What if China doesn't get kicked out of Vietnam in the 1420s?

Up until the late 900s, China had been able to hold onto Vietnam, in some form or another, albeit with constant unrest. If the Ming were able to take it in the 1420s, I would imagine that they would be able to hold onto it for some degree of time, and it would eventually be annexed by Qing China - assuming the Manchu takeover still happens, and that all of China falls. Assuming sinicization's successful, it'd still probably try to break away at the first sign of trouble, much like Mongolia, Tibet, and Xinjiang. I would imagine that had a capitalist, authoritarian government inherited all of China, it would be facing some degree of insurgency in Vietnam.
 
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