WI the Philippine Army was better trained and given Garands in 1941?

Johnrankins · Sep 6, 2019

Let's say 6 months of better training and all of them armed with Garands. Let's say the various difficulties in making them are fixed six months early due to a larger development budget.

general · Sep 7, 2019

It will make no difference unless you get rid of McArthur.

jsb · Sep 7, 2019

Johnrankins said:
Let's say 6 months of better training and all of them armed with Garands. Let's say the various difficulties in making them are fixed six months early due to a larger development budget.

I would far rather have more older weapons in larger numbers ie huge amounts of WWI surplus handed out (even make each reservist take a rifle home) early (ie 1939/40) to a much larger Philippine Army?

marathag · Sep 7, 2019

Johnrankins said:
Let's say 6 months of better training and all of them armed with Garands. Let's say the various difficulties in making them are fixed six months early due to a larger development budget.

It's not that they lost because of not having Garands, they didn't have enough M1903 to go around.

At the time, there were all kinds of M1917 Enfields and M1928 30-06 ammunition that would never be used during the War.

Had Dugout Doug not criminally mishandled the raising of a Philippine Army, they could have been equipped with surplus WWI weapons

marathag · Sep 7, 2019

jsb said:
I would far rather have more older weapons in larger numbers ie huge amounts of WWI surplus handed out (even make each reservist take a rifle home) early (ie 1939/40) to a much larger Philippine Army?

Army was really larger than could be trained as it was: an no, they really didn't get trained.
An Army half the size would have been far more effective, being fully equipped and having some training

jsb · Sep 7, 2019

marathag said:
Army was really larger than could be trained as it was: an no, they really didn't get trained.
An Army half the size would have been far more effective, being fully equipped and having some training

Was the US/Philippine army not always going to lose unless its far larger, or the USN can come to its rescue faster? I don't think with any late POD you can solve that?

I would simply withdraw all the US troops to Bataan (with pre positioned supplies) and then tell all the Philippine Army (including the scouts) to sit it out at home after having handed out as many rifles as you have (and give the scouts well buried stocks of mines/grenades etc) then let IJA behaviour start to hurt them?

marathag · Sep 7, 2019

jsb said:
Was the US/Philippine army not always going to lose unless its far larger, or the USN can come to its rescue faster? I don't think with any late POD you can solve that?

I would simply withdraw all the US troops to Bataan (with pre positioned supplies) and then tell all the Philippine Army (including the scouts) to sit it out at home after having handed out as many rifles as you have (and give the scouts well buried stocks of mines/grenades etc) then let IJA behaviour start to hurt them?

There isn't enough money to get a large enough Army to repel the Japanese Invasion.
Isn't enough to stop them once they move inland

Might be enough to defend central Luzon, if you didn't have a dope like dugout Doug who advanced supplies to forward depots, then burn them when outflanked to prevent capture

Crowbar Six · Sep 7, 2019

A better trained Philippine army with actual working rifles (of any type) would have done much better than OTL. A more successful defence of the Philippines would have bled the IJN of troops and equipment, of course you would need to have a competent and aggressive commander. If Slim had been American he would have been a perfect commanding General for the task.

Driftless · Sep 7, 2019

Wasn't there also an issue with the quality of the old 30.06 ammo? Deterioration of the powder due to extended storage time in heat, and humidity?

eltf177 · Sep 7, 2019

IIRC the Garand was a bit on the bulky side for the smaller Philippine soldier. Agreed that few solders in the pipeline so those in it could be better trained and equipped would be a big help.

But Dugout Doug has to go...

marathag · Sep 7, 2019

Driftless said:
Wasn't there also an issue with the quality of the old 30.06 ammo? Deterioration of the powder due to extended storage time in heat, and humidity?

In the '50-'70s there was plenty of .45 and 30-06 mil surplus out there with pre-1939 headstamps, and it all reliably went 'bang' when the trigger was pulled back then.

the only old ammo I ever had problem with, was with pre 1920 manufacture. Smokeless powder before that point had real problems with degredation, and that's only compounded by poor storage.

