1969 Chinese Incursion into Vietnam

[AHFan]

My ATL involves the Chinese invading North Vietnam in 1969 as an extension of the 1969 Sino-Soviet border clash. The Chinese leadership becomes concerned with Soviet naval activity on their southern border. The Chinese leadership also recognizes that the United States is growing weary of the Asian conflict and may withdraw, leaving Vietnam to become a united Soviet "colony" to their south.

The Chinese advise the Americans of the oncoming assault, invoking the Cuban Missile Crisis, with the Chinese agent advising American diplomats "Imagine Soviet troops 12 FEET from your border!!" US diplomats pass along the information to the US military. US military forces are advised of an impending Chinese invasion with clear wording "The assault is believed to involve a punitive assault against North Vietnamese forces" US forces are advised to accept any surrendering North Vietnamese soldiers as US POW's and to hold them. They are not to be turned over to Chinese forces. US naval forces are instructed to hold fire against any Chinese naval forces.

On March 20, 1969, the Chinese launch an invasion consisting of 150,000 troops supported by armor and support units cross the border and invade North Vietnam. North Vietnam rushes approximately 65,000 troops to meet the invading force. And a large number of regular forces were sent to defend Hanoi. The sheer size of the Chinese invasion force enabled it to crush North Vietnamese resistance. Soviet advisors asked Moscow for guidance of how to proceed as did Soviet naval forces. US military commanders were in constant communication with the Nixon Administration to establish new military guidelines involving two simultaneous conflicts... one that involved US forces with a second conflict that did not involve US forces as of this time.



Some points of discussion:

1. How would the Chinese invasion in 1969 alter US strategy? What would the impact be on the US peace movement? How would this alter the 1972 US Presidential election?

2. Do we believe that such an action would exacerbate the 1969 Sino-Soviet border conflict? If so, to what degree?

3. What in the heck do US forces do now? First, the US was fighting a guerilla war. Domestic policy inhibited the US from invading North Vietnam, now we see North Vietnam having to fight a two front war against two superpowers. We see the possibility of a Sino-Soviet nuclear conflict. Does the US withdraw from the area? Does the US consolidate South Vietnam? Does the US proceed to invade North Vietnam?

4. The Soviet Union would have a hard time supplying North Vietnam as their shipping routes would involve running a gauntlet of US and Chinese naval forces.

Please let me know your thoughts. This is a topic I had been thinking about for a while.

 

[Namayan]

Some points of discussion:

1. How would the Chinese invasion in 1969 alter US strategy? What would the impact be on the US peace movement? How would this alter the 1972 US Presidential election?

2. Do we believe that such an action would exacerbate the 1969 Sino-Soviet border conflict? If so, to what degree?

3. What in the heck do US forces do now? First, the US was fighting a guerilla war. Domestic policy inhibited the US from invading North Vietnam, now we see North Vietnam having to fight a two front war against two superpowers. We see the possibility of a Sino-Soviet nuclear conflict. Does the US withdraw from the area? Does the US consolidate South Vietnam? Does the US proceed to invade North Vietnam?

4. The Soviet Union would have a hard time supplying North Vietnam as their shipping routes would involve running a gauntlet of US and Chinese naval forces.

Please let me know your thoughts. This is a topic I had been thinking about for a while.

If history as basis of Vietnam-China military conflict, China would lose this conflict. North Vietnam had better generals and more determined soldiers than China or the USA at this time around.

The Sino-Soviet split has been happening long before 1969. If 1969 was a fullscale China-Soviet war, China will not have a chance winning one on one due to the fewer nuclear weapons and weaker industrial capability of China vs Soviets.

US may take this as an opportunity to either side with China or to take the opportunity to expel Mao and put China back into a democratic state into it. This will depend on how Chiang will lobby it to the US.

You also have to realize China aint yet a Superpower in 1969. Cultural Revolution just ended, which weakened Chinese economy. China was still the Sick Man of Asia which is very far from superpower status.

 

[Delta Force]

Taking over the DRV will make the Soviets angry, but the Americans furious. It could actually drive the Americans and Soviets together, at least when it comes to containing the PRC.

 

[Daffy Duck]

Question

I know next to nothing about the conflict in OTL but weren't the Chinese sending help and personnel to help the North in our time?

 

[BigDave1967]

The USSR was allied to North Vietnam. I wonder if the USSR would take a chance and try to get revenge on China by grabbing the disputed sections of the USSR-Chinese border with a serious effort with large amounts of troops? The USA(IMO) would probably sit back and watch the two giants fight it out.

