AHQ: Why did the Qing collapse?

The tin and all that.

The more I read, the more it seems the Qing society was actually quite developed financially and culturally.
They seemed well integrated at local levels with world trade, at least on the coast.
It should have been able to adapt and innovate, as it seems they had all the tools.

So, why didn't it? It's kinda baffling. Was it just because the state didn't try to raise more money?

To be clear, not talking about the actual fall in 1911, but more why it slipped through the XIXth century.

Bonus points if you can explain how the Vietnamese army got beaten so easily by the French.
 
The more I read, the more it seems the Qing society was actually quite developed financially and culturally.
They seemed well integrated at local levels with world trade, at least on the coast.
It should have been able to adapt and innovate, as it seems they had all the tools.
I expect someone with a more accurate/nuanced answer will be around shortly, but I
vaguely recall the traditional-lazy-easy-flippant answer being along the lines of
"All the tools except for the one where you go 'maybe there is a better way to do this than we currently do'."
Then there's a lot of boring complicated stuff about politics and economy and stuff.
 
Were hampered by military over extension from the conquests of the 18th century and then not expanding the actual government to meet with the rising population throughout the time period and afterwards. The Manchu ruling class also had a stranglehold over several positions of power, cutting out the Han majority in several key areas for a good chunk of it and leading to a lot of resentment. It was coupled with a lack of leadership that was able to counter the many problems the country faced at this time and a series of bad environmental moments in the 19th century.
 
Were hampered by military over extension from the conquests of the 18th century and then not expanding the actual government to meet with the rising population throughout the time period and afterwards. The Manchu ruling class also had a stranglehold over several positions of power, cutting out the Han majority in several key areas for a good chunk of it and leading to a lot of resentment. It was coupled with a lack of leadership that was able to counter the many problems the country faced at this time and a series of bad environmental moments in the 19th century.
I guess the question becomes why they didn't update their ideology of small government/wealth in the people? Was it that it worked for so long that they didn't have the time to reform in peace by the time the Western(ised) powers came along they didn't have the time to do so properly before external pressures crashed the boat?

Here's a theory: the Qing presided over a time of massive expansion and internal/external expansion (inner highlands, Xinjang, Tibet...). Doing so took a lot of energy and resources while also providing an outlet for existing Chinese technology and organisation. That provided the lack of incentive.

I expect someone with a more accurate/nuanced answer will be around shortly, but I
vaguely recall the traditional-lazy-easy-flippant answer being along the lines of
"All the tools except for the one where you go 'maybe there is a better way to do this than we currently do'."
Then there's a lot of boring complicated stuff about politics and economy and stuff.
I'll be honest, I heard it but I don't like it and it seems very easy. The Qing did preside over innovation and had a vibrant economy. It's also human nature to tinker with stuff and try to improve
 
I guess the question becomes why they didn't update their ideology of small government/wealth in the people? Was it that it worked for so long that they didn't have the time to reform in peace by the time the Western(ised) powers came along they didn't have the time to do so properly before external pressures crashed the boat?

Here's a theory: the Qing presided over a time of massive expansion and internal/external expansion (inner highlands, Xinjang, Tibet...). Doing so took a lot of energy and resources while also providing an outlet for existing Chinese technology and organisation. That provided the lack of incentive.


I'll be honest, I heard it but I don't like it and it seems very easy. The Qing did preside over innovation and had a vibrant economy. It's also human nature to tinker with stuff and try to improve
Well, the 10 Great Campaigns were quite expensive and costly but there's other factors at play even prior to the Century of Humiliation.

