Bit disappointed that the Alternative didn't manage more than 15% and 18 seats, but of course there's likely to be another election soon. They could easily manage 20-25% I think and start to encroach in the industrial heartlands. I'm salivating for seat details.
The Politics of Respect: A British Political TL
- Thread starter Politibrit
- Start date
A Conservative-Liberal Democratic coalition seems probable. No referendum is the price for LibDem's support and I can't imagine Cameron unhappy to pay it.
Zwinglian
Banned
He has great reason to be unhappy about it. In his mind it would be an easy win for remain and then UKIP dies. Now UKIP will continue to eat into his vote share
Butterflied away. Blair resigned earlier, meaning the 2007 Holyrood Elections were held when Labour had a Scottish PM in his honeymoon, meaning they performed better and held onto power. That meant an incumbent Labour government in Scotland, and the Lib Dems were stronger due to a lack of coalition, which meant whilst the SNP won power, there was no pro-indy majority in 2012, so no referendum, for now at least.
But would it become more likely in the final years of the TL or afterwards?
Without wanting to give away too much, the next Scottish Elections ITTL will be in 2017, and I plan to end this TL in 2018. It took three years for the referendum to be organised IOTL, so whilst we could reach the stage where a referendum is called in this TL, the actual vote itself would probably happen in a future year, and fall outside the time frame we are dealing with.
Yeah, but this was not his first plan: as spokesman of the less eurosceptic faction of Conservatives, Cameron didn't want the referendum. He hoped to promise it, neutralize UKIP and, after win the election with his LibDem allies, say "Oh sorry, but my coalition partner is against it, I can't do anything".
Alternative MPs
East Ham and Loxford (Linda Smith-Respect)
Bow and Stratford (Puru Miah-Respect)
Newham South (Murad Qureshi-Respect)
Poplar and Stepney (Abdul Sheikh-Respect)
Birmingham Hall Green (Salma Yaqoob-Respect)
Camden Town and Regent’s Park (Owen Jones-Respect)
Oxford East (Caroline Lucas-Green)
Manchester Central (Yasmine Dar-Respect)
Sheffield Central (Natalie Bennett-Respect/Green)
Tottenham South and Stamford Hill (Kate Osamor-Respect)
Deptford and Rotherhithe (Clive Lewis-Respect)
Bradford West (Imran Hussain-Respect)
Lewisham East (Darren Johnson-Green)
Bristol South (Jerry Hicks-Respect)
Norwich South (Adrian Ramsay-Green)
Brighton Pavilion (Keith Taylor-Green)
Bristol West (Molly Scott Cato-Green)
Bethnal Green and Shoreditch (Tommy Sheppard-Respect)
Alternative Senators
Tony Clarke (East Midlands-Respect)
Valerie Wise (North West-Respect)
Christine Shawcroft (London-Respect)
Janet Alder (Yorkshire and Humber-Respect)
Peter Pinkney (North East-Respect)
Rachel Garnham (East of England-Respect)
Lucy Reese (London-Respect)
Lesley Mansell (West of England-Respect)
Helen Griffin (Wales-Respect)
Tony Dyer (South West England-Green)
Mohammed Aikhlaq (West Midlands-Respect)
Martin Hemingway (Yorkshire and Humber-Green)
Shahrar Ali (London-Green)
George Monbiot (South East England-Respect)
Nav Mishra (North West England-Respect)
Derek Wall (South East England-Green)
Ian Drummond (Scotland-Respect Scotland)
There wasn't really much change from OTL with the Veritas breakaway. After that, I didn't really think much about him if I'm honest. I wouldn't say that UKIP are more competent ITTL-after all, they are consistently winning less votes than OTL. However, they have been more successful at actually getting MPs-in part because the main two parties, especially the Tories, are also polling worse, and in part because the relatively positive precedent set by Respect was able to persuade more Tory MPs to defect to them in the belief that they could do so and still stand a good chance of winning their seats.
Spoiler alert: The wiki says Cameron remains PM, therefore he must have won either with coalition or minority government....
