1981 NFC Championship Game Dallas 30, San Francisco 28

[Dayton Kitchens]

Everyone remembers this game for the famous Joe Montana to Dwight Clark TD pass with 51 seconds left known forever as "The Catch".

What most forget is that Dallas still had 51 seconds left and only needed a field goal

On the ensuing possession, WR Drew Pearson caught a long pass from QB Danny White and only a touchdown saving horse collar tackle stopped him. Dallas was approaching field goal range on that play but QB Danny White fumbled the next play when hit by DT Lawrence Pillars of San Francisco.

What if Dallas QB Danny White had not fumbled and Dallas had gone to get a game winning field goal as time expired?

Changes

1) Dallas matched up better against Cincinnati in the Super Bowl than San Francisco did. Though SF would win 26-21, Dallas would probably have managed something along the lines of 28-17

2) Dallas QB Danny White would've lifted the cloud over his whole career about not "winning the big one".

3) In the long term not much would've changed. Dallas was already an aging team and probably would've gone into a decline much as they did in the original time line. This Super Bowl victory would've truly been the "last gasp" of the Landry era.

4) San Francisco would've still been a team on the rise. No doubt, Joe Montana would've QBed them to at least 3 (and possibly more) Super Bowl victories in subsequent years.

 

[AltSptHst]

Everyone remembers this game for the famous Joe Montana to Dwight Clark TD pass with 51 seconds left known forever as "The Catch".

What most forget is that Dallas still had 51 seconds left and only needed a field goal

On the ensuing possession, WR Drew Pearson caught a long pass from QB Danny White and only a touchdown saving horse collar tackle stopped him. Dallas was approaching field goal range on that play but QB Danny White fumbled the next play when hit by DT Lawrence Pillars of San Francisco.

What if Dallas QB Danny White had not fumbled and Dallas had gone to get a game winning field goal as time expired?

Changes

1) Dallas matched up better against Cincinnati in the Super Bowl than San Francisco did. Though SF would win 26-21, Dallas would probably have managed something along the lines of 28-17

2) Dallas QB Danny White would've lifted the cloud over his whole career about not "winning the big one".

3) In the long term not much would've changed. Dallas was already an aging team and probably would've gone into a decline much as they did in the original time line. This Super Bowl victory would've truly been the "last gasp" of the Landry era.

4) San Francisco would've still been a team on the rise. No doubt, Joe Montana would've QBed them to at least 3 (and possibly more) Super Bowl victories in subsequent years.

I agree with your first three points, but what if they still have a similar season in 1982, and Walsh resigns. He came close to resigning in OTL before being advised not to.

Or, what if Walsh stays, and since Joe didn't win the title, what if he actually packages Montana in April 1983 in a trade for the #1 pick and Elway?

 

[High Plains Drifter]

Changes

1) Dallas matched up better against Cincinnati in the Super Bowl than San Francisco did. Though SF would win 26-21, Dallas would probably have managed something along the lines of 28-17

Not seeing this. Care to give specific examples?


I went to http://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/1981/ and pulled the offensive/defensive unit rankings based on yardage allowed/gained for all three teams for that season.

On offense, the Bengals were 3rd in the league in passing yards. The Niners were 3rd in the league on pass defense, while the Cowboys were 21st. The Bengals passing advantage seems to increase hugely here.

On defense, the Bengals were 22nd in pass yardage allowed. The Niners were 3rd in passing offense, while the Cowboys were 21st. The Bengals weak pass defense just got a whole lot better.

Also on defense, the Bengals were 9th in stopping the run. The Cowboys were an incredibly strong 2nd in running yards, as oppopsed to the Niners being a mediocre 19th. The Cowboys have a great running game, but from the Bengals standpoint, at least that's going against the strongest part of their D.

On offense, the Bengals were 17th in rushing. The Niners were 12th on run defense, while the Cowboys were 16th. That's another net gain from the Bengals standpoint, albeit a modest one.

In match ups by replacing the Cowboys for the Niners, that adds to 2 big gains and 1 small gain for the Bengals as opposed to only one big loss that being their run D against the Cowboys run O.

With that, I also see a 28 - 17 score, but with the Bengals clearly on top. At a macro level it appears to me the matchups lean strongly toward Cincy.

 

[Dayton Kitchens]

Pass defense statistics of that era (and I believe today as well) are misleading in that they do not factor in the pass rush (sacks).

And I won't go into Dallas having a large number of players already with Super Bowl experience. Randy White, Harvey Martin, Ed Jones, Danny White, Tony Dorsett, Robert Newhouse, and a number of others.

 

[AHFan]

Everyone remembers this game for the famous Joe Montana to Dwight Clark TD pass with 51 seconds left known forever as "The Catch".

