Mmmm, I don't think so. Actually is unlikely to happen considering that this TL already eliminated one important factor; the anarchy of the first 50 years of the independent Mexico. Why this is important to consider in the Narco history? I will explain this broadly. The first narcos that start operating in Sinaloa were, at the begining, the armed wing of the Sinaloan hacendados who fought against the land reforms promoted by the revolutionary goverments, especially durign the government of Lázaro Cárdenas. Those governments were a direct consecuence of the Mexican Revolution that fought against the dictatorship of General Porfirio Diaz and the wealthy landowners who hoard up the land of the peasants all around Mexico, and this happen as a consecuence of La Reforma and especially the Lerdo Law that targeted not only property owned by the Catholic Church, but also properties held in common by indigenous communities and transfer them to private hands, this create especulation with the new burgoise of Mexico who became later the powerful landlords of el Porfiriato, one example of this is Luis Terrazas, governor of Chihuahua and old supporter of Benito Juarez durign the War of three Years and the Second French intervention.
La Reforma was a result of the Ayutla Revolution that begun because of the dictatorship of Antonio Lopez de Santa Anna and the bad state in wich Mexico was at the time because of the defeat in the Mexican-American War. If Mexico succedes in this first 50 years in his consolidation as an independent and strong nation there will not be first of all an constant state of chaos caused by the revolts of centralists or federalists factions, this creates security for the consolidation of bussiness, the reforms will be more gradual that what it was on OTL avoinding a violent civil war that saw the political raising of people like Porfirio Diaz and the creation of wealth that ends for eliminating, or at least minimizing poverty in the long term, that is the second reason why there was and still there's a lot of people who wants to join to the cartels and makes them stronger, because they want money to survive. Now, if this Mexico becomes an important power in the 20 century is more than plausible that there's more of a welfare state that discourages the generalized corruption of OTL Mexico that born thanks to the lack of opportunities, the low salarys of the law forces, politicians who get their possition because they were the friends of one important revolutionary leader, even if they were incompetent, and as I said before the poverty that prevailed in what is now know as the "Golden triangle" between Chihuahua, Sonora and Sinaloa and became with all this together the perfect spot for the Italian Mafia and the US government for the growth and traffic of Opium to the Union, that created later the conditions for the raise of criminals who later get power to found the first drug cartels in Mexico.
If this Mexico is stonger, another thing in its favor will be that they would be able of dealing with the US with the leaglization of drugs with the Reglamento Federal de Toxicomanías of 1940 by wich the mexican goverment monopolized the sale of drugs and declares the drug addiction as a health problem and not only a crime to punish. The reason why this program was cancelled in OTL was because the US protested about it and cancell the shipment of the chemicals necessary to the creation of this drugs and the allegation that if this law continued, a big wave of drugs coming from the South would flood the US , If Mexico is able to produce those chemicals and resist the preassure of the United States by 1940, the program could be succesful and one of the most important steps in the fight against drug traffic and not only becomes "the outpourings of a fucking educated nigger" as a customs officer of el Paso, John Bucley declared about the program formulated by Leopoldo Salazar Viniegra.