railway and it is there, at its Pacific terminus that he will be buried. The Governor General of the TransAmur and representitives from the foreign ministry will discuss terms with you and you ministers there."
Burying his son at the terminus of the railway tying his empire together, and projecting it's power toward Japan is a powerful symbol of course (9). And forcing him to travel there discuss terms with a mere frontier official is an even greater humiliation than traveling to his capital (10). And it leaves him, or rather his government, mere days to seek the intervention of the other powers.
No, this is not the tune he thought it was.
The deck of the Russian flagship shudders as its turbines slowly begin to spin.
"I trust that you shall escort us out of the harbor and into international waters. "
(1) Well… not exactly. But true in essence and this is national mythology, not history.
(2) How does one keep a dead tsarevitch from going rank at sea? Don’t go there.
(3) For I am winterborn…
(4) Nicholas, George and Michael spoke fluent French, and passable German, English and Italian. Emperor Meiji did not. His childhood education did not include it and it was too late to catch up when he assumed power. Which didn’t stop him from being a kick-ass emperor. Which Nicholas was not.
(5) If I seem to be making too much of this it's because of the association of the Russians with the Mongols in Japanese popular culture and imagination at this time (and up to WWII). An association which was oddly absent with the Qing. Maybe they got it from Western European slurs.
(6) The Given Sacrifice and all that Jazz. Emperor Meiji committing Seppuku aboard the Russian flagship and spilling his intestines at the feet of Prince George which would make a killer scene, wouldn’t it? But I'm aiming at realism. Besides, this would derail the whole plot line.
(7) It's not JUST balance of power. Nothing stopped Italy from Annexing San Marino for example, or France Andorra, etc.
(8) Well, that's not clear. But this is national mythology, not history.
(9) And it also deals with the Rank prince Issue.
(10) http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/HumiliationConga
Edited this to make the Russians and prince George somewhat less high handed. Meiji arrives in Vladivostok in his own vessel.
Listen to this as you read the post to get the intended vibe.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L_WW5M7lmv0
Kobe bay, May 15th 1891
The foghorn blows in the early morning, warning the approaching battleship of the approach of his own, diminutive vessel.
He has been advised against this gesture. But, in truth, Japan has no choice.
The emperor Meiji keeps a world map in his chambers, updated yearly. And every year, it seems, the parts of the world rules by non-Europeans shrink.
In 1853, when he was born the Europeans already held all of India, had planted two colonies flanking Guangdong, and had forced the Qing to open five treaty ports in southern China to European traders. Russia had just completed the subjugation of the fierce Kazakh hordes but had yet to advance into the civilized emirates of the TransOxus and was still struggling to subdue the fiercely independent mountaineers of the Caucasus. It's eastern boundaries were still confined north of the Stanovoy Mountains.
The fog clears, exposing the Russian flagship. It is massive, larger than anything the Japanese navy possesses. Larger even than the new Japanese ships being laid down in the shipyards of Liverpool.
By 1866, when forces "loyal" to him overthrew the Shogun and seemingly restored the imperial authority lost for over six centuries, the entirety of the Chinese coast, and it's inland waterways had been made open not only to traders but missionaries and armed gunboats as well. The Qing capital had been briefly occupied, it's palaces burned. France had seized the delta of the Mekong from Vietnam and had made Cambodia into a protectorate. Russia had subjugated and ethnically cleansed Circassia and Dagestan, annexed Tashkent, seized the TransAmur and the Ussuri from the Qing and had begun to sniff at the northernmost of the home islands as well. And the home islands… they too had been forcibly opened to the Europeans and treaty ports established.
"Their steam is up" Itō Sukeyuki remarks grimly. "they do not intend to remain at harbor long- they know our coastal batteries can harm even their sea-dragons"
"Then our arrival shall reassure them we have no intention of using this advantage against them- and by implication that we had no part in the murderous crime"
He has done his best throughout the past 25 years to hold back the tide, to modernize Japan without ceding control to the foreigner. He has fought one bloody civil war against some of his early supporters who would have dragged Japan to a war before it was ready. He had to give up Sakhalin to the Russians but by adroitly calling on British aid had kept them out of Tsunshima and had solidified control of Hokaido, Ryuku and the Kurile islands. The feudal samurai and ashigaru levies are now a modern conscription based army armed with the newest weapons and the navy is slowly being built up into a force capable of holding it's own to the European far eastern flotillas and the Qing fleet alike.
