Operation Herkules

[tigercat]

I've just read a couple of fiction books about Operation Herkules -the proposed invasion of Malta


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Herkules

What do people think of its liklihood of success ? I suspect that it was feasible but would have seen severe casualties on Axis side particularly the airborne forces .

 

[The Red]

I doubt it could have succeeded, by the time Herkules was set to go ahead the Axis had lost air superiority over the island historically and whilst it could be expected that more aircraft would be concentrated on the island in the build-up to the invasion there's no guarantee that they could defeat the RAF decisively in time. Airborne operations are costly and risky ventures even when complete air superiority is assured, to go ahead with the RAF still very much a threat would be far too much of a gamble. Give that there were also questions over to what extent taking Malta out of the war would actually benefit the Axis position it's understandable as to why the plan was shelved.

 

[thaddeus]

Give that there were also questions over to what extent taking Malta out of the war would actually benefit the Axis position it's understandable as to why the plan was shelved.

my speculation has always been if Axis (likely only Germany) could have gained access to Tunis to cut their shipping losses AND adopted a defensive posture in N.Africa, Malta would have become a real drain on UK (mean the ratio would have been reversed from OTL)

the Axis bombing campaign on Malta though was certainly a waste, conducted over years (varying in intensity) so that has to be weighed?

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

I suspect that it was feasible but would have seen severe casualties on Axis side particularly the airborne forces.

I agree.

However, the Wikipaedia article says that the operation was planned for the middle of July 1942. Therefore, it wouldn't have enabled the Axis army in North Africa to break through the Alamein Line. They might have been able to hold the line for longer and fewer Axis troops might have been captured when it did break. It could have also slowed down the 8th Army's advance into Libya.

Operation Torch is still going to happen. Therefore, Rommel might pull back to the Mareth Line when he did anyway. The British won't be able to attack the convoys to Tunis from Malta ITTL, but they will still be able to do so from bases in Algeria. Therefore, I doubt that the Axis will be able to hold Tunisia for longer than they did IOTL.

In common with OTL Axis domination of the Mediterranean's central basis would have been temporary due to the British capturing Libya and the reinforcement of the British Mediterranean Fleet. Therefore, the Italian garrison of Malta would be forced to surrender in June 1943, that is at the same time as Pantelleria and Lampedusa.

There would have been no Operation Pedestal ITTL had the invasion been successful. That would have avoided the sinking of the aircraft carrier Eagle, the cruisers Manchester and Cairo and the sinking of one British destroyer. The aircraft carrier Indomitable was also put out of action for a year and two other British cruisers were damaged. Eagle and Indomitable would have been useful additions to the Allied fleet in Operation Torch. Indomitable was repaired in time to take part in Operation Husky, but Eagle would also be available ITTL.

 

[King Augeas]

Historically, the Axis lost air superiority over Malta and were unable to regain it just ten days after the plan was approved. Even with additional aircraft (as I believe some were diverted away) it is difficult to see them regaining it, given the ability to fly more Spitfires in and the efficiency of the Malta ground crews. So the invasion would never happen.

If we assume that they do retain air superiority (U-boat in the right place at the right time?), then things get more interesting.

Particularly for the airborne troops, who are getting slaughtered. The paratroopers were supposed to drop on the southern heights, which is reasonably doable, with the expectation of alarmingly high casualty rates from jumping into a rock garden. But rather that than the fate awaiting the glider troops. You can't land a glider on Malta without running straight into a stone wall, unless you land on an airfield. If you do, and the runway hasn't been cut by mines, you can then expect the 24 25-pdrs on the island to plaster you, thereby handily blocking the airfield from further landings.

So the main role of the airborne troops will be to give the British artillery targets as the naval landing goes in. This actually has a reasonable chance of succeeding, as there's a lot of attackers and little chance of resupply for the defenders. The artillery can suppress the landing sites and create delay, but numbers and time may well tell.