Or maybe he continued on temporarily till a new election could be called?
I didn't realise that I'd left that bit in, but i'm relaxed about it. It's pretty clear that Miliband becoming PM off of the back of these results is extremely unlikely, given that even adding all of the Labour, Lib Dem, Alternative, SNP, Plaid and SDLP seats together doesn't get you to a majority.
There will be more on the government formation talks when I post this evening.
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Chapter 48
Chapter 48
David Cameron addresses the nation after the Conservatives emerged as the largest party at the 2016 Election
As the results of the 2016 General Election poured in in the early hours of May 6th, it was soon clear that the Conservatives had, as expected, lost their majority. But of all the major parties, it was they who had the most reason to be content with the outcome that was emerging. Whilst there had been a swing to Labour, their gains were not on the scale required to turf the Tories out of office, in part thanks to the boundary changes that the government had introduced three years previously. Whilst the election had produced a hung parliament, the chances of a pro-Labour majority were extremely thin. Even a fragile agreement involving Labour, the Lib Dems, the Alternative, and the three nationalist parties that took their seats in the House of Commons would have been short of an effective majority by one MP.
The Conservatives, by contrast, were in a relatively comfortable position. Even if they failed to come to an agreement with the Liberal Democrats (which some thought to be a distinct possibility), it was speculated that they would still pass a Queen’s Speech with the support of the ten unionist MPs from Northern Ireland, plus the four UKIP MPs that had been returned in Kent and Essex, before calling a second election later in the year, where David Cameron’s party would secure an overall majority, just as Harold Wilson had done for Labour in 1974.
It was this possibility, rather than any belief that he was about to enter Downing Street, that led David Miliband to announce that he would remain in post as Labour leader until at least the end of the party conference season. If Britain had to go to the polls again in the near future, so the thinking went, then Labour could not afford to be caught up in a divisive leadership campaign, which ran the risk of alienating voters and handing Cameron the majority that he had just been deprived of. However, there was another school of thought, advanced by the more left wing factions within the Labour church (many of whom grumbled that the party had chosen the wrong brother five years previously) that suggested that Miliband had been badly discredited by the experience of the campaign, and that he could not hope to take Labour back to government in the event of a new election, and therefore a new figurehead was needed at the top. For the time being, the first argument won out, and Miliband remained as Leader of the Opposition.
On the government benches, the Prime Minister emerged from the campaign as a strengthened figure within his party. Cameron had been the undoubted beneficiary of low expectations. Even a month beforehand, when some were calling for his resignation over the scandal regarding his tax affairs, few had expected him to secure such a strong result.. Although the Tories had just secured their lowest share of the vote since they were led by the Duke of Wellington, there was little question over replacing Cameron, at least for now.
Although the Liberal Democrats had lost votes for the third election running, the decline in the Conservative vote share had been enough to see the party gain an additional three MPs. This fact, coupled with a desire for stability in a party that had seen an extremely quick turnover of leaders in recent years, ensured that David Laws remained at the head of his party, as the Lib Dems turned their attention to the process of government formation.
Other leaders, like Sheppard, Farage, and Salmond, had now been elevated to cult figure status among certain sections of the population. In many ways, the gains that Alternative and UKIP made were the story of the election. All three of the ‘traditional’ parties had lost votes, and the Conservatives and Labour had failed to muster even 60% of the vote between them. This breakdown of the two-party system was a far cry from the days when the Tories and Labour could together expect to pull in close to 90% of the vote. But despite this, relatively few seats were lost to the insurgents. Whilst UKIP was able to secure victories in constituencies such as Thurrock and Thanet East, it had also lost some of the seats it had acquired in the final years of the last parliament, such as Heywood and Middleton, and Stourbridge.
The Alternative had made gains over its performance five years previously. Included among their new intake who were already well established as major figures within the alliance- including Caroline Lucas (who won Oxford East at the second time of asking) and Owen Jones (who took Camden Town and Regent’s Park)- as well as some who would become more prominent in the next parliament, such as Clive Lewis (Deptford and Rotherhithe) and Molly Scott Cato (Bristol West).