Is this, he wonders, how the rulers of the lesser states surrounding China felt when forced to pay tribute to the court of the Middle Kingdom? This ignomity is one that Japan avoided throughout it's history. Alone of the states of East Asia it had refused tributary relations with China, had even thrown back the Mongol hordes which swept all others, including the ancestors of these Russians, before them (1). Must Japan now fall prey to those who have claimed the mantle of the conqurer of Eurasia?
As his vessal lines up to dock alongside the Russian flagship he is greeted by a long line of Russian sailors arrayed in ranks at the lower deck. They do not maintain the stoic, opaque body language of their Japanese equivalents. The fists of many are clenched, others glare and a few even spit without being disciplined by their officers. A bad sign.
Or perhaps a good one. "undisplined rabble" Itō Sukeyuki dismisses his possible future foes. The emperor raises an eyebrow "Numerous rabble… with large guns".
"Hai. Ten more years…"
"We do not have ten more years. We may not have ten more days".
The Gai-Jin had not held still during his reign. The nations of Western Europe had carved the entire continent of Africa between them, leaving only Ethiopia and Morroco as quasi independent. The French had completed their conquest of Vietnam, humbling the Qing yet again, and exposing it's self-strengthening as a sham. The Russians have had their reverses, true, but they had completed their conquests of the emirates of central Asia a decade ago. For the first time in their history they found no open Steppe frontier to settle overcome, turning their energies to binding their vast Eurasian empire together with a belt of steel which threatened to end the protection granted Japan by its isolation and expose the home islands to the full might of a European power before its modernization was complete.
Their new crown prince, their Tsarevitch, greets him cordinally enough, seemingly mastering the grief which overwhelmed him at Kyoto. Slowly, he guides the emperor to the Bier where the Tsarevitch lies in state (2), surrounded by selected Marines. The emperor can only hope there is no Russian Tsuda Sanzo among them… though Nippon might actually fare better if one such should seek revenge on his own body rather than that of his nation (3).
"I have spoken with my father."
The interpreter swiftly conveys the prince's words (4) but it is their tone which Meiji seeks to interpret. He would have no trouble if he were Japanese. But he has had little dealings with the Russians. They are... subtly different than their western kin. Closer, perhaps, to the Mongols who had once ruled them (5). And for all that George seemed the perfect European a week ago he seems to have reverted since the murder of his brother and the honorable retribution he has levied on his killer.
Is the tone Ominous? Neutral? Conciliatory? He does not know.
"I trust he has had a chance to grieve and accept our heartfelt apologies and deepest expression of sorrow. I can assure you that our investigation have uncovered no conspiracy behind the actions of Tsuda Sanzo. It was the act of a madman, acting alone."
"We have yet to carry out our own investigation. Regardless, if it was the act of a madman, it was a madman fed on a steady diet of anti-Russian propaganda, some of it originating in the official press. At the very least your government is guilty of gross and dishonorable negligence"
"I have come to express my shame, Nippon's shame, at this dishonor. We are prepared to discuss any reparation not in conflict with the dignity of Nippon as a free nation"
"Reparation? What reparation can you possibly offer for the murder of my brother?"
Itō Sukeyuki is holding the Tanto necessary for one such reparation. He would already have used it if he thought the Russians would accept the gesture (6). But he has outlawed the practice for a reason. Nippon will only be accepted as a member in the family of nations, protected by international law in the same way the smaller nations of Europe are (7), if it sheds customs unacceptable to European opinion. Russia is all too likely to view, and present, his suicide as proof positive of the barbarity of his people.
"Are these the words of your father?"
He is prepared to commit seppuku if all else fails. Or he hopes he is. The Fog is beginning to clear and the shoreline of Kobe, still shrouded in its remains, seems inutterably beautiful. The ugly factories which have risen up around the traditional wooden houses and temples of the old city underscore the changes which his reign has wrought on his homeland. He has enjoyed more years than most of his subjects but with luck and good medical care could enjoy as many more years again. Is he truly greedy for these years? Is this what all the Samurai who had fallen back on Seppuku to regain honor felt before drawing the blade?
The voice of the Prince, oblivious to Meiji's inner conflict, breaks.
"My Father… My Father offers you the opportunity to express your sorrow at the funeral of my brother. Negotiators will be present to discuss... reparations"
He is young. And still wracked with grief and anger. He also clearly disagrees with his father. But his father shows every indication of being a man of moderation and cunning. Forcing him personally to travel to St.Petersburg, rather than sending his minister is the act of a suzerain towards his tributary. A humilitation, made all the worse by it's unprecedented nature. He had never, after all, left the home islands. No Japanese emperor ever had (8).