A couple off the top of my head would go population growth, rebellions, ethnic tensions, and lack of naval focus:

1. Massive population boom: Due to new crops (from the New World and newer rice crops), newer agricultural practices, and the settling of traditionally underpopulated frontier regions, the Qing presided over the greatest rate of population growth in Chinese history, going from 150 million to over 400 million between 1644 and 1851. This led to major issues regarding arable land usage while the Qing population kept expanding at an unprecedented rate. Add to the mix tensions between various groups in China, like the Hakka with the Cantonese and the Manchu with the rest of the Chinese population, and that makes for a powderkeg, which we saw in the Taiping Rebellion, which further destabilised and decentralised the Qing to the point that it could be seen as one of the nails on the Great Qing's coffin.
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2. Rebellions: As mentioned before, the Taiping Rebellion was catastrophic for the Qing but there were other major revolts prior to the Century of Humiliation, like the earlier Miao Rebellion and the White Lotus Rebellion, that weakened the Qing's hold on various regions while providing the basis for future revolts, like the Taiping Rebellion and later Miao Rebellion. These were a consequence of the above point of population growth vs limited land and the following point of ethnic tensions.

3. Ethnic tensions: The Manchu were not popular with the Han majority and that grew more apparent over the years as times got tougher and the Manchu continued discriminating against the Han, even banning them from Guandong/Manchuria with the White Willow Palisade. They stopped, out of necessity, and were increasingly Sinicized but they remained distinct enough for long enough that they became the target for blame for quite a few things wrong with China. This fueled the flames of rebellions, like the Taiping Rebellion, which was started by a fringe Christian group before great swaths of militant non-Manchu peoples joined in due to the momentum against the Manchu Qing, which further weakened Qing control and sped up their decline.

4. Lack of naval focus: East Asia hadn't pursued great naval innovations with the fervour of nations like the Dutch Republic and England since there wasn't the same incentive for sailing across entire oceans and rough seas for wealth. While the Western European colonial empires needed to cross the Atlantic and Indian Oceans for the riches of the New World and the Orient, East Asia had most of the great wealth they needed right there, in a self-sufficient manner. This has been a trend for centuries, with the Japanese invasion fleets of Korea being ineffective enough to be crushed by Korean fleets a fraction of their numbers (the Korea fleet itself being weaker than the Dutch or English fleets in terms of ship size and firepower). Zheng He's voyages were a great drain on the Ming treasury with not nearly great enough returns to justify the cost and the Ming in general neglected the seas. The Qing took on a similar outlook, not dealing with Pirate King Koxinga for as long as possible, and crushing overextended early European fleets (the Dutch) without gaining many lessons from the encounter. The Qing were innovative in many fields but naval warfare had been neglected by the Chinese empires for centuries at this point and they hadn't the pressures to innovate to the extent that Western European fleets had to, which reflected in the Opium Wars and pretty much every other war involving naval warfare (the Qing had good, European-made ships while fighting the French and Japanese. The naval tradition, or lack thereof, and with the factional conflicts that kept Beiyang and Nanyang fleets from fighting in unison were the real bottleneck to victory). The defeats at sea meant weakened trade and supply routes, which led to concessions, which led to funds being sent to the very entities exploiting China and disruptions in century old industries (like porters, who had to deal with new major entrepots being opened, which saw widespread unemployment) coupled with the free-flow of opium, which led to unrest and militancy by the Han, which meant the Qing's days were limited.

The elements were all there, unfortunately, and a combination of natural disasters, Western interference, and governmental corruption/incompetence at the wrong moments would see the Qing collapse under pressure. Those are a few but it's not like the Qing were completely stagnant or incompetent. It took a lot and a century of humiliation to overthrow them, but the causes of their downfall were there for quite a while. All it took were the right forces to exploit them and the right conditions and then it was a rush towards freefall.
 
1) The Qing certainly was culturally and financially developed, BUT not particularly more so compared with contemporary Mughals or Ottomans - and the latter similarly did not fare too well. I think framing the question like that underestimates the sheer economic and social upheaval that the intrusion of industrialism causes to traditional societies and governance.

Using one example from the Qing: Qing local governance post-Taiping was financed through the li-kin or 'internal tariff', a consequence of the Qing losing tariff autonomy after the Opium Wars. A large portion of these tariffs came from internal waterways, notably the Grand Canal. BUT starting in the 1860s, the arrival of seagoing ships, the expansion of the Treaty Port network into the Yangtze Basin (which paid no likin), and finally the expansion of rail and telegraph posed a fatal challenge to this traditional economic system. As canal freight dried up, the economies built around them fell, compounding the loss of provincial revenue. The result was massive societal change in a short period of time and with no historical precedent on how to deal with it. The consequence was administrative and societal decay, leading to anti-Western movements and provincial autonomy by the 1900s.