Respect’s Clive Lewis successfully took Deptford and Rotherhithe off of Labour at the 2016 General Election
However, the surge in support for the Alternative during the campaign had served to raise hopes that the alliance would see more dramatic gains than what they ultimately managed to achieve. When the Alternative reached its polling peak in the middle of April, it was speculated that it could win upwards of 30, or even 40 seats in the new parliament. Set against these lofty expectations, the final total of 18 Seats (13 of which were from Respect, 5 from the Greens) was always going to be considered a somewhat underwhelming return. The alliance had once again fallen foul of first past the post. Whilst they had been able to secure an impressive 15% of the popular vote, like any third party, they had struggled to concentrate this support in specific constituencies. It was perhaps unsurprising, therefore, that the need for electoral reform was frequently mentioned by figures within the Alternative and UKIP on election night and the days that followed it.
Although it would soon become clear that there was little short-term prospect of change in the voting system, there was nevertheless plenty of cause for optimism within the parties that comprised the Alternative. The alliance had made big gains since 2011, and had beat the Liberal Democrats to third place in the popular vote. What was more, the bloc had seen large scale gains in urban constituencies and in the south of England, as it expanded its appeal from outside its traditional base of ethnic minorities to the young and public-sector workers. The fact that it had secured 102 second place finishes across the country showed the potential that the alliance had to become a major third force in parliament. And now, in Tommy Sheppard, it had a popular figurehead with which to advance its agenda.
All of this meant that there was a definite sense of momentum and purpose in Alternative circles in the immediate aftermath of the 2016 General Election, which was very much in contrast to the lack of direction that characterised the Labour Party in these months. As commentators began to process the implications of the election result, some posited that Labour, like the Liberal Party a century before it, had entered a state of inexorable decline. Unable to reconcile the competing demands of its former electoral coalition, it was suggested that it would be displaced by in the coming years by the Alternative within socially liberal urban areas, UKIP in its conservative, post-industrial heartlands, and the Scottish National Party north of the border, allowing the Tories to emerge as the hegemonic force virtually everywhere else. This talk was considered to be a tad fanciful by many, but it reflected a growing sense that the traditional centre-left threaten to find itself engulfed by the rising tide of populism, just as it had been throughout Europe. This was a feeling that was only to become more acute in the months ahead.
David Cameron addresses the nation after the Conservatives emerged as the largest party at the 2016 Election
As the results of the 2016 General Election poured in in the early hours of May 6th, it was soon clear that the Conservatives had, as expected, lost their majority. But of all the major parties, it was they who had the most reason to be content with the outcome that was emerging. Whilst there had been a swing to Labour, their gains were not on the scale required to turf the Tories out of office, in part thanks to the boundary changes that the government had introduced three years previously. Whilst the election had produced a hung parliament, the chances of a pro-Labour majority were extremely thin. Even a fragile agreement involving Labour, the Lib Dems, the Alternative, and the three nationalist parties that took their seats in the House of Commons would have been short of an effective majority by one MP.
The Conservatives, by contrast, were in a relatively comfortable position. Even if they failed to come to an agreement with the Liberal Democrats (which some thought to be a distinct possibility), it was speculated that they would still pass a Queen’s Speech with the support of the ten unionist MPs from Northern Ireland, plus the four UKIP MPs that had been returned in Kent and Essex, before calling a second election later in the year, where David Cameron’s party would secure an overall majority, just as Harold Wilson had done for Labour in 1974.
It was this possibility, rather than any belief that he was about to enter Downing Street, that led David Miliband to announce that he would remain in post as Labour leader until at least the end of the party conference season. If Britain had to go to the polls again in the near future, so the thinking went, then Labour could not afford to be caught up in a divisive leadership campaign, which ran the risk of alienating voters and handing Cameron the majority that he had just been deprived of. However, there was another school of thought, advanced by the more left wing factions within the Labour church (many of whom grumbled that the party had chosen the wrong brother five years previously) that suggested that Miliband had been badly discredited by the experience of the campaign, and that he could not hope to take Labour back to government in the event of a new election, and therefore a new figurehead was needed at the top. For the time being, the first argument won out, and Miliband remained as Leader of the Opposition.