Namayan · Sep 7, 2019

The budget for equipment for Philippines in 1936 based on National Defense Act of 1935 was around 3.6M php. Back then the exchange was US$1 = 2 Philippine Pesos

A more detailed version of the official act:
https://www.officialgazette.gov.ph/1935/12/21/commonwealth-act-no-1/

Budget for Ordnance, signal, engineer and chemical defense armament was P2,605,741.00
Budget for Ammunition of all calibers and types was 463,900.00

Training Budget was abysmal. Training costs of Reserve Officers’ Training Corps : Php 137,000.00

In most cases, there was no training for units larger than a company. MacArthur had believed that at the
end of the Commonwealth period, the Philippines would have at least 400, 000 reserve citizen-soldiers.
By 1938, however, only 69,848 had been given intensive military training, as against the projected
120,000 for a three-year period at the rate of 40,000 a year.

http://www.dnd.gov.ph/pdf/history.pdf

Edit: So, if the projections were on point, at least by 1941 there would be 240,000 well trained and well equipped reserve ATL wank of Philippine army 1941 vs OTLs 100,000 poorly equipped and trained Philippine army.

If you are going to fully wank the Commonwealth armed force, might as well give them 36 planned Torpedo boats and 100 tactical bombers. I suppose the OTL 12 P26 peashooters that shot down a couple of Zeros and Japanese bombers would be replaced also with something more advanced.

What tactical bombers and fighters would US allow to sell or give to the Philippines by ATL 1936?

Driftless · Sep 7, 2019

Namayan said:
What tactical bombers and fighters would US allow to sell or give to the Philippines by ATL 1936?

In 1935-36 both the Seversky P-35 & Curtis P-36 were just out of design phase, but going into production shortly; so probably more of the P-26 Peashooters, or the not-so-old Curtis P-6 Biplanes(Many Air Forces were still flying biplanes in the mid 30's). Hold out for another year or so, and the technology jump would be fairly significant. The P-35's had their fifteen minutes of being technology "hot stuff" that passed by 1938-39? The P-36 was still a very useful fighter into 1942-43.

For light bombers: maybe some variant of the Curtis Shrike single-engine light bomber. There were a few of them still on the USAAC roster into early 1942 I believe.

marathag · Sep 7, 2019

Namayan said:
What tactical bombers and fighters would US allow to sell or give to the Philippines by ATL 1936?

Give?
Buy.

Curtiss was trying to sell the Hawk 75 (having lost to Seversky's P-35) as they had been doing with previous Hawk fighters thru the 1920s, but was running into the Neutrality Act from parts of the FDR administration.

Douglas had similar problems in trying to sell the B-18 to France, it was set a 'Classified' no export at first, even though there's not much difference from the B-18 to the DC-2 that they were selling around the globe

McPherson · Sep 7, 2019

A Lot to unpack here.

jsb said:
I would far rather have more older weapons in larger numbers ie huge amounts of WWI surplus handed out (even make each reservist take a rifle home) early (ie 1939/40) to a much larger Philippine Army?

Nothing wrong with the 'O3 or the ammunition. What was needed was something else.

marathag said:
It's not that they lost because of not having Garands, they didn't have enough M1903 to go around.

Agreed, but you needed something else.

At the time, there were all kinds of M1917 Enfields and M1928 30-06 ammunition that would never be used during the War.

KISS. A new army starting out, needs to keep its logistics tail "simple".

Had Dugout Doug not criminally mishandled the raising of a Philippine Army, they could have been equipped with surplus WWI weapons

Where was he supposed to get the money?

jsb said:
Was the US/Philippine army not always going to lose unless its far larger, or the USN can come to its rescue faster? I don't think with any late POD you can solve that?