A key dynamic of such 'industrial shock' is the slow leeching of power away from the center and towards the periphery. As industrialism remakes economic and social systems, the distribution of power amongst regions changes, government policies start to become out of sync with power realities on the ground, leading to administrative decay. The traditionally landward orientation of the Qing, for example, could not adjust fast enough to the new reality of a wealthier and globally-connected coastal Southern China (particularly distant Guangdong, whose overseas emigrants brought back reformist and later revolutionary ideas).

Neither of these dynamics are unique to the Qing: the late-19thC Ottoman upheavals can be partly attributed to the wrecking of the Levantine textile industry thanks to free trade with Britain, and the Mughals collapsed as increased volumes of European trade shifted power away from the traditional Delhi heartland to the Marathi and Bengali peripheries.

2) Given the above, it's possible to overstate the case for Qing "failure". Throughout the "Tongzhi Restoration" of the 1860s (Self-Strengthening Movement), Westerners were particularly impressed by how the Qing saved itself from near-destruction during the Taiping, Nien, Dungan and Panthay revolts (among others), as well as how quickly its diplomatic corps (Zongli Yamen) inserted itself into diplomatic affairs (particularly with regards to asserting its rights in Korea). The military strength of the Qing during the 1880s and the early 1890s was considered formidable: Russia after the 1881 Ili Crisis constantly fretted about a Qing reconquest of Outer Manchuria, and on the eve of the Sino-Japanese War the Qing had the 8th largest fleet in the world (even after the French destroyed the Nanyang Fleet). I think it was in [Edit: Quest for Power - European Imperialism and the Making of Chinese Statecraft] that said that the only reason why Japan is a "success" and Qing was a "failure" was because Japan won in 1895. And even that conflict was much closer than imagined - Japan's forex and logistics issues were coming sharply to the fore by the time of peace, and a more steady Qing court might have actually limited the physical losses with a scorched-earth policy. (Japan would continue to experience such issues in war right until Pearl Harbor).

Here are some of the achievements of the Qing during the 1860s-1890s:
a) establishing arsenals at Fuzhou and Shanghai, not only arms centers but experiments with heavy industry, industrial mining and later, railroads and telegraphs;
b) building up a diplomatic corps + vocabulary from scratch and successfully negotiating with foreign powers within several years over Korea, Turkestan, Manchuria, Treaty Rights etc etc.
c) building up Western-style economic corporations from scratch and successfully regaining economic control of inland waterways through the China Merchants Steam Navigation Company;
d) importing an impressive amount of ordnance (several hundred thousand rifles in Manchuria alone by 1880s) and building up Asia's largest navy;
e) and of course, doing all this while retaining enough support NOT just with the traditional Han Confucian elite, BUT also with the Mongols, Tibetans, Manchus etc etc.

3) That said, there are clear bureaucratic missteps that the Qing made in its reform effort compared with Japan. Li Hongzhang, the premier statesman in China pushing for reform, was only ever Commissioner for the Northern Ports (there was no chancellor or PM in the Qing until the 1900s), which meant that all of his reform efforts were conducted through informal channels of power (his influence, his ability to insert "Huai" faction people into power, and ultimately his ability to retain favor with Empress Dowager Cixi). Li Hongzhang was never in the center of power in Beijing, but instead issued his orders from Tianjin. His direct influence was only relevant in the coastal provinces of Northern China: he had to rely on allies in the Commissioner for the Southern Ports (which he got until the 1870s) and in the inland provinces (which he never got nor cared about). Li's initiatives were therefore impressive, but piecemeal, provincial and highly dependent on his personal views. Li never paid much attention to military training and "software", a key Qing failure in the Sino-Japanese War. They also inevitably contributed to provincial autonomy.