On the government benches, the Prime Minister emerged from the campaign as a strengthened figure within his party. Cameron had been the undoubted beneficiary of low expectations. Even a month beforehand, when some were calling for his resignation over the scandal regarding his tax affairs, few had expected him to secure such a strong result.. Although the Tories had just secured their lowest share of the vote since they were led by the Duke of Wellington, there was little question over replacing Cameron, at least for now.
Although the Liberal Democrats had lost votes for the third election running, the decline in the Conservative vote share had been enough to see the party gain an additional three MPs. This fact, coupled with a desire for stability in a party that had seen an extremely quick turnover of leaders in recent years, ensured that David Laws remained at the head of his party, as the Lib Dems turned their attention to the process of government formation.
Other leaders, like Sheppard, Farage, and Salmond, had now been elevated to cult figure status among certain sections of the population. In many ways, the gains that Alternative and UKIP made were the story of the election. All three of the ‘traditional’ parties had lost votes, and the Conservatives and Labour had failed to muster even 60% of the vote between them. This breakdown of the two-party system was a far cry from the days when the Tories and Labour could together expect to pull in close to 90% of the vote. But despite this, relatively few seats were lost to the insurgents. Whilst UKIP was able to secure victories in constituencies such as Thurrock and Thanet East, it had also lost some of the seats it had acquired in the final years of the last parliament, such as Heywood and Middleton, and Stourbridge.
The Alternative had made gains over its performance five years previously. Included among their new intake who were already well established as major figures within the alliance- including Caroline Lucas (who won Oxford East at the second time of asking) and Owen Jones (who took Camden Town and Regent’s Park)- as well as some who would become more prominent in the next parliament, such as Clive Lewis (Deptford and Rotherhithe) and Molly Scott Cato (Bristol West).
Respect’s Clive Lewis successfully took Deptford and Rotherhithe off of Labour at the 2016 General Election
However, the surge in support for the Alternative during the campaign had served to raise hopes that the alliance would see more dramatic gains than what they ultimately managed to achieve. When the Alternative reached its polling peak in the middle of April, it was speculated that it could win upwards of 30, or even 40 seats in the new parliament. Set against these lofty expectations, the final total of 18 Seats (13 of which were from Respect, 5 from the Greens) was always going to be considered a somewhat underwhelming return. The alliance had once again fallen foul of first past the post. Whilst they had been able to secure an impressive 15% of the popular vote, like any third party, they had struggled to concentrate this support in specific constituencies. It was perhaps unsurprising, therefore, that the need for electoral reform was frequently mentioned by figures within the Alternative and UKIP on election night and the days that followed it.
Although it would soon become clear that there was little short-term prospect of change in the voting system, there was nevertheless plenty of cause for optimism within the parties that comprised the Alternative. The alliance had made big gains since 2011, and had beat the Liberal Democrats to third place in the popular vote. What was more, the bloc had seen large scale gains in urban constituencies and in the south of England, as it expanded its appeal from outside its traditional base of ethnic minorities to the young and public-sector workers. The fact that it had secured 102 second place finishes across the country showed the potential that the alliance had to become a major third force in parliament. And now, in Tommy Sheppard, it had a popular figurehead with which to advance its agenda.