But the journey will take many months, the negotiations many more. Time to prepare, time to seek the protection of Britain and other powers. Time, too, for domestic opinion in Russia to calm down from the furious flames to which it had been fanned and to be mollified by his submission. Does the Tsar, like him, need to contend with factions seeking to maneuver the "great autocrat" in directions of their own choosing rather than his own? Is this his way of outmaneuvering them, of creating a reality which cannot be overturned? He can only join the Tsar in his dance and hope they are dancing to the same tune.
"Inform your honored father that I will make preparations to travel to St Petersburg immediately."
"Not St Petersburg. Vladivostok. My brother was to drive the first spike into the Trans-Siberian railway and it is there, at its Pacific terminus that he will be buried. The Governor General of the TransAmur and representitives from the foreign ministry will discuss terms with you and you ministers there."
Burying his son at the terminus of the railway tying his empire together, and projecting it's power toward Japan is a powerful symbol of course (9). And forcing him to travel there discuss terms with a mere frontier official is an even greater humiliation than traveling to his capital (10). And it leaves him, or rather his government, mere days to seek the intervention of the other powers.
No, this is not the tune he thought it was.
The deck of the Russian flagship shudders as its turbines slowly begin to spin.
"I trust that you shall escort us out of the harbor and into international waters. "
(1) Well… not exactly. But true in essence and this is national mythology, not history.
(2) How does one keep a dead tsarevitch from going rank at sea? Don’t go there.
(3) For I am winterborn…
(4) Nicholas, George and Michael spoke fluent French, and passable German, English and Italian. Emperor Meiji did not. His childhood education did not include it and it was too late to catch up when he assumed power. Which didn’t stop him from being a kick-ass emperor. Which Nicholas was not.
(5) If I seem to be making too much of this it's because of the association of the Russians with the Mongols in Japanese popular culture and imagination at this time (and up to WWII). An association which was oddly absent with the Qing. Maybe they got it from Western European slurs.
(6) The Given Sacrifice and all that Jazz. Emperor Meiji committing Seppuku aboard the Russian flagship and spilling his intestines at the feet of Prince George which would make a killer scene, wouldn’t it? But I'm aiming at realism. Besides, this would derail the whole plot line.
(7) It's not JUST balance of power. Nothing stopped Italy from Annexing San Marino for example, or France Andorra, etc.
(8) Well, that's not clear. But this is national mythology, not history.
(9) And it also deals with the Rank prince Issue.
(10) http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/HumiliationConga
yboxman
Banned
#3 Railroaded
Just a snippet to keep Y'all biting.
20th May, Russian empire, Vladivostok
The Mosquitos which were the bane of Siberia in summer swarmed around Emperor Meiji’s face as he bore the front right pall of Nicholas’s casket. Tsarevitch George, to his left had already been stung, but showed no sign of irritation as the funeral procession wound through the streets of Vladivostok.
Vladivostok was a town like no other in the Great Russian Empire. Seized by a combination of strong-arm tactics and diplomacy from the declining Qing a generation ago, its Siberian Tiger coat of arms fluttered over a polyglot population.
Great Russian officials and soldiers, Buryat descended Cossacks, Wildly gesticulating Armenian and Jewish shopkeepers, Sullen Poles exiled from their homeland in the wake of numerous failed insurrections, dour Baltic fishermen and representatives of nearly every other tribe and nation conquered by the servants of the great white Tsar all rubbed elbows in the raucous port.
As the funeral procession proceeded onwards through Vladivostok’s single paved road and into the newly constructed outskirts of the rapidly expanding town the Emperor Meiji recognized other, more familiar, groups.
Han Ginseng gatherers, often well-armed and tightly clustered together. Industrious Korean farmers, many wearing crosses, who had fled the famine and rebellions which had plagued the Hermit kingdom over the past generation. Bewildered Udege tribesmen, still reeling from turnover of the Qing king log with the Romanov king stork, carrying pelts and fish in tribute to the governor.
And Yes, Japanese as well. Some are merchants, representatives of the great houses of Kobe and Osaka. Most, however…
Yet another cluster of Kimono clad Karayuki-San (1) knelt in the muddy streets of the town, bowing deeply as the emperor passed. It would not do, of course, to acknowledge them but he wondered how many of them might be Gen'yōsha (2) agents. Whatever Matsukata might say he did not believe the group was sound or could be reliably manipulated. Indeed, for all of their professed veneration of the emperor the group’s leaders might well view his death in Vladivostok as a unique opportunity to drag Japan to war, and raise their own political fortunes.
