Map Thread XXII

So I realized that it's been 10-11 years since I last did OTL Religious Demography maps, so figured I'd do some updated ones.
The below is a map showing what religions are the majority (or what collectively make-up the majority) of each sovereign and autonomous polity.

I tried to use the most up to date numbers, however a good many places (mostly in the developing world) have either not done a census or any other form of statistical surveys in a decade or more, and private groups don't tend to poll these places more than once or twice a decade and even some of the developed places have not kept up, resultingly there are a lot of places where I can figure out the general numbers (IE what's the majority), but can't provide for exact numbers; additionally there are a handful of cases where there are sources providing substantially different numbers (ex. one says Christians are 57% while another says they are only 34%), in those cases I tried to go with the source that was both most up to date and most trustworthy.



View attachment 890331
Are there countries with significant amount of Syncretic Beliefs? Or will you be doing a breakdown for autonomous subnational entities as well?
 
Dominion of Tamerlane:
Timurid Invasion of China


Timurid-Invasion-of-China-High.jpg

The World in Waiting (1394-1400)

What you say is true, and I was to pay what was due. However, do not burden yourselves with such tribute, for I shall deliver it for you.

- Timur, before he arrested the Ming ambassadors and executed their guards. (1393)

The fifteenth century has dawned upon the world, and Timur stood triumphant against the rising sun.

The Mamluks, once housing Sultan Ahmad of the Jalayirids and executing the emir's envoys in defiance, succumbed to his demands after the capture of Sultan Barquq during the Battle of Samarra (1394). Tokhtamysh of the Golden Horde was also captured during the Battle of Terek River (1395), bestowing his throne to a more subservient lot. Bayezid I of the Ottoman Empire, who once seethed his lettered words with vile and vim, finally humbled himself upon the emir, recognizing his rule across the eastern highlands, surrendered his enemies to his court, and, in return, courted with pleasantries of a marriage alliance between their grandsons and granddaughters and martial support of five thousand men for the sultan's campaign against the withering Byzantines.

With the threats from his west swiftly tamed, Timur and his army marched eastward to Samarkand, forwarding Saifuddin Allahdad - one of his personal followers, to Transoxania to complete four tasks: To chart the depths of the eastern mountains and beyond, to cultivate farms and pastures along the eastern marches, to build forts and mustering grounds eastward of the Syr Darya river, and to support Muhammad Sultan Mirza - heir apparent and his favored grandson, in rallying the tribes in Chaghatayid lands [1]. This while Timur was invading the already weakened Tughlaq of the Dehli Sultanate from 1398-1399, returning to the capital once more to frolic with the plunders from the once unconquered empire.

Thus, in 1400, when all the snow covering the Rome of the East melted, when the people of Samarkand - from the needy to the noble, whispered of his next grand design, Timur - the Commander of the Chaghatays and the Unconquered Lord of the Seven Climes, emerged from the ornate gates of Ak Sarai (White Palace) with chained Chinese envoys on his left and his grandson to his right. Facing an army of 200,000 stretching to the horizon, he stood tall for his men to witness as he boasted his most magnificent campaign yet:

"Let us offer tribute to the pig-faced emperor, this master of a realm on which the serpents bestowed a mortal man divinity and power. For what right do we deny his tribute? Thus, it is within our oath to deliver our obligations to him."

With a wave of his hand, the envoys were released from their chains and gifted them his fastest steeds, for Timur ordered them to gallop as fast as they could, for he shall trail them to claim his greatest prize: China.

Historical Footnotes and References

[1] Chaghatayid lands refer to Central Asia, especially Tranxosania and Eastern Turkestan.

Timur - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timur

Tokhtamysh - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tokhtamysh

Muhammad Sultan Mirza - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muhammad_Sultan_Mirza

At the Gates of Khanbaliq (1400-1403)


"I gazed upon the invaders when they caught us crossing the roads, and realized how different they look compared to barbarians of the north. They all come in shades; few are the typical barbarians from the mountains, but some are tanned with large noses and fair-skinned with blue eyes."

- Anonymous, supposed recollections from the Journal of Yan (1422)

While the commanders and eunuch spies were clamoring to Nanjing to warn the already distraught Jiawen Emperor [1], some reported that Timur and his army passed through the Hexi Corridor unscathed within a mere month (April 19th - May 24th, 1400); Mongol auxiliaries betrayed the garrisons of the Jiayu Pass, and the regional commanderies were too feeble to oppose the emir's army. To the imperial court's relief, Timur and the Chaghatay army marched along the northern side of the Yellow River instead of heading toward Sichuan. With the possibility that he and his already rebellious uncle, Zhu Di - the Prince of Yan, will clash against each other, the emperor commands a withdrawal from Zhu Di's dominion (encompasses modern-day Beijing and Hebei) while leaving a small contingent to observe the theatre, intending to have them wither themselves until his army can deliver the killing blow — despite the dismay of many generals within the imperial court.

However, as Timur struck victory with each battle against the commanderies and princely fiefdoms, he gained support from the Turco-Mongol tribes residing under Ming suzerainty. With a sense of proto-nationalist euphoria, many chieftains rallied towards the emir as they viewed him as the restorer of Mongol authority across China. It was enough to rally 25,000 horsemen on his side, delegating half of them to Muhammad Sultan as another envoy to the declining Yuan Dynasty, with the recently-pardoned Tokhtamysh as the acting commander of his right wing.

Since Timur's incursion, Ming spies reported the emir spent two years occupying the Gansu region. From plundering to extortion, his army sustained itself by living off the land and through the flowing logistics provided by Moghulistan caravans and satisfied by the generous share of loot they received galloping across the riverside. They also informed the emperor of Zhu Di's probing attacks against the Army; they revealed themselves far more disciplined than his northern foes, even slaying his Mongolian vassal - Qoryocin, and his regiments [2].

However, it wasn't until the Autumn of 1403 that Yan scouts witnessed a swirling of dust heading towards Beijing, later revealed to be Timur marching with his 60,000 men detachment. In return, he rallied over 90,000, which included 40,000 from his princely brothers and 12,000 Mongolian auxiliaries from the northern regions. Timur and the Prince of Yan met for the first time at Lugou River, clashing on a bridge once crossed by Marco Polo. Unfortunately for Zhu Di, his nomadic auxiliaries — barring a few, were revealed to be conspiring with Muhammad Mirza for years since his arrival. Fear of being enveloped, the prince rallied the rest of his reserve in flight while his main force crushed from both sides, leaving him to collect his regiments and family in Beijing and seek refuge from the east while his son, Zhu Gaozhi, volunteered to remain behind.

When Timur and his forces arrived at the city and demanded their peaceful surrender, Gaozhi refused and declared the people would fight to the last man. In return, instead to the defenders themselves, he decreed this to his men in a Chaghatayid tongue unfamiliar to the Chinese:

"When we enter this city, none shall leave without bearing four heads on their belts. May God have mercy to those suffering under this fool's arrogance, for I do not."

Historical Footnotes and References

[1] Jianwen Emperor historically faced numerous problems when disposing of the princely vassals (his uncles' fiefdom), especially against Zhu Di - the future Yongle Emperor.

[2] Qoryocin and his people surrendered to the future Yongle Emperor in 1381, becoming his right-hand man and eventually Marquis of Tongan after Zhu Di's ascension to the Dragon Throne.

Jianwen Emperor - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jianwen_Emperor

Zhu Di, Prince of Yan - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yongle_Emperor

Princely States - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Princes_of_the_Ming_dynasty

When The Yellow River Turned Red (1403-1406)


"The Great Timur gallops freely across the land of the infidels, cutting through them like a scythe mowing through grass. He knows and fears nothing but the Almighty himself for what the world means to him when he shall visit the afterlife."

- Sharaf al-Din Ali Yazdi, detailing his triumph against the Chinese in the Zafarnama - Book of Victories (1415)

From dusk to dawn, lasting over five days, over 150,000-320,000 men, women, and children are slaughtered. Beijing's riches, from the largest jade to the tiniest golden scrap, were striped to reward the emir's men and enrich his beloved capital, Samarkand. Despite the onslaught, only the tradesmen, from artisans to engineers, were spared to support the war effort or migrate to Tranxosanian proper.