All of this meant that there was a definite sense of momentum and purpose in Alternative circles in the immediate aftermath of the 2016 General Election, which was very much in contrast to the lack of direction that characterised the Labour Party in these months. As commentators began to process the implications of the election result, some posited that Labour, like the Liberal Party a century before it, had entered a state of inexorable decline. Unable to reconcile the competing demands of its former electoral coalition, it was suggested that it would be displaced by in the coming years by the Alternative within socially liberal urban areas, UKIP in its conservative, post-industrial heartlands, and the Scottish National Party north of the border, allowing the Tories to emerge as the hegemonic force virtually everywhere else. This talk was considered to be a tad fanciful by many, but it reflected a growing sense that the traditional centre-left threaten to find itself engulfed by the rising tide of populism, just as it had been throughout Europe. This was a feeling that was only to become more acute in the months ahead.
My mistake, the chapter on government formation is the one after this, and it will follow tomorrow instead.
1997-2007: Tony Blair (Labour)
1997 (Majority) def. John Major (Conservative), Paddy Ashdown (Liberal Democrats)
2001 (Majority) def. William Hague (Conservative), Charles Kennedy (Liberal Democrats)
2006 (Minority with Liberal Democrats confidence) def. Michael Howard (Conservative), Charles Kennedy (Liberal Democrats), Tony Banks & Caroline Lucas/Keith Taylor (RESPECT-Green)
2007-2011: Gordon Brown (Labour minority with Liberal Democrats confidence)
2011-0000: David Cameron (Conservative)
2011 (Majority) def. Gordon Brown (Labour), Nick Clegg (Liberal Democrats), Salma Yaqoob & Caroline Lucas (RESPECT-Green)
2016 (Minority) def. David Miliband (Labour), David Laws (Liberal Democrats), Tommy Sheppard, Caroline Lucas & Clive Pedell (The Alternative), Alex Salmond (SNP), Nigel Farage (UKIP)