His guards keep both imagined amazon assassins and Irate Russians at bay as the funeral procession makes its way to the meadow at the town’s outskirts. The once pristine grass has been trampled muddy by the audience and the honor guard.
A grave has already been dug and as Mutsuhito gratefully and carefully discharges his burden at its side he allows his weary body to relax. The march has been made much more difficult by the differences in height between the Japanese and Russian pallbearers, and the venerable years of most of the former. That, too, he suspects to be deliberate, made to showcase the superiority and vigor of the Russian interlopers.
But it has, at least, relieved the hostility of the Russian populace.
Tsarevitch George, aside from dabbing at the mosquito bites on his face with an alcohol soaked handkerchief shows little sign of physical fatigue and plays well to the emotions of the crowd as he ascends the stage overlooking the meadow.
Without an interpreter nearby Mutsuhito has no way to follow his speech, as the other Japanese Pallbearers, while proficient between them in French and English, understand only a smattering of Russian (3).
He can understand the significance of the post speech hammering of a golden spike into the rails lying on the newly constructed earthen embankment overlooking the gravesite just fine, though.
The Russians do not, quite, bury the prince under the railway as his own people might have done to safeguard the endeavor with the power of the imperial Kami. But it is close enough to make the point.
"Where the Russian flag has been raised, it must never be lowered!”
(1) Girls sold by their families for overseas prostitution/Sex Slavery. For some reason Japanese girls dominated the sex trade industry in East Asia and the Pacific until the early 20th century. Their networks were often operated and infiltrated by (2) for income, intelligence, sabotage and blackmail.
(2) Black ocean society. Precursors to the Black river society. Precursors to the Pan-Asian militarists which led a successful, modernizing native local power to go apeshit and commit collective suicide by invading China, provoking the USSR, and then going to war against the USA and the British empire. Why fight one great power when you can fight four at once?
(3) In other words, I had no patience to study the style of Imperial Russian speeches and fit them to this occasion. Assume it is appropriately somber, yet uplifting.
Just a snippet to keep Y'all biting.
20th May, Russian empire, Vladivostok
The Mosquitos which were the bane of Siberia in summer swarmed around Emperor Meiji’s face as he bore the front right pall of Nicholas’s casket. Tsarevitch George, to his left had already been stung, but showed no sign of irritation as the funeral procession wound through the streets of Vladivostok.
Vladivostok was a town like no other in the Great Russian Empire. Seized by a combination of strong-arm tactics and diplomacy from the declining Qing a generation ago, its Siberian Tiger coat of arms fluttered over a polyglot population.
Great Russian officials and soldiers, Buryat descended Cossacks, Wildly gesticulating Armenian and Jewish shopkeepers, Sullen Poles exiled from their homeland in the wake of numerous failed insurrections, dour Baltic fishermen and representatives of nearly every other tribe and nation conquered by the servants of the great white Tsar all rubbed elbows in the raucous port.
As the funeral procession proceeded onwards through Vladivostok’s single paved road and into the newly constructed outskirts of the rapidly expanding town the Emperor Meiji recognized other, more familiar, groups.
Han Ginseng gatherers, often well-armed and tightly clustered together. Industrious Korean farmers, many wearing crosses, who had fled the famine and rebellions which had plagued the Hermit kingdom over the past generation. Bewildered Udege tribesmen, still reeling from turnover of the Qing king log with the Romanov king stork, carrying pelts and fish in tribute to the governor.
And Yes, Japanese as well. Some are merchants, representatives of the great houses of Kobe and Osaka. Most, however…
Yet another cluster of Kimono clad Karayuki-San (1) knelt in the muddy streets of the town, bowing deeply as the emperor passed. It would not do, of course, to acknowledge them but he wondered how many of them might be Gen'yōsha (2) agents. Whatever Matsukata might say he did not believe the group was sound or could be reliably manipulated. Indeed, for all of their professed veneration of the emperor the group’s leaders might well view his death in Vladivostok as a unique opportunity to drag Japan to war, and raise their own political fortunes.
His guards keep both imagined amazon assassins and Irate Russians at bay as the funeral procession makes its way to the meadow at the town’s outskirts. The once pristine grass has been trampled muddy by the audience and the honor guard.
A grave has already been dug and as Mutsuhito gratefully and carefully discharges his burden at its side he allows his weary body to relax. The march has been made much more difficult by the differences in height between the Japanese and Russian pallbearers, and the venerable years of most of the former. That, too, he suspects to be deliberate, made to showcase the superiority and vigor of the Russian interlopers.
But it has, at least, relieved the hostility of the Russian populace.