When Bunyashiri - Timur's protege and recently-crowned Khagan of the Yuan Dynasty [1], and his 50,000 men bore witness after emerging from the Yanshan Mountains, he recollected:

"The capital of my forebears is no longer of my own, being stolen by the rebellious. As retribution, the Commander of the Chaghatay smites it into a smoldering black spot as an example to the rest."

Since 1404, in a calculated strategy to create massive waves of refugees heading toward the south, Timur committed his greatest atrocities across the North China Plain. From erecting spikes of the impaled to be displayed across towns to the disemboweling of selected village peasants and elders, he encouraged his commanders to employ whatever means necessary for them to achieve his grand design. Many cities, especially Taiyuan and Liaocheng, followed the example of their Beijing counterparts as their people were slaughtered in the thousands; the emir ordered the construction of towers to display their heads for the survivors and refugees to witness.

In consequence, hundreds of thousands (350,000-1,250,000) were butchered, and millions flocked towards Southern China to seek sanctuary from the rather indecisive Jiawen Emperor; many accounts cited hauling ships sinking into the depths of the Yellow River due to the brunt of overcrowding. The sudden crisis has strained the already indecisive imperial government as Nanjing faces rapid overpopulation, worsened by food shortages due to the loss of the northern farmlands.

Realizing that the Army was a greater threat to his imperial authority than the princely fiefdoms, he set course for diplomatic couriers to grant amnesty to his uncles and levied 350,000 men to repel the invaders, with Li Jinglong [2] - son of an influential duke, as appointed commander-in-chief.

In 1405, After witnessing the Ming army crossing through the Yellow River during autumn, Timur splintered his 175,000-manned forces into four mobile formations to avoid capture; Muhammad Sultan, Totkhamysh, and Bunyashiri led their respective detachments. Instead of fighting against impossible odds, he attempted to deprive them until they were weak enough to be crushed, using tactics such as destroying their wagon supply routes, committing night raids against stationed camps, skirmishing marching formations, and razing the farmlands and grain depot. He was able to deprive Li Jinglong's forces; his army dwindled from 350,000 to 225,000.

While his army is regrouping near Jinan, Muhammad Sultan — by Timur's orders, deceives Li Jinglong into believing that he is the emir; he dresses in colorful garbs and carries large ornate yurts to display a pretense of an invading royalty. Marching from Yuncheng, the commander-in-chief's relentless pursuit against him deprived the levies of decent rest, which caused exhaustion and even desertion. Li Jinglong seemed to corner the heir apparent in a mountain valley southeast of Jinan but was too late to realize the emir's ploy as eighty thousand soldiers - veterans of numerous campaigns since Timur's rise, had emerged from the forested mountain slopes. Believing he could still win through sheer numbers, Li Jinglong ordered a massive charge to end the nomadic threat. However, he later discovered that their infamous cavalry (numbering over 55,000) emerged against his rear, with the actual Timur leading its vanguard. Thus, the battle ended in a Timurid triumph when he led the charge against an exhausted army's exposed formation.

With the largest contingent of the Ming Army destroyed within a single battle, the army was free to cross the Yellow River unchallenged. Across the entire year of 1406, Timur exploited such opportunity extensively: They galloped to pillage cities and villages stretching from Xuzhou and Yancheng, eventually diverting towards the Xian to crush the resisting Prince of Jin and finally occupying China's breadbasket region, Sichuan. From the arid plains of Jiayuguan to the shores of Yancheng, all of Northern China is under the reign of the Timurid Empire, closely resembling the Mongol Empire of the old.

However, despite the numerous triumphs, new problems arise: The Yangtze River seems impenetrable due to the patrolling Ming riverboats, and the further they dive into the southern mountains, the further they are from the logistics of Moghulistan caravans, unable to live off the land when the people tilling the fields are gone. His army became more anxious and sickly for home; even Muhammad Sultan himself questioned his grandfather's grand design.

As for Timur himself, he collapsed during his march towards Xian and, for the remainder of the invasion, was carried by an ornate carriage [3]. For the first time in his life, the emir realizes that death is at his doorstep.

Historical Footnotes and References

[1] Bunyashiri - or Öljei Temür was granted asylum under Timur's court and converted to Islam. Timur planned to restore Yuan rule across Mongolia and China through him, but some scholars disagreed due to his legitimacy revolving around the Chaghatayid throne.

[2] Li Jinglong was appointed commander-in-chief due to the frequent failures of Marquis Geng Bingwen - his predecessor. Since his appointment, he attempted to recruit 500,000-600,000 levies and was tricked into marching his armies during severe winter, losing countless soldiers in the process.

[3] According to Spanish envoy, Ruy González de Clavijo, Timur was occasionally carried by a litter, especially as he aged.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Öljei_Temür_Khan

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Li_Jinglong

When the Titans Clashed (1406-1408)


"As son of heaven, I command my uncle - the Prince of Yan, to raise his sword and lead my men. As you had done under my grandfather, I shall bestow you the mission to repel the Tartar threat and reclaim the lands of our ancestors."

- Jianwen Emperor, bestowing a letter of amnesty to Zhu Di during his refuge in Joseon Korea.

By the dawn of 1406, China is in turmoil.

The Ming dynasty faced the greatest foreign invasion since Chinggiz Khan's incursion of the Jurchen Dynasty. The loss of both Sichuan and the North China Valley deprived the people residing south, especially Nanjing; food shortages shifted to deadly famines, and the rest of the stockpile was reserved for the war effort. Signs of plague began to emerge as some refugees inadvertently carried bubonic disease, inflicting the deaths of thousands and even forcing the Jianwen Emperor to leave the premises, isolating the capital in the process.

However, the Prince of Yan sailed to Nanjing with an army — 20,000 men comprised of veterans of the Battle of Lugou Bridge and Jurchen auxiliaries from both sides of the Amur River, on his back. Becoming the emperor's new commander-in-chief and war minister, he raised 250,000 levies and organized them as loose independent divisions rather than a single marching army. Instead of seeking decisive battles, he uses the Yangtze River as staging grounds for skirmishes and raids, attempting to exhaust Chaghatay formations through sporadic marches.

Ma He - Zhu Di's eunuch general and appointed grand admiral [1], recounted his experience of such strategies when sailing towards the charred fiefdom of the Prince of Yan:

"We sailed towards Beijing with a hundred ships; we crewed a few but left the others sparse, but enough to give the pretense of a moving army. We stuck close to the shores and lit our lanterns when the skies went dark, everything to attract Tartar scouts while dissuading any suspicion. Every time we pretend to land, they gallop to the beaches to prepare for battle but find wanting as we depart instead. We commit such maneuvers across the Yellow Sea to deprive and confuse them, pulling a contingent of their forces north to make theatre amicable for the prince."

It was successful enough for Zhu Di to launch an expedition to liberate Yancheng and repel the Yuan auxiliaries occupying the northern half of Wuhan, enough for Henan-Jiangbei to become a contested region once again. However, pitch battles against the greater army proved more difficult than the prince anticipated: His numerous but ill-trained levies were no match against Timur's well-experienced and disciplined professional soldiers, and the actual battles he'd won were pyrrhic; he lost 45,000 soldiers during the Battle of Wuhu against Muhammad Sultan.

Despite enduring casualties, the prince received a relief of 75,000 levies, and his victories provoked Timur's ire; his scouts reported a massive gathering of his forces westward of Xuzhou, presumably to reconsolidate the region and repel his liberation force as he did with Li Jinglong's. Recognizing such deception similar to Jinan and receiving reports of swirling dust heading towards Wuhan, Zhu Di intercepted Muhammad Sultan's formation during the Battle of Chongsan Mountain (1407). From there, he allowed the heir apparent to fall back with his remaining cohort while the prince's forces trailed him to their mustering grounds.

A few weeks later, Zhu Di took advantage of the emerging winter to conceal his army's movement from scouts, reaching the outskirts of Xuzhou despite the lost decent men. But much to his surprise, his scouts report that Timur's men and his commanders are marching in unison towards the Xinbian River, purportedly abandoning his initial ploy to avenge his grandson's defeat.

