“good” Nixon comes through on civil rights, lesser Watergate not discovered, resulting race relations in U.S. through 2000?

[GeographyDude]

In OTL, the Nixon administration did quietly and successfully push through school desegregation with George Shultz as their point person. Nixon also successfully pushed for more federal funding into sickle cell anemia, calling the previous neglect shameful.

If Nixon does more of this — and importantly gets credit — how does this affect ongoing race relations in the U.S. over approximately the next twenty-five years?

For example, does the Clinton administration, or any Democratic administration in the 1990s, ramp up mass incarceration and roll with the cultural myth of a “super predator” as some kind of boogie man?

To avoid current politics, please end the projections by around the year 2000. Thanks.

 

[Hcira1]

I can't see Nixon actually getting credit. Judging by voting demographics during his presidential elections, Nixon was not popular with minority communities, and I also see absolutely no incentive for democrats to allow Nixon to take any credit for this. The most I can see happening from this is Nixon starting to get credit several decades after he's out of office once he and his political legacy are no longer a threat. A lesser extent of how Eisenhower has come to be praised by both sides. I can see democratic politicians in 2020 saying stuff like "what happened to the party of Nixon?" to attack Republicans, but I can't imagine democrats in 1980 ITTL praising Nixon or his administration.

This isn't meant to call democrats bad for this or anything, its just a political reality that its not good to praise your opponent when they can still hurt you.

A modern example from the other side of this would be Bill Clinton. Republicans infamously were ruthless in their attacks on Clinton until Obama came into office and then all of a sudden Bill Clinton wasn't so bad anymore.

 

[GeographyDude]

Being Nixon

The landmark New York Times bestselling biography of Richard M. Nixon, a political savant whose gaping character flaws would drive him from the presidency and forever taint his legacy. “A biography of eloquence and breadth . . . No single volume about Nixon’s long and interesting life could be...

books.google.com

In the Alexander v. Holmes, the Supreme Court ruled, no more delay, schools had desegregate starting right now (case decided Oct. 29, 1969).

Starting in the Spring of 1970, one by one, George Shultz would invite to the White House the biracial committees which he had helped set up in each of the 7 southern states still dragging their feet. He let them argue about two hours on the theory of “getting it out of their systems,” then invite in Attorney General John Mitchell who the white members thought of as on “their” side, but who in his gruff manner while puffing on a pipe, instead would say that he was going to enforce the law.

In the afternoon, Shultz would let them argue for about another two hours, and then when the time seemed right . . .

“ . . . walk them across the hall to meet President Nixon. The president would calmly say they were all standing in a room where great decisions had been made. The president had made his decision to enforce the law. Now it was time for the state committees to make their decision.

“Shultz had been unimpressed when he met with Nixon in a Los Angeles hotel room during the 1968 campaign. ‘He was defensive around me.’ But as president, speaking to the awed Southern community leaders, ‘he was magnificent. A performer,’ Shultz recalled to the author. . . ”

Maybe if Nixon had appointed more middle-of-the-road Justices to the Supreme Court. And in particular, not have appointed Harrold Carswell as some kind of middle finger to the Senate after they had voted down his other nominee due to financial gray area issues.

I guess we all can be both big-hearted and vindictive, depending on the circumstances. I guess Nixon tended to swing more widely back and forth than the average person.

But in general, if we get more good policy, less chaos.

If things go somewhat better in the country (perhaps economically, most of all), then by 1974, instead of Watergate devouring all political discussion, Nixon’s getting credit for school desegregation, including how calmly and competently it was done.

 

[GeographyDude]

. . . just a political reality that its not good to praise your opponent when they can still hurt you. . .

But if Nixon’s receiving good press — and the media tends to love inside baseball type stories — the Dems may not spend too much time criticizing him either.

Or if prominent Democrats take a flyer at criticizing Nixon as too cautious on civil rights, or too much compromise and half measure, and this criticism falls flat, these prominent Dems such as Hubert Humphrey, Carl Albert, Tip O’Neill, etc, probably move on to other issues.

 

[GeographyDude]

The Real Origins of the Religious Right

They’ll tell you it was abortion. Sorry, the historical record’s clear: It was segregation.

www.politico.com

“In 1969, the first year of desegregation, the number of white students enrolled in public schools in Holmes County [Mississippi] dropped from 771 to 28; the following year, that number fell to zero.”

It’s like an Internet feeding frenzy. Once it starts, no parent wants their kid to be different and ostracized.

And these “private” schools led to a second major court case of whether nonprofit organizations which engage in racial discrimination should have their tax-exempt status revoked.

