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AndyC: this cartoon was made in honour of the recent meteorit strike in Russia. Couldn't resist. ...
As my younger brother used to say when he was two:
"Poor dog!"
I haven't done the slightest research yet to determine how much payload Atlantis loaded with 4 astronauts and a maximum of rescue supplies could lift, nor how many days for 11 astronauts that would buy stranded in orbit (in the worst case contingency that Atlantis winds up just as disabled as Columbia). And covering for that worst case would involve bringing up supplies to try and fix the wings. But with launch deadline Valentine's Day 2003, I don't think much research could be done to optimize those supplies.
One shouldn't underestimate NASA Tiger Teams in Apollo 13 mode though.
Of course for Columbia, an even worse case than Atlantis arriving with a ding in its own wing would be Atlantis not coming on time at all; I presume this is what the MOOSE and other supply options being considered are for, a fallback in case Atlantis can't launch (or blows up trying to...
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I personally don't see the serious problem in "last mile" delivery of payloads by Ariane or other rockets from Vandenberg (well I suppose Vberg is out because the only clear launch range is south thus they can't launch east without risking a crash over inhabited land to the east) or Japan's pad or Canaveral itself--does that exhaust the list by the way?
Columbia can maneuver to intercept payloads that are not launched precisely to her orbit. It's not so much last mile as last 100 feet that is the problem, obviously it would be a daredevil stunt to try to catch the payload in her bay! Someone has to EVA out to snare the cargo and then very carefully haul it in, and in the last 2 meters risk getting squished, and there are only 2 EVA suits, so that's the limit of the size of the team to do it. And if they get squished, no supplies for the rest so they all die anyway. OK, I see a problem.
It's just that if the alternative is they all asphyxiate anyway, I think they'd be willing to chance it.
So not option A, but I'd think NASA should jump at the chance to pre-empt those other rockets and load them up with rescue packages and prep them to launch if Atlantis encounters any hitches. And hold one ready in case anything prevents Atlantis from making it up all the way after it attempts a launch.
Too bad no one has ever tested MOOSE, it sounds wacky but it was a serious proposal, meant for precisely contingencies like this.
Though sidebar, it couldn't have saved either the Challenger crew nor the OTL Columbia blithely deorbiting into certain disaster, because even if everyone is fully suited up during launch and landing, it takes time to deploy the MOOSE system, nor is it meant for ejecting into a reentry plasma stream; one starts out in vacuum.
The best system I can imagine to protect astronauts in case of a very wide range of disasters is for them to be crammed into a minimum-volume escape capsule during all launches and landings, fully suited up of course (so a bigger volume than for people in shirtsleeves). I look at the noses of spacecraft like the Orbiter and the HL-20 and wonder, why not a capsule there, one with a hatch in its heatshield? And a Mercury/Apollo type LAS rocket tower on it, to be ejected once launch passes a critical point.
If this had been the Orbiter design I think both crews lost OTL would have survived.
I'm told the mass penalty is too great but I have yet to see a study of precisely the kind of system I am talking about.
Also perhaps the nose of an Orbiter or other spaceplane is not the very best place to ride out nominal reentries, as it gets the brunt of reentry heating. But if it could be doable, I think of the failure to design that way as the biggest bit of hubris in the OTL STS program.