From there, with an army depleted to 200,000 forces - including his foreign auxiliaries, he meets the outnumbered Army of 140,000 men. While taking the offensive, Zhu Di took notice of Timur reorganizing his battle formation; He diverted half of his eastern wing (led by Muhammad Sultan Mirza) to reinforce his western counterpart (Tokhtamysh), organized Bunyashiri's men into skirmishing parties, and slightly tilted his entire line backward from his eastern flank. Believing Timur wanted to rout the western wing to envelope and destroy his army, the prince evened both wings and took command of the rear to prevent immediate collapse. Despite the marginal casualties inflicted by the harassing horse archers, he made contact with his foe in massive numbers. His army grinds against the Chaghatay footman, whose morale was wavering due to the exhaustive years of marching and fighting. To his delight, his couriers relayed that Muhammad Sultan's wing was slowly pushed back by his Jurchen cavalry, albeit not routed as previously assumed. However, Muhammad Sultan eventually revealed his ploy: While the Jurchen pushed themselves behind the rear, a contingent of Iranian spearmen - who had hidden themselves in the snow, unraveled their shrouds and charged at the cavalry's flank. Such a move routed the Jurchens after suffering massive casualties and left Zhu Di's eastern wing vulnerable. He was also relayed that Muhammad Sultan, immediately accompanied by Timur's elite guards, attacked his rear; each of his levy cohorts slowly fell to disorder due to the pressure deployed by both commanders. Realizing the slow collapse and with no reserves to counter the enemy, Zhu Di and his remaining cavalry (both Chinese and Jurchen) retreated as the Chaghatay army enveloped the thousands of levies left behind, unable to reform themselves due to the pursuing Bunyashiri and his Yuan forces.

It was another disaster inflicted by Timur, but not without cost. While defeated, Zhu Di's forces inflicted massive casualties; His scouts, returning to the battlefield to witness remains, reported that over 65,000 of the emir's men had fallen. It was a defeat that crushed any means of resistance the Jianwen Emperor could deploy, and it was also a defeat that saved China from another impending onslaught.

Historical Footnotes and References

[1] Ma He was a Hui eunuch from Yunnan brought by Zhu Di's mentor, General Fu Youde. After years of serving under him, he changed the commander's name to Zheng He - admiral of the Treasure Fleet, since his ascension as the Yongle Emperor.

Ma He - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zheng_He

To Mourn for the Young and Old (1408-Beyond)


"Timur - the Unconquered Lord of the Seven Climes, is now rendered lame and blind for his sins against the believers. Guided by his blessed son - Shah Rukh, he lords over his father's dominion with wisdom and guile, leading faithful from the gardens of Samarkand."

- Ibn Arabshah [1], summarizes the contrast between Timur and Shah Rukh in his contemporary biography, The Wonders of Destiny of the Ravages of Timur.

Timur faced a pyrrhic victory during the Battle of Xinbian River; despite destroying the entire Ming army in a single battle once again, his army was reduced to 75,000 men. Many of his commanders and soldiers expressed bitter mutiny, pleading to return home with the spoils they had. However, it was Muhammad Sultan Mirza who convinced him as he — revealed by his guards, to have died from his wounds. With an army too meager to siege Nanjing and mourning over his grandson's death [2], he returned to the restored Beijing — renamed again as Khanbaliq, and departed from Bunyashiri as Timur and his remaining army marched back to Samarkand.

His return to his capital was polarizing: His plunder of China's insurmountable riches accelerated the development of his domain (especially Tranxosania, Khawresm, and Khorasan), and the capture of many skilled Chinese tradesmen, especially gunsmiths, allowed the proliferation of cannons and arquebuses in his army and turned Tranxosania into an economic powerhouse [3]; however, the supposed triumphant parade was disappointingly brief and silent, and it shall be Timur's final conquest as he peacefully lords his dominion for the next five years.

Shah Rukh - the impromptu regent of the Timurid Empire [4], informed of what transpired around his empire since his departure: Bayezid, with the support of Timurid aid, conquered Constantinople and declared himself Kayser-i Rum (Caesar of Rome); Mecca and Medina are now under a new Caliphate with a territory stretching from the mountains of Yemen to the shores of Gulf of Aqaba; and the Golden Horde, with their Novgorod allies, razed Muscovy into the ground.

The last five years of Timur's reign were his attempt to redeem himself to the Islamic faith, especially when he contemplated whether his slaughter of infidels was enough to absolve his past sins. Abandoning the Yasa (Mongol Law), he introduced many Persian customs into his Turco-Mongol court, granted himself the title Padishah (Master King), and replaced the Chaghatay throne by force with his own imperial line; the nomadic tribes who defied his legitimacy were either slaughtered, settled or coerced to move east.

In 1413, knowing he was nearing his end, Timur gathered all his sons and grandsons into Samarkand. From here, he declared his will in front of all his family and followers to witness and honor: For Pir Muhammad - Muhammad Sultan's half-brother, he shall receive the east (Eastern Afghanistan and India); Miran Shah will receive the west (Iraq, Ar-Raqqah, Eastern Anatolia, Caucasus, and Tabarestan); and Shah Rukh, being proven far capable than expected, receives the lion's share and the nominal title of Padishah. Declaring the Shahada one last time, Timur - the Unconquered Lord of the Seven Climes, gasped his last breath and passed away during the silent winter.

During the first few years of Shah Rukh's reign, Ghiyathuddin Naqqash [5] - the Padishah's envoy to China, returned to the Ak Saray to relay his findings:

"The country (China) is divided into two realms: The northern lands under the faithful (Bunyashiri's restored Yuan Dynasty), and the southern depths divided by warring princes. Once ravaged by civil strife, the Great Khan brought good to his realm: He developed roads, farms, and cities, continued the trade flow of silk and fine china, and erected many mosques in his capital. In contrast, I was greeted by earthen walls when reaching south; its commander shared tales of deadly plagues, disorderly princes, and even raging dragons. When I asked what happened to the emperor, he merely briefed me of his murder."

Despite his prosperous reign and triumph against Miran Shah and his sons, Shah Rukh passed away in 1445. Like Timur himself, he passed his titles to his sons, with Ulugh Beg inheriting the Persianate (Iran and Western Afghanistan) and the title of Padishah. However, the polities of the greater Timurid Empire no longer recognized his authority, with Pir Muhammad's sons conquering India and Khalil Sultan's dominion warring against the resurgent Golden Horde.

Miran Shah, while defeated, was given a generous pardon to rule east of the Syr Darya River (Tashkent and Otrar). From here, he lord his dominion peacefully and bestowed the title to his son, his son to his grandson, and so on. However, it wasn't until 1483 when Qutlugh Nigar Khanum - a princess from Eastern Moghulistan and Umar Shaikh's consort, gave birth to a boy.

A boy who will follow in the footsteps of his ancestors. A boy who will cross the mountains and tame the warring states. A boy - predestined by the aligning spheres, to wield the sword and claim the middle kingdom for God and his house.

A boy named Babur.

Historical Footnotes and References

[1] Ibn Arabshah was a contemporary chronicler of Timur's life, who was carried off with his mother and brothers to Samarkand as a prisoner. In contrast to Sharaf al-Din Ali Yazdi, the Arabshah's accounts were scathing due to his personal experience during the Siege of Damascus (1400)

[2] Timur was distraught by the news of Muhammad Sultan Mirza's death, to the point he ordered the entire population of Samarkand into a state of mourning.

[3] Timur was known for sparing skilled tradesmen from his numerous onslaughts, especially engineers and artisans. To deter them from returning to their homeland, Timur imposed ferry restrictions on the Amu Darya River to prevent unauthorized travel.

[4] In contrast to Timur, his grandson, Shah Rukh, mended his ties with the Ming Dynasty. Such normalization allowed unprecedented flow of trade across the Silk Road.

[5] Shah Rukh sent Ghiyathuddin Naqqash as a Timurid ambassador to the Yongle Emperor, bringing elaborate descriptions of Beijing and even gifts.

Shah Rukh - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shah_Rukh#Administration

Miran Shah - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miran_Shah

Babur - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Babur
 
Dominion of Tamerlane: Author's Note

Out of all the maps that I've designed and written, this current piece might be the most elaborate one yet. I can't remember any work I've drawn that didn't require me to read/skim 5-6 books, especially when writing a scenario concerning Timur and his empire. Like, I can just pull something out of my ass and call it a day, but ever since my piece on 18th Century India, I realized doing research allows you to be more creative with counterfactuals. It's also a fun read; authors from Justin Marozzi to Peter Jackson helped me alot.