So, plenty of room for a better, calmer, more strategic — no, scratch that, Nixon was always plenty strategic enough. Let’s say a more jazz improv and adapting-to-immediate-circumstances Nixon.

Plenty of room for improvement on the issue.

Please paint me a medium high trajectory on equal education and civil rights.

 

[Amadeus]

The best way to do this is Nixon wins in 1960 and signs a Civil Rights Act into law.

 

[Sam R.]

The best way to do this is Nixon wins in 1960 and signs a Civil Rights Act into law.

A “northern” strategy Nixon? Another “party flip” of which bourgeois party knifes you, and which apologises after knifing you?

Have we done a 1960s flip before?

 

[Amadeus]

A “northern” strategy Nixon? Another “party flip” of which bourgeois party knifes you, and which apologises after knifing you?

Have we done a 1960s flip before?

I'm not sure if African-Americans would flip back to the GOP since Congress was controlled by Dems in 1964, but Nixon signing some sort of Civil Rights Act would certainly help.

 

[GeographyDude]

The best way to do this is Nixon wins in 1960 and signs a Civil Rights Act into law.

A “northern” strategy Nixon? . . .

I welcome multiple possibilities dancing in a single thread.

However, I’m personally going to focus on Nixon ‘68 - ‘76 going better.

 

[Amadeus]

I welcome multiple possibilities dancing in a single thread.

However, I’m personally going to focus on Nixon ‘68 - ‘76 going better.

To do that then Nixon needs to avoid making use of the Southern Strategy. No way he is seen as the "civil rights President" if he courts Southern segregationists.

Perhaps he chooses Volpe instead of Agnew and tries to outflank the Dems on civil rights in 1968?

 

[GeographyDude]

Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States, Richard Nixon, 1971

Spine title reads: Public Papers of the Presidents, Richard Nixon, 1971. Contains public messages and statements of the President of the United States released by the White House from January 2-December 30, 1971. Also includes appendices and an index. Item 574-A.Public Papers of the Presidents...

books.google.com

Please see the bottom of this page and the top of the next one.

Richard Nixon in written message to Congress on Feb. 18, 1971–

“It is a sad and shameful fact that the causes of this disease have been largely neglected throughout our history. We cannot rewrite this record of neglect, but we can reverse it. To this end, this administration is increasing its budget for research and treatment of sickle cell disease fivefold, to a new total of $6 million.”​

And about a year later, Nixon signed the National Sickle Cell Anemia Control Act.

However, per the wikipedia article on Richard Nixon, he also sought to reduce overall federal spending on health. If this was good economic times, this would never had been an issue. As it was, both LBJ and Nixon sought to fight the Vietnam War without raising taxes. So, you had too long a period of deficit spending and inflation became entrenched through people’s expectations.


On sickle cell anemia, please also see this more recent article which includes most of the above Nixon quote.
Nov. 4, 2017:

Sickle Cell Patients Endure Discrimination, Poor Care And Shortened Lives

About 100,000 people in the United States have sickle cell disease, and most of them are African-American. While there is effective care for the disease, it's difficult for patients to obtain.

www.npr.org

 

[Amadeus]

I think to have a "good" Nixon he would need to have a personality change. Although highly intelligent, Nixon was naturally envious, paranoid, vengeful, and he viewed himself as above the law. He wasn't temperamentally fit to be President.

 

[Expat]

Rather than an immediate sea change (which I’m not saying is impossible), I’m imagining the effects of a “competent” underhanded Nixon, who is just allowed (via his successes) to be more publicly moderate. He is the instant party elder, and through his (controlled) paranoia and backroom savvy, he manages to shape the party in the ways he sees fit.

He takes on the conservative movement and wins, partially thanks to the operatives that would IOTL flock to the conservative cause when Nixon’s brand grew poisonous.

What this probably means is that the old guard racists feel more pressure to step down in favor of a new generation of more careful racists- so your Stroms and Jessies start thinking of moving on in the early 80s, while your thouroughly Nixonian Newts get support a few election cycles earlier in the mid-70s.

Newt and fellow clones are not going to have any problems acting in a more guarded and moderate, Nixonian way, as long as they can play devil’s advocate in public to every proposed advance in society. They’ll point to the government as a vanguard against radical change, be it from Bircher or Black Panther.

Policy-wise I think the GOP’s conservative trend can be slowed by these actions, but not stopped. I would be surprised, for example, if the number of pro-choice Republicans didn’t continue to drop towards zero. Perhaps that caucus can hold on for another 6-8 years ITTL. And being overly questioning of climate change seems exactly like the kind of thing that will catch on with Nixonians (while at the same time supporting depollution efforts as a consumer advocacy thing, and maybe doing a better job of prepping our infrastructure). Guns are kind of a non-starter, and a less partisan GOP might mean even greater bipartisanship on 2nd amendment support from a faction of the Dems.