This also meant that unlike Japan, the Qing did not have a Hirobumi-like figure or genro-like faction that could implement nationwide reforms (even assuming they had the resources to). The equivalent of the genro in Qing China, the Grand Council, was comprised of highly-conservative Manchu elites (though with the occasional semi-reformer like Ronglu or Prince Gong), a consequence of the pre-industrial strength of China's monarchy compared with Japan's. This in turn led to the failure of the Qing, until the Late Qing Reform of the 1900s, to establish centralized agencies for education, security, government-business cooperation and other basic functions that Japan had already adopted early in the Meiji Reforms, which meant that by the 1890s, Japan could harness a far larger proportion of its resources compared with the Qing.
 
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1) The Qing certainly was culturally and financially developed, BUT not particularly more so compared with contemporary Mughals or Ottomans - and the latter similarly did not fare too well. I think framing the question like that underestimates the sheer economic and social upheaval that the intrusion of industrialism causes to traditional societies and governance.
First off, thanks a lot to you and all the others, this is truly passionating.
I guess the big question is thus: the Industrial Shock was also happening in Europe, with some disturbances (the French Revolution, Luddites, Gin Craze, 1848...), but Europe didn't break in the same way.
Now, could this be said that it's because European regimes were propping each other up? After 1815, Europe was, as I recall, fairly stable under authoritarian regimes, and somewhat supporting each other. Can this be contrasted with the external pressures put on the Qing, who had no friendly neighbour facing similar issues?

A key dynamic of such 'industrial shock' is the slow leeching of power away from the center and towards the periphery. As industrialism remakes economic and social systems, the distribution of power amongst regions changes, government policies start to become out of sync with power realities on the ground, leading to administrative decay. The traditionally landward orientation of the Qing, for example, could not adjust fast enough to the new reality of a wealthier and globally-connected coastal Southern China (particularly distant Guangdong, whose overseas emigrants brought back reformist and later revolutionary ideas).
Interesting to point out France went through a massive centralisation movement throughout the XIXth century, and in particular during the IIIrd Republic. I don't know about other countries, although the German parallel comes to mind

I think it was in Li Hung-chang and China's Early Modernization that said that the only reason why Japan is a "success" and Qing was a "failure" was because Japan won in 1895. And even that conflict was much closer than imagined - Japan's forex and logistics issues were coming sharply to the fore by the time of peace, and a more steady Qing court might have actually limited the physical losses with a scorched-earth policy. (Japan would continue to experience such issues in war right until Pearl Harbor).
So, if I read you right, a big issue was with self perception following the defeat?
 
The Qing was a ethnically Manchu based dynasty, already viewed as a foreign blight by the more numerous Han Chinese population. And they where dicks, treating the Han like crap. And then you have a weak bureaucracy (small amount of officers and rampant corruption), a huge size (makes communication difficult), huge population (even a small fraction angry means a lot of people) and ethnic strife. (As mention on how badly the Qing treated the Han.)

Many a part of the Taiping Rebellion where not Christians, or cared for Christianity, or for Hong Xiuquan madness. They all wanted 3 things: The Qing to be gone, land to farm, and rice to eat.
 
First off, thanks a lot to you and all the others, this is truly passionating.
I guess the big question is thus: the Industrial Shock was also happening in Europe, with some disturbances (the French Revolution, Luddites, Gin Craze, 1848...), but Europe didn't break in the same way.
Now, could this be said that it's because European regimes were propping each other up? After 1815, Europe was, as I recall, fairly stable under authoritarian regimes, and somewhat supporting each other. Can this be contrasted with the external pressures put on the Qing, who had no friendly neighbour facing similar issues?

I'd say it was more because Europe had the socio-economic infrastructure in place to absorb the societal shocks wrought by industrialization, e.g. it was easier for them (for economic, technological, institutional etc reasons) to set up factories to absorb excess labor from urbanization. When the Grand Canal got superseded by rail/telegraph, the now-unemployed porters didn't have alternate jobs to go to.

So the question is why rich Chinese didn't immediately invest in Western-style factories: it's been estimated that the income of the Chinese gentry during the 1850s was about 600m silver taels/year. Li Hongzhang certainly tried to get them to do so, with limited success (Kaiping Mines and the China Merchants being the biggest ones). The reasons for this are rich and varied (and include things like geomancy or feng shui), but generally are a) general wariness of investing in new/foreign tech w/o government support; b) a preference for safer investments like land or officialdom; and c) little government support in promotion of industry and infrastructure. By contrast, the Japanese government supported, structured, and supplemented private industrialization, which explains the latter's greater success.