If you guys are wondering, this premise is based on Timur's planned Invasion of China; he actually set up logistical lines to march across the Tien Shan mountains, but he kinda died during the winter. There are a lot of reasons why he wants to invade the country, but the funniest reason is that the first emperor of the Ming Dynasty - the Hongwu Emperor, called him a vassal*. Being the calm and collected man he was, he arrested his envoys and executed their guards; the envoys weren't released from captivity until he died.

But in this map, instead of 1405, he invaded China in 1400 — a year when the Ming Dynasty was under a civil war. He intended to invade the country earlier, but his ego kinda prevented him, especially when it comes to Bayezid the Thunderbolt.

Anyway, if you're wondering about the books I've read, here are the major ones:

  • From Genghis Khan to Tamerlane: The Reawakening of Mongol Asia - Peter Jackson
  • The Rise and Rule of Tamerlane - Beatrice Forbes Manz
  • Tamerlane: Sword of Islam, Conqueror of the World - Justin Marozzi
  • The Mongol Warlords: Genghis Khan, Kublai Khan, Hulegu, Tamerlane, David Nicolle
  • Perpetual Happiness: The Ming Emperor Yongle - Shih-Shan Henry Tsai
  • History of Imperial China: The Troubled Empire, China in the Yuan and Ming Dynasties - Timothy Brook
The other ones are either research papers or only require a bit of skimming, honestly. Listing all of them feels like filler, so I didn't bother.

Anyway, I hope you people love this piece. I put tons of effort to it, so I'm grateful for a comment or few.

Goodbye, folks!
 
How religious is Iran really?

I was actually recording the numbers for further maps so I can answer that; the most recent external NGO put the Muslim population at 96% (86% Shi'a specifically), with the remainder made-up of other religions.

In terms of actual religiosity, most studies have placed the Irreligious population at less than 3%; there were some new ones based on online polling that put it around 10%, however I don't really put any trust in them.

Iran is a case where, while it's a theocracy, this doesn't seem to have caused a large amount of people to become irreligious (even in secret), rather the vast majority of Iranians do seem to actually be adherents to Islam, but with many who oppose the state and want a more liberal society and religion.
Yeah, reliable data isn't available but a Shi'a majority is guaranteed.

Some elements of the Iranian diaspora may claim that the regime has caused the majority of Iranians have abandoned Islam due to the regime, but I sincerely doubt those assertions. It's usually Christian Pahlavi royalists who make that sorta claim, and they form their own very specific bubble and special interest group...
 
Yeah, reliable data isn't available but a Shi'a majority is guaranteed.

Some elements of the Iranian diaspora may claim that the regime has caused the majority of Iranians have abandoned Islam due to the regime, but I sincerely doubt those assertions. It's usually Christian Pahlavi royalists who make that sorta claim, and they form their own very specific bubble and special interest group...
If (North) Iran was colonized by Russia would there be a significant Christian minority (~10%) like Vietnam partly due to settlers?
 
Are there countries with significant amount of Syncretic Beliefs? Or will you be doing a breakdown for autonomous subnational entities as well?

The last time I did these maps there were actually several places where Syncretic Beliefs were the majority or were one of the two largest groups, however due to the lack of data for the last ten years in many places I was forced to use general religions.

There are still many countries where syncreticism is a thing though even though it's not shown on the map currently.
 
Yeah, reliable data isn't available but a Shi'a majority is guaranteed.

Some elements of the Iranian diaspora may claim that the regime has caused the majority of Iranians have abandoned Islam due to the regime, but I sincerely doubt those assertions. It's usually Christian Pahlavi royalists who make that sorta claim, and they form their own very specific bubble and special interest group...

Yeah, I don't trust what the diaspora says, especially since they don't really have many actual ties to Iran anymore.

If I were to guess I'd say that the numbers of Shi'a as a proportion of Muslims is correct (roughly 85%), but that Baháʼí and the Yarsani (a Syncretic faith) are probably very undercounted to the tune of likely 500,000-1 million and 1 million for the Yarsani; likewise I'd guess that the Irreligious population is probably around 10%.
 
My almost-done attempt at a "realistic" Timeline-191, following it through a "Great War," but that's where things diverge. There is simply no way the Confederacy can survive a Great War, having barely 1/4 the recruitable population of its rival, and much less in the way of industrial might. Thus the war in North America becomes a walkover, with Canada being directly annexed, and the Confederacy being reduced to direct annexations, military districts, and Black Autonomous Regions. Things in Europe are a bit more interesting, but the Central Powers end up winning, and France and Russia are battered to the point where they are hoovered up into the British sphere of influence.

Kaiserreich.png


And the inverse, a TL-191 where the "Entente" wins. Here you have to take some liberties, as I mentioned, given the material imbalances it is impossible for the Confederacy to actually defeat the Union. So instead, I kept Turtledove's 1880s war and had it end a bit worse for the Union, and then afterwards, the Union simply becomes disinterested in Great Power conflict and never fights the Confederacy again. Also, balkanizing Germany was fun,

Final TL 191.png
 
Very simple Worlda map, not meant to be really that realistic.
Main ideas being;
Prussian led 1848 Germany & Napoleon III's Italy plan working out
Confederates having a very bare minimum victory only to fall into racial based civil war (Including a black nation, Cajun nation and Texas)
Big Peru-Bolivia because why not?
No real colonisation of Africa, instead native policies would ally with the Europeans (Simply not shown duo to to no idea how the borders should look)
Bigger Russia screw resulting in an early Russian Republic
Bigger wank for Asian powers.
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I always think the trouble with these, especially in the western world, is that a lot of people mix religion with culture. Culturally Christian but not actually a practicing Christian for example (which opens the can of worms: what is a Christian? Someone who practices Christianity or someone who says they're a Christian but doesn't actually believe any of it or follow any of its doctrines?).
I heard a Vietnamese person say that a large portion of Vietnamese people who consider themselves atheists still believe in supernatural entities/spirits and local folk superstitions, so yeah, in many countries, especially in Asia, being an "atheist" is not what the Western world associates with atheism or irreligion.
I was actually recording the numbers for further maps so I can answer that; the most recent external NGO put the Muslim population at 96% (86% Shi'a specifically), with the remainder made-up of other religions.

In terms of actual religiosity, most studies have placed the Irreligious population at less than 3%; there were some new ones based on online polling that put it around 10%, however I don't really put any trust in them.

Iran is a case where, while it's a theocracy, this doesn't seem to have caused a large amount of people to become irreligious (even in secret), rather the vast majority of Iranians do seem to actually be adherents to Islam, but with many who oppose the state and want a more liberal society and religion.
Exactly, I have seen people on Reddit with no sources claim that Iran is actually 30% irreligious, and Turkey is as high as 40% irreligious (source: trust me bro), give me a break, these people think that English-speaking urban diaspora Iranians and Turks on the internet are the main demographic in these countries.
 
Anyway, I hope you people love this piece. I put tons of effort to it, so I'm grateful for a comment or few.
Amazing map and scenario bro! I don't think I've seen such a well-written Timur invades China scenario as this.

I'd love to see a continuation with this with an (alt)Mughal Empire led by Babur and his descendants conquering China. With Constantinople conquered earlier and Muscovy's rise nipped in the bud, developments there will be interesting. Especially if these regions could be brought into a Timurid sphere of influence. If a Timurid prince can also conquer India like the OTL Mughals, I imagine Timur himself smiling from the afterlife knowing that his heirs would occupy both the Peacock Throne and the Dragon Throne.
 
I heard a Vietnamese person say that a large portion of Vietnamese people who consider themselves atheists still believe in supernatural entities/spirits and local folk superstitions, so yeah, in many countries, especially in Asia, being an "atheist" is not what the Western world associates with atheism or irreligion.

Technically speaking that's not contradictory, atheism is the lack of beliefs in a deity or deities, not the disbelief in the supernatural.