What most forget is that Dallas still had 51 seconds left and only needed a field goal
.

My hunch is that Dallas would have won the Superbowl at the end of the 1981 season. The biggest change is that Danny White would have been better received in Dallas as he would have proven to be a clutch performer.

Given that they were so close to winning in 1981, San Francisco may have been more focused during the strike season of 1982 and may have challenged Washington and Dallas for the NFC title. Washington would be unaffected by this ATL so we are probably looking at either a Washington vs. Dallas or a Washington vs. SF NFC title. Washington still beats Dallas, though they may not defeat San Francisco in this alternate timeline.

Dallas Cowboys had an aging team in the mid-80s so they still probably fade. San Francisco still emerges as an NFC power in the 1984 timeline. They still piss off the Bears in the '84 title game and we go on from there.

Danny White is the biggest beneficiary of a Cowboys field goal at the end of the 1981 NFC title game and he becomes the next "Mr. Comeback" in Dallas. It is possible that Dallas maintains momentum but it is unlikely that Dallas could have held back emerging Washington and San Francisco.

 

[Dayton Kitchens]

My hunch is that Dallas would have won the Superbowl at the end of the 1981 season. The biggest change is that Danny White would have been better received in Dallas as he would have proven to be a clutch performer.

Given that they were so close to winning in 1981, San Francisco may have been more focused during the strike season of 1982 and may have challenged Washington and Dallas for the NFC title. Washington would be unaffected by this ATL so we are probably looking at either a Washington vs. Dallas or a Washington vs. SF NFC title. Washington still beats Dallas, though they may not defeat San Francisco in this alternate timeline.

Dallas Cowboys had an aging team in the mid-80s so they still probably fade. San Francisco still emerges as an NFC power in the 1984 timeline. They still piss off the Bears in the '84 title game and we go on from there.

Danny White is the biggest beneficiary of a Cowboys field goal at the end of the 1981 NFC title game and he becomes the next "Mr. Comeback" in Dallas. It is possible that Dallas maintains momentum but it is unlikely that Dallas could have held back emerging Washington and San Francisco.

Pretty much the way I saw it. Dallas was in the process of having a series of atrocious drafts (including the notorious 1982 draft) that left their pool of emerging talent very low when lots of the older holdovers from the Staubach era started retiring in the mid 1980s.

 

[High Plains Drifter]

Pass defense statistics of that era (and I believe today as well) are misleading in that they do not factor in the pass rush (sacks).

And I won't go into Dallas having a large number of players already with Super Bowl experience. Randy White, Harvey Martin, Ed Jones, Danny White, Tony Dorsett, Robert Newhouse, and a number of others.

Ok, so you're not providing any real analysis to back up your statement that the Cowboys matched up better against the Bengals.

Pass defense stats don't factor sacks. Alright. In 81 in the regular season, the Cowboys were sacked 31 times and got 42 of their own. The Bengals were sacked 35 times while also sacking opponents 42 times. Small edge Cowboys.

The Bengals threw 30 TDs while being intercepted 12 times. The Cowboys threw 24 while getting picked 17 times. Edge Bengals.

The Bengals D allowed 24 TD passes while picking 17. The Cowboys allowed only 17 TD passes and also picked the opponent an amazing 37 times. Huge edge to the Cowboys.

However to counter that, the Cowboys fumbled the ball 45 times to only 25 by the Bengals. Huge edge Bengals.

So where is the match up advantage?

And yeah, all that Cowboy Super Bowl experience? It sure came in handy against the Niners, a team teeming with very little playoff experience.

You're just blowing smoke with your theory, admit it.

 

[Dayton Kitchens]

I'll still go with Dallas over Cincinnati.

After all, statistically speaking San Francisco should've blown away Dallas in the NFC title game (as they did during the regular season) and Cincinnat should've manhandled San Francisco in the Super Bowl (they outgained the 49ers substantially).

I would stake my 10 years as a football coach on that.

 

[Zheng He]

I'll still go with Dallas over Cincinnati.

After all, statistically speaking San Francisco should've blown away Dallas in the NFC title game (as they did during the regular season) and Cincinnat should've manhandled San Francisco in the Super Bowl (they outgained the 49ers substantially).

I would stake my 10 years as a football coach on that.

Keep in mind that part of the reason Cincinnati outgained the 49ers so much was that they racked up a bunch of yards in two late game TD drives where they 49ers let them complete a lot of short passes over the middle that got them down the field but also chewed up a lot of clock. That game was actually not as close as the score. The 49ers owned that game for over three quarters.

Either way, I agree that Dallas beats Cincinnati.