So, if I read you right, a big issue was with self perception following the defeat?
[/QUOTE]

Well certainly post-1911 China had no reason to portray the late Qing as anything but a failure (even as they continued to build on and formalize structures that first had their origins in the Qing). But losing the Sino-Japanese War doesn't necessarily mean that Japan was that far ahead of China in terms of their 'achievements' in facing up to the shocks of the 19thC. The Qing maintained their independence (and even clawed back some economic independence) facing a far more hostile political and institutional environment than Japan, and it's not clear that Japan would have avoided the Qing's OTL fate esp. with Russia had it suffered loss in China (for example, by overplaying its hand and inviting foreign intervention).
 

Kaze

Banned
Population was on the rise to an estimate 430 million people – there was not enough land to go around if population still rose – 50 to 60 % of the land was in the control of rich families who demanded almost 50% of the yield in silver for rent. Included in this was that there was droughts in Honan, flooding in the Yangtze River and other rivers, and famine in Kwangsi dwindling the number of arable land to go around – relief was piecemeal, perfunctory, and was outright being embezzled. This left many displaced peoples seeking work as porters, dock-hands, idlers, rascals, bandits, or “shanghaied” into slavery or deportation to work on the U.S.’s first transcontinental railroad.

Some historians suggest that had there been heavy industry or industrialization as in London or Germany that the dispossessed would have found work instead of joining the Taiping’s rebellion out of desperation – I am not one of them – any student of the European Revolutions of 1848/1849 would actually see that factory workers might be more inspired by Taiping’s Reforms.

The Taiping’s abolition of private ownership of land and property based on the number of people was based on the Chinese work The Rites of Chou – unfortunately the idealistic primitive socialist project was inconsistent with contemporary Confucian ideals and true land reform would not be available until Doctor Sun Yat-sen (pinyin: Sūn Yixiān; 12 November 1866 – 12 March 1925), born merely two years after the fall of the Heavenly Kingdom.

Most westerners think the Middle Kingdom as one race – in fact it is made up of more than 56 recognized races Han Chinese only making up a slim 91% majority. Even among Han there is division – often a Northern Han will call a Southern Han “a dirty dog” and the Southerner will call the northern “an ugly pig” (and sometimes worse terms). One of the least known and sundry duties of the central government is to make sure that the races do not go out and kill each other in some genocidal rage, set out for partition and civil war. Unfortunately, at the time was the helm was the Manchu which was seen by the majority race as an invading upstart. To offset their control, the majority of the government officials were seen as superficial, temporary, irresponsible, corrupt, that the offices were for sale to the highest bidder, and immoral degrading not only the office but the Chinese military reducing the bannermen and Chinese Green Standard Army as impotent.

All taxes, dues, and rents had to be paid in silver taels not in kind to the central government, due to opium and the Opium Wars the exchange rate for copper coins to silver had increased by 100%. The central government also had another illness concerning money – in order to pay the debts owed to the imperialists the Chinese government devalued the currency - the percentage of copper and silver in a coin of 1845 was at least half the percentage in a coin minted two decades prior. Any economist would see this as a recipe for rapid inflation and economic collapse.

But somehow by some miracle, the Qing petered on.
 
@profxyz I'm convinced that there simply wasn't any way for the Qing Dynasty to defeat Japan in the First Sino-Japanese War. One must look at the manner by which the Qing forces conducted the war. For the most part, the Chinese forces,despite having modern equipment,simply did not put up a fight. This is true in most other cases for the rest of the wars with the other great powers.A lot of Chinese troops,especially the officers,simply deserted before the fighting even began. Corruption was also endemic. In the naval battle with Japan,Chinese forces,despite having superior ships,basically fired rounds filled with sand because of corrupt officers.

One must ask beyond the corruption as to why there was little motivation to fight at all.I personally suspect that for the vast majority of the Chinese,the Qing Emperor was just a foreign warlord,a figure who could not inspire patriotism for soldiers to lay down their lives for.
 