Incidentally, that and a variety of other things is why on the maps I use the category of Irreligious and not Atheist.
 
jEJ0K2n.png


Continuing my CP victory series
Nathaniel Blackwood (born 1930) is a British politician who rose to prominence in the mid-20th century as a charismatic leader and founder of the Vanguard Party. His political career was marked by a meteoric rise within the Conservative Party, followed by the formation of the Vanguard Party and subsequent electoral success.

Early Career and Rise to Prominence (1955–1960):

Nathaniel Blackwood entered politics in 1955 when he was elected to the British Parliament as a member of the Conservative Party at the age of 25. His youthfulness and dynamic personality quickly made him a standout figure within the party, earning him widespread recognition as the voice of a new generation of conservative leaders. Blackwood's impassioned speeches and rallying calls for national renewal resonated with a British electorate disillusioned by the perceived decline of their country on the world stage.

In the ensuing years, Blackwood embarked on a nationwide tour, holding rallies and public events to promote his vision of a revitalized United Kingdom. His message, which emphasized the need for Britain to reclaim its former glory and assert its dominance on the global stage, struck a chord with many voters who yearned for change in the face of economic stagnation and geopolitical uncertainty.

Formation of the Sherwood Forest (1960–1964):

The momentum of Blackwood's political career continued to build, culminating in significant gains for the Conservative Party in the 1960 general election. As the party's star rose, so too did Blackwood's influence within its ranks. However, tensions began to emerge between Blackwood and the more centrist elements of the Conservative Party, who viewed his nationalist rhetoric and populist appeal with suspicion.

A distinct faction emerged within its ranks, known colloquially as the "'The Woodies" and "The Merrymen of Westminster" with Blackwood portrayed as a new Robin Hood., drawing inspiration from the ancient legends of Sherwood Forest. As the Woodies as they also were called formed a voting block that could not be defeated by "Sheriff" Charles Campbell. Comprised of ultra-conservative and nationalist members, this faction coalesced around Blackwood's leadership and vision for a revitalized United Kingdom.

As Blackwood's influence within the Conservative Party grew, so too did the power and prominence of the Woodie faction. Members of this faction were staunch advocates for Blackwood's nationalist agenda, advocating for policies aimed at restoring Britain's status as a global power and championing the interests of the British people above all else.

The Woodies wielded considerable influence within the Conservative Party, forming a cohesive voting bloc that supported Blackwood's leadership and agenda. Their rise to prominence signaled a shift within the party, as traditional conservative values gave way to a more assertive and nationalist ideology under Blackwood's guidance.

The Split and Formation of the Vanguard Party (1964):

Despite initial encouragement from within the Conservative Party, tensions between the Woodie faction and the more centrist elements of the party began to escalate. Blackwood's uncompromising stance on key issues and his growing influence within the party hierarchy fueled divisions that ultimately led to a fracture within the Conservative Party. As the Conservatives made moves to isolate the Merrymen by getting them off the upcoming party ticket.

In 1964, Nathaniel Blackwood made the pivotal decision to break away from the Conservative Party and form his own political movement, the Vanguard Party. This move, which came as a shock to the British political establishment, was driven by Blackwood's belief that the Conservative Party had lost its way and no longer represented the interests of the British people.

The formation of the Vanguard Party marked a significant turning point in British politics, as Blackwood sought to establish a new political force dedicated to advancing his nationalist agenda. Many members of the Woodie faction quickly rallied to Blackwood's banner, joining the Vanguard Party and leaving the Conservative Party fractured and weakened in its wake.

With the establishment of the Vanguard Party, Blackwood emerged as the undisputed leader of a burgeoning nationalist movement, poised to reshape the political landscape of the United Kingdom and chart a new course for the country's future.

Election of 1964
In the 1964 election, the Vanguard Party, under the leadership of Nathaniel Blackwood, made significant gains, capitalizing on growing nationalist sentiment and dissatisfaction with the traditional conservative and liberal factions. However, neither the Vanguard Party nor the Conservative Party secured an outright majority in parliament.

Following the election, negotiations ensued between the Conservative Party and the Liberal Party to form a coalition government. Despite ideological differences, the two parties forged an alliance in the interest of stability and governance. This coalition, often referred to as the Conservative-Liberal Coalition, aimed to bridge the gap between center-right and center-left ideologies and govern through consensus.

However, tensions simmered within the coalition over key policy issues, including foreign policy and defense. Beginning from the very start as the Liberal party agreed to join the coalilition only on the condition that Britain withdrawal from India, which was accepted. Blackwood used this to further galvanize the public and show that the C-L coalition was further weakening the country.

Issues came to a head in 1966 when deciding a response to Japanese aggression, with the Liberal Party advocating for a more cautious approach and the Conservative Party, under pressure from the Vanguard Party, pushing for a more assertive stance.
Japanese Aggression and Electoral Landslide (1966)

In a dramatic turn of events, the fragile coalition government formed by the Conservative and Liberal parties faced a critical test in October 1966. As tensions simmered within the coalition over key policy disagreements, including foreign intervention in response to Japanese aggression, mounting dissent culminated in a vote of no confidence after the Liberal party broke from the coalition and blocked a motion to send additional forces to Malay and Singapore. . The Conservative Prime Minister, unable to command a majority in parliament, sought a dissolution of parliament from the king, triggering snap elections scheduled for November 14th. However, just three days before the scheduled election, Japan launched a brazen attack on British territories in Southeast Asia, plunging the nation into a state of crisis. The sudden escalation of hostilities provided a stark reminder of the external threats facing Britain and fueled a sense of urgency among the electorate. Against this backdrop of uncertainty and national emergency, the Vanguard Partyseized the moment to galvanize support for its nationalist agenda, the Vanguard Party scored a resounding electoral victory, sweeping to power in a landslide victory. With a clear mandate from the British people, Blackwood and the Vanguard Party embarked on a mission to restore national pride, reclaim Britain's status as a global power, and chart a new course for the country's future.
 
Technically speaking that's not contradictory, atheism is the lack of beliefs in a deity or deities, not the disbelief in the supernatural.

Incidentally, that and a variety of other things is why on the maps I use the category of Irreligious and not Atheist.
Indeed, Atheism is specifically belief in God(s) to be exact, not lesser supernatural entities, but I wanted to mean is that in the Anglophone/Western internet, "Atheist" usually mean people who do not believe in any kind of higher power in general.
 
Dominion of Tamerlane:
Timurid Invasion of China


Timurid-Invasion-of-China-High.jpg

The World in Waiting (1394-1400)

What you say is true, and I was to pay what was due. However, do not burden yourselves with such tribute, for I shall deliver it for you.

- Timur, before he arrested the Ming ambassadors and executed their guards. (1393)

The fifteenth century has dawned upon the world, and Timur stood triumphant against the rising sun.

The Mamluks, once housing Sultan Ahmad of the Jalayirids and executing the emir's envoys in defiance, succumbed to his demands after the capture of Sultan Barquq during the Battle of Samarra (1394). Tokhtamysh of the Golden Horde was also captured during the Battle of Terek River (1395), bestowing his throne to a more subservient lot. Bayezid I of the Ottoman Empire, who once seethed his lettered words with vile and vim, finally humbled himself upon the emir, recognizing his rule across the eastern highlands, surrendered his enemies to his court, and, in return, courted with pleasantries of a marriage alliance between their grandsons and granddaughters and martial support of five thousand men for the sultan's campaign against the withering Byzantines.

With the threats from his west swiftly tamed, Timur and his army marched eastward to Samarkand, forwarding Saifuddin Allahdad - one of his personal followers, to Transoxania to complete four tasks: To chart the depths of the eastern mountains and beyond, to cultivate farms and pastures along the eastern marches, to build forts and mustering grounds eastward of the Syr Darya river, and to support Muhammad Sultan Mirza - heir apparent and his favored grandson, in rallying the tribes in Chaghatayid lands [1]. This while Timur was invading the already weakened Tughlaq of the Dehli Sultanate from 1398-1399, returning to the capital once more to frolic with the plunders from the once unconquered empire.