 

[Dunning Kruger]

The US didnt even recognize the PRC as the government of China, so this seems a little unlikely. Also, per Wikipedia:

The PRC's involvement in the Vietnam War began in 1949, when mainland China was reunified under communist rule. The Communist Party of China provided material and technical support to the Vietnamese communists. In the summer of 1962, Mao Zedong agreed to supply Hanoi with 90,000 rifles and guns free of charge. After the launch of the American "Rolling Thunder" mission, China sent anti-aircraft units and engineering battalions to North Vietnam to repair the damage caused by American bombing, rebuild roads and railroads, and perform other engineering work, freeing North Vietnamese army units for combat in the South. Between 1965 and 1970, over 320,000 Chinese soldiers fought the Americans alongside the North Vietnamese Army, reaching a peak in 1967, when 170,000 troops served in combat. China lost 1,446 troops in the Vietnam War. The US lost 58,159 in combat against the NVA, Vietcong, and their allied forces, including the Chinese.

 

[AHFan]

The USSR was allied to North Vietnam. I wonder if the USSR would take a chance and try to get revenge on China by grabbing the disputed sections of the USSR-Chinese border with a serious effort with large amounts of troops? The USA(IMO) would probably sit back and watch the two giants fight it out.

I agree with this assessment. It would be difficult for the United States. What could / would they do? Despite their considerable military power, it would be difficult to get involved? Would the US suddenly consider the USSR to be an ally for the second time in 35 years? If so, the US anti-war movement would go ballistic "We went to war to stop the domino theory and now WE are a domino?"

My guess, is that the US would pull back and stabilize South Vietnam and try to reduce the influence of the Viet Cong. But I have no facts to substantiate this. This is a guess on my part.

I know next to nothing about the conflict in OTL but weren't the Chinese sending help and personnel to help the North in our time?

I also do not know a lot about the OTL. I do know that there are very knowledgeable folks on this site (not me.. I meant other people) so I was curious about these episodes in history.

I believe that you are correct, that China was sending supplies. However, it is my understanding that North Vietnam was a key Soviet ally. The Chinese did invade North Vietnam in the late 1970s.

 

[ObssesedNuker]

The Chinese were sending supplies, but a lot fewer and a lot more reluctantly then the Soviets were. The Chinese also routinely stole from the best bits of Soviet supply trains destined for North Vietnam that crossed their territory. Basically, the Chinese and North Vietnamese relations were pretty frigid at this point although China would probably be more concerned with the giant bear to its north then any hypothetical threat to its south.

 

[Paladin]

If this did in fact happen, it could also see a premature rise of Pol Pot, since he was a Chinese client. Now there's something scary.

 

[Namayan]

If this did in fact happen, it could also see a premature rise of Pol Pot, since he was a Chinese client. Now there's something scary.

Pol Pot was already General Secretary of Commies in Cambodia since 1963. So I see no reason why a 1969 PoD would change this.

 

[Paul V McNutt]

The US would take advantage of a distracted North Vietnam. tTroops and supplies would go North to fight the Chinese.

 

[Paladin]

Pol Pot was already General Secretary of Commies in Cambodia since 1963. So I see no reason why a 1969 PoD would change this.

I mean that it might push him into undisputed power over Cambodia earlier. He didn't beat the Khmer Republic until 1975. Here, he might be able to do it much earlier.

 

[Blackfox5]

This is Richard Nixon's wet dream.

He can use the Chinese intervention in North Vietnam to push North Vietnam to agree to a real peace with South Vietnam. A real concerted effort by US Army and ARVN troops can probably eliminate the weakened PAVN forces in South Vietnam. Nixon can then threaten an additional escalation if North Vietnam does not make peace, and offer aid to help them against China if they do make peace.

Since a Chinese attack on North Vietnam ends much of the supply route going into North Vietnam from China, Hanoi will likely be desperate for peace.

Nixon can probably claim to have won the war and begin pulling out many US troops. However, he'll likely also be able to secure guarantees for continued US support to South Vietnam in case of subsequent Chinese attack.

Future North Vietnamese attacks on the South is unlikely as long as China is potentially hostile, which is probably the entirety of the Mao era, and even afterwards Hanoi will be reluctant to move south just in case China again decides to attack. It'll take a long time to rebuild confidence. This probably gives South Vietnam 10-20 years of peace. It coheses into a viable state.

In addition, the US can accelerate its wooing of China against the Soviet Union. China is fighting two of America's enemies. A Nixon visit to China could happen much earlier ITTL.

With an early end to the Vietnam War and opening up of China in 1970, Nixon's popularity skyrockets and his reelection is assured. Republicans might do better in the 1970 elections although probably still remain the minority party in both houses. Interesting to speculate whether Nixon is still so paranoid that the Watergate break in still happens.

 

[Paul V McNutt]

I mean that it might push him into undisputed power over Cambodia earlier. He didn't beat the Khmer Republic until 1975. Here, he might be able to do it much earlier.

ITTL Pol Pot does not take power. As Blackfox 5 said there is an earlier end to the war and no invasion of Cambodia.

 

[Paul V McNutt]

With no Vietnam War, George McGovern does not get the nomination. Nixon on has a stronger opponent but is in a better position in 1972. If there is no anti war movement is there a Watergate?