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@profxyz I'm convinced that there simply wasn't any way for the Qing Dynasty to defeat Japan in the First Sino-Japanese War. One must look at the conduct by which the Qing forces conducted the war. For the most part, the Chinese forces,despite having modern equipment,simply did not put up a fight. This is true in most other cases for the rest of the wars with the other great powers.A lot of Chinese troops,especially the officers,simply deserted before the fighting even began. Corruption was also endemic. In the navy battle with Japan,Chinese forces,despite having superior ships,basically fired rounds filled with sand because of corrupt officers.

One must ask beyond the corruption as to why there was little motivation to fight at all.I personally suspect that for the vast majority of the Chinese,the Qing Emperor was just a foreign warlord,a figure who could not inspire patriotism for soldiers to lay down their lives for.
I know less about Chinese warfare, but it's striking in the French conquest of Vietnam. You have small troups of 300 soldiers taking fully defended citadels and the Vietnamese being repeatedly defeated. The Vietnamese army should have been modern enough (not spears and javelins by any mean), in good fortifications, against a French army far from home and plagued by diseases.
This always bugged me.
 
The army of the Qing was modern enough to fight against them, but not loyal enough to fight for them. The success of the Xinhai Revolution hinged entirely on the decision of southern provincial and military leaders to secede from the Qing after the Wuchang Uprising, and the Beiyang Army's later decision to defect to the burgeoning Republic.
 
The army of the Qing was modern enough to fight against them, but not loyal enough to fight for them. The success of the Xinhai Revolution hinged entirely on the decision of southern provincial and military leaders to secede from the Qing after the Wuchang Uprising, and the Beiyang Army's later decision to defect to the burgeoning Republic.
Question is why wasn't it loyal enough then?
 
Question is why wasn't it loyal enough then?
There was no nationalism.The emperor was essentially a foreign warlord who can only secure loyalty through reward,punishment or Confucian philosophy which most people couldn’t give a fuck about.
 
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samcster94

Banned
There was no nationalism.The emperor was essentially a foreign warlord who can only secure loyalty through reward,punishment or Confucian philosophy which most people couldn’t give a fuck about.
Indeed. That always struck me as interesting about the Qing(in comparison to earlier dynasties ruled by Han Chinese people).
 
Question is why wasn't it loyal enough then?

There was no nationalism.The emperor was essentially a foreign warlord who can only secure loyalty through reward,punishment or Confucian philosophy which most people couldn’t give a fuck about.

Not sure if I agree with this. Zeng Guofan, Zuo Zongtang, and Dong Fuxiang are premier examples of a trend in which, faced with anti-Qing rebellions such as the Taiping and the Yaqub Beg revolt in the far west, groups of loyalist Chinese were able to organize vast and effective pro-Qing armies. The Qing, even at their absolute nadir, proved remarkably adept at co-opting the talent of loyal Chinese people, who joined the Qing administration (Zeng was made Viceroy of Zhili, the region around Beijing) and frequently adopted younger Qing officials as proteges and successors (Li Hongzhang was a protege of Zeng, and succeeded him as Viceroy of Zhili) who went on to make their own mark on the Qing (Li Hongzhang was one of the driving forces behind the Self-Strengthening movement).

As for why the loyalism of military and provincial leaders in the 1870s became rebellion by the 1910s, I believe the answer lies in 2 factors:
  1. many of the earlier Self-Strengthening advocates being discredited by defeat in the First Sino-Japanese War.
  2. advocates of interaction with foreign nations being discredited by the Eight-Nation Alliance's response to the Boxer Rebellion.
These two defeats essentially convinced the dominant cliques in the Qing that foreigners should be regarded warily, even if it would speed up processes of modernization. They also convinced the modernizers (who were now out of favor in Beijing) that the Qing were an inadequate vessel for modernization (too conservative to truly reform) or for interaction (too weak). The Qing accordingly needed to be replaced with a new form of government. It was this manner of thought that led to the revolutionaries of 1911 achieving such rapid success south of the Yangtze, where many military and provincial leaders had links with Sun Yat-Sen's republican organization or sympathized with him.