Thus, in 1400, when all the snow covering the Rome of the East melted, when the people of Samarkand - from the needy to the noble, whispered of his next grand design, Timur - the Commander of the Chaghatays and the Unconquered Lord of the Seven Climes, emerged from the ornate gates of Ak Sarai (White Palace) with chained Chinese envoys on his left and his grandson to his right. Facing an army of 200,000 stretching to the horizon, he stood tall for his men to witness as he boasted his most magnificent campaign yet:

"Let us offer tribute to the pig-faced emperor, this master of a realm on which the serpents bestowed a mortal man divinity and power. For what right do we deny his tribute? Thus, it is within our oath to deliver our obligations to him."

With a wave of his hand, the envoys were released from their chains and gifted them his fastest steeds, for Timur ordered them to gallop as fast as they could, for he shall trail them to claim his greatest prize: China.

Historical Footnotes and References

[1] Chaghatayid lands refer to Central Asia, especially Tranxosania and Eastern Turkestan.

Timur - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timur

Tokhtamysh - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tokhtamysh

Muhammad Sultan Mirza - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muhammad_Sultan_Mirza

At the Gates of Khanbaliq (1400-1403)


"I gazed upon the invaders when they caught us crossing the roads, and realized how different they look compared to barbarians of the north. They all come in shades; few are the typical barbarians from the mountains, but some are tanned with large noses and fair-skinned with blue eyes."

- Anonymous, supposed recollections from the Journal of Yan (1422)

While the commanders and eunuch spies were clamoring to Nanjing to warn the already distraught Jiawen Emperor [1], some reported that Timur and his army passed through the Hexi Corridor unscathed within a mere month (April 19th - May 24th, 1400); Mongol auxiliaries betrayed the garrisons of the Jiayu Pass, and the regional commanderies were too feeble to oppose the emir's army. To the imperial court's relief, Timur and the Chaghatay army marched along the northern side of the Yellow River instead of heading toward Sichuan. With the possibility that he and his already rebellious uncle, Zhu Di - the Prince of Yan, will clash against each other, the emperor commands a withdrawal from Zhu Di's dominion (encompasses modern-day Beijing and Hebei) while leaving a small contingent to observe the theatre, intending to have them wither themselves until his army can deliver the killing blow — despite the dismay of many generals within the imperial court.

However, as Timur struck victory with each battle against the commanderies and princely fiefdoms, he gained support from the Turco-Mongol tribes residing under Ming suzerainty. With a sense of proto-nationalist euphoria, many chieftains rallied towards the emir as they viewed him as the restorer of Mongol authority across China. It was enough to rally 25,000 horsemen on his side, delegating half of them to Muhammad Sultan as another envoy to the declining Yuan Dynasty, with the recently-pardoned Tokhtamysh as the acting commander of his right wing.

Since Timur's incursion, Ming spies reported the emir spent two years occupying the Gansu region. From plundering to extortion, his army sustained itself by living off the land and through the flowing logistics provided by Moghulistan caravans and satisfied by the generous share of loot they received galloping across the riverside. They also informed the emperor of Zhu Di's probing attacks against the Army; they revealed themselves far more disciplined than his northern foes, even slaying his Mongolian vassal - Qoryocin, and his regiments [2].

However, it wasn't until the Autumn of 1403 that Yan scouts witnessed a swirling of dust heading towards Beijing, later revealed to be Timur marching with his 60,000 men detachment. In return, he rallied over 90,000, which included 40,000 from his princely brothers and 12,000 Mongolian auxiliaries from the northern regions. Timur and the Prince of Yan met for the first time at Lugou River, clashing on a bridge once crossed by Marco Polo. Unfortunately for Zhu Di, his nomadic auxiliaries — barring a few, were revealed to be conspiring with Muhammad Mirza for years since his arrival. Fear of being enveloped, the prince rallied the rest of his reserve in flight while his main force crushed from both sides, leaving him to collect his regiments and family in Beijing and seek refuge from the east while his son, Zhu Gaozhi, volunteered to remain behind.

When Timur and his forces arrived at the city and demanded their peaceful surrender, Gaozhi refused and declared the people would fight to the last man. In return, instead to the defenders themselves, he decreed this to his men in a Chaghatayid tongue unfamiliar to the Chinese:

"When we enter this city, none shall leave without bearing four heads on their belts. May God have mercy to those suffering under this fool's arrogance, for I do not."

Historical Footnotes and References

[1] Jianwen Emperor historically faced numerous problems when disposing of the princely vassals (his uncles' fiefdom), especially against Zhu Di - the future Yongle Emperor.

[2] Qoryocin and his people surrendered to the future Yongle Emperor in 1381, becoming his right-hand man and eventually Marquis of Tongan after Zhu Di's ascension to the Dragon Throne.

Jianwen Emperor - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jianwen_Emperor

Zhu Di, Prince of Yan - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yongle_Emperor

Princely States - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Princes_of_the_Ming_dynasty

When The Yellow River Turned Red (1403-1406)


"The Great Timur gallops freely across the land of the infidels, cutting through them like a scythe mowing through grass. He knows and fears nothing but the Almighty himself for what the world means to him when he shall visit the afterlife."

- Sharaf al-Din Ali Yazdi, detailing his triumph against the Chinese in the Zafarnama - Book of Victories (1415)

From dusk to dawn, lasting over five days, over 150,000-320,000 men, women, and children are slaughtered. Beijing's riches, from the largest jade to the tiniest golden scrap, were striped to reward the emir's men and enrich his beloved capital, Samarkand. Despite the onslaught, only the tradesmen, from artisans to engineers, were spared to support the war effort or migrate to Tranxosanian proper.

When Bunyashiri - Timur's protege and recently-crowned Khagan of the Yuan Dynasty [1], and his 50,000 men bore witness after emerging from the Yanshan Mountains, he recollected:

"The capital of my forebears is no longer of my own, being stolen by the rebellious. As retribution, the Commander of the Chaghatay smites it into a smoldering black spot as an example to the rest."

Since 1404, in a calculated strategy to create massive waves of refugees heading toward the south, Timur committed his greatest atrocities across the North China Plain. From erecting spikes of the impaled to be displayed across towns to the disemboweling of selected village peasants and elders, he encouraged his commanders to employ whatever means necessary for them to achieve his grand design. Many cities, especially Taiyuan and Liaocheng, followed the example of their Beijing counterparts as their people were slaughtered in the thousands; the emir ordered the construction of towers to display their heads for the survivors and refugees to witness.

In consequence, hundreds of thousands (350,000-1,250,000) were butchered, and millions flocked towards Southern China to seek sanctuary from the rather indecisive Jiawen Emperor; many accounts cited hauling ships sinking into the depths of the Yellow River due to the brunt of overcrowding. The sudden crisis has strained the already indecisive imperial government as Nanjing faces rapid overpopulation, worsened by food shortages due to the loss of the northern farmlands.

Realizing that the Army was a greater threat to his imperial authority than the princely fiefdoms, he set course for diplomatic couriers to grant amnesty to his uncles and levied 350,000 men to repel the invaders, with Li Jinglong [2] - son of an influential duke, as appointed commander-in-chief.

In 1405, After witnessing the Ming army crossing through the Yellow River during autumn, Timur splintered his 175,000-manned forces into four mobile formations to avoid capture; Muhammad Sultan, Totkhamysh, and Bunyashiri led their respective detachments. Instead of fighting against impossible odds, he attempted to deprive them until they were weak enough to be crushed, using tactics such as destroying their wagon supply routes, committing night raids against stationed camps, skirmishing marching formations, and razing the farmlands and grain depot. He was able to deprive Li Jinglong's forces; his army dwindled from 350,000 to 225,000.

While his army is regrouping near Jinan, Muhammad Sultan — by Timur's orders, deceives Li Jinglong into believing that he is the emir; he dresses in colorful garbs and carries large ornate yurts to display a pretense of an invading royalty. Marching from Yuncheng, the commander-in-chief's relentless pursuit against him deprived the levies of decent rest, which caused exhaustion and even desertion. Li Jinglong seemed to corner the heir apparent in a mountain valley southeast of Jinan but was too late to realize the emir's ploy as eighty thousand soldiers - veterans of numerous campaigns since Timur's rise, had emerged from the forested mountain slopes. Believing he could still win through sheer numbers, Li Jinglong ordered a massive charge to end the nomadic threat. However, he later discovered that their infamous cavalry (numbering over 55,000) emerged against his rear, with the actual Timur leading its vanguard. Thus, the battle ended in a Timurid triumph when he led the charge against an exhausted army's exposed formation.