The main difference will be seen well after 2000 in things like general attitude toward the government.

 

[Thomas Jefferson]

IOTL Nixon campaigned on a 'Black Capitalism' initiative that basically consisted of federal loans for businesses in African American communities. I don't think it was ever seriously funded, but it it had been, it could have helped the Republican Party's performance with African American voters over time. It wouldn't be enough to make African-American's vote majority Republican, but if 10-20 percent of African-Americans (probably mainly upper-middle-class professionals and business owners) voted Republican, it would have a major impact on internal incentives for the Republican Party. People like Thurmond and Helms would be marginalized while people likeJack Kemp and JC Watts would be more prominent. The Republican Party would still embrace social conservatism, but with less of a racial edge. You might also see a corresponding shift in the Democratic party, with white Southerners remaining Democrats longer or defecting to a more long-lasting American Independent Party.

 

[Vanguard45]

IOTL Nixon campaigned on a 'Black Capitalism' initiative that basically consisted of federal loans for businesses in African American communities. I don't think it was ever seriously funded, but it it had been, it could have helped the Republican Party's performance with African American voters over time. It wouldn't be enough to make African-American's vote majority Republican, but if 10-20 percent of African-Americans (probably mainly upper-middle-class professionals and business owners) voted Republican, it would have a major impact on internal incentives for the Republican Party. People like Thurmond and Helms would be marginalized while people likeJack Kemp and JC Watts would be more prominent. The Republican Party would still embrace social conservatism, but with less of a racial edge. You might also see a corresponding shift in the Democratic party, with white Southerners remaining Democrats longer or defecting to a more long-lasting American Independent Party.

As someone who is overall a conservative (leaning to the left in some areas). This sounds like a dream party to me.

 

[marathag]

Guns are kind of a non-starter,

Nixon was pretty much set on his belief that only criminals used handguns, otherwise should be restricted to LEO and Military.
The original 1934 National Firearms Act was to have put handguns just as restricted as supressors and machine guns, till pressure got them removed

 

[GeographyDude]

To do that then Nixon needs to avoid making use of the Southern Strategy. No way he is seen as the "civil rights President" if he courts Southern segregationists.

Perhaps he chooses Volpe instead of Agnew and tries to outflank the Dems on civil rights in 1968?

That’ll make it too easy!

I want the full nastiness of Nixon’s “southern strategy.” He accuses the Supreme Court of “coddling” criminals, and all the rest. All the dog whistles.

And yet, starting with helping school desegregation along with his low-key, successful OTL method, he’s able to move from success to success. And even though not too big a percentage of African-Americans may vote for him in ‘72, many black voters may say, yeah, he talked the ol’ southern game, but when it came to actual policy, ol’ Nixon actually did pretty good.

And when Nixon’s second term ends on Jan. 20, 1977, he’s well-regarded with a reasonably high approval rating, on civil rights, and a number of other areas as well.

 

[GeographyDude]

. . . Newt and fellow clones are not going to have any problems acting in a more guarded and moderate, Nixonian way, as long as they can play devil’s advocate in public to every proposed advance in society. . .

Possibly, this is where the two party system becomes highly functional with the Republicans coming to advocate slow-medium change to acknowleged problems, and the Dems fast-medium change.

And more from what I’ve read later, I think of Newt Gingrich as a scorched earth guy who basically careens from one hot-button issue to another. Maybe I do the brother an injustice! (For those less familiar, Gingrich represented a district north of Atlanta and was speaker of the U.S. House from ‘95 to ‘99.)

 

[Aisha Clan-Clan]

A bit smoother and less polarized. Nixon's signing national healthcare into law as would have happened without watergate means you see earlier shift of working class whites/minorities to GOP. Given ah status quo pressures this means say 20% of blacks and around 50% of both asians/latins voting GOP.

Given Nixon's comparative moderation+no carter administration, less of a polarization on gender lines as you'd have both parties accepting of roe v. wade.

 

[GeographyDude]

IOTL Nixon campaigned on a 'Black Capitalism' initiative that basically consisted of federal loans for businesses in African American communities. I don't think it was ever seriously funded, . . .

I don’t think entrepreneurism is any kind of magic potion, because 8 out of 10 new businesses fail within the first couple of years. Often at the very beginning as the fixed expenses eat you alive before you really get rolling with sales. And it’s not just sales, it’s getting paid. With services to other businesses, it’s usually thirty days, or more.

80% of new businesses fail.

Maybe if this is instead ramping up existing businesses, with a thorough loan application process, a person and agency and program can improve these odds.