DBWI what if the great nationalization doesn't happen

[West]

When the great Recession of 08 happened the Chinese government responded to it...badly.

All foriegn assets in china were seized and nationalized, factories, IP, money, property if it was in china it got seized by the government, there was no compensation for this seizure the explanation was that this was china had a right to seize the property in light of the century of humilation.

They then placed a 300% tarriff on all goods made outside of china....

But what if this didn't happen what if the great nationalization didn't happen what would the world look like today?

 

[overoceans]

Well, Beijing, Washington, New York, London, New Delhi, Pyeongyang, Seoul, and the Saudi oil fields would probably all still be standing and radiation-free.

(You can take that as an OOC joke if you want; though I'd be curious to see a less drastic alternative)

 

[West]

As funny as the joke was a lot of people are still angry about the great nationalization, and any ways the gas crunch wasn't that bad.

 

[FillyofDelphi]

As funny as the joke was a lot of people are still angry about the great nationalization, and any ways the gas crunch wasn't that bad.

Come on; it was only a "Gas Crunch" relative to petrolium prices we have today. China cutting themselves out of the international commodity market by their self-destructive isolationism lead to a nice glut in global oil supplies that have kept fuel costs (and thus the cost of everything else) at steady, reasonable levels for decades now... though I really don't know how things are within the Hermit Commune. From what I've heard, though, Beijing probably would be in better shape if she'd gotten hit by an atomic bomb... at least then she'd be able to recover rather than sinking down with the national economic collapse.

 

[Anchises]

When the great Recession of 08 happened the Chinese government responded to it...badly.

All foriegn assets in china were seized and nationalized, factories, IP, money, property if it was in china it got seized by the government, there was no compensation for this seizure the explanation was that this was china had a right to seize the property in light of the century of humilation.

They then placed a 300% tarriff on all goods made outside of china....

But what if this didn't happen what if the great nationalization didn't happen what would the world look like today?

Yeah, the Recession is what apologists like to use an excuse. The actual reason for the Great Nationalization were decade long inter-party fights in the CPC.

The Chinese economic miracle was already dying, when the Neomaoists under Bo Xilai started dominating the party.

2004: Initiative for Harmony and Discipline (a ton of right leaning party members were arrested in the massive anti-corruption drives)
2005: Initiative for Security (massively increased the security apparatus and placed it firmly under control of the hard left)
2007: Initiaive for Unity (foreign companies were subjected to blatant industrial espionage and a lot of foreign assets already were confiscated in "National Security Trials")

In late 2007 the rating agencies already were drastically downgrading the PRC and economic indicators made it obvious that capital was leaving China in a steady and growing stream. The process that culminated in Vietnam, Burma, Thailand and North Korea becoming the "little Sweatshops" alread had started in 2006/2007.

The Great Nationalization simply was a gamble. The Neomaoists hoped that the shock of a rapid close off would collapse the already faltering world economy. This was obviously a missplaced hope, sure we had a devastating new Great Depression but the West has regenerated in 2017 while China is looking more and more like a black hole.

 

[Colonel Zoidberg]

Well, Beijing, Washington, New York, London, New Delhi, Pyeongyang, Seoul, and the Saudi oil fields would probably all still be standing and radiation-free.

(You can take that as an OOC joke if you want; though I'd be curious to see a less drastic alternative)

I can see China, the US, Korea and maaaaaaaaaaybe the UK or another European power getting swept up in this, but who the actual fuck brings fucking India into this, at least on a “turn New Delhi into a fucking crater” level?

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

I can see China, the US, Korea and maaaaaaaaaaybe the UK or another European power getting swept up in this, but who the actual fuck brings fucking India into this, at least on a “turn New Delhi into a fucking crater” level?

China had won a border war with India back in the 1950s. It was moment of glory the Maoists tried to relive.

 

[Colonel Zoidberg]

China had won a border war with India back in the 1950s. It was moment of glory the Maoists tried to relive.

No shit, huh? Did not know that - I knew China and India were never really drinking buddies but always bought they kind of had their own fish to fry.

Of course, that’s contingent on China going full-on crazy fuck, which I guess is kind of the premise of the TL.

But that begs this question - if China is going balls-out and turning New Delhi into a steaming pile of nuclear hell, how come Japan gets spared? If China has a raging hate-boner for India, you can bet they have one for Japan ten times as much.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

At the millennium China had replaced Japan as the largest economy in Asia. Had the progressives (they were not conservatives) dominated China's policy it's quite possible China would be firmly set as the second economy of the world by 2025. Perhaps earlier.

 

[Vuu]

Who says the Chinese did it, and who says it was only those cities

But we'd have functioning countries outside of Eastern Europe - don't be confused by Euroatlantic propaganda that "the west has regenerated". Berlin looks like a slum in Bangladesh, and I travelled to the Americas. Not as bad as prewar Somalia, but just as fractured. Saw Appalachian slavers raid one of the innumerable ephemeral leftist communes in front of my eyes

 

[overoceans]

But that begs this question - if China is going balls-out and turning New Delhi into a steaming pile of nuclear hell, how come Japan gets spared? If China has a raging hate-boner for India, you can bet they have one for Japan ten times as much.

(Okay, this is still OOC, right, because I don't think the imagined timeline involves a nuclear war so far, does it?)

I was thinking that since India has nukes, and a more recent history of solid-ground territorial disputes with China, something might come up in the event of China challenging the whole world to a fight.

Japan, by contrast, is non-nuclear, and no land disputes with China, so I surmised that they'd probably just let their western allies pound the shit out of China, in the hopes of getting what they want that way. Though I guess the sheer wackiness of the OP's scenario might prompt them to do a quickie shredding of the Peace Constitution once and for all.

 

[West]

Who says the Chinese did it, and who says it was only those cities

But we'd have functioning countries outside of Eastern Europe - don't be confused by Euroatlantic propaganda that "the west has regenerated". Berlin looks like a slum in Bangladesh, and I travelled to the Americas. Not as bad as prewar Somalia, but just as fractured. Saw Appalachian slavers raid one of the innumerable ephemeral leftist communes in front of my eyes

And it looks like we have another conspiracy theroist from the north korea here.

Im sorry but the government lied to you, there was no nuclear war, and the Appalacian war was just a cheesy B movie made during the second great recession it didn't actually happen.

 

[overoceans]

and the Appalacian war was just a cheesy B movie made during the second great recession it didn't actually happen.

Yeah, some of those faked atrocity videos that the feds were circulating were just hilarious. Appalachian yokels seizing control of the cities and forcing people at gunpoint to marry their own cousins?! That was just SO much milking of urban liberal paranoia.

 

[FillyofDelphi]

At the millennium China had replaced Japan as the largest economy in Asia. Had the progressives (they were not conservatives) dominated China's policy it's quite possible China would be firmly set as the second economy of the world by 2025. Perhaps earlier.

Even with the One Child Policy still in effect? I mean, I don't see them abandoning it in order to "create a domestic market" for former exports in an environment of continued economic growth and the generally striking birth rates/desire to have many children that comes along with it throughout the rest of the world. I mean, it dosent take a genius to realize that 29 years after implementing it they were starting to run short on 28 year olds...

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

Even with the One Child Policy still in effect? I mean, I don't see them abandoning it in order to "create a domestic market" for former exports in an environment of continued economic growth and the generally striking birth rates/desire to have many children that comes along with it throughout the rest of the world. I mean, it dosent take a genius to realize that 29 years after implementing it they were starting to run short on 28 year olds...

The economic outcome of declining number of children per adult (not per married or breeding couple) is a higher income percapita, due to less child rearing time, the more money spent on consumer goods vs child support basics.