Tsarevitch George, aside from dabbing at the mosquito bites on his face with an alcohol soaked handkerchief shows little sign of physical fatigue and plays well to the emotions of the crowd as he ascends the stage overlooking the meadow.
Without an interpreter nearby Mutsuhito has no way to follow his speech, as the other Japanese Pallbearers, while proficient between them in French and English, understand only a smattering of Russian (3).
He can understand the significance of the post speech hammering of a golden spike into the rails lying on the newly constructed earthen embankment overlooking the gravesite just fine, though.
The Russians do not, quite, bury the prince under the railway as his own people might have done to safeguard the endeavor with the power of the imperial Kami. But it is close enough to make the point.
"Where the Russian flag has been raised, it must never be lowered!”
(1) Girls sold by their families for overseas prostitution/Sex Slavery. For some reason Japanese girls dominated the sex trade industry in East Asia and the Pacific until the early 20th century. Their networks were often operated and infiltrated by (2) for income, intelligence, sabotage and blackmail.
(2) Black ocean society. Precursors to the Black river society. Precursors to the Pan-Asian militarists which led a successful, modernizing native local power to go apeshit and commit collective suicide by invading China, provoking the USSR, and then going to war against the USA and the British empire. Why fight one great power when you can fight four at once?
(3) In other words, I had no patience to study the style of Imperial Russian speeches and fit them to this occasion. Assume it is appropriately somber, yet uplifting.
yboxman
Banned
#4 Russian Boiler room
Russian empire, Vladivostok May 22nd
The negotiations had been initiated with almost unseemly haste following the funeral. Emperor Meiji had done his best to play for time. First, he suggested they might call upon the mediation of the American administration, historically friendly with Russia (1) to arrive at a fair and equitable resolution.
This suggestion was brusquely rebuffed. His government’s frantic appeal for British intervention received only ambiguous responses. His own attempts to hold off negotiations until additional “financial and military experts” arrived from Japan was rejected and met with the courteous proposals to use Russian telegraph facilities to communicate with said experts (2).
And now it came down to this. A long table in a small interior room in the governor’s mansion (3). Himself, Enomoto Takeaki, Itō Sukeyuki, an interpreter fluent in Russian and French, and a few others.
And, on the other side of the table, a mass of Russian officials, none of them very high in the Russian imperial hierarchy. But then again, they don’t have to be. With the Telegraph the Great White Tsar and his ministers can use them as sock puppets to convey their words and instructions, without delay, while using their representatives as buffers to delay any official response or recognition of Japanese objections.
Even during the preliminary pleasantries, a Russian courier is constantly scrambling in and out of the room, no doubt conveying instructions and updating the Tsar by Telegraph.
As the door opens, yet again, Emperor Meiji suppresses a sigh of irritation.
It is not the courier who enters.
Tsesarevich George sweeps into the room and immediately takes his seat at the head of the table, betwixt the Russian and Japanese delegations. With no preamble he starts dictating terms in terse English, leaving the interpreter in a paroxysm of embarresment.
Enomoto listens intently and then turns to the emperor.
“They want the Kuriles. All of them, not just a return to the 1855 border. And exclusive fishing rights in the sea of Okhotsk”
A personal injury to Enomoto. He was the one who had negotiated the 1877 treaty of St. Petersburg which exchanged Japanese claims to Sakhlain for the Kuriles.
“What else?”
“An indemmity, of course. It’s massive, nearly fifteen times the entire naval budget for this Fiscal year. We can’t pay it in the current Fiscal year. They are suggesting a ten year schedule for payment for 70% of it… and that we make a downpayment in kind for the reaminder”
“In kind?”
“They want the Hashidate. They are prepared to accept the Itsukushima and Matsushima once they are completed in lieu of some of the later payments”
Itō gasps. The Hashidate,on which he arrived in Vladivostok, had only been launched in March (4). It is the newest, strongest vessel in the Japanese navy, paid for by massive popular subscriptions and crushing taxes on Japan’s rice farmers. To surrender it would be a massive symbolic blow to Japanese pride- as well as leave Japan hideously vulnerable to any Russian, or even Qing aggression.
There had been riots over the 1891 budget and it had failed to pass necessitating new elections slated for February 1892. These demands, if acceded to, would make those riots look like a tea party.
Enomoto’s eyes are filled with pain. He too, after all, is a naval man. Indeed, it was he who led the unbeaten Tokugawa navy against the Satsuma and Chosu forces during the Boshin war.