However, even in 1911 the Qing might have survived-- the commanders of the Beiyang Army ("Northern Army"), who controlled most of north China between them, did not initially join the southern uprising. However, the commanders (most of whom regarded each other as colleagues, and who had once studied together in the same schools) mostly decided that, rather than throwing China into civil war and weakening it further, it would be more effective to negotiate with the rebels. It was the resulting negotiation that led to the Qing being deposed-- a negotiation that was, depending on one's perspective, born out of nationalism of a kind.
 
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Not sure if I agree with this. Zeng Guofan, Zuo Zongtang, and Dong Fuxiang are premier examples of a trend in which, faced with anti-Qing rebellions such as the Taiping and the Yaqub Beg revolt in the far west, groups of loyalist Chinese were able to organize vast and effective pro-Qing armies. The Qing, even at their absolute nadir, proved remarkably adept at co-opting the talent of loyal Chinese people, who joined the Qing administration (Zeng was made Viceroy of Zhili, the region around Beijing) and frequently adopted younger Qing officials as proteges and successors (Li Hongzhang was a protege of Zeng, and succeeded him as Viceroy of Zhili) who went on to make their own mark on the Qing (Li Hongzhang was one of the driving forces behind the Self-Strengthening movement).

As for why the loyalism of military and provincial leaders in the 1870s became rebellion by the 1910s, I believe the answer lies in 2 factors:
  1. many of the earlier Self-Strengthening advocates being discredited by defeat in the First Sino-Japanese War.
  2. advocates of interaction with foreign nations being discredited by the Eight-Nation Alliance's response to the Boxer Rebellion.
These two defeats essentially convinced the dominant cliques in the Qing that foreigners should be regarded warily, even if it would speed up processes of modernization. They also convinced the modernizers (who were now out of favor in Beijing) that the Qing were an inadequate vessel for modernization (too conservative to truly reform) or for interaction (too weak). The Qing accordingly needed to be replaced with a new form of government. It was this manner of thought that led to the revolutionaries of 1911 achieving such rapid success south of the Yangtze, where many military and provincial leaders had links with Sun Yat-Sen's republican organization or sympathized with him.

However, even in 1911 the Qing might have survived-- the commanders of the Beiyang Army ("Northern Army"), who controlled most of north China between them, did not initially join the southern uprising. However, the commanders (most of whom regarded each other as colleagues, and who had once studied together in the same schools) mostly decided that, rather than throwing China into civil war and weakening it further, it would be more effective to negotiate with the rebels. It was the resulting negotiation that led to the Qing being deposed-- a negotiation that was, depending on one's perspective, born out of nationalism of a kind.
The reason why Zeng Guofan and co. fought the Taiping rebellion had a lot more to do with the fact that the Taiping rebellion threatened their property,class and the traditional order more than anything else.If the Taiping Rebellion was actually sane,a lot of the men you’ve mentioned might have actually defected to the Taiping Rebellion.After the Taiping rebellion ended,Zeng Guofan’s subordinates actually advocated for the overthrow of the Qing Dynasty.When actually used against foreign armies,the same armies that put down the Taiping Rebellion proved to be a fairly pathetic force even when given modern equipment.
 
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The reason why Zeng Guofan and co. fought the Taiping rebellion had a lot more to do with the fact that the Taiping rebellion threatened their property,class and the traditional order more than anything else.If the Taiping Rebellion was actually sane,a lot of the men you’ve mentioned might have actually defected to the Taiping Rebellion.After the Taiping rebellion ended,Zeng Guofan’s subordinates actually advocated for the overthrow of the Qing Dynasty.When actually used against foreign armies,the same armies that put down the Taiping Rebellion proved to be a fairly pathetic force even when given modern equipment.

And even then, a lot of people who joined the Taiping Rebellion where not Christians, or cared for Christianity, or for Hong Xiuquan madness. They all wanted 3 things: The Qing to be gone, land to farm, and rice to eat.


It just goes to show how many truly hated the Qing was where by the Han.
 
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