1994-2007: Tony Blair
1994 LE def. John Prescott, Margaret Beckett
1997 GE: 418 seats, 43.2%
2001 GE: 413 seats, 40.7%
2006 GE: 310 seats, 32.5%
2007-2011: Gordon Brown
2007 LE def. Unopposed
2011 GE: 246 seats, 29.0%
2011-2011: Alan Johnson
2011-0000: David Miliband
2011 LE def. Ed Miliband, Yvette Cooper, Andy Burham
2016 GE: 239 seats, 27.2%
2003-2006: Michael Howard
2003 LE def. Unopposed
2006 GE: 244 seats, 32.8%
2006-0000: David Cameron
2006 LE def. Liam Fox, David Davis, Ken Clarke
2011 GE: 337 seats, 37.8%
2016 GE: 284 seats, 29.3%
1999-2006: Charles Kennedy
1999 LE def. Simon Hughes, Malcolm Bruce, Jackie Ballard, David Rendel
2001 GE: 52 seats, 18.3%
2006 GE: 51 seats, 19.0%
2006-2007: Menzies Campbell
2006 LE def. Simon Hughes
2007-2011: Nick Clegg
2007 LE def. Steve Webb
2011 GE: 30 seats, 15.7%
2011-2014: Lynne Featherstone
2011 LE def. Danny Alexander
2014-0000: David Laws
2014 LE def.
2016 GE: 25 seats, 12.1%
2004-2006: Tony Banks & Caroline Lucas/Keith Taylor
2004 RES LE def. Salma Yaqoob, George Galloway, Lynne Jones, Yvonne Ridley
2004 GRN LE (F) def. Unopposed
2004 GRN LE (M) def. John Phillips
2006 GE def. 8 seats, 7.0%
2006-2006: Salma Yaqoob & Caroline Lucas/Keith Taylor
2006-2007: Salma Yaqoob & Siân Berry/Keith Taylor
2006 GRN LE (F) def. Unopposed
2006 GRN LE (M) def. Derek Wall
2006 RES LE def. George Galloway, John Rees
2007-2008: Salma Yaqoob & Caroline Lucas/Keith Taylor
2007 GRN LE (F) def. Unopposed
2007 GRN LE (M) def. Darren Johnson, Ashley Gunstock
2008-2012: Salma Yaqoob & Caroline Lucas
2008 GRN LE def. Ashley Gunstock
2011 GE: 8 seats, 6.7%
2012-2012: Linda Smith & Caroline Lucas
2012-2013: Tommy Sheppard & Caroline Lucas
2012 RES LE: George Galloway, Lutfur Rahman, Valerie Wise
2013-0000: Tommy Sheppard, Caroline Lucas & Clive Peddell
2016 GE: 18 seats, 15.1%
1997 (Majority) def. John Major (Conservative), Paddy Ashdown (Liberal Democrats)
2001 (Majority) def. William Hague (Conservative), Charles Kennedy (Liberal Democrats)
2006 (Minority with Liberal Democrats confidence) def. Michael Howard (Conservative), Charles Kennedy (Liberal Democrats), Tony Banks & Caroline Lucas/Keith Taylor (RESPECT-Green)
2007-2011: Gordon Brown (Labour minority with Liberal Democrats confidence)
2011-0000: David Cameron (Conservative)
2011 (Majority) def. Gordon Brown (Labour), Nick Clegg (Liberal Democrats), Salma Yaqoob & Caroline Lucas (RESPECT-Green)
2016 (Minority) def. David Miliband (Labour), David Laws (Liberal Democrats), Tommy Sheppard, Caroline Lucas & Clive Pedell (The Alternative), Alex Salmond (SNP), Nigel Farage (UKIP)
1994-2007: Tony Blair
1994 LE def. John Prescott, Margaret Beckett
1997 GE: 418 seats, 43.2%
2001 GE: 413 seats, 40.7%
2006 GE: 310 seats, 32.5%
2007-2011: Gordon Brown
2007 LE def. Unopposed
2011 GE: 246 seats, 29.0%
2011-2011: Alan Johnson
2011-0000: David Miliband
2011 LE def. Ed Miliband, Yvette Cooper, Andy Burham
2016 GE: 239 seats, 27.2%
2003-2006: Michael Howard
2003 LE def. Unopposed
2006 GE: 244 seats, 32.8%
2006-0000: David Cameron
2006 LE def. Liam Fox, David Davis, Ken Clarke
2011 GE: 337 seats, 37.8%
2016 GE: 284 seats, 29.3%
1999-2006: Charles Kennedy
1999 LE def. Simon Hughes, Malcolm Bruce, Jackie Ballard, David Rendel
2001 GE: 52 seats, 18.3%
2006 GE: 51 seats, 19.0%
2006-2007: Menzies Campbell
2006 LE def. Simon Hughes
2007-2011: Nick Clegg
2007 LE def. Steve Webb
2011 GE: 30 seats, 15.7%
2011-2014: Lynne Featherstone
2011 LE def. Danny Alexander
2014-0000: David Laws
2014 LE def.
2016 GE: 25 seats, 12.1%
2004-2006: Tony Banks & Caroline Lucas/Keith Taylor
2004 RES LE def. Salma Yaqoob, George Galloway, Lynne Jones, Yvonne Ridley
2004 GRN LE (F) def. Unopposed
2004 GRN LE (M) def. John Phillips
2006 GE def. 8 seats, 7.0%
2006-2006: Salma Yaqoob & Caroline Lucas/Keith Taylor
2006-2007: Salma Yaqoob & Siân Berry/Keith Taylor
2006 GRN LE (F) def. Unopposed
2006 GRN LE (M) def. Derek Wall
2006 RES LE def. George Galloway, John Rees
2007-2008: Salma Yaqoob & Caroline Lucas/Keith Taylor
2007 GRN LE (F) def. Unopposed
2007 GRN LE (M) def. Darren Johnson, Ashley Gunstock
2008-2012: Salma Yaqoob & Caroline Lucas
2008 GRN LE def. Ashley Gunstock
2011 GE: 8 seats, 6.7%
2012-2012: Linda Smith & Caroline Lucas
2012-2013: Tommy Sheppard & Caroline Lucas
2012 RES LE: George Galloway, Lutfur Rahman, Valerie Wise
2013-0000: Tommy Sheppard, Caroline Lucas & Clive Peddell
2016 GE: 18 seats, 15.1%