“And they are demanding an occupation of Hokaido, Ryuku and Tsunshima until the indemmity is paid in full”
He had also led a seperatist regime in Hokaido for nearly six months following the fall of the Shogun before surrendering to the emperor. Sepratist sentiments still linger among the Japanese on the island, as do its Ainu natives.
There is no question as to Sepratist sentiments among the Ryukans. Only recently was the native monarchy abolished and the Qing only reluctantly ceded tributary claims on the islands as well.
Might the Russians use an occupation to fan such sentiments into open secession?
Emperor Meiji shakes his head.
“We can’t accept these terms. Even if I did they would never pass in the Diet”
Enomoto raises his hand in moderation.
“These are opening terms. They are deliberately making demands they do not expect us to accept so that we find their true terms more acceptable.”
“Or else they are seeking a pretext for war” Warns Ito.
Meiji searches the face of the young Tsesarevich for hints. Does he aim at war or peace?
There is only one way to find out.
(1) Weird, right? Geopolitics makes for strange bedfellows. Historically the U.S saw Russia as a counterweight to the still menacing British empire and Russia viewed the U.S the same way. The great reapproachment between the the Anglo Saxon powers, and Russia’s encroachment into Northern China in the aftermath of the Boxer rebellion changed the American attitude, but following the treaty of Portsmouth, Russo-American relations showed every sign of being friendly… until the Bolsheviks pulled off their coup and pulled out of WWI.
(2) Which are, of course, being tapped by the Okharana.
(3) No boiler. But these are boiler room tactics.
(4) And is the only member of the Matsushima class cruisers to have been completed in a Japanese naval yard. The other two were ordered from France.
Russian empire, Vladivostok May 22nd
The negotiations had been initiated with almost unseemly haste following the funeral. Emperor Meiji had done his best to play for time. First, he suggested they might call upon the mediation of the American administration, historically friendly with Russia (1) to arrive at a fair and equitable resolution.
This suggestion was brusquely rebuffed. His government’s frantic appeal for British intervention received only ambiguous responses. His own attempts to hold off negotiations until additional “financial and military experts” arrived from Japan was rejected and met with the courteous proposals to use Russian telegraph facilities to communicate with said experts (2).
And now it came down to this. A long table in a small interior room in the governor’s mansion (3). Himself, Enomoto Takeaki, Itō Sukeyuki, an interpreter fluent in Russian and French, and a few others.
And, on the other side of the table, a mass of Russian officials, none of them very high in the Russian imperial hierarchy. But then again, they don’t have to be. With the Telegraph the Great White Tsar and his ministers can use them as sock puppets to convey their words and instructions, without delay, while using their representatives as buffers to delay any official response or recognition of Japanese objections.
Even during the preliminary pleasantries, a Russian courier is constantly scrambling in and out of the room, no doubt conveying instructions and updating the Tsar by Telegraph.
As the door opens, yet again, Emperor Meiji suppresses a sigh of irritation.
It is not the courier who enters.
Tsesarevich George sweeps into the room and immediately takes his seat at the head of the table, betwixt the Russian and Japanese delegations. With no preamble he starts dictating terms in terse English, leaving the interpreter in a paroxysm of embarresment.
Enomoto listens intently and then turns to the emperor.
“They want the Kuriles. All of them, not just a return to the 1855 border. And exclusive fishing rights in the sea of Okhotsk”
A personal injury to Enomoto. He was the one who had negotiated the 1877 treaty of St. Petersburg which exchanged Japanese claims to Sakhlain for the Kuriles.
“What else?”
“An indemmity, of course. It’s massive, nearly fifteen times the entire naval budget for this Fiscal year. We can’t pay it in the current Fiscal year. They are suggesting a ten year schedule for payment for 70% of it… and that we make a downpayment in kind for the reaminder”
“In kind?”
“They want the Hashidate. They are prepared to accept the Itsukushima and Matsushima once they are completed in lieu of some of the later payments”
Itō gasps. The Hashidate,on which he arrived in Vladivostok, had only been launched in March (4). It is the newest, strongest vessel in the Japanese navy, paid for by massive popular subscriptions and crushing taxes on Japan’s rice farmers. To surrender it would be a massive symbolic blow to Japanese pride- as well as leave Japan hideously vulnerable to any Russian, or even Qing aggression.
There had been riots over the 1891 budget and it had failed to pass necessitating new elections slated for February 1892. These demands, if acceded to, would make those riots look like a tea party.
Enomoto’s eyes are filled with pain. He too, after all, is a naval man. Indeed, it was he who led the unbeaten Tokugawa navy against the Satsuma and Chosu forces during the Boshin war.