They could have made it, except for a little thing called Pearl Harbor, despite MacArthur. It turns out that the IJN was not all that hot when caught in a major fleet action. I don't (Well, now I do, Somerville was given rotten recon information and his carrier captains really let him down.) know what happened to the RN off Sri Lanka, but in their first 3 carrier duels with the USN, the IJN were lucky to get out alive. F.J. Fletcher was MURDER on them.

I would simply withdraw all the US troops to Bataan (with pre positioned supplies) and then tell all the Philippine Army (including the scouts) to sit it out at home after having handed out as many rifles as you have (and give the scouts well buried stocks of mines/grenades etc) then let IJA behaviour start to hurt them?

An education in booby traps; IEDs and improvised weaponry is probably more effective. Filipinos are smart, courageous, clever and quick learners. All they need is a little TRAINING.

Crowbar Six said:
A better trained Philippine army with actual working rifles (of any type) would have done much better than OTL. A more successful defence of the Philippines would have bled the IJN of troops and equipment, of course you would need to have a competent and aggressive commander. If Slim had been American he would have been a perfect commanding General for the task.

Wainwright. Not to take away from Slim, but the guy who managed the five month stand after SUTHERLAND effed everything up, would be my choice. He was an old Filipino hand who understood the people at the common man level and was not "airified' like MacArthur and the "Manila Elites".

Driftless said:
Wasn't there also an issue with the quality of the old 30.06 ammo? Deterioration of the powder due to extended storage time in heat, and humidity?

No.

eltf177 said:
IIRC the Garand was a bit on the bulky side for the smaller Philippine soldier. Agreed that few solders in the pipeline so those in it could be better trained and equipped would be a big help.

A carbine? The US does not have a good one in the 1930s. The '03 is manageable. Training is a cascade effect. You train a model unit, then distribute the trained soldiers to other units. IOW, you Baron von Steuben the Filipino Army. It takes time. A year, if you do it right. MacArthur's incompetent staff (This includes EISENHOWER.) did it wrong.

But Dugout Doug has to go...

His staff has to go. He had good unit commanders and he was alright as a "face".

marathag said:
In the '50-'70s there was plenty of .45 and 30-06 mil surplus out there with pre-1939 head stamps, and it all reliably went 'bang' when the trigger was pulled back then.

The only old ammo I ever had problem with, was with pre 1920 manufacture. Smokeless powder before that point had real problems with degredation, and that's only compounded by poor storage.

Agreed.

Namayan said:
The budget for equipment for Philippines in 1936 based on National Defense Act of 1935 was around 3.6M php. Back then the exchange was US$1 = 2 Philippine Pesos

A more detailed version of the official act:
https://www.officialgazette.gov.ph/1935/12/21/commonwealth-act-no-1/

Budget for Ordnance, signal, engineer and chemical defense armament was P2,605,741.00
Budget for Ammunition of all calibers and types was 463,900.00

Training Budget was abysmal. Training costs of Reserve Officers’ Training Corps : Php 137,000.00

http://www.dnd.gov.ph/pdf/history.pdf

Edit: So, if the projections were on point, at least by 1941 there would be 240,000 well trained and well equipped reserve ATL wank of Philippine army 1941 vs OTLs 100,000 poorly equipped and trained Philippine army.

How much of that was Quezon's fault and how much MacArthur's and how much was it Francis Bowes Sayre, Sr.? Too many cooks syndrome.

If you are going to fully wank the Commonwealth armed force, might as well give them 36 planned Torpedo boats and 100 tactical bombers. I suppose the OTL 12 P26 peashooters that shot down a couple of Zeros and Japanese bombers would be replaced also with something more advanced.

What tactical bombers and fighters would US allow to sell or give to the Philippines by ATL 1936?

Cryhavoc101 · Sep 7, 2019

Johnrankins said:
Let's say 6 months of better training and all of them armed with Garands. Let's say the various difficulties in making them are fixed six months early due to a larger development budget.

Unlikely to get M1 Garands when there was US Army and US marine units still toting M1903s - right up till 1943 - hell the Marines on Guadalcanal were armed with M1903s!

