President Hull 1940

  • Thread starter Deleted member 109224
  • Start date

Deleted member 109224

What if Roosevelt hadn't run for a third term and Cordell Hull had succeeded him in 1940?
 

David T

It is arguable that after FDR, Hull would have been the Democrats' strongest candidate in 1940. But he did have some disadvantages: (1) age (he would be 70 by Election Day 1940); (2) FDR had mixed feelings about him--he appreciated that Hull would carry on FDR's internationalist foreign policy but was less certain about Hull's attitude toward the New Deal; and (3) perhaps most important, Hull (though he didn't like the idea of a third term) was reluctant to run, publicly disclaimed any interest in the position, did not seek to accumulate delegates (unlike Farley) and discouraged (though he did not prevent) supporters from advancing his name.

Another way Hull might have become president would be by accepting the Democratic nomination for the vice presidency, as FDR urged him to do. But Hull turned this down; if he had some interest in the presidential nomination, he had none at all in the vice-presidential, and thought he could be much more useful as Secretary of State.
 

Seandineen

While he would not have endorsed intergration, would Cordell have tried to make separate but equal closer to reality? He felt in faultering steps, “The new deal has brought the negro into the political sunlight”.
 

David T

Seandineen said:
While he would not have endorsed intergration, would Cordell have tried to make separate but equal closer to reality? He felt in faultering steps, “The new deal has brought the negro into the political sunlight”.
Click to expand...

Hull was not a race-baiter (and Tennessee was more immune to them than the Deep South) but neither would he be willing to take risks for integration that after all FDR himself would not take. If you were going to help the Allies win the war, you needed the support of southern segregationist Democrats in Congress.
 

Seandineen

That’s why I thought he might try to do what James Byrnes did, and equalize southern African American schools within the separate system. I know he told Vice President garner that something should be done to ensure greater flexibility. That being said, you are right he is not going to do what Truman did, let alone Johnson.
 

1940LaSalle

For the sake of discussion, let's assume that Hull gets the '40 Dem nomination. His running mate would almost have to be someone from the northeast as a balancing ploy. And that's why I think a Hull-led ticket would have James Farley as the VP nominee. Farley would be entirely acceptable to FDR, and the northeastern bosses (e.g., Hague; Curley). I maintain that any potential loss of votes in the Bible Belt attributable to a Catholic on the ticket would be offset by a southerner leading the ticket. But that may not be the primary consideration.

African-Americans will have just recently come over to the Dems in sizable numbers given the New Deal. What will be the reaction given a presidential nominee from the south (OK, not hard-core south like MS or GA, but still...): will they shift back to the GOP? To hold on to these new Dem voters, Hull will have to make some significant concessions to win their trust. While he's not a race-baiter, and was unquestionably a man of integrity, I have to wonder how far he would be willing to go in this regard.

Now, about the GOP nominee: that Hull was an internationalist is well established. That leads me to think that the battle for the GOP nomination will still largely go as we knew it IOTL; i.e., Willkie is the GOP standard-bearer (I wonder if he might somehow persuade Dewey to be his running mate, since Charles McNary was rather reluctant IOTL? Might be feasible since Willkie was originally from IN (Elwood, specifically) and could have shifted his residency back to Indiana if it looked like Dewey might be interested to avoid the prohibition against both ends of the ticket from the same state.)

So, we come down to election day 1940: FDR will bring all the firepower he can to bear on the election. Meanwhile, the GOP raises (valid, IMO) questions about Hull's age and health: the last president to be that old when taking office was William Henry Harrison, although the analogy isn't really valid. At the same time, the black community may well shift back to the GOP, preferring to err on the side of caution: Hull's stances on race and segregation aren't that well known but his origins in the mid-south are. Long story short, look for the election to be a squeaker of the worst sort, probably not decided until well into Wednesday, 6 November or even Thursday, 7 November. I'd guess that FDR's influence might pull Hull through--barely. It would be the closest election since 1916, and maybe the closest since some time in the 19th century. Hull wins with 290 electoral votes to Willkie's 241.

OK, Cordell Hull is in the White House. FDR has already pledged publicly to support / help the new administration in any way possible as the situations with Japan and Germany deteriorate. As tensions mount, the effects on President Hull become more and more apparent: the photographers and movie camermen who were able to gloss over FDR's physical inabilities can't do that with the deepening signs of stress on Hull's face, or his overall loss of weight. The situation is obviously taking a substantial toll. There's something of a bounce-back, ironically, after Pearl Harbor since then the uncertainty and waiting are done, but that doesn't last long with news from the Philippines. Hull's health is declining, only a year into the presidency. The fall of Corregidor on 6 May 1942 is apparently too much: Hull has a severe heart attack, and dies three days later.

James Farley becomes the 33rd president of the United States.
 
Last edited:

1940LaSalle

Seandineen said:
Would Jim find a place for Joe Kennedy since His Eldest had carried water for him?
Click to expand...
If he does, Farley will have to keep Kennedy on a short leash and place him somewhere that he's not apparently wielding significant power. Otherwise, the hard core anti-Catholics of the Bible Belt (Ian Paisley's spiritual/intellectual cousins) would scream about "papist government" and the next thing you know, you have the Dixiecrats in 1944 instead of 1948, and Farley is out of office, with Thomas Dewey as the 34th president.

Now, assuming Farley is astute enough to try to repay his political debts by including Joe Kennedy in his administration, he'd probably put him as the contemporary equivalent of today's chief of staff, or in a seemingly innocuous Cabinet post like Interior. Doesn't mean he doesn't have the president's ear; it's just more covert. But no matter how you slice it, both Farley and Kennedy will have to watch their steps. The GOP won't play the religious bias card, but southern Democrats will.
 

Seandineen

Perhaps some of the other new deal paldians, tommy chorcan, and some urban style machine enforcers could take on a larger role, Crump and Kelly for example
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top
Top