“And they are demanding an occupation of Hokaido, Ryuku and Tsunshima until the indemmity is paid in full”
He had also led a seperatist regime in Hokaido for nearly six months following the fall of the Shogun before surrendering to the emperor. Sepratist sentiments still linger among the Japanese on the island, as do its Ainu natives.
There is no question as to Sepratist sentiments among the Ryukans. Only recently was the native monarchy abolished and the Qing only reluctantly ceded tributary claims on the islands as well.
Might the Russians use an occupation to fan such sentiments into open secession?
Emperor Meiji shakes his head.
“We can’t accept these terms. Even if I did they would never pass in the Diet”
Enomoto raises his hand in moderation.
“These are opening terms. They are deliberately making demands they do not expect us to accept so that we find their true terms more acceptable.”
“Or else they are seeking a pretext for war” Warns Ito.
Meiji searches the face of the young Tsesarevich for hints. Does he aim at war or peace?
There is only one way to find out.
(1) Weird, right? Geopolitics makes for strange bedfellows. Historically the U.S saw Russia as a counterweight to the still menacing British empire and Russia viewed the U.S the same way. The great reapproachment between the the Anglo Saxon powers, and Russia’s encroachment into Northern China in the aftermath of the Boxer rebellion changed the American attitude, but following the treaty of Portsmouth, Russo-American relations showed every sign of being friendly… until the Bolsheviks pulled off their coup and pulled out of WWI.
(2) Which are, of course, being tapped by the Okharana.
(3) No boiler. But these are boiler room tactics.
(4) And is the only member of the Matsushima class cruisers to have been completed in a Japanese naval yard. The other two were ordered from France.
Damn Russia is pushing its greedy hands here. I look forward to the counter proposals from Japan and how Russia might respond. Russia might want to be careful, as they may bite off more than they can chew if war comes. Britain just might "sell" Japan some older ships to hold off the Bear in the Pacific.
True, the British can definitely help the Japanese.
But this is before the First Sino-Japanese War and the Japanese haven't even proven themselves worthy of anybody's ally. The British may just try to focus on other countries, i.e. Korea and China, for a balance against Russia as the latter slowly swallows Japan whole.
If Russia is going to go for this much, they might risk cutting into American interests as well. As much as both have enough to fear from Britannia enough to close ranks, I doubt the Americans want the balance to tilt too far that the Russians can push them out of the Pacific on their own.
yboxman
Banned
None of the Russian demands threaten American mercantile interests in Japan- and the Americans are not yet thinking in terms of naval bases. Furthermore, they have a long lasting friendly relation with the Russians and are unlikely to put up much of a fuss
The demand to occupy Tsunshima and Ryuku ARE a "threat" to British interests insofar as the British have a general aversion to facing another potentially hostile fleet in waters vital to British commerce. Especially if that fleet belongs to a country with a menacing army in centralAsia whose name starts with an "R" and ends with an "A". That's why they intervened in 1871 to get Russia off of Tsunshima.
But in 1871 Russia was internationally isolated and had not completed the conquest of Central Asia. in 1891 it is allied with France and is one week away from Herat. The British will help the Japanese up to a point out of general aversion to any Russian advance. But one only helps regicidal *racial expletive* up to a point.
The proper analogy is, perhaps to the 1877 Russo-Turkish war. Far more vital interests were involved there, and the losses to the Ottoman empire far more extensive than what RUssia is demanding from the Japanese. Furthermore, the Russian position Vs the British was far less advantageous, with AUstria prepared to ally with Britain. A war would have liklely ended in British victory- but at great financial costs.
Britain agreed to Russian annexation of Kars and Bessarbia, Greekand Serbian territorial gains and Bulgarian "autonomy" because of moral issues (Bulgarian horror) and because it was unprepared to bear those financial costs in order to avert relatively minor Russian gains.
Ditto with the Sino-French war , the Russian conquest of Central Asia, the occupation of Pandjeh or any number of other small wars in which it's interests were negatively impacted in minor ways by other powers. Britian was prepared to fight to uphold it's interests- but only when the issues seemed truely vital (including, of course, its "sacred honor"),when it had allies, and when the cost did not seem too prohibitive.
Of course, if war does break out, and the Russian fleet interferes with the Japan trade, let alone actually subjugate it politically, protests are going to be flying to both whitehall and the Whitehouse and intervention-mediation is definately on the table. That's the one Card Japan has and it will attempt to use it to get the Russians to back down from at least some of their demands.
abc123
Banned
IMO the Japanese might accept giving the Kuriles, fishing rights in Okhotsk Sea, occupation of Tsushima. Also, paying the indemnity, but much smaller than asked ( 2-3 naval budgets ).