The rifles are not the problem - better trained and better heavier equipment and better artillery etc and a better prepared air force is the problem (including when they are on the ground - had those guys never heard of revetments?)

And vastly improved and more aggressive Submarine tactics would have been nice

Johnrankins · Sep 7, 2019

Cryhavoc101 said:
Unlikely to get M1 Garands when there was US Army and US marine units still toting M1903s - right up till 1943 - hell the Marines on Guadalcanal were armed with M1903s!

The rifles are not the problem - better trained and better heavier equipment and better artillery etc and a better prepared air force is the problem (including when they are on the ground - had those guys never heard of revetments?)

And vastly improved and more aggressive Submarine tactics would have been nice

I didn't realize some were using Springfields that late! OK, extra training only it is.

Cryhavoc101 · Sep 7, 2019

So there was over 2 million M1917 Enfields (one of the best bolt action battles rifles ever made) - equipping twice as many doughboys in WW1 as the Springfield did.

Not sure how many there were available in 1940 but even 1 or 2 hundred thousand of them would have made a difference

And trying to see if the M1917 Lewis was still available in numbers at this time as the US Armed forces did not seem to be making use of them. Not sure how many were made?

Cryhavoc101 · Sep 7, 2019

Johnrankins said:
I didn't realize some were using Springfields that late! OK, extra training only it is.

Yes the production of the M1 only just kept up with the expansion of the US Armed forces and there was also the m1 Carbine being spammed out as well in its millions at that point when it was finally being produced in enough numbers

But in 1940-41 mass production of the Garand was only really ramping up. And had enough been available then I suspect that they would be heading to Britain and not the PH.

I used to war game extensively and the 'TO&E' for a rifle squad in 1944 had an assistant BAR gunner armed with the Springfield - I suspect as the Gunner and assistant would carry ammunition loose or in 5 round clips unlike the 8 round en bloc clips the Garand used this was the case. That and the Springfield was lighter.

Some units as late as D-Day - (38th Infantry Regiment, 2nd US Infantry Division "Indianhead") coming ashore at D-Day + 2! The second soldier, who is looking at the camera, is Pvt. Vincent M. Killen, Pa carrying a M1903 as is the chap in front. He was killed in action on June 21 1944 (aged 18) at Saint-Georges-d'Elle and is buried at the Normandy American cemetery at Colleville-sur-Mer, Plot J - Row 15 - Grave 23.

Nov 8 1942 - no way that kid is 18!!! A Chemical Mortar unit.

And Germany 1945 guy in foreground carrying a M1903 - possible part of the Camera unit?

Johnrankins · Sep 7, 2019

Cryhavoc101 said:
Yes the production of the M1 only just kept up with the expansion of the US Armed forces and there was also the m1 Carbine being spammed out as well in its millions at that point when it was finally being produced in enough numbers

But in 1940-41 mass production of the Garand was only really ramping up. And had enough been available then I suspect that they would be heading to Britain and not the PH.

I used to war game extensively and the 'TO&E' for a rifle squad in 1944 had an assistant BAR gunner armed with the Springfield - I suspect as the Gunner and assistant would carry ammunition loose or in 5 round clips unlike the 8 round en bloc clips the Garand used this was the case. That and the Springfield was lighter.

Some units as late as D-Day - (38th Infantry Regiment, 2nd US Infantry Division "Indianhead") coming ashore at D-Day + 2! The second soldier, who is looking at the camera, is Pvt. Vincent M. Killen, Pa carrying a M1903 as is the chap in front. He was killed in action on June 21 1944 (aged 18) at Saint-Georges-d'Elle and is buried at the Normandy American cemetery at Colleville-sur-Mer, Plot J - Row 15 - Grave 23.

Nov 8 1942 - no way that kid is 18!!! A Chemical Mortar unit.

And Germany 1945 guy in foreground carrying a M1903 - possible part of the Camera unit?

From what I have read when looked it up, in the late war period Springfields were used mainly as sniper rifles.