With the largest contingent of the Ming Army destroyed within a single battle, the army was free to cross the Yellow River unchallenged. Across the entire year of 1406, Timur exploited such opportunity extensively: They galloped to pillage cities and villages stretching from Xuzhou and Yancheng, eventually diverting towards the Xian to crush the resisting Prince of Jin and finally occupying China's breadbasket region, Sichuan. From the arid plains of Jiayuguan to the shores of Yancheng, all of Northern China is under the reign of the Timurid Empire, closely resembling the Mongol Empire of the old.

However, despite the numerous triumphs, new problems arise: The Yangtze River seems impenetrable due to the patrolling Ming riverboats, and the further they dive into the southern mountains, the further they are from the logistics of Moghulistan caravans, unable to live off the land when the people tilling the fields are gone. His army became more anxious and sickly for home; even Muhammad Sultan himself questioned his grandfather's grand design.

As for Timur himself, he collapsed during his march towards Xian and, for the remainder of the invasion, was carried by an ornate carriage [3]. For the first time in his life, the emir realizes that death is at his doorstep.

Historical Footnotes and References

[1] Bunyashiri - or Öljei Temür was granted asylum under Timur's court and converted to Islam. Timur planned to restore Yuan rule across Mongolia and China through him, but some scholars disagreed due to his legitimacy revolving around the Chaghatayid throne.

[2] Li Jinglong was appointed commander-in-chief due to the frequent failures of Marquis Geng Bingwen - his predecessor. Since his appointment, he attempted to recruit 500,000-600,000 levies and was tricked into marching his armies during severe winter, losing countless soldiers in the process.

[3] According to Spanish envoy, Ruy González de Clavijo, Timur was occasionally carried by a litter, especially as he aged.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Öljei_Temür_Khan

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Li_Jinglong

When the Titans Clashed (1406-1408)


"As son of heaven, I command my uncle - the Prince of Yan, to raise his sword and lead my men. As you had done under my grandfather, I shall bestow you the mission to repel the Tartar threat and reclaim the lands of our ancestors."

- Jianwen Emperor, bestowing a letter of amnesty to Zhu Di during his refuge in Joseon Korea.

By the dawn of 1406, China is in turmoil.

The Ming dynasty faced the greatest foreign invasion since Chinggiz Khan's incursion of the Jurchen Dynasty. The loss of both Sichuan and the North China Valley deprived the people residing south, especially Nanjing; food shortages shifted to deadly famines, and the rest of the stockpile was reserved for the war effort. Signs of plague began to emerge as some refugees inadvertently carried bubonic disease, inflicting the deaths of thousands and even forcing the Jianwen Emperor to leave the premises, isolating the capital in the process.

However, the Prince of Yan sailed to Nanjing with an army — 20,000 men comprised of veterans of the Battle of Lugou Bridge and Jurchen auxiliaries from both sides of the Amur River, on his back. Becoming the emperor's new commander-in-chief and war minister, he raised 250,000 levies and organized them as loose independent divisions rather than a single marching army. Instead of seeking decisive battles, he uses the Yangtze River as staging grounds for skirmishes and raids, attempting to exhaust Chaghatay formations through sporadic marches.

Ma He - Zhu Di's eunuch general and appointed grand admiral [1], recounted his experience of such strategies when sailing towards the charred fiefdom of the Prince of Yan:

"We sailed towards Beijing with a hundred ships; we crewed a few but left the others sparse, but enough to give the pretense of a moving army. We stuck close to the shores and lit our lanterns when the skies went dark, everything to attract Tartar scouts while dissuading any suspicion. Every time we pretend to land, they gallop to the beaches to prepare for battle but find wanting as we depart instead. We commit such maneuvers across the Yellow Sea to deprive and confuse them, pulling a contingent of their forces north to make theatre amicable for the prince."

It was successful enough for Zhu Di to launch an expedition to liberate Yancheng and repel the Yuan auxiliaries occupying the northern half of Wuhan, enough for Henan-Jiangbei to become a contested region once again. However, pitch battles against the greater army proved more difficult than the prince anticipated: His numerous but ill-trained levies were no match against Timur's well-experienced and disciplined professional soldiers, and the actual battles he'd won were pyrrhic; he lost 45,000 soldiers during the Battle of Wuhu against Muhammad Sultan.

Despite enduring casualties, the prince received a relief of 75,000 levies, and his victories provoked Timur's ire; his scouts reported a massive gathering of his forces westward of Xuzhou, presumably to reconsolidate the region and repel his liberation force as he did with Li Jinglong's. Recognizing such deception similar to Jinan and receiving reports of swirling dust heading towards Wuhan, Zhu Di intercepted Muhammad Sultan's formation during the Battle of Chongsan Mountain (1407). From there, he allowed the heir apparent to fall back with his remaining cohort while the prince's forces trailed him to their mustering grounds.

A few weeks later, Zhu Di took advantage of the emerging winter to conceal his army's movement from scouts, reaching the outskirts of Xuzhou despite the lost decent men. But much to his surprise, his scouts report that Timur's men and his commanders are marching in unison towards the Xinbian River, purportedly abandoning his initial ploy to avenge his grandson's defeat.

From there, with an army depleted to 200,000 forces - including his foreign auxiliaries, he meets the outnumbered Army of 140,000 men. While taking the offensive, Zhu Di took notice of Timur reorganizing his battle formation; He diverted half of his eastern wing (led by Muhammad Sultan Mirza) to reinforce his western counterpart (Tokhtamysh), organized Bunyashiri's men into skirmishing parties, and slightly tilted his entire line backward from his eastern flank. Believing Timur wanted to rout the western wing to envelope and destroy his army, the prince evened both wings and took command of the rear to prevent immediate collapse. Despite the marginal casualties inflicted by the harassing horse archers, he made contact with his foe in massive numbers. His army grinds against the Chaghatay footman, whose morale was wavering due to the exhaustive years of marching and fighting. To his delight, his couriers relayed that Muhammad Sultan's wing was slowly pushed back by his Jurchen cavalry, albeit not routed as previously assumed. However, Muhammad Sultan eventually revealed his ploy: While the Jurchen pushed themselves behind the rear, a contingent of Iranian spearmen - who had hidden themselves in the snow, unraveled their shrouds and charged at the cavalry's flank. Such a move routed the Jurchens after suffering massive casualties and left Zhu Di's eastern wing vulnerable. He was also relayed that Muhammad Sultan, immediately accompanied by Timur's elite guards, attacked his rear; each of his levy cohorts slowly fell to disorder due to the pressure deployed by both commanders. Realizing the slow collapse and with no reserves to counter the enemy, Zhu Di and his remaining cavalry (both Chinese and Jurchen) retreated as the Chaghatay army enveloped the thousands of levies left behind, unable to reform themselves due to the pursuing Bunyashiri and his Yuan forces.

It was another disaster inflicted by Timur, but not without cost. While defeated, Zhu Di's forces inflicted massive casualties; His scouts, returning to the battlefield to witness remains, reported that over 65,000 of the emir's men had fallen. It was a defeat that crushed any means of resistance the Jianwen Emperor could deploy, and it was also a defeat that saved China from another impending onslaught.

Historical Footnotes and References

[1] Ma He was a Hui eunuch from Yunnan brought by Zhu Di's mentor, General Fu Youde. After years of serving under him, he changed the commander's name to Zheng He - admiral of the Treasure Fleet, since his ascension as the Yongle Emperor.

Ma He - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zheng_He

To Mourn for the Young and Old (1408-Beyond)


"Timur - the Unconquered Lord of the Seven Climes, is now rendered lame and blind for his sins against the believers. Guided by his blessed son - Shah Rukh, he lords over his father's dominion with wisdom and guile, leading faithful from the gardens of Samarkand."

- Ibn Arabshah [1], summarizes the contrast between Timur and Shah Rukh in his contemporary biography, The Wonders of Destiny of the Ravages of Timur.

