I don't get the logic in this.
The Baltic States are not occupied, so when the Soviet Union collapses, they can't use that as an argument for leaving the Soviet Union... Even though they were never occupied according to your scenario and thus would not be a part of the Soviet Union in the first place.
What?
I wrote that very weirdly, thank you for pointing that out. Yes, if the Baltic states weren't illegally occupied, then the soviet union would not have collapsed, or at least not have collapsed due to that, at the very least.