Basicly, those opening terms are the terms that Russia would dictate to defeated Japan, and Japan isn't nowhere near that.
Basicly, those opening terms are the terms that Russia would dictate to defeated Japan, and Japan isn't nowhere near that.
One thing that occurs to me is that this Japan is going to be far more hesitant about intervening in any Korean crises lest they give the Russians a pretext for war- which probably pushes back the Sino-Japanese war a few years.
yboxman
Banned
From Paul Kennedy the total number of active duty Japanese millitary and naval personnel in 1890 was 84,000 to Russia's 677,000. It's Warship tonnage was 41,000 to Russia's 180,000.
That gap narrowed very much in the run-up to the Russo-Japanese war. in 1900 the armed forces ratio was 234,000 to 1,162,000 and warship tonnage was 187,000 tons to 383,000 tons
The pertinent question, however, is how much force each side can bring to the theater of conflict and how many forces do they have present when the conflict starts.
That question also relates to what the Theater of conflict IS and that, in turn, is determined by who controls the seas.
Russia only has 60-70 thousand troops or so east of Lake Baikal at this point. When Russia invaded Manchuria during the Boxer Rebellion it did so with 180,000 troops but at that point the Trans-Siberian, though incomplete, had been greatly extended eastwards. Russian war plans from 1881 during the Ili crisis envisaged employing no more than 100,000 troops in the Eastern theater Vs the Qing and after Six months of mobilization.
So let's assume that in 1891, if Russia really pushes it, it can supply 150,000 or so troops in Manchuria and the Maritimes.
Japan was able to mobilize 200,000 troops the invasion of Korea and Manchuria in 1894.
But this was after massive expasnion of the armed forces- so, again let's assume 150,000 or so troops.
In other words, it's unlikely that either side will think it has much of a chance to invade and occupy their rival's home territory.
The question can therefore be parsed down to who controls the seas.
I THINK that given the flotilla which accompanied Nicholas II to the Pacific the Russians had a significant edge in ships over the Japanese in the Pacific until 1893, when the three 4,000 Ton+ protected cruisers being built for Japan in France (Matsushima, Itsukushima) and England (Yoshino,) arrive.
Given the rapid advance in naval technologies it won’t do either side much good to purchase ships much more than 5 years old from the other powers, none of the politically powerful major navies are likely to be happy with selling or "selling" newer ships which are already afloat, and building and launching a new cruiser takes a minimum of a year. It's safe to assume that France, which was japan's main supplier at this point is going to find "technical difficulties" in rushing any orders. And if Japan fails to meet it's financial commitments due to the strain of war it may even see the cruisers nearing completion to Russia.
Obviously, if the Baltic fleet Manages to steam it's way to the Pacific it's game over for Japan. But that involves time and diplomatic complications.
Bottom line: Russia can probably dominate the seas from the get go and has the prospects or reinforcements which will make any Japanese naval attempts utter suicide. This is NOT the equivalent of what happened in 1904- the Japanese navy at this point is still in it's infancy and much, much relatively weaker.
OTOH, reinforcing it's land units will be much slower and more expensive for Russia- but it can probably over time, achieve theater wide near parity with the Japanese and all of it’s personnel will be regular troops or Cossacks, not reservists. So force quality will be better compared to 1904.
So that means that Russia can probably isolate any small island or island group it sets it's mind to- which means it can achieve local superiority by land in the Kuriles and Tsunshima. The Ryukus, OTOH, are rather far away from any land based forces so taking Okinawa is more iffy. Isolating Hokaido from the mainland and landing forces there is probably not possible without a year or so of preparation.
Japan can't invade Valdivostosk and hope to resupply it's forces. It MIGHT have a chance of invading Sakhlain and supplying it's forces there before Russia can reinforce it’s Far Eastern Garrison.
As far as blockade goes I think Russia can probably only blockade a limited number of Japanese ports at any given time before the Baltic fleet arrives unless it wins a desicive engagement with the Japanese fleet. Try for more and it risks being defeated in detail. I suppose it might try to bottle up the main Japanese fleet in one or two ports (Kobe and Nagasaki probably).
But if and when the Baltic fleet arrives then Russia can probably ravage the Japanese coast at will. Of course, that involves diplomatic complications.
One advantage that Japan has in this war is that it's admirals and politicians had been focused on the possibility of a war with Russia since the 1870s and probably have plans and contingincies in place. Russia seems to have given Japan very little consideration in it's 1880s plans so it will have to improvise.
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