Timur faced a pyrrhic victory during the Battle of Xinbian River; despite destroying the entire Ming army in a single battle once again, his army was reduced to 75,000 men. Many of his commanders and soldiers expressed bitter mutiny, pleading to return home with the spoils they had. However, it was Muhammad Sultan Mirza who convinced him as he — revealed by his guards, to have died from his wounds. With an army too meager to siege Nanjing and mourning over his grandson's death [2], he returned to the restored Beijing — renamed again as Khanbaliq, and departed from Bunyashiri as Timur and his remaining army marched back to Samarkand.

His return to his capital was polarizing: His plunder of China's insurmountable riches accelerated the development of his domain (especially Tranxosania, Khawresm, and Khorasan), and the capture of many skilled Chinese tradesmen, especially gunsmiths, allowed the proliferation of cannons and arquebuses in his army and turned Tranxosania into an economic powerhouse [3]; however, the supposed triumphant parade was disappointingly brief and silent, and it shall be Timur's final conquest as he peacefully lords his dominion for the next five years.

Shah Rukh - the impromptu regent of the Timurid Empire [4], informed of what transpired around his empire since his departure: Bayezid, with the support of Timurid aid, conquered Constantinople and declared himself Kayser-i Rum (Caesar of Rome); Mecca and Medina are now under a new Caliphate with a territory stretching from the mountains of Yemen to the shores of Gulf of Aqaba; and the Golden Horde, with their Novgorod allies, razed Muscovy into the ground.

The last five years of Timur's reign were his attempt to redeem himself to the Islamic faith, especially when he contemplated whether his slaughter of infidels was enough to absolve his past sins. Abandoning the Yasa (Mongol Law), he introduced many Persian customs into his Turco-Mongol court, granted himself the title Padishah (Master King), and replaced the Chaghatay throne by force with his own imperial line; the nomadic tribes who defied his legitimacy were either slaughtered, settled or coerced to move east.

In 1413, knowing he was nearing his end, Timur gathered all his sons and grandsons into Samarkand. From here, he declared his will in front of all his family and followers to witness and honor: For Pir Muhammad - Muhammad Sultan's half-brother, he shall receive the east (Eastern Afghanistan and India); Miran Shah will receive the west (Iraq, Ar-Raqqah, Eastern Anatolia, Caucasus, and Tabarestan); and Shah Rukh, being proven far capable than expected, receives the lion's share and the nominal title of Padishah. Declaring the Shahada one last time, Timur - the Unconquered Lord of the Seven Climes, gasped his last breath and passed away during the silent winter.

During the first few years of Shah Rukh's reign, Ghiyathuddin Naqqash [5] - the Padishah's envoy to China, returned to the Ak Saray to relay his findings:

"The country (China) is divided into two realms: The northern lands under the faithful (Bunyashiri's restored Yuan Dynasty), and the southern depths divided by warring princes. Once ravaged by civil strife, the Great Khan brought good to his realm: He developed roads, farms, and cities, continued the trade flow of silk and fine china, and erected many mosques in his capital. In contrast, I was greeted by earthen walls when reaching south; its commander shared tales of deadly plagues, disorderly princes, and even raging dragons. When I asked what happened to the emperor, he merely briefed me of his murder."

Despite his prosperous reign and triumph against Miran Shah and his sons, Shah Rukh passed away in 1445. Like Timur himself, he passed his titles to his sons, with Ulugh Beg inheriting the Persianate (Iran and Western Afghanistan) and the title of Padishah. However, the polities of the greater Timurid Empire no longer recognized his authority, with Pir Muhammad's sons conquering India and Khalil Sultan's dominion warring against the resurgent Golden Horde.

Miran Shah, while defeated, was given a generous pardon to rule east of the Syr Darya River (Tashkent and Otrar). From here, he lord his dominion peacefully and bestowed the title to his son, his son to his grandson, and so on. However, it wasn't until 1483 when Qutlugh Nigar Khanum - a princess from Eastern Moghulistan and Umar Shaikh's consort, gave birth to a boy.

A boy who will follow in the footsteps of his ancestors. A boy who will cross the mountains and tame the warring states. A boy - predestined by the aligning spheres, to wield the sword and claim the middle kingdom for God and his house.

A boy named Babur.

Historical Footnotes and References

[1] Ibn Arabshah was a contemporary chronicler of Timur's life, who was carried off with his mother and brothers to Samarkand as a prisoner. In contrast to Sharaf al-Din Ali Yazdi, the Arabshah's accounts were scathing due to his personal experience during the Siege of Damascus (1400)

[2] Timur was distraught by the news of Muhammad Sultan Mirza's death, to the point he ordered the entire population of Samarkand into a state of mourning.

[3] Timur was known for sparing skilled tradesmen from his numerous onslaughts, especially engineers and artisans. To deter them from returning to their homeland, Timur imposed ferry restrictions on the Amu Darya River to prevent unauthorized travel.

[4] In contrast to Timur, his grandson, Shah Rukh, mended his ties with the Ming Dynasty. Such normalization allowed unprecedented flow of trade across the Silk Road.

[5] Shah Rukh sent Ghiyathuddin Naqqash as a Timurid ambassador to the Yongle Emperor, bringing elaborate descriptions of Beijing and even gifts.

Shah Rukh - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shah_Rukh#Administration

Miran Shah - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miran_Shah

Babur - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Babur
Wonderful and simply MARVELLOUS! As a TL writer who attempted a somewhat realistic Timurid invasion rife with logistical problems, I quickly realised the merit of establishing supply lines.

Also you are the first one I've seen to have realised that attacking during the Jingnan crisis would ensure a Timurid victory. That means DOING away or shortening his western campaigns. Though the war Against Ottomans was averted in a rather surprising way, one can't help but wonder what would have happened if Beyazid returned the politeness Timur addressed him in the first two letters...

And you divided the empire into three! Not one but three Timurid empires, together with Golden horde and Ottomans would be a nigh unstoppable conquering machine. Though now with the big man dead they'll soon start squabbling and I can't wait to see what you do with Babur, if you have the will to continue.


Also which basemap did you use?
 
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I was debating whether to put this here, in the Graphic thread, or in the Photos from Alternate Worlds thread, but since it does prominently feature a map, here we go...

OYHxuO2.png


The above is a page from the high school textbook Eachtraidh na n-Gaoidheil, "History of the Gaels", used in the United Kingdom of Scotland, Ireland and the Isles.

Unlike IOTL, where the mythological history of Ireland arising from mediaeval works like the Lebor Gabála Érenn and the Auraicept na n-Éces is, if at all, taught as mythology, in the UKSII it is still taught (much like the Bible) as real historical fact.

Hence, the map shows the migration of the tribe of Manasseh (which has, ITTL, been identified as the specific Lost Tribe of Israel the Celts descended from) to Scythia, then to Gallaecia, and finally to Ireland (and Scotland). To be clear, this isn't true ITTL anymore than it is IOTL - it's just what's taught in the UKSII's schools. In a sense, you could argue that this shows alternate history within an alternate timeline. AHception.

The figure texts read:

Figure 1. How the Gaels came to Ireland​
Figure 2. Painting of Miles MacBile MacBrogan MacBrath (16th century A.D.), by Hermann tom Ring​

The main body:

When the Sons of Manasseh were expelled from Israel by the Assyrians in 722 B.C., they migrated to the Caucasus and the Black Sea region. They established a great kingdom, the Kingdom of the Scythians. In Crimea, some of them departed for Anatolia, where they founded the Kingdom of the Galatians.​
The Scythians themselves were then expelled by the Persians approximately 200 years later in the 6th century B.C. They then began a very lengthy migration. Some of them went to France (as it is today) and became the Gauls. Another contingent went to Britain, becoming the Brythonic Celts; both peoples no longer exist today.​
But our own forefathers went to the North of Iberia, where they brought forth a great hero, Brath. For this reason, they became known as the MacBrath (Sons of Brath). Look at Figure 1 to see where the MacBrath and the Gauls were relative to one another at the time.​
When the Romans came to Iberia, Miles MacBile MacBrogan MacBrath, High King of the MacBrath (see Figure 2), soon realised that the MacBrath would not survive if they remained in Iberia. This is why they sailed to Ireland in the 1st century B.C.​

The questions:

1. Which country did the Gaels originate from?​
2. Who was Manasseh?​
3. Who were the Scythians?​
4. Are we, today, Jews?​
5. Do we share our ancestry with any modern country?​
 
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